2022 NBA Mock Draft

[JasonEvans]

Well, ESPN sure liked what it saw from Trevor Keels on Tuesday. The draft gurus at the Worldwide Leader have moved Keels from a late 2nd round pick all the way up to the lottery. He goes from #51 on their big board to #14. Wow!

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...mpions-classic

Keels looked like a lottery pick In Madison Square Garden, and the fact that coaches rave about his toughness, approach to the game and focus makes him even more attractive to NBA teams. The only pause teams are likely to have is the simple fact that there aren't many NBA guards with Keels' powerful, thick frame. How will his power-based downhill attacks translate against rangier defenders? Is he a knockdown enough of a shooter to play a Desmond Bane-type of role as a spot shooter and occasional secondary ball handler?

At 6-5, 225 pounds with a 6-6 wingspan, Keels' closest physical comparisons range from Dillon Brooks to Sterling Brown to Bane to Lu Dort. Body type aside, Keels can flat out play. He isn't afraid of the bright lights, he's an energetic defender, he has an excellent feel for the game, and he looks poised for an all-conference type of season under coach Mike Krzyzewski, which would surely earn him looks throughout the lottery, especially with so many NBA eyeballs on Banchero.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Four 1st rounders in the latest mock draft:

2. Paolo Banchero
14. Trevor Keels
24. Mark Williams
25. AJ Griffin

Interesting to see Keels jump up that high and Griffin fall from mid-lottery to borderline 1st rounder. All after 1 game.

At any rate, I think it's safe to say Duke will break its streak of two years without a lottery pick next summer and may have a number of draft night celebrations.

If Moore continues to look as poised and confident while adding in a 3-point shot (and limits the cramping), I could see him appearing in the 2nd round of mock drafts.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Four 1st rounders in the latest mock draft:

2. Paolo Banchero
14. Trevor Keels
24. Mark Williams
25. AJ Griffin

Interesting to see Keels jump up that high and Griffin fall from mid-lottery to borderline 1st rounder. All after 1 game.

At any rate, I think it's safe to say Duke will break its streak of two years without a lottery pick next summer and may have a number of draft night celebrations.

If Moore continues to look as poised and confident while adding in a 3-point shot (and limits the cramping), I could see him appearing in the 2nd round of mock drafts.

It makes sense for Griffin. Nothing we saw on Tuesday screams 'lottery pick'.

It's early. It's a long season. But if ESPN (and other vendors) are going to do mock drafts this early, then it makes sense to have Griffin fall from the lottery.

[AGDukesky]

I know you can’t teach being 7’0” but Williams did not look like a first rounder on Tuesday. If he ends the year like last season, then I can see it.

[Billy Dat]

It makes sense for Griffin. Nothing we saw on Tuesday screams 'lottery pick'.

It's early. It's a long season. But if ESPN (and other vendors) are going to do mock drafts this early, then it makes sense to have Griffin fall from the lottery.

I thought this was a telling comment, an indication that he wasn't lighting the world on fire at practice even before he got hurt.

"His transition to the college game has been even slower than expected in the preseason, a perception felt even prior to Griffin's injury."

And, naturally, just to keep DBR a-buzz

"One of the younger freshmen in the class, not turning 19 until late August, Griffin might be a prime candidate to consider the virtues of a sophomore season, especially with NIL agreements now providing an opportunity to make money while in college."

[AGDukesky]

I thought this was a telling comment, an indication that he wasn't lighting the world on fire at practice even before he got hurt.

"His transition to the college game has been even slower than expected in the preseason, a perception felt even prior to Griffin's injury."

And, naturally, just to keep DBR a-buzz

"One of the younger freshmen in the class, not turning 19 until late August, Griffin might be a prime candidate to consider the virtues of a sophomore season, especially with NIL agreements now providing an opportunity to make money while in college."

