Tokyo Olympics Basketball (July 25 - Aug. 7)

[uh_no]

People are also so incredibly bad at thinking about how frequently something with a 12.5% chance of occurring actually occurs. The odds of you having twins is around 4%. Think how many twins you know.

I mean, 12.5 is 3x more likely than 4...and when I was a kid in school, I knew lots of twins. It's not something that comes up much in adult life, since it's not like you go into work and people announce they have a twin living 3 states over, so people probably underestimate the amount of twins they know as adults.

[ClemmonsDevil]

I mean, 12.5 is 3x more likely than 4...and when I was a kid in school, I knew lots of twins. It's not something that comes up much in adult life, since it's not like you go into work and people announce they have a twin living 3 states over, so people probably underestimate the amount of twins they know as adults.

This happened during the 2016 election. People are so bad at mathing that they think that 12.5% is 0%. Something happening 12.5% of the time is a crap ton. If you wrecked 12.5% of the time you drove your car that would be disconcerting.

[ClemmonsDevil]

I mean, 12.5 is 3x more likely than 4...and when I was a kid in school, I knew lots of twins. It's not something that comes up much in adult life, since it's not like you go into work and people announce they have a twin living 3 states over, so people probably underestimate the amount of twins they know as adults.

Also I think about this a lot as an adult but I work in a neonatal Intensive Care Unit. Where it seems like everyone has multiples.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Okay, so my skepticism is two-fold:

I would not be "stunned" if the US lost

And

I think there's far more than a 12% chance that they lose.

[dukelifer]

Okay, so my skepticism is two-fold:

I would not be "stunned" if the US lost

And

I think there's far more than a 12% chance that they lose.

Hard to believe this will not be a close game- and in a close game- it comes down to execution.

[Steven43]

Hard to believe this will not be a close game- and in a close game- it comes down to execution.

Execution seems way too dramatic of a punishment. It’s just a game after all.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Execution seems way too dramatic of a punishment. It’s just a game after all.

Must spread comments from the presidential thread I assume, but I was getting ready to make this joke. Strong work.

[DevilHorse]

The US has been tapped as a 12 point favorite against Australia by bookies around the world. The men are -350 to win the gold medal. The women, by the way, are -650 to win the gold. That -350 implies about a 77% chance that Team USA will win the men's tournament. The -650 converts to almost an 87% chance the women win the gold.

I'd love to see the math on this. I looked up converting the +spread/-spread to percentage, and it is missing something. It fails to include the amount of money that the house takes out of the pot. In pari-mutual betting, like you have with horse racing, if you add up all of the odds for the horses in a race, or the basketball tournament at vegas, you would not get 1. That is because (obviously) the house doesn't want a net payout of 0. So until you know what percentage of the bets that the house is taking out, you can't calculate the conversion from spread to %-age chance. But the numbers look reasonable.

BTW, what are the 'odds' of living with twins or multiples? I live with 3 other people. All of them are twins.

Larry
DevilHorse

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

BTW, what are the 'odds' of living with twins or multiples? I live with 3 other people. All of them are twins.

Larry
DevilHorse

At that point I believe they're called "triplets."

[ClemmonsDevil]

BTW, what are the 'odds' of living with twins or multiples? I live with 3 other people. All of them are twins.

Larry
DevilHorse

Low. Very, very low. I married a twin.

[uh_no]

At that point I believe they're called "triplets."

I mean, one of them could be his wife...with a pair of twins for children. If they are also triplets, that raises some very serious ethical issues...

[DevilHorse]

At that point I believe they're called "triplets."

I married a twin and we had twins. Almost..though.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

I mean, one of them could be his wife...with a pair of twins for children. If they are also triplets, that raises some very serious ethical issues...

Bingo!

Larry
DevilHorse

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I married a twin and we had twins. Almost..though.

Larry
DevilHorse

It was a joke. Not a good one.

[ClemmonsDevil]

It was a joke. Not a good one.

I liked it.

[Steven43]

Bingo!

Larry
DevilHorse

Larry, I’ve been meaning to ask you for several years now: What exactly is a devil horse?

As an aside, my name (middle) is also Larry. I’m hoping that I was named after Larry Bird🍀, though I’m not sure.

[OldPhiKap]

As an aside, my name (middle) is also Larry. I’m hoping that I was named after Larry Bird🍀, though I’m not sure.

Do you happen to have brothers with “Curly,” “Moe” or “Shemp” as middle names?

Just, y’know . . . asking.

;-)

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Do you happen to have brothers with “Curly,” “Moe” or “Shemp” as middle names?

Just, y’know . . . asking.

;-)

Going down a similar path, I was thinking Darryl and Darryl.

[OldPhiKap]

Going down a similar path, I was thinking Darryl and Darryl.

My two favorite Larry’s have a link to the original M*A*S*H* television show — Larry Linville (a/k/a Frank Burns a/k/a/ “Ferret Face”) and a short-lived sit-com called “Hello, Larry” starring McLean Stevenson (Colonel Henry Blake) for which I had high (but ultimately dashed) hopes. But McLean was still OK in my book.

[OldPhiKap]

Throwback: