Tokyo Olympics Basketball (July 25 - Aug. 7)

[ClemmonsDevil]

Not a fan of Pop! Arrogant condescending man. Like Tatum, but would like to see Pop squirm if they don't get the Gold!

My initial thought was to clap back against this, but then I remembered Dean Smith coached the Olympic team in '76. My family pulled for the Soviets.

[phaedrus]

Slept through my alarm, woke up at 2am, been watching this Q4. Tatum making a lot of plays. Rubio playing like an MVP. Let’s finish this thing.

I'm not sure what this says about anything (maybe nothing), bur Rubio - who scored 38 against the US last night, 9 more than Kevin Durant - has a career NBA scoring average of 11 ppg, averaged 8.6 ppg last season, and has a career high of 34 points.

[Duke79UNLV77]

I'm hoping all the heavy criticism of Pop and the national team was as premature as the eagerness to fire Budenholzer, dismiss the Greek Freak as a truly great player, and give up on his supporting cast a few times along their championship run.

[CDu]

USA gets Australia in the semis after the Aussies destroyed Argentina. A nice rematch opportunity for the loss in Las Vegas.

The team appears to be getting more familiar with one another. Hopefully that combined with the increase in talent (Booker, Holiday, and Middleton playing now instead of Garland, Johnson, Grant (who is on the roster but basically not playing), and Beal) they should be able to emerge victorious.

[roywhite]

I'm not sure what this says about anything (maybe nothing), bur Rubio - who scored 38 against the US last night, 9 more than Kevin Durant - has a career NBA scoring average of 11 ppg, averaged 8.6 ppg last season, and has a career high of 34 points.

https://results.nbcolympics.com/bask...final-2/677583

Yet Rubio had a +/- of -23 in a game where the score differential was 14. A good team should generally beat a lesser team where one player had a huge game. We may test that theory against Slovenia.

[ClemmonsDevil]

https://results.nbcolympics.com/bask...final-2/677583

Yet Rubio had a +/- of -23 in a game where the score differential was 14. A good team should generally beat a lesser team where one player had a huge game. We may test that theory against Slovenia.

Yep. Turn Rubio into a scorer. He can beat you with a 27/17 game. But can't beat you as a scorer. I am generally of the opinion that great guards simply can't be contained. Ball handling is simply to good to be defended without a trap, and trapping leads to open 3s and losses. Defend PGs on an island and make them one dimensional.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The women blew out Australia 79-55 to move to the semis. Chelsea Gray had 7 points in 19 minutes off the bench. She also led the team with 8 assists.

[Truth&Justise]

USA gets Australia in the semis after the Aussies destroyed Argentina. A nice rematch opportunity for the loss in Las Vegas.

The team appears to be getting more familiar with one another. Hopefully that combined with the increase in talent (Booker, Holiday, and Middleton playing now instead of Garland, Johnson, Grant (who is on the roster but basically not playing), and Beal) they should be able to emerge victorious.

On underrated aspect I hadn't realized: there are fewer games at the Olympic this year. In years past, the 12 teams were in two groups of six. Playing each other once meant five group stage games. Then three knockout rounds.

Now the 12 teams are in three groups of four, so each team plays only three group stage games before the quarterfinals. It doesn't seem like a huge change, but that's 40% fewer group stage games.

Agree that Team USA is looking better each game. If this tournament lasted two more weeks I'd feel extremely bullish about our chances. But we don't have that time, have to do it on the fly. And the margin for error is much lower now that we're down to the clear top-4 teams in the tournament.

Alas, my days of watching a game until 2:30 AM are behind me, so I'll have to wait for the headlines in the morning, and gird myself against waking up to "Australia STUNS United States" headlines.

[Steven43]

….I'll have to wait for the headlines in the morning, and gird myself against waking up to "Australia STUNS United States" headlines.

Come on now, TJ, think only positive thoughts.

Let’s go, Team USA!!
🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

On underrated aspect I hadn't realized: there are fewer games at the Olympic this year. In years past, the 12 teams were in two groups of six. Playing each other once meant five group stage games. Then three knockout rounds.

Now the 12 teams are in three groups of four, so each team plays only three group stage games before the quarterfinals. It doesn't seem like a huge change, but that's 40% fewer group stage games.

Agree that Team USA is looking better each game. If this tournament lasted two more weeks I'd feel extremely bullish about our chances. But we don't have that time, have to do it on the fly. And the margin for error is much lower now that we're down to the clear top-4 teams in the tournament.

Alas, my days of watching a game until 2:30 AM are behind me, so I'll have to wait for the headlines in the morning, and gird myself against waking up to "Australia STUNS United States" headlines.

I somehow doubt folks would be stunned.

[Truth&Justise]

I somehow doubt folks would be stunned.

Anyone paying attention to this tournament would not be. But that's almost certainly what the headlines would be.

[JasonEvans]

Anyone paying attention to this tournament would not be. But that's almost certainly what the headlines would be.

The US has been tapped as a 12 point favorite against Australia by bookies around the world. The men are -350 to win the gold medal. The women, by the way, are -650 to win the gold. That -350 implies about a 77% chance that Team USA will win the men's tournament. The -650 converts to almost an 87% chance the women win the gold.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The US has been tapped as a 12 point favorite against Australia by bookies around the world. The men are -350 to win the gold medal. The women, by the way, are -650 to win the gold. That -350 implies about a 77% chance that Team USA will win the men's tournament. The -650 converts to almost an 87% chance the women win the gold.

Even so, who would be "stunned" if Team USA lost their next game?

[JasonEvans]

Even so, who would be "stunned" if Team USA lost their next game?

Well, depends on your definition of "stunned." The bookies have the US at -700 to beat the Aussies, which is an 87.5% chance of winning the game. Does something that happens 1 time in 8 qualify as stunning?

[budwom]

Pops poking his middle finger up thru his gravesite dirt...this should be interesting.

[uh_no]

Well, depends on your definition of "stunned." The bookies have the US at -700 to beat the Aussies, which is an 87.5% chance of winning the game. Does something that happens 1 time in 8 qualify as stunning?

it shouldn't be...but humans are hilariously bad at evaluating tail risk. If KP said Duke had an 87.5% chance of winning a first round NCAA game, I think we'd call it a pretty stunning loss.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

it shouldn't be...but humans are hilariously bad at evaluating tail risk. If KP said Duke had an 87.5% chance of winning a first round NCAA game, I think we'd call it a pretty stunning loss.

I mean, I guess I'm quite skeptical that Team USA has an 87.5% chance of victory.

[uh_no]

I mean, I guess I'm quite skeptical that Team USA has an 87.5% chance of victory.

I concur.

[budwom]

I mean, I guess I'm quite skeptical that Team USA has an 87.5% chance of victory.

But I could see the money rolling in on Team USA, hence the odds.

[ClemmonsDevil]

it shouldn't be...but humans are hilariously bad at evaluating tail risk. If KP said Duke had an 87.5% chance of winning a first round NCAA game, I think we'd call it a pretty stunning loss.

People are also so incredibly bad at thinking about how frequently something with a 12.5% chance of occurring actually occurs. The odds of you having twins is around 4%. Think how many twins you know.