That is interesting. I know he has been hit hard by injuries but the video I saw of him showed great size and athleticism without a lottery pick skill level. Sort of reminds me of Kidd-Gilchrist but a bit more raw. He has the genes and maybe an extra healthy year in college would make sense.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I thought this was a telling comment, an indication that he wasn't lighting the world on fire at practice even before he got hurt.

"His transition to the college game has been even slower than expected in the preseason, a perception felt even prior to Griffin's injury."

And, naturally, just to keep DBR a-buzz

"One of the younger freshmen in the class, not turning 19 until late August, Griffin might be a prime candidate to consider the virtues of a sophomore season, especially with NIL agreements now providing an opportunity to make money while in college."

Oh boy. Don't tease DBR

Alan Griffin, AJ's brother, went pro last year and was undrafted and is now in the G-League. I assume AJ will get the same 'experts' as Alan. To me, regardless of performance, AJ is the second likeliest to go after Paolo. His brother's experience was pretty telling.

[JasonEvans]

Alan Griffin, AJ's brother, went pro last year and was undrafted and is now in the G-League. I assume AJ will get the same 'experts' as Alan. To me, regardless of performance, AJ is the second likeliest to go after Paolo. His brother's experience was pretty telling.

You cannot compare the draft decisions made last year with the ones that will be made under the new NIL climate. Alan made his turn pro decision given what he knew at the time but, in hindsight he likely made a mistake. I strongly suspect that if he had stayed at Syracuse he would be making more than he gets for playing in the G-League.

It is also worth noting that Alan had turned 21 prior to the NBA draft and had played several seasons of NCAA ball before turning pro. AJ just turned 18 a couple months ago and will still be 18 when the draft happens. I am not saying it is likely to happen, but his circumstances are entirely different from his big brother.

And, as almost all of you know, AJ and Alan's father is former NBA journeyman Adrian Griffin who is currently a very successful assistant coach with the Toronto Raptors. AJ will not have, "I need to make money for my family" as one of his reasons for turning pro.

[Phredd3]

I strongly suspect that if he had stayed at Syracuse he would be making more than he gets for playing in the G-League.

Is there much reporting on NIL deals? I haven't seen much that indicates that players are making a bunch of money from NIL. As recently as a month ago, it was reported that "since July 1, college football players have signed 60.1 percent of all NIL deals, with women’s volleyball in second place at 9.8 percent. ... Opendorse found the average NIL compensation for Division I athletes in July was $471, while those in Division II earned an average of $81 and those in Division III, $47."

The G-League only pays about $35K, but that's still more than most players are making, according to that. The assertion that they will seems to be an article of faith on DBR, but where's the actual evidence? What sorts of NIL deals are happening players other than the very top players players in basketball?

[flyingdutchdevil]

You cannot compare the draft decisions made last year with the ones that will be made under the new NIL climate. Alan made his turn pro decision given what he knew at the time but, in hindsight he likely made a mistake. I strongly suspect that if he had stayed at Syracuse he would be making more than he gets for playing in the G-League.

It is also worth noting that Alan had turned 21 prior to the NBA draft and had played several seasons of NCAA ball before turning pro. AJ just turned 18 a couple months ago and will still be 18 when the draft happens. I am not saying it is likely to happen, but his circumstances are entirely different from his big brother.

And, as almost all of you know, AJ and Alan's father is former NBA journeyman Adrian Griffin who is currently a very successful assistant coach with the Toronto Raptors. AJ will not have, "I need to make money for my family" as one of his reasons for turning pro.

Yes you can. We have no idea what NIL contracts look like, especially for non-star players. AJ won't be a star this year; and next year, he'll face competition from Lively and other 'shiny new toy' recruits.

Also, the NIL was announced June 30. The date for withdrawing was July 19. So Alan Griffin had at least 2.5 weeks to take NIL into consideration. And given Quincy Guerrier announced his decision to transfer on May 21, that decision (making Griffin the #2 returning scorer) should have been factored into NIL and made returning even more exciting. Or Griffin could have transferred to a school where he could have been the #1 option and leveraged NIL even more.

