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Thread: Inflation

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2019
    Location
    West Palm Beach, Fl

    Inflation

    Prices seem to be really moving upward. Just about everything I buy has increased. I remember my father telling me when I was about seven or eight, as we pushed a shopping cart into the grocery store that someday people will need the cart just to carry the money for shopping. At the time, I couldn't understand it but it is a perfect metaphor. My first car was a 66 Mustang. I believe it was six thousand new. Lot of Ymmm Beers since then. Fogs the memory.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by TeacherTom View Post
    Prices seem to be really moving upward. Just about everything I buy has increased. I remember my father telling me when I was about seven or eight, as we pushed a shopping cart into the grocery store that someday people will need the cart just to carry the money for shopping. At the time, I couldn't understand it but it is a perfect metaphor. My first car was a 66 Mustang. I believe it was six thousand new. Lot of Ymmm Beers since then. Fogs the memory.
    Things will settle down at some point...there are just SO many shortages right now...raw materials like lumber...my wife and I ordered some new furniture in December, we MAY see it in July. Ordered a new whole house generator, it'll be months before that arrives...

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2019
    Location
    West Palm Beach, Fl
    I certainly hope so. We are building an addition on our second home and the lumber prices are ridiculous. Probably should have waited for a correction.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by TeacherTom View Post
    I certainly hope so. We are building an addition on our second home and the lumber prices are ridiculous. Probably should have waited for a correction.
    Consensus seems to be that huge consumer demand, accompanied by factories ramping up, is making many, many goods more expensive, while services are lagging...hotels, restaurants, airlines still not up to pre-pandemic levels...

    I had some deck work done last summer, there was no pressure treated lumber anywhere...my carpenter had to scrounge in his yard to come up with a modest number of boards.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by TeacherTom View Post
    My first car was a 66 Mustang. I believe it was six thousand new. Lot of Ymmm Beers since then. Fogs the memory.
    If it was $6k in 1966, it must have been a Shelby with all the bells & whistles. The average Mustang was considered an "affordable" car back then. I remember that when it first came out as a 1964 model, the Mustang was advertised for under $2,500. That was a basic model with a 6 cylinder engine and a 3 speed manual transmission. This was also an era when you could buy a new Rolls Royce for around $12k. I'm at an age where I have a hard time remembering what I had for lunch these days, but for some reason, I remember that.

    Inflation is a funny thing. In absolute terms some things are cheaper now than they were then. Gas, for example. By my back of the napkin calculation, at under $3.00 a gallon it is less expensive than it was at $.30 in 1966. Of course math is not my strength, so someone can correct me if I'm way off.

    Section 15

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by TeacherTom View Post
    Prices seem to be really moving upward. Just about everything I buy has increased. I remember my father telling me when I was about seven or eight, as we pushed a shopping cart into the grocery store that someday people will need the cart just to carry the money for shopping. At the time, I couldn't understand it but it is a perfect metaphor. My first car was a 66 Mustang. I believe it was six thousand new. Lot of Ymmm Beers since then. Fogs the memory.
    Speaking of mustangs and inflation, I also read today that good ol gasoline prices are at a 7 year high, just in time for Memorial Day travel! Inflation has definitely crept in on us... the big debate now seems to be if it's just temporary or long term inflation. We are still in unknown pandemic territory when it comes to reopening the economy and how this plays out.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by TeacherTom View Post
    I certainly hope so. We are building an addition on our second home and the lumber prices are ridiculous. Probably should have waited for a correction.
    Lumber is an item that is scarce. As are rental cars (companies sold off much of their fleets last summer when business was slow and they needed cash). And some microchips (some of which go into cars).

    At the same time, interest rates are at record lows so if you are financing your addition you can do it ridiculously cheaply. I refinanced my mortgage earlier this year and many people I know are doing the same. That's why it is a really good time for infrastructure spending, but I digress...

    And this is not investment advice but if you are so alarmed about inflation, there are hedges against it

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    What's with the complaining? The price of toilet paper has come down.

  9. #9
    When I was in college, weed was $20 an ounce and you could buy a nickel bag.
    ~rthomas

  10. #10
    It's a strange issue and one we have never really faced, but this is a supply-side recession. People have plenty of money but there is a scarcity in goods and services. This has been coming for a long time with an aging worldwide population and decreased birth rates in affluent countries. The pandemic certainly exacerbated an issue that was already on the radar.

  11. #11
    https://www.industryweek.com/talent/...killed-workers

    A look at worker shortages as a long-term trend that we've known about and never even tried to fix. This issue has been exacerbated by the pandemic.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Summerville ,S.C.
    We literally are bursting at the seems at our ports.
    It's been 20 yrs since i have seen as much cargo.
    We cannot load it out quick enough.byvrail truck or what have you.75 hrs a week we are averaging per employee. Trainees quit its insane.

