Expectations for Duke’s next men’s basketball head coach, Jon Scheyer

[CameronDuke]

Duke men’s basketball has not had a new head coach in 15,356 days. Coach K’s era ran from March 18, 1980 to April 2, 2022. This is a historic day in Duke men’s basketball history.

What are your honest expectations of Coach Scheyer? It will be incredibly difficult and unfair to expect him to replicate Coach K’s success. I feel what we witnessed for the last 42 years was a once in a lifetime run for Duke men’s basketball. I think that will become more evident as we all age in our fandom the next couple decades. That does not mean Duke cannot win many games and be successful. The national title or bust mentality needs to be tempered in my opinion, however. Of course we want to compete for them annually. But the reality is most of the upcoming seasons won’t result in that achievement.

My expectations are to contend for the ACC regular season and tournament titles annually and also obviously it would be nice to play past the first weekend of the NCAAT. I am interested to see any tinkering or adjustments to Coach Scheyer’s recruiting philosophy (work the transfer market? Keep getting the top one and done recruits?). I am also eager to see any Xs and Os adjustments offensively and defensively. Will Duke run a more methodical offense or play more motion one on one style? Will Duke schedule out of conference differently?

It is a historic but exciting day for the future of the program. Duke has a coach coming in that’s 0-0 all time as a D1 men’s basketball head coach. Coach K said Coach Scheyer is ready.

We have to trust him.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

When Hubert was struggling and Jon knocking it out of the park in recruiting, it appeared that Jon would have a running start on Davis and the Heels. Now? Not so much.

I really like the way this whole retirement / succession thing was handled....but the runway we thought Jon had (vis a vis the Cheats) is no longer there. It's been bombed twice in a month.

[BigZ]

I wonder what Scheyer will do different than K.

[simplyluvin]

I hope for much greater flexibility from JS. For Xs and Os, I hope for more avid use of different defenses (zone) to match the situation or opponent and perhaps more set plays on offense.

Recruiting will be where the impact can be huge. More balance with OADs, multi-years, and transfers. Threading the needle will be tough but I think Scheyer is up to the task. As was mentioned in another thread, find shooters and bring in more experienced guys. Premium on strong guards. Cultivate more Gillespie-type guys.

[bundabergdevil]

This season and next season are the first and second half of the first Godfather. That is my expectation for next year. Jon laying waste to his rivals.

[BigZ]

I wonder how Scheyer’s personality will work. If he tries to yell at guys like K he might just be laughed at

[Edouble]

I wonder how Scheyer’s personality will work. If he tries to yell at guys like K he might just be laughed at

Or his players would cry. Or lose interest.

This generation is different. Even Coach K doesn't yell as much today as he did in the 80s/90s.

Not sure that Jon is a yeller either. His generation is different too.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I wonder what Scheyer will do different than K.

He will be Jon Scheyer. Will be himself.

I wonder how Scheyer’s personality will work. If he tries to yell at guys like K he might just be laughed at

He's not unknown. He is already very well respected by the players, made clear by video clips of practices, and by his recruiting success.

[jipops]

Patience. Lots and lots of patience. Temper your expectations because next season is going to be a rough ride. Who leaves and who stays isn’t much of a variable to me, Roach is the only one in question imo.

What if any transfers come in is the real variable. But depending on how that turns out I see a big possibility of this being a bubble team next year. It’s going to be an extremely young group with almost no depth at all. Jon does have an advantage of working with some high level talent but unlike Hubert he’ll be working with a team that has very, very little experience and none together playing as a unit. It’s just a very different situation he is working with. I’m hopeful that Jon can luck out with more Roach type players that are effective and spend more than 1 year playing together. I think that’s the only way he’ll be able to continue a level of success. Trying to land a team made up mostly of one year players just isn’t going to be sustainable and will put Duke back at the bottom of the ACC which was where they were for much of the 70’s.

Jon was fantastic at managing a game as a player. We’ll see if he can translate that into coaching. I’m interested in seeing how it shakes out with a new personality on the sidelines.

[53n206]

Times are different. Many really good teams from all over the country keeping local players at home. The NIL and the one and done have made a difference in dukes success from year to year. This may be shored up with better use of the portal. Time will tell, and reasonably soon. I do believe that the loss to Carolina will improve their recruiting. But the one and done has affected our development of skilled players. I think we’ll always get big-time stars for a year. It’s hard to imagine what our new coach can do when we compare the success that Coach K had in the 80s, 90s, etc. We have been particularly successful in the last 10 years when compared with so many other teams. I don’t see that this is going to change. Duke, and the success of our ex-players, playing NBA and after, will appeal to many talented and intelligent players.

[Sixth_Sense]

I’m lowering my expectations and you guys should too.

He’s a young coach stepping into the most high profile job in the country. There will be growing pains and a lot of you may learn that you took the last era for granted. We’ve been spoiled.

We’ve got the high caliber recruits. The question will be how good he is at Xs and Os and he’s going to develop his own coaching style through trial and error

I just pray to God we don’t suffer like Indiana’s program.

[CDu]

I have zero expectations. I have hopes, but zero expectations. Scheyer will have a talented, but potentially very young roster. At a time when many teams nationally will be very old (like this year). He will be a first-year coach. It is quite possible he will struggle. Hopefully he won’t, but it is far from ordained that we will continue to be the great program that we have gotten to enjoy over the past 4 decades under Coach K.

I am wishing for the best for Scheyer and Duke, but I have zero expectations.

[kAzE]

Not sure why expectations need to be tempered? We will once again have arguably the most talented team in the country. We are still Duke. Will I expect the same level of relationship building and leadership from Jon? No, but with the level of talent coming in and hopefully at least a couple of guys returning, I definitely expect to be right in the thick of the final four conversation. You’re selling this program short if you expect anything less.

