Top 5 Movies at the Boxoffice - Winter 2023

[JasonEvans]

Oh wow, we are probably a week or so late getting this annual poll started. Please have your votes in by Wednesday, November 8th as that is when our contest will close.

It is time for the winter movie poll. For folks who have not done this before, here are the 2022-23, the 2021-22, and the 2019-20 threads on this topic.

You should know the rules by now. You pick the 5 movies (not 4, not 6, don't make me go all Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch on you) that you think will generate the most domestic (not international!!) boxoffice during the winter season. We are defining the season as November 9th to Feb 28th. You can pick any film released in that time frame. Yes, that is a long time, but it will give you a lot of interesting films to pick from. We will determine the winner based on boxoffice receipts from November 9th through March 30th. If we have not formally declared the winners before March 30th, the contest will end at that time.

Here are the films you will pick from:
The Marvels - Nov 10
Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - Nov 17
Trolls Band Together - Nov 17
Wish - Nov 22
Napoleon - Nov 22
Poor Things - Dec 8
Wonka - Dec 15
Aquaman 2 - Dec 22
Migration - Dec 22
The Color Purple - Dec 25
Argylle - Feb 2
Madame Web - Feb 14

You can also select "field" in which case you will be picking any film not named above. If is possible someone will want to take 2 or 3 or even 5 films from the field. Please indicate in a post if that is your intention otherwise it will be assumed that you field pick only means 1 film not named.

Lastly, a note about the unique nature of this year's contest. Due to the SAG-AFTRA strike, the released schedule of major films has really gone whacko. This winter we were supposed to get Dune 2 and several other movies that would have likely been no-brainers to pick, but they have moved to alternate dates. It is possible that a resolution of the strike will completely shuffle the schedule in a way that makes our contest moot. It is also possible that several of the big-name films in the contest could move if the strike is not resolved. I will try to deal with this issue fairly and judiciously. I will say right off the bat that if Dune 2 comes back on the schedule due to the strike being resolved, I'm not just going to say, "the field voters all win!"

Let me know your thoughts...

-Jason

[CameronBornAndBred]

The Marvels has an incredibly short run time, which is often not a good sign. The only reason it has a chance in this poll is due to weak competition.

[acdevil]

Can polls not be done on cell phone? I can’t seem to vote. Maybe I was purged from the voter logs right before the election. The anti-Marvel lobby is nefarious for this behavior.

[PackMan97]

For once I feel that picking super hero movies may not be a winning strategy.

[YmoBeThere]

After looking at all the movies and judging my initial reaction to them, I deferred to a random number generator.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Can polls not be done on cell phone? I can’t seem to vote. Maybe I was purged from the voter logs right before the election. The anti-Marvel lobby is nefarious for this behavior.

Change from "mobile" to "blue" at the bottom of the page. That should make it show up.

[acdevil]

Much obliged

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Much obliged

I am not knowledgeable on many things, but this is one I have some data on.

[PackMan97]

I will pick all of them! I may be disqualified from winning...but this is going to be the season that I pick all of the top 5!

[JasonEvans]

Between the strike uncertainty, the rose coming off the comic book bloom, and the lack of established tentpole films, I will freely say that this is the hardest contest we have ever had. I could make a really solid case for at least 10 of these films. Most significantly, unlike most years, there are no sure-things. Usually, there are a couple movies that 95% of us pick and we all know will be boxoffice superstars... I don't see anything I am super confident about this time around. Whew!!

[Phredd3]

I could have spent forever trying to figure this one out, but in the end, I just made a decision and let it rip. We will see. Really tough this time around, even without the complications of the strike.

[JasonEvans]

As always, I encourage everyone to post their picks and the rationale behind them.

[PackMan97]

Napoleon - Goodbye superheroes. Hello epic biographies and historical events
Wonka - Eh, it didn't seem as bad as the the Charlie movies.
The Color Purple - Many stars
Argyll - Looked like the only one that was worth seeing
Madame Web - I might bet against the Marvels, I'm not betting against Sony & Spider peoples.