Lots of options. Given Griffin left college to become undrafted despite receiving similar feedback from NBA gurus rather than come back to college tells me the NBA is his dream and nothing was going to stop him. I am assuming that AJ is the same way, especially as he grew up in an NBA household as well.

[CDu]

Yes you can. We have no idea what NIL contracts look like, especially for non-star players. AJ won't be a star this year; and next year, he'll face competition from Lively and other 'shiny new toy' recruits.

Also, the NIL was announced June 30. The date for withdrawing was July 19. So Alan Griffin had at least 2.5 weeks to take NIL into consideration. And given Quincy Guerrier announced his decision to transfer on May 21, that decision (making Griffin the #2 returning scorer) should have been factored into NIL and made returning even more exciting. Or Griffin could have transferred to a school where he could have been the #1 option and leveraged NIL even more.

Lots of options. Given Griffin left college to become undrafted despite receiving similar feedback from NBA gurus rather than come back to college tells me the NBA is his dream and nothing was going to stop him. I am assuming that AJ is the same way, especially as he grew up in an NBA household as well.

Yeah, I agree. I don't anticipate the NIL being much of a factor for Griffin's decision this Spring. And I fully expect him to go pro.

Of course, I also expect he'll show a lot more than we've seen so far this year, so the decision will be a bit easier. But I fully expect him to go.

[JasonEvans]

Is there much reporting on NIL deals? I haven't seen much that indicates that players are making a bunch of money from NIL. As recently as a month ago, it was reported that "since July 1, college football players have signed 60.1 percent of all NIL deals, with women’s volleyball in second place at 9.8 percent. ... Opendorse found the average NIL compensation for Division I athletes in July was $471, while those in Division II earned an average of $81 and those in Division III, $47."

The G-League only pays about $35K, but that's still more than most players are making, according to that. The assertion that they will seems to be an article of faith on DBR, but where's the actual evidence? What sorts of NIL deals are happening players other than the very top players players in basketball?

Averages are pretty meaningless if you ask me. A player at an elite basketball or football program isn't going to be in the same ballpark as an average D1 athlete. Alan Griffin, had he returned to school, would have likely been the 2nd most popular/notable player for Syracuse this season (after Buddy Boehiem).

There is not a lot of reliable info about what various players are making off endorsements. For obvious reasons, the players and the companies don't like to talk about money in these matters. But, here are a few deals I found with a bit of light digging --

• Buddy Boeheim endorses Three Wishes cereal - https://twitter.com/Buddy_Boeheim35/...90819591057408
• Outback Steakhouse has signed Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud, Ohio State wide receivers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, Michigan wide receiver AJ Henning, Michigan running back Blake Corum and Florida quarterbacks Anthony Richardson and Emory Jones to its teamMATES program. There is little question they will sign a bunch of college hoops players once the season gets going. Here is a TikTok from AJ Henning about going to Outback that he was clearly paid to post: https://www.tiktok.com/@ajhenning/vi...app=v1&lang=en
• Dr. Pepper signed Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei to deal before Clemson's season went into the toilet: https://www.yahoo.com/now/dr-pepper-...095530725.html

I'm not sure if you follow any athletes on Twitter/Insta/TikTok, but plenty of them are clearly endorsing brands and making money off it. The larger the following, the more money you make.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

You cannot compare the draft decisions made last year with the ones that will be made under the new NIL climate. Alan made his turn pro decision given what he knew at the time but, in hindsight he likely made a mistake. I strongly suspect that if he had stayed at Syracuse he would be making more than he gets for playing in the G-League.

It is also worth noting that Alan had turned 21 prior to the NBA draft and had played several seasons of NCAA ball before turning pro. AJ just turned 18 a couple months ago and will still be 18 when the draft happens. I am not saying it is likely to happen, but his circumstances are entirely different from his big brother.

