Teslas and other electric vehicles

[budwom]

good article in the Times today about how Chinese consumers are falling out of love with foreign cars, and are heavily buying the local brands, electric and otherwise...

[cato]

In the old days, this was true. An EV hobbyist would monitor individual cells and swap out dying cells as needed. Most modern battery packs have a lot of complex interconnections to spread the load as evenly as possible across the individual cells, adjusting draw to each cell as needed to preserve the life of the overall set for as long as possible without requiring individual cell replacement. Also, the packs are typically fairly buried and they are very heavy, so taking the pack out to work on it or swap cells is a pretty big job. In general, the progression has been from simple and easily replaceable individual cells toward complex circuitry leading to treating a collection of cells as a single unit. Never say never, but I don't know that a regression back to simple and swappable cells will be on the horizon any time soon.

People all have their different moments, but *this* is what I come to DBR for (and the puns). Excellent sharing of knowledge that I wouldn’t have been likely to pick up somewhere else, unless it were mentioned in a news article or essay about EVs.

[burnspbesq]

It’ll be at least Q3 of 24 before you can get your hands on one, but the VW ID.7 (a roughly Passat-sized sedan) looks extremely promising.

https://youtu.be/R3pg2__omKo

[burnspbesq]

A pretty brutal assessment of Tesla stock’s prospects. Aka “at last, a valuation that makes sense.”

https://fortune.com/2023/04/20/tesla...price-outlook/

[Phredd3]

A pretty brutal assessment of Tesla stock’s prospects. Aka “at last, a valuation that makes sense.”

https://fortune.com/2023/04/20/tesla...price-outlook/

Too bad it's paywalled.

[camion]

Too bad it's paywalled.

Does this Link work? MSN has a version of the story.

MSN - Tesla's Coming Crash

[Phredd3]

Does this Link work? MSN has a version of the story.

MSN - Tesla's Coming Crash

Indeed, it does. Thank you.

And “Tesla’s really admitting that the car business won’t make the money Musk was projecting, and it’s clear that claims the ancillary business will supply the needed extra growth are a shell game.” Ouch. That's a harsh critique.

[camion]

Indeed, it does. Thank you.

And “Tesla’s really admitting that the car business won’t make the money Musk was projecting, and it’s clear that claims the ancillary business will supply the needed extra growth are a shell game.” Ouch. That's a harsh critique.

Luckily Musk still has Twitter to fall back on to provide needed cash. Once the reorganization is complete they should have essentially $0 labor cost .

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Indeed, it does. Thank you.

And “Tesla’s really admitting that the car business won’t make the money Musk was projecting, and it’s clear that claims the ancillary business will supply the needed extra growth are a shell game.” Ouch. That's a harsh critique.

If GM’s PE is less than 6, how can Tesla still sell for a 50 PE? It’s a car company. It’s now discounting almost every few weeks. All its models are long in the tooth. The crazy pickup is butt ugly.

Having said all that, what Elon has done is amazing. No one else has started a new car company in decades, almost a century. But Tesla hasn’t cured cancer, turned water to gold, etc. It is a car company. On top of that Elon has done a lot of damage to Tesla with his bizarre behavior. I have friends who own Teslas who will not buy another one.

Tesla has existed with no real competition. That will rapidly change over the next two years. This article will be the start of many to come over the next few months.

[YmoBeThere]

...in Our Real-World Highway Testing

From Car and Driver

While internal-combustion cars often match or exceed their EPA highway fuel economy numbers, a new paper using data from C/D's highway tests show that EVs are far worse at meeting expectations.


BY CALEB MILLER PUBLISHED: APR 21, 2023

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a4...s-sae-article/

[Jeffrey]

And “Tesla’s really admitting that the car business won’t make the money Musk was projecting, and it’s clear that claims the ancillary business will supply the needed extra growth are a shell game.” Ouch. That's a harsh critique.

But, Cathie says….

https://ark-invest.com/articles/valu...e-target-2027/

And, she even has a Monte Carlo simulation! Cathie knows the variables’ statistical dependencies.

[Phredd3]

But, Cathie says….

https://ark-invest.com/articles/valu...e-target-2027/

And, she even has a Monte Carlo simulation! Cathie knows the variables’ statistical dependencies.

"Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver..." That amounts to saying that Tesla will have economically viable self-driving tech in four years. Uh-huh.

[camion]

"Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver..." That amounts to saying that Tesla will have economically viable self-driving tech in four years. Uh-huh.

I believe that in four years Tesla will have reliable self-driving tech within four years. And so on.

At some point it will be true if Tesla survives long enough.

[burnspbesq]

"Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver..." That amounts to saying that Tesla will have economically viable self-driving tech in four years. Uh-huh.

Relying on vaporware leads to vapor valuations.

[burnspbesq]

...in Our Real-World Highway Testing

From Car and Driver

While internal-combustion cars often match or exceed their EPA highway fuel economy numbers, a new paper using data from C/D's highway tests show that EVs are far worse at meeting expectations.


BY CALEB MILLER PUBLISHED: APR 21, 2023

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a4...s-sae-article/

I would argue that steady-state 75 mph is not “real world.”

It’s also an open secret that a certain EV maker, run by a narcissistic megalomaniac who’s never met a Federal law he didn’t want to violate, routinely games the EPA testing procedures.

[-jk]

...in Our Real-World Highway Testing

From Car and Driver

While internal-combustion cars often match or exceed their EPA highway fuel economy numbers, a new paper using data from C/D's highway tests show that EVs are far worse at meeting expectations.


BY CALEB MILLER PUBLISHED: APR 21, 2023

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a4...s-sae-article/

There was a time the EPA gas MPG numbers were a complete joke, too. EVs are still relatively new. It takes time - and some stumbles - to get there.

-jk

[Kdogg]

...in Our Real-World Highway Testing

From Car and Driver

While internal-combustion cars often match or exceed their EPA highway fuel economy numbers, a new paper using data from C/D's highway tests show that EVs are far worse at meeting expectations.


BY CALEB MILLER PUBLISHED: APR 21, 2023

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a4...s-sae-article/

How are they taking into account the weather? I'm sure the EPA figures are from a moderate climate. Last I checked C/D's garage was in Michigan. EV's do worse in the cold.

[CDu]

EV's do worse in the cold.

So do gas-powered vehicles.

[Kdogg]

So do gas-powered vehicles.

True but at 75 mph it's less of an issue even with the increased air resistance. There's also the belief that fuel pumped in the cold is more energy dense so it would even out. While it might technically be true, I don't think it has a meaningful impact.

[cato]

True but at 75 mph it's less of an issue even with the increased air resistance. There's also the belief that fuel pumped in the cold is more energy dense so it would even out. While it might technically be true, I don't think it has a meaningful impact.

Maybe *that’s* why I always get much better mileage driving from the cold Sierra Nevada in the winter to the warm SoCal coast compared to the trip up from the warmth to the cold.