MBB: Dork Polls, 2021-22

[goduke03861]

Great info from DBA. I would say overall that this initial NET ranking looks much more "reasonable" than the initial rankings have looked in past seasons. It usually takes a while for the metrics to settle, but other than LSU being an outlier these are within range of the human polls with Purdue being at the top as expected.

We are currently 1-1 in Q1 games and would likely need to go 3-1 in our four scheduled Q1 games and win either the ACC regular season or ACCT to be in the hunt for a #1 seed. We may need to win both given our overall SOS. With that said I also expect there to be significant movement in the NET rankings between now and March, so maybe we'll have more opportunities to pick up quality wins.

Just a small note, Duke is 2-1 in quad 1. Wins over the zags and kentucky.

[Billy Dat]

Cool scoring efficiency visualization for current top 5

point per shot.jpg

[JasonEvans]

Cool scoring efficiency visualization for current top 5

point per shot.jpg

Purdue and Gonzaga just plain do not shoot mid-range jumpers. Least efficient shot in basketball and they avoid it like the plague. UCLA loves the mid-range shot.

What do the different colors represent?

[uh_no]

Purdue and Gonzaga just plain do not shoot mid-range jumpers. Least efficient shot in basketball and they avoid it like the plague. UCLA loves the mid-range shot.

What do the different colors represent?

key is on there. points/shot vs average (so, points per shot).

[CDu]

key is on there. points/shot vs average (so, points per shot).

Interestingly, while we are taking apparently a higher percentage of those low-percentage 2s, we make them at an extraordinarily high rate. So they don't end up being inefficient shots for us, which is part of why we have a top-10 offense.

Where we appear to struggle is in the corner 3s and top-of-the-key 3s. Interestingly, we shoot wing 3s pretty well apparently.

[Phredd3]

Where we appear to struggle is in the corner 3s and top-of-the-key 3s. Interestingly, we shoot wing 3s pretty well apparently.

Yeah, I found this odd, as well. "The book" says that corner threes are the best shot in basketball, but we don't seem to take a lot of them, and when we do, we apparently miss a lot of them. Purdue absolutely feasts out there, but we hate it. Strange.

[CDu]

Yeah, I found this odd, as well. "The book" says that corner threes are the best shot in basketball, but we don't seem to take a lot of them, and when we do, we apparently miss a lot of them. Purdue absolutely feasts out there, but we hate it. Strange.

Small addendum is that the corner 3 has a bit lower value relative to the NBA. It's only slightly shorter a shot in college (3 inches shorter in the corners), whereas in the NBA it's almost 2 feet shorter a shot. So any benefit in college is strictly a function of how much more open shooters are in the corners than elsewhere.

But yeah, it's interesting that we shoot those so poorly.

[MarkD83]

Yeah, I found this odd, as well. "The book" says that corner threes are the best shot in basketball, but we don't seem to take a lot of them, and when we do, we apparently miss a lot of them. Purdue absolutely feasts out there, but we hate it. Strange.

I think the "The book" on corner 3s relies heavily on that fact that they are a shorter shot due to the shape of the 3 point line.

[CDu]

I think the "The book" on corner 3s relies heavily on that fact that they are a shorter shot due to the shape of the 3 point line.

I think there is competing theory on this. While it's certainly shorter in the NBA, there is evidence to suggest that the distance is not the reason:
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/s...of%20the%20arc.

In short, the argument is that it's more due to how open guys are in that area of the court compared to other spots.

Full disclosue: in the college game, the corner 3 is only a few inches shorter than everywhere else on the floor, and in high school there is no difference.

[Billy Dat]

Duke looking good in transition
Points off Transition.jpg

[Kedsy]

Duke looking good in transition
Points off Transition.jpg

It's also impressive that Duke held Kentucky (by far the transition points leader in the graph) to only 7 fast break points when we played them.

[Billy Dat]

@JGTrends graphic on Duke's rising turnover rate

Duke Turnover Trends.jpg

[sagegrouse]

Cool scoring efficiency visualization for current top 5

point per shot.jpg

For those of us with a biological aversion to color-coded charts, would some kind soul post the obvious points about each team's efficiency. (I can see the degree of aversion to mid-range shots.)

Thanks.

[uh_no]

@JGTrends graphic on Duke's rising turnover rate

Duke Turnover Trends.jpg

rising turnover rate? that looks a lot like statistical noise to me.

[CDu]

rising turnover rate? that looks a lot like statistical noise to me.

Agreed. Especially given the COVID disruption and the exams break (the SC St game came after a 2-week layoff and is our second-worst data point).

Basically, I see a really amazing data point (the Citadel) and a really bad data point (Miami), and everything else is floating around in the 10-20% range. If you take out the best and worst games, there is basically a flat trend line around 15%.

I guess it is worth keeping an eye on, but if tonight's data point winds up around 10%, then the narrative pretty much goes away.

[CDu]

For those of us with a biological aversion to color-coded charts, would some kind soul post the obvious points about each team's efficiency. (I can see the degree of aversion to mid-range shots.)

Thanks.

Basically just a heat map (number of shots and how well they shoot them relative to average) for different areas of the court.

Duke shoots a TON at the rim and does fairly well at it. We shoot the midrange better than most. We are relatively poor from the corners and top of the key, but are (or were, at the time this was posted back in mid-December) good from the wing 3s.

Purdue is elite at the rim (no shock there with their two monster bigs), corner 3s, and top of the key to the left wing 3s. They are poor in the short-mid-range and right wing.

Baylor is similar to us at the rim and in the short-mid-range, but not as good as us from 15-18 feet. They are great from the left corner 3 and good from the top of the key, but bad everywhere else from 3.

UCLA is elite from 3, and very good in the short-midrange, but bad at the rim and in the longer midrange.

Gonzaga is elite at the rim and in the midrange (though they don't shot a ton in the midrange), and good to elite from the left side of the court from 3. But bad from the right wing 3.

[jv001]

I just looked at the Pomeroy Rankings and saw these stats.

Duke is the only ACC team in the top 20 at #10. ADJO= #11..ADJD= #19.
Next are the Cheats from Chapel Hell at #24. ADJO= #13..ADJD= #73.
VT is at #31 with a 9-7 record.
Wake looking pretty good at #48 with a 14-4 record.
FSU is #54 with ADJO= #88...ADJD= #35. (goes along with DavidBens's analysis)
ND #55
Clemson #57
Virginia #79
Cuse #82
Miami #85
The rest of the conference doesn't crack the top 100: Louisville #101, NC State #108, GT #122, BC # 132 and Pitt #166(not looking good for Jeff).

This is a really bad year the ACC which was once considered the top conference in college basketball.
The home loss to Miami isn't doing Duke any favors in post season seedings.

GoDuke!

[arnie]

Duke #6 in AP: Cheats not in and only got a few votes. Interesting to see the overall disdain for Cheats and rest of ACC.

Edit: Cheats got 0 votes.��

[brevity]

Duke #6 in AP: Cheats not in and only got a few votes. Interesting to see the overall disdain for Cheats and rest of ACC.

Edit: Cheats got 0 votes.��

AP is not really a dork poll, but given some of its voters...

College Poll Tracker shows that UNC got 2 points and tied for 38th. They appeared on Dick Vitale's ballot, and he ranked them 24th.

[arnie]

AP is not really a dork poll, but given some of its voters...

College Poll Tracker shows that UNC got 2 points and tied for 38th. They appeared on Dick Vitale's ballot, and he ranked them 24th.

I’ll call the coaches poll dorky too. We are 5th, Miami would be 26th and Cheats in middle of others getting votes pack