And, as almost all of you know, AJ and Alan's father is former NBA journeyman Adrian Griffin who is currently a very successful assistant coach with the Toronto Raptors. AJ will not have, "I need to make money for my family" as one of his reasons for turning pro.

You mentioned correctly about his family with regard for him likely not needing money. However, one has to wonder what his dad was telling him about his prospects for making the league. His dad should have been giving him a pretty good read on things. This should not have been a case of some handler telling him false information to inflate his hopes.

It would be fascinating to get the non-spun explanation of how everyone makes their decision. Who knows what is happening behind the scenes.

[scottdude8]

You cannot compare the draft decisions made last year with the ones that will be made under the new NIL climate. Alan made his turn pro decision given what he knew at the time but, in hindsight he likely made a mistake. I strongly suspect that if he had stayed at Syracuse he would be making more than he gets for playing in the G-League.

It is also worth noting that Alan had turned 21 prior to the NBA draft and had played several seasons of NCAA ball before turning pro. AJ just turned 18 a couple months ago and will still be 18 when the draft happens. I am not saying it is likely to happen, but his circumstances are entirely different from his big brother.

And, as almost all of you know, AJ and Alan's father is former NBA journeyman Adrian Griffin who is currently a very successful assistant coach with the Toronto Raptors. AJ will not have, "I need to make money for my family" as one of his reasons for turning pro.

This, this, 1000 times this. I still maintain that Matthew Hurt and DJ Steward would be in Duke uniforms this season if the NIL decision was made before they had to make their draft decisions.

It's very clear that Duke knows it's a brave new world with NIL, hence them strongly advertising their social media reach and NIL opportunities lately. If Duke can make the case to a guy projected to be a second round pick that they can make more in NIL money at Duke than they would on their 2-way deal, the decision making calculus becomes MUCH different. Even more so for a guy who's a projected second rounder who could improve their stock with another year in college. Before NIL, the idea was that you had to maximize your youth to make the most money playing basketball, which meant going pro ASAP. Now, there's a real argument that can be made to players that they'll make more money over the course of their careers by sticking around and improving their draft stock since they won't be losing a year of earning potential.

This is going to change the whole college basketball landscape. One other potential impact: possible 2nd round picks from mid-majors might transfer up for a year to not only try to improve their stock, but parlay that into a year of NIL money. Guys who are really good basketball players that don't fit the current NBA game are going to have harder decisions to make too: Michigan's Hunter Dickinson is openly approaching his sophomore year like its his last in Ann Arbor, but it's hard to see a traditional center like him being more than a second round pick (Luka Garza barely got drafted, and Kofi Cockburn made an unexpected return to Illinois after testing the draft waters for a second time)... if he doesn't spontaneously become a 35% three point shooter or a top-notch PnR defender, maybe he'd rather make 50k being a superstar in Ann Arbor as opposed to making 50k starting his career in the G-League.

This mantra of this offseason is going to be "expect the unexpected".

Addendum: A quick google search of my own has found some very interesting NIL deals... I agree with those above who have said that looking at "averages" isn't going to yield much insight here, but instead we need to see what the most visible stars are doing, because that's the caliber of deal that Duke athletes can/should be getting.

For instance: A UConn women's player inked an NIL deal that got her equity in an emerging company, something that could provide a big payout and/or long term income. Another UConn star inked a six year NIL deal. Paolo is known to have deals with the NBA 2k video game series and a multi-year deal with a trading card company. If those don't have him earning in the 5 figures, I'd be shocked.

The other thing to recognize is that a lot of NIL will be monetizing social media, something that we don't (and arguably most people don't) fully understand. Players with large social media followings who are adept in those areas could make more than objectively better players who are less affable. As an example, Michigan's Adrien Nunez has been a deep bench player his whole career, but has a huge social media following, and is turning that into cash via branded merch.

Long story short: we don't know what we don't know right now.

[brevity]

Well, ESPN sure liked what it saw from Trevor Keels on Tuesday. The draft gurus at the Worldwide Leader have moved Keels from a late 2nd round pick all the way up to the lottery. He goes from #51 on their big board to #14. Wow!

