2021 NBA Playoffs Thread

[cato]

That was SEVEN YEARS AGO?!?! Holy crap time flies. For what it's worth, I thought the nickname was handy way to illustrate a potentially valid critique.

A potentially valid, but ultimately wrong critique. So it goes when debating Duke players generally, and the more controversial ones specifically. We are all wrong from time to time, even the most consistent folks who put a lot of thought and analysis into their comments. Even more recently in Boston, many people thought Kyrie was the problem on the Celts. Well, he obviously was not the solution for them, but their problems ran a lot deeper than Kyrie’s leadership.

Personally, I am very happy to see Kyrie on a team with two bigger alphas ahead of him in the pecking order. It takes the leadership burden off of him and let’s Kyrie just do his thing, supporting one player who is perhaps the best playoffs player of his generation (which is impressive, considering KD and LeBron share a generation) and playing off an incendiary point guard. My guess is that Kyrie is also happier in that mix.

Enough about Kyrie. Anyone want to discuss Grayson Allen?

[CDu]

A potentially valid, but ultimately wrong critique.

We will have to agree to disagree as to whether or not it was wrong. Taking the Duke slant away, I still think it was a fair assessment of his early Cavs years at that time. The statement made back then wasn't meant as a permanent assessment of what his career would become, just an assessment of where he was/had been to that point in his career. Obviously, he got much better after that. And, obviously, I wouldn't make the same comment about his career to date now.

[dudog84]

We will have to agree to disagree as to whether or not it was wrong. Taking the Duke slant away, I still think it was a fair assessment of his early Cavs years at that time. The statement made back then wasn't meant as a permanent assessment of what his career would become, just an assessment of where he was/had been to that point in his career. Obviously, he got much better after that. And, obviously, I wouldn't make the same comment about his career to date now.

Did he get that much better, or did he get LeBron? And now KD? Some guys are just meant to be Robin, not Batman. Nothing really wrong with that when you're making generational money anyway.

[CDu]

Did he get that much better, or did he get LeBron? And now KD? Some guys are just meant to be Robin, not Batman. Nothing really wrong with that when you're making generational money anyway.

Well, no doubt having LeBron and now KD and Harden have helped him, but he also got a lot better. In his first 3 years (and in 4 of his first 5 years), he was putting up a BPM in the 2-4 range, a WS/48 of in the 0.120-0.140 range, a PER of 20-21, and had a breakeven or net negative in ORtg/DRtg. Over his age 24-28 seasons, he's never had a WS/48 below 0.170 and frequently at/over .200, his PER has consistently been 23 or above, his BPM has generally been above 5 and often above 7, and his ORtg/DRtg differential has consistently been +5 or more and mostly +10. And that's with an increase in usage rate (from ~28% to over 30%), which usually results in players being less effective/efficient.

In short, he's become the offensive juggernaut that folks thought he was or hoped he'd be back in 2014. In 2014, he wasn't the fully-realized player he is today. And that was true even in Boston where he didn't have a KD or a LeBron or a Harden to play off of. He's easily one of the top handful of offensive players in the entire league now, whereas that wasn't where he was back in 2014. He was even an above average defensive player for a few years there (in Boston and last year), although that appears to have gone away this season.

[TheOldBattleship]

Austin was trending in part because of the moment in 2OT when he visibly thanked a higher power that Lillard finally missed a shot.

This was an amazing moment in a ridiculous game. Lillard was just incredible, and the non-Dame Blazers were... not incredible, especially late. Hoping they can push this one to seven games! Unlike the East first-rounders, this is a really fascinating series.

Meanwhile, I have no idea what to make of the Lakers right now. LeBron has been really good, but is clearly not healthy enough to do the "I'm getting to the rim literally whenever I want" superhero act that he usually pulls in the playoffs (no free throws this past game is a pretty easy tell-tale that he's not driving). Other than him pulling out one of the 40 point wonder-games or AD suddenly becoming healthy, you've gotta think they are done. They just don't have enough guys who are competent offensively to survive without multiple superstars right now. Safe to say that Schroeder and Drummond are costing themselves some hefty amounts of money with their respective vanishing acts...

[J4Kop99]

This was an amazing moment in a ridiculous game. Lillard was just incredible, and the non-Dame Blazers were... not incredible, especially late. Hoping they can push this one to seven games! Unlike the East first-rounders, this is a really fascinating series.

Meanwhile, I have no idea what to make of the Lakers right now. LeBron has been really good, but is clearly not healthy enough to do the "I'm getting to the rim literally whenever I want" superhero act that he usually pulls in the playoffs (no free throws this past game is a pretty easy tell-tale that he's not driving). Other than him pulling out one of the 40 point wonder-games or AD suddenly becoming healthy, you've gotta think they are done. They just don't have enough guys who are competent offensively to survive without multiple superstars right now. Safe to say that Schroeder and Drummond are costing themselves some hefty amounts of money with their respective vanishing acts...