  13. #13
    Just in time economies have trouble when the "in time" doesn't happen.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Just in time economies have trouble when the "in time" doesn't happen.
    Yes. Exactly.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Just in time economies have trouble when the "in time" doesn't happen.
    Business Week had a great article about just in time innovator Toyota being one of the only car companies which saw the current chip shortage coming...they'd been burned a decade ago after the tsunami, have paid much much more attention to suppliers since then...

    meanwhile I can't imagine when the furniture we bought in December will actually arrive, July at the earliest we are told...and that's coming from the good old USA...

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    Business Week had a great article about just in time innovator Toyota being one of the only car companies which saw the current chip shortage coming...they'd been burned a decade ago after the tsunami, have paid much much more attention to suppliers since then...

    meanwhile I can't imagine when the furniture we bought in December will actually arrive, July at the earliest we are told...and that's coming from the good old USA...
    We ordered a couch Thanksgiving, I think it was originally promised for March and we got it this week. The refunded the delivery fee, which was nice. It was apparently ďin transitĒ for a long time so I was briefly convinced it was on the ship that was stuck in the Suez.

    For all of the headaches, I actually preferred the 14 year old couch that was totally beat up but was more comfortable and I didnít have to worry about making a mess, particularly now when we arenít having company. Happy wife, happy life...

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    We ordered a couch Thanksgiving, I think it was originally promised for March and we got it this week. The refunded the delivery fee, which was nice. It was apparently ďin transitĒ for a long time so I was briefly convinced it was on the ship that was stuck in the Suez.

    For all of the headaches, I actually preferred the 14 year old couch that was totally beat up but was more comfortable and I didnít have to worry about making a mess, particularly now when we arenít having company. Happy wife, happy life...
    ah, you're ruining my notion of how wonderful the new furniture will be...but at least we are replacing a sub-optimal arrangement that has run its course, so I hope the new stuff is enjoyable..

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    ah, you're ruining my notion of how wonderful the new furniture will be...but at least we are replacing a sub-optimal arrangement that has run its course, so I hope the new stuff is enjoyable..
    We had the old couch for 14 years in three different apartments. For much of the time it was our only couch. We have two boys in elementary school and my mother-in-law slept on the pullout for many years so it was very well used.

    I donít like change but admitted it didnít look great so change was necessary. I would have just gotten the same couch but was outvoted 1-1. The new couch is bigger and has a chaise. We now have a second couch that I donít like very much so I carefully evaluated the differences between the one I like and the one I donít like when buying the new one.

    We are currently in ďthe couch owns usĒ stage where we donít let the kids bring food or anything else on the new couch. The second couch was treated like that but now that we have a new couch it has been liberated somewhat.

    As you can tell, way too much mental energy was used on this couch situation. Hopefully it will last a long time. I have come a long way from Duke where we found a couch on a street corner off east campus, took it back to our dorm, and we were happy for four years.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    Business Week had a great article about just in time innovator Toyota being one of the only car companies which saw the current chip shortage coming...they'd been burned a decade ago after the tsunami, have paid much much more attention to suppliers since then...

    meanwhile I can't imagine when the furniture we bought in December will actually arrive, July at the earliest we are told...and that's coming from the good old USA...
    I work for an incredibly tiny ventilator manufacturer. We have always struggled to get component parts because of our limited purchasing power, small orders and economies of scale disadvantage. For years we have had orders pulled out from under us when larger manufacturers put in huge orders for components. This has led to delays in the manufacturing process in the past. So during this component shortage that is going on right now we got incredibly lucky that two and a half years ago our CEO got fed up and had atthe COO purchase huge back stocks of component parts. And now that the component parts are scarce and much more expensive the huge multinational corporations, which depend on the just-in-time supply chain, are experiencing delays of 6 to 8 months on the delivery of product and we are shipping out devices and 3 days or less. Again, we got incredibly lucky but the CEO deserves credit for this decision.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by ClemmonsDevil View Post
    I work for an incredibly tiny ventilator manufacturer. We have always struggled to get component parts because of our limited purchasing power, small orders and economies of scale disadvantage. For years we have had orders pulled out from under us when larger manufacturers put in huge orders for components. This has led to delays in the manufacturing process in the past. So during this component shortage that is going on right now we got incredibly lucky that two and a half years ago our CEO got fed up and had atthe COO purchase huge back stocks of component parts. And now that the component parts are scarce and much more expensive the huge multinational corporations, which depend on the just-in-time supply chain, are experiencing delays of 6 to 8 months on the delivery of product and we are shipping out devices and 3 days or less. Again, we got incredibly lucky but the CEO deserves credit for this decision.
    Well, of course you sell incredibly tiny ventilators! Can't put the full sized ones in newborns!

    -jk

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