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...mpions-classic

Keels looked like a lottery pick In Madison Square Garden, and the fact that coaches rave about his toughness, approach to the game and focus makes him even more attractive to NBA teams.

"Coaches"? Maybe Brad Stevens talked to someone besides weezie (from the post-game thread):

We chatted up Brad Stevens after the game while looking for a cab. He said, unprompted, "Keels is a beast."

[DavidBenAkiva]

I know you can’t teach being 7’0” but Williams did not look like a first rounder on Tuesday. If he ends the year like last season, then I can see it.

For some perspective, PJ Washington scored 8 points on 3-7 shooting while committing 5 fouls in 17 minutes against Duke in the 2018 Champions Classic. This was the first game of his sophomore year. He then went on to get drafted 12th overall by the Hornets in the 2019 NBA Draft.

I don't think we can take a whole lot from one game.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Following Feast Week, ESPN's Jonathan Givony has updated the Top 100 and Big Board with some notable placements for Duke.

2. Paolo Banchero
8. Trevor Keels
15. Mark Williams
27. Wendell Moore
30. AJ Griffin

Banchero has held steady at the #2 spot, though Givony notes that he is a strong candidate for going #1 overall. The comparison that is coming up lately for him has been "bigger Carmelo Anthony." That seems to fit as Banchero is scoring a lot from the perimeter while being able to muscle inside when needed. He also plays on both ends, which might give teams hope that he could be as good or better than Melo. I view that as incredibly high praise since 1) Melo won the NCAA Tournament, something I hope Paolo can experience as well, and 2) Carmelo Anthony is going to be a Hall of Famer. He had an interesting NBA career, but let's not forget that he was an elite-of-the-elite player for a long time in the NBA. Paolo can be that, too, if things work out.

Keels, Williams, and Moore have all risen since the preseason. For Moore, he was barely on draft radars but has begun to remind folks that he is a real prospect. He is also still really young. The top sophomore draft prospect right now is Purdue's Jaden Ivey. Moore is only 5 months older than Ivey and a full year younger than Iowa sophomore Keegan Murray. Unless he starts hitting 40%+ from 3, it's not clear that Moore will rise higher than the late 1st round. However, there are plenty of NBA teams that would be delighted to add a somewhat young and polished player that plug in on the wings and play. There is huge demand for 2-way players like him.

Griffin, of course, is sliding down the draft boards. That's to be expected based on his limited and inconsistent playing time. I have a feeling that he could be a late riser if he starts contributing during conference play a la Elliot Williams and Grayson Allen. It's clear there is a lot of potential there for Griffin as a defensive stopper that has a good-looking jumper. If he can get comfortable and carve out a role on this team off the bench, he could propel himself (and Duke, for that matter) forward. Draft scouts have known of him for a long time, so just reminding them of the potential might be enough. Still, I am beginning to wonder if he's going to see a path to the NBA Draft Lottery in 2023 if he continues to have a limited role. He needs consistent minutes and a large role to shake off the rust. He's young for his class, too. It's probably a pipe dream on my end, but I could see Griffin thinking about a sophomore season as starter if he really wants to focus on development. Anyway, it's far too soon to speculate about that, just something to keep in the back of my head as the season progresses.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Following Feast Week, ESPN's Jonathan Givony has updated the Top 100 and Big Board with some notable placements for Duke.

2. Paolo Banchero
8. Trevor Keels
15. Mark Williams
27. Wendell Moore
30. AJ Griffin

Banchero has held steady at the #2 spot, though Givony notes that he is a strong candidate for going #1 overall. The comparison that is coming up lately for him has been "bigger Carmelo Anthony." That seems to fit as Banchero is scoring a lot from the perimeter while being able to muscle inside when needed. He also plays on both ends, which might give teams hope that he could be as good or better than Melo. I view that as incredibly high praise since 1) Melo won the NCAA Tournament, something I hope Paolo can experience as well, and 2) Carmelo Anthony is going to be a Hall of Famer. He had an interesting NBA career, but let's not forget that he was an elite-of-the-elite player for a long time in the NBA. Paolo can be that, too, if things work out.