Slight understatement but Schroeder turning down 4/84 looks like a mistake at this point. 0 points in the biggest game of the season.

Hard to call out a guy that is hurt but there was a bit of irony in AD sitting out a huge playoff game due to injury WHILE ALSO wearing a Kobe Bryant T-shirt. Say what you want about KB, and there is a lot of good and bad, but you had to rupture his achilles in order for him to sit out. And even then he famously stayed in to take his 2 FT's.

Barkley referring to AD as "street clothes" was quite funny. Draymond Green (a fellow Klutch athlete) trying to hold in his laughter was even funnier.

[cato]

We will have to agree to disagree as to whether or not it was wrong. Taking the Duke slant away, I still think it was a fair assessment of his early Cavs years at that time. The statement made back then wasn't meant as a permanent assessment of what his career would become, just an assessment of where he was/had been to that point in his career. Obviously, he got much better after that. And, obviously, I wouldn't make the same comment about his career to date now.

Fair enough. I recall being more optimistic about Kyrie’s ability to get into the top-10 player territory and, of course, I remember my optimism being closer to how things played out. ;-)

To the actual point, it was indeed a long time ago and certainly should be water under the bridge (starting around the time Kyrie hit a game winner in Game 7 of the NBA finals).

[ice-9]

He was even an above average defensive player for a few years there (in Boston and last year), although that appears to have gone away this season.

I've been told by people I trust that defensive EPM is probably the single best metric for evaluating a player's defense. By that metric, Kyrie is 55th percentile this season, so still above average and very much above average among guards.

By comparison, here's the defensive EPM of other notable guards:

Stephen Curry: 44
Damian Lillard: 33
Luka Doncic: 61
James Harden: 48
Zach Lavine: 44
Trae Young: 20
CJ McCollum: 31
Donovan Mitchell: 40
Bradley Beal: 23

Bonus, Tatum, who destroyed Kyrie in 1-on-1 coverage: 54

There's a perception that Kyrie is a bad defender but he's not in fact a bad defender. He's not a great one, don't get me wrong, but he's not nearly the liability that people even in this forum make him out to be.

[CDu]

I've been told by people I trust that defensive EPM is probably the single best metric for evaluating a player's defense. By that metric, Kyrie is 55th percentile this season, so still above average and very much above average among guards.

By comparison, here's the defensive EPM of other notable guards:

Stephen Curry: 44
Luka Doncic: 61
James Harden: 48
Zach Lavine: 44
Trae Young: 20
CJ McCollum: 31
Donovan Mitchell: 40
Bradley Beal: 23

Bonus, Tatum: 54

There's a perception that Kyrie is a bad defender but he's not in fact a bad defender. He's not a great one, don't get me wrong, but he's not nearly the liability that people even in this forum make him out to be.

Oh, I definitely don't think he's a liability on that end anymore either. And certainly he was above average at it the prior 3 years. It all depends on the metric this year as to whether he's average defensively or a bit below average or a bit above.

[DoubleBlue]

Seth Curry with 26 points so far, early in the 3rd quarter, Sixers lead 77-73 over Wash, playing without Joel Embiid. Curry is 9-13 overall and 3-4 from 3.
Embiid participated in warm-ups and looked fine. Hopefully he's back for Game 6 if needed, or the next series.

[DoubleBlue]

Curry finished with 30 points on 10-17 shooting, 3-6 from 3 and 7-7 FT. They needed him to step up with Embiid out.
Simmons had a triple double 19-10-11 and the Sixers put the Wizards away 4-1 with a 129-112 win.
Looks like they'll be playing Atlanta in the Eastern semis if the Hawk's lead holds up in tonights game.

[dukelifer]

Curry finished with 30 points on 10-17 shooting, 3-6 from 3 and 7-7 FT. They needed him to step up with Embiid out.
Simmons had a triple double 19-10-11 and the Sixers put the Wizards away 4-1 with a 129-112 win.
Looks like they'll be playing Atlanta in the Eastern semis if the Hawk's lead holds up in tonights game.

Curry was a big game player at Duke. He really transformed his game - a legit NBA starter.

[wilson]

Trae Young’s three in the middle of the Knick fans’ valedictory “hooray we made the playoffs” standing ovation was just mean, and as the kids would say, I am here for it.

[TheOldBattleship]

Nice that, on a night with three fairly noncompetitive closeout games of fairly noncompetitive series (apologies to the Knicks and the Grizz, both grinding to the last but pretty seriously outmatched), the Mavs/Clips game has been a doozy.

