2022 NBA Mock Draft

[JasonEvans]

Then again, teams have made "1st round guarantees" before and then failed to pick a guy. Situations change on draft night with trades and whatnot.

Yeah, but it is extremely, extremely rare. If you have a legit agent -- and most Duke guys sign with fairly established representatives -- then a first round promise would only get broken under really severe circumstance. Agents treat that stuff sacredly and a team that breaks a promise like that is going to have trouble dealing with that agent on other personnel matters.

If Trevor gets a first round guarantee from a team, I doubt Trevor falls into the second round.

-Jason "obviously, it is not worth a long discussion IN THIS MOMENT but my fantasies about what a Keels and Roach backcourt do next year with the front-line guys Duke is bringing in... well, let's just say that Scheyer's first year could be a special one" Evans

[SouthernDukie]

Agree here, I'd be delighted to trade another season of Trevor (as awesome as that would be for next year's team) for a championship going away party for K, and almost more importantly, NOT losing to unc in the tourney. Trevor playing so well that he becomes a first round shoe-in does the trick, I believe.

I think nearly all of us would agree to that trade-off. A Natty this year for Keels heading to the NBA. If the Boston Celtics had their first round pick this year, I could’ve seen them using it to pick up Trevor somewhere late in the first round. He could be viewed as a back up to Marcus Smart. A physical body who can learn hard-nosed defense, drive well, and hopefully improve his shot over his first couple of NBA years.

[Kedsy]

I think nearly all of us would agree to that trade-off. A Natty this year for Keels heading to the NBA. If the Boston Celtics had their first round pick this year, I could’ve seen them using it to pick up Trevor somewhere late in the first round. He could be viewed as a back up to Marcus Smart. A physical body who can learn hard-nosed defense, drive well, and hopefully improve his shot over his first couple of NBA years.

It should be noted that Marcus Smart was the Big 12 player of the year as a freshman and 2nd-team All American. He already knew hard-nosed defense (3.0 steals per game; 5.3 steals%). He didn't shoot well in college, but he played like a true PG (5 apg; 26.8% assist% as a freshman). Trevor Keels is a good ballplayer, but there's nothing we've seen so far that would suggest he'd be anywhere near as good (or even the same kind of player) as Marcus Smart.

[godins]

It should be noted that Marcus Smart was the Big 12 player of the year as a freshman and 2nd-team All American. He already knew hard-nosed defense (3.0 steals per game; 5.3 steals%). He didn't shoot well in college, but he played like a true PG (5 apg; 26.8% assist% as a freshman). Trevor Keels is a good ballplayer, but there's nothing we've seen so far that would suggest he'd be anywhere near as good (or even the same kind of player) as Marcus Smart.

Smart was also drafted 6th overall. Which is light years ahead of where Keels will go, regardless of whether he sets the nets on fire this weekend or not. I don't think the Smart comp (advanced stats notwithstanding) is a bad one, given their frame, defense-first reputation, and penchant for bricking 3s as freshmen. To me, the eye test says that Smart is more quick-twitch – both are/were considered bulldogs. Keels can make a lot of money in the NBA as a poor man's Marcus Smart – and I hope he does!

[tking]

Smart was also drafted 6th overall. Which is light years ahead of where Keels will go, regardless of whether he sets the nets on fire this weekend or not. I don't think the Smart comp (advanced stats notwithstanding) is a bad one, given their frame, defense-first reputation, and penchant for bricking 3s as freshmen. To me, the eye test says that Smart is more quick-twitch – both are/were considered bulldogs. Keels can make a lot of money in the NBA as a poor man's Marcus Smart – and I hope he does!

Right -- not sure if Keels can credibly guard upper-echelon NBA point guards. But he's also not being projected as a lottery pick.

Biggest difference (on D) is IQ / instincts, where Marcus Smart is arguably 99th percentile. Same reason why the Draymond comp for undersized bigs is incredibly unfair (and lazy).

[DavidBenAkiva]

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic released his latest mock draft.

https://theathletic.com/3208708/2022...ng-big-movers/

3. Pistons: Paolo Banchero - Vecenie notes that a good Final Four could catapult Banchero to #1 on draft night. Otherwise, he's done pretty much everything asked of him and often very well. Vecenie notes that Banchero has even been good on defense, even if he is somewhat limited athletically at the next level in that department.

7. Portland: AJ Griffin - One note here is that Vecenie does not have Shaedon Sharpe in this mock draft based on statements he and his family have made. If he does declare, Sharpe is projected as a top-5 pick. Griffin might slide down a spot if that happens. The other question about Griffin is how athletic he really is. The pre-injury tape from high school suggests that he's lost a step. Is that a matter of him getting his legs back or is the version we see now what we're going to see from here on out? That's an important gamble for a front office. The floor is pretty good, but the ceiling is not so clear.

12. New York Knicks: Mark Williams - Vecenie has always been a little high on Big Mark. The NCAA Tournament run hasn't changed that. He's now in the late lottery. I don't know about the fit with the Knicks. This is more of a big board than a true mock, though. I would think Charlotte or even Portland would be better fits.

28. Golden State: Wendell Moore - I could not imagine a better fit for Moore than Golden State. Play defense, be hit set jumpers, keep the ball moving. You can see Moore translating the NBA in many settings, but the Warriors seem like a particularly good fit. He's a poor-man's Andre Iguodala.

31. Indiana: Trevor Keels - None of the second-rounders get a write-up. I think this tracks with the general consensus on Keels. He has 1st round potential, either this year or next. Does he decide that coming back can shore up his draft status? That's the big question.

[scottdude8]

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic released his latest mock draft.

https://theathletic.com/3208708/2022...ng-big-movers/

3. Pistons: Paolo Banchero - Vecenie notes that a good Final Four could catapult Banchero to #1 on draft night. Otherwise, he's done pretty much everything asked of him and often very well. Vecenie notes that Banchero has even been good on defense, even if he is somewhat limited athletically at the next level in that department.

7. Portland: AJ Griffin - One note here is that Vecenie does not have Shaedon Sharpe in this mock draft based on statements he and his family have made. If he does declare, Sharpe is projected as a top-5 pick. Griffin might slide down a spot if that happens. The other question about Griffin is how athletic he really is. The pre-injury tape from high school suggests that he's lost a step. Is that a matter of him getting his legs back or is the version we see now what we're going to see from here on out? That's an important gamble for a front office. The floor is pretty good, but the ceiling is not so clear.

12. New York Knicks: Mark Williams - Vecenie has always been a little high on Big Mark. The NCAA Tournament run hasn't changed that. He's now in the late lottery. I don't know about the fit with the Knicks. This is more of a big board than a true mock, though. I would think Charlotte or even Portland would be better fits.

28. Golden State: Wendell Moore - I could not imagine a better fit for Moore than Golden State. Play defense, be hit set jumpers, keep the ball moving. You can see Moore translating the NBA in many settings, but the Warriors seem like a particularly good fit. He's a poor-man's Andre Iguodala.

31. Indiana: Trevor Keels - None of the second-rounders get a write-up. I think this tracks with the general consensus on Keels. He has 1st round potential, either this year or next. Does he decide that coming back can shore up his draft status? That's the big question.

I'm with Vecenie that Mark could come off the board earlier than some expect given the right fit with the right team. Given the Raptors late run they likely will lose their first round pick from a trade this year, but I've said all season that they'd jump at the chance to add Mark: they have a plethora of talented wing players and Fred Van Vleet running the point, they just need a talented complimentary big to round out the young core. A team that knows they don't need Mark to score 10 points a game, but rather need a rebounder/defender who can run the floor and score opportunistically, will jump at the chance to grab Mark, especially if that's the missing piece from them making a playoff run. Mark could conceivably make more of an immediate impact than a lot of the guys typically drafted in the 10-20 range if given the right role.

[unexpected]

I'm with Vecenie that Mark could come off the board earlier than some expect given the right fit with the right team. Given the Raptors late run they likely will lose their first round pick from a trade this year, but I've said all season that they'd jump at the chance to add Mark: they have a plethora of talented wing players and Fred Van Vleet running the point, they just need a talented complimentary big to round out the young core. A team that knows they don't need Mark to score 10 points a game, but rather need a rebounder/defender who can run the floor and score opportunistically, will jump at the chance to grab Mark, especially if that's the missing piece from them making a playoff run. Mark could conceivably make more of an immediate impact than a lot of the guys typically drafted in the 10-20 range if given the right role.

scottdude8, totally off-topic, but just looking at your bio - something I've pined for in my life is an "authentic" Zoubek jersey. Do those exist in any shape or fashion? Maybe from the man himself? Only thing I've found are the cheap knock-offs.

[scottdude8]

scottdude8, totally off-topic, but just looking at your bio - something I've pined for in my life is an "authentic" Zoubek jersey. Do those exist in any shape or fashion? Maybe from the man himself? Only thing I've found are the cheap knock-offs.

Haha if there was one I'd love to have it, but alas, no!

[DukieInBrasil]

Based on what i saw from them over the course of the year I don't think either of Wendell or Trevor should try for the draft.
Wendell is a very nice college player, and has good all around game, but does not excel at any particular facet of the game, withe possible exception of defense. And that is not enough for the NBA.
Trevor is also a nice college player but is not a good enough shooter nor a good enough passer to carve out a role as a guard in the NBA. He needs to commit himself to getting in insanely good shape, a la JJ Redick, to be quick/agile enough to handle defending NBA 2/3s. He also needs to commit himself to developing a left hand and becoming a competent 3pt shooter.
Both are talented players and certainly good enough to be professional basketball players, but in my non-NBA scout eyes, neither would be worth a 1st round pick. There is no shame in being a 2nd round pick and some do make great careers out of being a 2nd round selection, see one Boozer, Carlos. However, Matthew Hurt and DJ Steward should be a good cautionary tales for Wendell and Trevor.
Matthew was THE star player for his team, but has serious limitations that have so far and will probably always keep him from playing in the NBA. Wendell was a, not THE, star player on his team whose limitations are not so glaring as Matthew's but I don't see how Wendell's draft status is better now than if he returned and becomes a star of his team rather than a complementary player, ie next year.
DJ was an exciting player who occasionally looked great, but who also will probably never play in the NBA. Trevor's stats are not appreciably better than DJ's, although his physique lends itself better to the NBA than DJ's does.
Unless either/both of them have devastatingly good pre-draft workouts, i just don't see how staying in the draft will work to their advantage.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Interesting post from Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress/ESPN.

What are your chances of being a real NBA player if drafted outside the first round? History (2001-2017) says 72% of second round picks end up being fringe bench players or never play in the NBA at all. That number drops to 21% for first rounders, and 34% for those who go 21-30.

https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/sta...643975/photo/1