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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    FWIW, the "real" odds (Vegas) are something like:

    Utah - 20%
    Phoenix - 9%
    Denver - 6%
    LA Clippers - 23%
    Dallas - 5%
    Portland - 4%
    LA Lakers - 30%
    Golden St - 2%
    Memphis - 1%

    So, JE was not too far off outside of underrating the Clippers and overrating the Warriors.
    I wonder what Denver's "real" odds on a % basis were before the Murray injury. I bet they were at least double what they are now.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    I wonder what Denver's "real" odds on a % basis were before the Murray injury. I bet they were at least double what they are now.
    At least. Perhaps triple what they are now.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    FWIW, the "real" odds (Vegas) are something like:

    Utah - 20%
    Phoenix - 9%
    Denver - 6%
    LA Clippers - 23%
    Dallas - 5%
    Portland - 4%
    LA Lakers - 30%
    Golden St - 2%
    Memphis - 1%

    So, JE was not too far off outside of underrating the Clippers and overrating the Warriors.
    Is it possible those odds reflect how people are betting rather than what the oddsmakers think will actually happen?

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    FWIW, the "real" odds (Vegas) are something like:
    * * *
    Memphis - 1%
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Is it possible those odds reflect how people are betting rather than what the oddsmakers think will actually happen?
    For example, I believe (based on some rudimentary math) the odds of Memphis winning the conference are approximately one-tenth of 1%, rather than 1%. Maybe people will bet on Memphis with 100 to 1 odds (in which case it behooves the oddsmakers to offer it), but if the chance of the event occurring is really 1000 to 1 then it's a sucker bet, right?

    Isn't it possible that the same is true of all (or at least some) of the Vegas odds?

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    For example, I believe (based on some rudimentary math) the odds of Memphis winning the conference are approximately one-tenth of 1%, rather than 1%. Maybe people will bet on Memphis with 100 to 1 odds (in which case it behooves the oddsmakers to offer it), but if the chance of the event occurring is really 1000 to 1 then it's a sucker bet, right?

    Isn't it possible that the same is true of all (or at least some) of the Vegas odds?
    It's the same with the Lakers. Let's assume for the moment they have a 60% chance of beating Phoenix in an individual game, 55% chance of beating Denver in one game, and 50% chance of beating Utah (and I think all those estimates are high, especially since all three teams will have the home court advantage over the Lakers). In that case, they'd have a 71% chance of winning four out of seven against Phoenix, 61% chance against Denver, and 50% chance against Utah. To win all three, they'd have a 21.7% chance, far below the 30% set by the oddsmakers. They're the defending champs, and nobody wants to bet against LeBron, so maybe bettors will accept 3 to 1 odds, but in our hypothetical, it should really be closer to 5 to 1. Another sucker bet.

    Obviously I'm just making up the single-game numbers and I'm not taking home court into account, but if you drop those individual game odds to 55% against Phoenix, 52% against Denver, and 50% against Utah, then the Lakers' overall odds of winning the West drop to 16.5%, which personally I think is reasonable. Not your usual #7 seed, but like a strong #3 seed. YMMV.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Is it possible those odds reflect how people are betting rather than what the oddsmakers think will actually happen?
    Generally speaking I think this effect gets a little overplayed, but in this case I agree with you. Davis got effectively shut down for most of the Golden State game (by a very good defender, but still) and Lebron didn't look fully healthy to me either. If I'm right and those two guys are only at 80% or whatever, there's no reason to give the Lakers a gigantic bump in their odds relative to their seed and make them the favorite, unless it's just gaming the bets. IMO.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    So, upon reflection, my Memphis number was waaay too high. Ain't no way that team is making the finals. It should be in the tenths of a percent. Golden State is also probably high. Steph can carry them for a game or even several games but the notion that they would win 3 consecutive 7-game series against superior teams who have home court advantage... well, it ain't happening. I probably also overrated Dallas a little bit.