Mavs are playing interestingly huge, starting Boban/Porzingis/THJ/Finney-Smith/Luka, but the story is basically just that Luka has been absolutely unreal so far offensively. It's halftime and he's at... 27 and 8 assists?! The threes will get the attention (and fairly: when he's hitting like this and you have to close out hard, woof), but the getting into the lane and hitting his floater just totally panics this Clipper defense. Will be interesting to see if anyone else steps up to help shoulder the burden creating offense; this is pretty unsustainable stuff for a guy who still looks to me like he's feeling a bit of that neck soreness at times tonight even while he's playing this well.

Clips are moving the ball really well so far and getting a bit of something from nearly everyone (except, sigh, for poor Luke Kennard, who is pretty firmly tethered to the bench still). As people had been calling for, there's been a lot more Rondo and a lot less PatBev so far, and Rondo has actually had some good possessions on Luka defensively. Rotation's been super short so far: just Rondo and Zubac (looking GREAT against the huge Dallas lineup where he doesn't have to do as much chasing out of his comfort zone) with a smidge of Terrence Mann/Beverly off the bench. Both Kawhi/PG have been ok so far, but very much just taking what's come in the offense. The big question for me is whether either can impose their will on the game offensively a bit more in the second half.

[TheOldBattleship]

Mavs are playing interestingly huge, starting Boban/Porzingis/THJ/Finney-Smith/Luka, but the story is basically just that Luka has been absolutely unreal so far offensively... Will be interesting to see if anyone else steps up to help shoulder the burden creating offense; this is pretty unsustainable stuff for a guy who still looks to me like he's feeling a bit of that neck soreness at times tonight even while he's playing this well.

Relatedly, an important question for which I don't watch the Mavs enough to have any sense of an answer: long term, at this point, what is the plan for Porzingis? He looks just too slow to play effectively out on the perimeter on either end at this point, he is a finisher and occasional offensive rebounder but not much of a creator, and if teams are on a string defensively and close out to him well so that he can't just bomb threes over late defenders, what does he actually bring to the table? He's somewhere just north of bad rotating out and trying to cover ground on the perimeter defensively, but he's not a good rebounder and, honestly, just does not look like the rim protector he flashed being in NYC at this point.

He's been ok in this series, but not much more than that. Maybe it's the matchup, maybe it's that he's still a bit hurt, but the Mavs are locked into that huge contract, and I just don't what they do with a guy making that much money and putting up 15/4/1 and shooting 30% from three as a third (at best) option. Does anybody know if there's hopes that he's going to start looking better when healthier or in a slightly different role in the future with this team?

[JasonEvans]

He's been ok in this series, but not much more than that. Maybe it's the matchup, maybe it's that he's still a bit hurt, but the Mavs are locked into that huge contract, and I just don't what they do with a guy making that much money and putting up 15/4/1 and shooting 30% from three as a third (at best) option. Does anybody know if there's hopes that he's going to start looking better when healthier or in a slightly different role in the future with this team?

Yikes, I did not realize they had 3 more years of Porzingas at $31, $33, and $36 mil each. That last year is a player option year, but I'd say the odds are pretty good that Porzingas opts to exercise a $36 mil year in 2023-24. He has been injured and underwhelming. Pretty much any other $30+ mil cap dude would be better than him, right? Luka is young and has a long time left as a championship level leader of your team... but you still hate to be wasting years where having another legit star could put your team in strong NBA finals contending territory.

[JasonEvans]

Trae Young’s three in the middle of the Knick fans’ valedictory “hooray we made the playoffs” standing ovation was just mean, and as the kids would say, I am here for it.

And took a bow... must be seen to be believed!

[wsb3]

Curry finished with 30 points on 10-17 shooting, 3-6 from 3 and 7-7 FT. They needed him to step up with Embiid out.
Simmons had a triple double 19-10-11 and the Sixers put the Wizards away 4-1 with a 129-112 win.
Looks like they'll be playing Atlanta in the Eastern semis if the Hawk's lead holds up in tonights game.

I have very minimal interest in the NBA but I would love for the Sixers to win because of Curry. That is a great stat line.

[DoubleBlue]

I have very minimal interest in the NBA but I would love for the Sixers to win because of Curry. That is a great stat line.

Seth doesn't often settle for contested 3's, he regularly drives for layups or a mid-range 2, or kicks it out to Green or others for an open 3.

[WillJ]

I watched the Hawks/Knicks game last night and was impressed with the Hawks. Trae Young is a really good offensive player (duh, I know), but the rest of the team holds together better than I had realized. I would not be surprised to see them give the Sixers a good run, with or without Embid.

I've been cold and hot on RJ as a future star and was really pleased to see his improvement on 3's this year, but this game sent me back towards the view that he can't be the second best player on a really good team. He's a hard worker, however, so I hope he proves me wrong....but he's going to have to get a lot better to be a star.

Jayson Tatum, on the other hand...holy $^$%$&. I think he's nibbling at top 10 status.

Overall, for you non-NBA fans out there, jump in, the water is nice and the skill level has never been higher.