Keels, Williams, and Moore have all risen since the preseason. For Moore, he was barely on draft radars but has begun to remind folks that he is a real prospect. He is also still really young. The top sophomore draft prospect right now is Purdue's Jaden Ivey. Moore is only 5 months older than Ivey and a full year younger than Iowa sophomore Keegan Murray. Unless he starts hitting 40%+ from 3, it's not clear that Moore will rise higher than the late 1st round. However, there are plenty of NBA teams that would be delighted to add a somewhat young and polished player that plug in on the wings and play. There is huge demand for 2-way players like him.

Griffin, of course, is sliding down the draft boards. That's to be expected based on his limited and inconsistent playing time. I have a feeling that he could be a late riser if he starts contributing during conference play a la Elliot Williams and Grayson Allen. It's clear there is a lot of potential there for Griffin as a defensive stopper that has a good-looking jumper. If he can get comfortable and carve out a role on this team off the bench, he could propel himself (and Duke, for that matter) forward. Draft scouts have known of him for a long time, so just reminding them of the potential might be enough. Still, I am beginning to wonder if he's going to see a path to the NBA Draft Lottery in 2023 if he continues to have a limited role. He needs consistent minutes and a large role to shake off the rust. He's young for his class, too. It's probably a pipe dream on my end, but I could see Griffin thinking about a sophomore season as starter if he really wants to focus on development. Anyway, it's far too soon to speculate about that, just something to keep in the back of my head as the season progresses.

Gary Parrish's Eye on College Basketball podcast had an interesting segment on Griffin. In it, he mentioned that freshman who miss substantial time in the preseason often have issues catching up. He mentioned it's why there is such a popular trend right now for players to enroll early (like UK's Shaedon Sharpe). Griffin lost time due to the injury and it's very likely holding him back.

Griffin is in a very tough spot. He's hasn't featured in either of the two marquee games thus far. His minutes were limited and he was ineffective (especially against the Zags). He isn't supplanting any of the starting 5. Baker is the preferred 3pt option off the bench right now.

I hate to say it, but the only way Griffin is going to get minutes in the next month or two is if someone on the starting 5 gets an injury. And no one wants that.

[MChambers]

Gary Parrish's Eye on College Basketball podcast had an interesting segment on Griffin. In it, he mentioned that freshman who miss substantial time in the preseason often have issues catching up. He mentioned it's why there is such a popular trend right now for players to enroll early (like UK's Shaedon Sharpe). Griffin lost time due to the injury and it's very likely holding him back.

Griffin is in a very tough spot. He's hasn't featured in either of the two marquee games thus far. His minutes were limited and he was ineffective (especially against the Zags). He isn't supplanting any of the starting 5. Baker is the preferred 3pt option off the bench right now.

I hate to say it, but the only way Griffin is going to get minutes in the next month or two is if someone on the starting 5 gets an injury. And no one wants that.

I usually agree with you, but I think that Griffin may get quite a bit more time after tonight. Looking at the schedule, Duke has two weeks off, which will help give Griffin more practice time with the first unit, to the extent that the team practices during finals. Then, Duke has three games before conference play starts, with all of the opponents outside the top 100. These would seem to be good opportunities to give Griffin more game time. I'm sure Coach K knows that an effective AJ Griffin would raise Duke's ceiling past the roof.

Of course, I have been very bullish on AJ this year and perhaps I am not being realistic.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I could see Griffin getting important minutes in a small-ball "death lineup" featuring Keels, Moore, Baker, Griffin, and Banchero. Williams obviously gives them a lot, but he's not ideally suited against all lineups. Griffin gives more defensive flexibility and true 5-out options.