I believe in Jon because coach trusted him to be the guy. He didn’t want any of his other assistants from the past 4 decades. Coach Scheyer will not let this program down.

I’m booking my trip to Houston well in advance

[dukelifer]

I have zero expectations. I have hopes, but zero expectations. Scheyer will have a talented, but potentially very young roster. At a time when many teams nationally will be very old (like this year). He will be a first-year coach. It is quite possible he will struggle. Hopefully he won’t, but it is far from ordained that we will continue to be the great program that we have gotten to enjoy over the past 4 decades under Coach K.

I am wishing for the best for Scheyer and Duke, but I have zero expectations.

Unlike Hubert who was handed an experienced team and added some nice additional pieces, Jon will be starting with a fresh bunch of good but not great players. In time the incoming group could make some noise but next year will not be easy. Jon will have a lot of work to do to build a program and success. This season had some continuity from last season and it was key. Next year there may be little. If three come back - it will certainly help. If only one comes back- the next few years may be very challenging. I worry for Jon. Hubert’s first year success will only make it harder.

[DukeFanNotNBAFan]

As we see, recruiting good players isn’t hard for Scheyer right now

What is hard: Understanding how to put the puzzle together. Is recruiting the top high school players enough? Do you need transfers? How many transfers? Do you need to be older in the back-court consistently? We know that better outside shooting is needed.

X’s and O’s Is hard. Since Jon has been on staff, the program has been VERY simplified in its offensive sets and its defensive structure. Like in today’s NFL, I believe the best path forward is to be multiple on defense. Unless you have incredible experience, I believe you need to be able to run man as proficiently as you do zone. If you’re not a good defensive team, you can make up a lot of ground by confusing the offense and slowing them down. Will Jon merely run the same M2M with a very occasional 2-3 zone?

Offensively, we’ve seen that ISO ball can be very easy to guard when the shots arent going in. How will Scheyer adjust? How can we achieve better spacing, better movement, and better ball movement? How do we get better shooters into this program and then run an offensive system that capitalizes on it?

Lots of questions for him. I’m holding back any expectations. We’ll see how it goes.

Ultimately, I’m grateful. I’m grateful for the K years, but I’m also grateful the choice was Scheyer over Amaker, Capel, Dawkins, Wojo, etc. The unknown is better than how we would feel if the replacement had a track record.

[Dr. Maturin]

I have zero expectations. I have hopes, but zero expectations. Scheyer will have a talented, but potentially very young roster. At a time when many teams nationally will be very old (like this year). He will be a first-year coach. It is quite possible he will struggle. Hopefully he won’t, but it is far from ordained that we will continue to be the great program that we have gotten to enjoy over the past 4 decades under Coach K.

I am wishing for the best for Scheyer and Duke, but I have zero expectations.

I think it will be a bit refreshing to go in without expectations. I've never been a fan of the "title or bust" mentality, and Coach K's last year just ratcheted up the pressure and expectations to crazy levels. Next year I expect fun basketball with a talented team. Hopefully Jeremy Roach comes back and becomes a leader and star as a junior. There will be bumps along the way, no matter what happens. But the losses won't be anywhere near as painful as the recent ones.

[kAzE]

I think it will be a bit refreshing to go in without expectations. I've never been a fan of the "title or bust" mentality, and Coach K's last year just ratcheted up the pressure and expectations to crazy levels. Next year I expect fun basketball with a talented team. Hopefully Jeremy Roach comes back and becomes a leader and star as a junior. There will be bumps along the way, no matter what happens. But the losses won't be anywhere near as painful as the recent ones.

I never thought it was title or bust even with Coach K. That's an absurd level of expectations.

[MarkD83]

First, I like this thread...it helps us (me) to move on. There will be games next year and more opportunities to win various championships.

Second, CDu's comments are critical to keep in mind...we can have hopes and the team can have goals, but expectations can result in the inability to enjoy accomplishments.

Third, the fun of next year and the few years after that will be seeing Jon establish his style.

Maybe he recruits more 3 and 4 stars to go with OADs and the 3 and 4 stars stay around for several years.

Maybe he plays 8-10 players and Duke takes a few loses in November so that the bench is deeper in March.

Maybe he goes to less sophisticated and easier to learn defenses. Maybe he gets the team to run more set plays that feature less one-on-one offense.

Whatever changes he makes may well include several "down" years where Duke is not getting double byes in the ACC tournament and may not be a top 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. Not that the goals or hopes will be lowered but it is a way to throw out our "expectations" and enjoy the growth of the team.

Just remember 10-17 and 11-17 seasons lead to the 42 years of success we now feel entitled to seeing. Don't feel entitled.

[KandG]

The vacuum left by a coaching transition of this magnitude can’t be overstated. In all sports, the departure of someone like K leaving behind a fan base and media accustomed to the program’s sustained success is a lot to live up to. UCLA (even with a few good spells) and especially Indiana are the most stark examples of how things can go sideways.

I don’t honestly have expectations beyond a certain level of competence that should be maintained with the recruiting and player development infrastructure that K and others established. Scheyer is his own person, and I welcome the infusion of a potentially fresh approach to team building and offensive and defensive strategies.

I hope the best for him, but admit I do worry about what’s next if he has a bumpy first couple of years.

[bluenorth]

Coach S has established his chops as a recruiter. Now we will wait to see how the program evolves under his leadership. Will it continue along the lines of the current model, with its heavy reliance on one and dones? Or will it place more emphasis on long(er) term player development? Two factors that will be important to the program will be how Duke utilizes the NIL and the transfer portal. Let's just give Coach S some time and leeway to develop his own Duke brand.