[Phredd3]

At Jason's request, and in the order from his list:

• The Marvels - Girl-friendly superhero movies do well, and the original was $400+ million. This won't do that well, but it's as close to a lock as we have in the field.*
• Hunger Games Prequel - Also hits the girl superhero type vibe, and the originals were all quite successful. No Katniss is a minus, but the production values are stellar, and the IP is huge.*
• Trolls Band Together - For reasons that escape me, the original Trolls was wildly successful. The sequel wasn't, but that's 100% COVID. A kids movie at Thanksgiving is likely to be a hit.
• Aquaman 2 - Nobody liked Aquaman. Everybody saw Aquaman. Many people saw Aquaman more than once. Go figure. The sequel won't do $300+ mil, but it'll get plenty of eyeballs at Christmas.
• The Color Purple - This is a really tough pick, but a feel-good musical released on Christmas Day backed by Oprah and Spielberg seems likes it's bound to do well.

*I absolutely hate that these two movies, which scratch the same movie itch with the same target audience, are being released only one week apart.

Madame Web is probably where I slipped, and Argylle could be a sneaky hit, too. I'm personally thinking the Spidey vibe is fading, but that's quite a cast. I'm probably wrong to not include it.

[JasonEvans]

Oh snap... I was all ready to pick Madame Web, but then I looked at the folks behind the film. The screenwriters are Matt Sazama and Burk Sharpless. Here is a full list of their screenwriting credits:

Dracula Untold (2014) - 25% on RT
The Last Witch Hunter (2015) - 17% on RT
Gods of Egypt (2016) - 15% on RT
Power Rangers (2017) - 51% on RT
Morbius (2022) - 15% on RT

Now, it is worth noting that they were also the showrunners and chief writers on the Netflix Lost in Space show from 2018 - 2021 which was reasonably well received by critics... but still, that is one wretched list of genre flops.

I am now very, very, very concerned about Madame Web.

[Kdogg]

Everything is a crapshoot this winter so it's more of eliminating what I think will be less successful and seeing what's left.

Trolls Band Together - As stated earlier the first was a success. COVID hit the second one but it's popular on streaming. Kid's like it and their parents will at least tolerate if not appreciate the music. It should attract families.

Napoleon - Big epic historical war dramas tend to do well this time of year. I can't recall the last release of this type of genre film so it will be interesting to see if there's still demand. It's an Apple Film which generally have been good but not always a box office success.

The Color Purple - A movie from a musical (adopted from the book) doesn't always go well but when it does it's usually a blockbuster. It's got big stars, big backers and big production values. It's also going to get an extra push from a couple different segments of the populous.

Wonka - Once families move off of Trolls they move to Wonka.

Madame Web - This is my stretch. It's a spin off of Sony's Spiderverse films. Madame Web - Venom is terrible but popular. The last live action spinoff (Morbius) was a bust two times over because it was released in theaters. Madame Web is slotted in the Jan/Feb dump window so even the studio doesn't have much faith in it. Every once in awhile this window hit a box office home run and I'll place a long shot bet on this film.

I didn't pick the BoSaS because I think it's played out as is the YA genre. Mockingjay – Part 2 did bank but did not meet expectations and became the lowest performer of the series. Now they are trying without Katnis. I see it as the Fantastic Beasts of this universe but the third movie not even the first.

I didn't pick the Marvels because I think people are tired of Marvel right now. Both it and BoSaS are handicapped by the actors strike. They are not going to get the publicity that they will need. It's less of an issue with Trolls and hopefully will be resolved soon to give Joaquin Phoenix a chance to do the circuit.

[BLPOG]

Jason wasn't kidding, this poll is a tough one. I literally want to see none of these - might watch Napoleon if I'm really bored and it gets good reviews.

I'm still annoyed about them shifting Dune.

[JasonEvans]

Insane spread of votes this time. 10 of the films have gotten more than 20% support in our poll. There is no such thing as a lock as there isn't a single film at even 75% support.

About 3 days left to lock in your votes.

[JasonEvans]

Only 16 votes so far... just so everyone knows, the poll closes in about 24 hours (just minutes before the review embargo for The Marvels).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

For better or for worse, I know very little about any of these movies. I don't even have enough information to make a semi-educated guess.

I'd wager on sequels and prequels I guess. But I hear The Marvels is just terrible.