    I was just taking a stab at odds, not a ton of calculations or time invested, and am pleased that most seem to think I came somewhat close to reality. I do think that this year is a bit more wide open than usual in the West due to Covid and injures playing havoc with the regular season. I truly think a case can be made for at least 5 or 6 Western teams to reach the finals. That's probably 2-3 more than usual and that's why the odds are a bit more flat than we generally see.

    And we should not discount the fact that the unlikely does sometimes happen. I mean, would folks have really given Miami better than about a 10% chance of coming out of the East last season?

    -Jason "and, in a side note, Cassius Stanley got 11 points in 8 minutes last night for the defeated Pacers... that is a nice note to end your rookie season upon" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  8. #28
    I’m not sure if this has been said already above, but I really like this new format. Even though it looks like the format exposed that there is a significant quality drop off after the eighth seed (tonight‘s game may prove me wrong), I still like the format. It adds the one and done drama of the big dance, you know – the good kind of one and done, to the NBA playoffs. We get the equivalent of four game sevens and two semifinal match ups before the playoffs actually begin!

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Some good stuff from Grayson tonight. Hit a three from the right wing that was identical to the one he hit against Wisconsin when we were down 9 to give us life. Got a block flying in from the weak side like we saw him do many times at Duke. And unfortunately he missed a driving layup going to his right similar to drives he converted three times in the second half of that title game. It's possible I may have watched the replay of that game too many times 8-)

  10. #30
    Allen with back to back 3s after Golden State took the lead in OT. It was their first lead since the first quarter and they appeared ready to take over.

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Honolulu
    Some big time play by GA in this OT. Love to see it.

  12. #32
    Allen with 12 points, 4 rebounds, 4 steals and 1 assist in the big win for Memphis. He played every minute of OT. This was on the road against a Golden State team (and Curry, who was just named 1 of 3 finalists for MVP), who took the Lakers to the final minute in LA.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    I thought Memphis would have won in regulation if Allen had been in the game. They had one or two too many drive and dish plays to a guy who then shot a horrible three that had no chance.
    Allen hit two threes and had a steal in fairly quick succession in the OT. Instrumental in the win, in my opinion.

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Greensboro
    Grayson has earned respect with both his abilities and demeanor. He is a winner!

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    I thought Memphis would have won in regulation if Allen had been in the game. They had one or two too many drive and dish plays to a guy who then shot a horrible three that had no chance.
    Allen hit two threes and had a steal in fairly quick succession in the OT. Instrumental in the win, in my opinion.
    Hated the foul call late in regulation when Warrior Jordan Poole attempted a 3-point shot and pretty obviously kicked his leg out to draw contact.

    Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy were amazed that the Grizzlies did not contest the foul call. Poole made all 3 FTs to tighten up the game.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    I thought Memphis would have won in regulation if Allen had been in the game. They had one or two too many drive and dish plays to a guy who then shot a horrible three that had no chance.
    Allen hit two threes and had a steal in fairly quick succession in the OT. Instrumental in the win, in my opinion.
    AP Story had 591 words -- none were "Grayson" -- although he did have one shot covered on the lengthy video summary.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  17. #37
    Grayson Allen proving maybe staying at Duke for more than one year won’t kill your NBA career.

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    AP Story had 591 words -- none were "Grayson" -- although he did have one shot covered on the lengthy video summary.
    Noticed the same thing, even Memphis newspaper very long article didn’t discuss his role. We only hear about him if news is negative.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by arnie View Post
    Noticed the same thing, even Memphis newspaper very long article didn’t discuss his role. We only hear about him if news is negative.
    I seriously doubt that there's some sort of media bias against Grayson these days.

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I seriously doubt that there's some sort of media bias against Grayson these days.
    They played up Morant who is their star- who had a game that helps to build a brand- goes toe to toe with Curry and wins. All that said- Allen did his thing and I am sure his teammates appreciated his contribution to the win.

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