MBB: Dork Polls, 2021-22

[jv001]

I took a look at T-Rank(www.barttorvik.com) this morning and Duke is rated #10 and the highest ACC ranking team.

Duke #10
Cheats #21
Louisville #23
FSU #27
ND #29
VT #46
Clemson #50
Syracuse #64
Virginia #69
NC State #74
GT #77
Miami #86
Wake #101
BC #133
PITT #158

And for our UCONN fan they are #18

[English]

I took a look at T-Rank(www.barttorvik.com) this morning and Duke is rated #10 and the highest ACC ranking team.

Duke #10
Cheats #21
Louisville #23
FSU #27
ND #29
VT #46
Clemson #50
Syracuse #64
Virginia #69
NC State #74
GT #77
Miami #86
Wake #101
BC #133
PITT #158

And for our UCONN fan they are #18

Wow, Virginia, NICE.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Jeff Sagarin's College Basketball Ratings have been posted for the 2021-22 season.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm

Duke debuts at #6

[DavidBenAkiva]

It appears that ESPN's BPI is also live for the 2021-22 season.

Duke is #14 there.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi

[CDu]

After last night's beatdown, our defensive rating at both KenPom and BartTorvik has reached top-20 status (9th in KP, 16th in BT). Offense is 10th in Torvik and 14th in KP. The offensive efficiency is up a tad from last week. Defensive efficiency is slightly up on KenPom but up from 30th on Torvik.

A lot to like after a seemingly more questionable (understandable, given the Moore injury) result against Campbell.

Hopefully we build upon this against the next two warmup games in advance of our last two high-profile out-of-conference games.

Interestingly, we are a sliver away from Torvik projecting us as the favorite in every one of our ACC games (currently only the @FSU game has us the dog, a 0.1 point underdog). Which is a combination of our strong start as well as the conference's lackluster play.

[CDu]

With FSU's lackluster win over Tulane, Duke is now favored in every ACC game this year. Albeit 3 of those are virtual toss-ups: @ND (-0.8); @FSU (-0.3), @Louisville (-0.4). Torvik expects us to go 15-5 in conference, two games clear of a jumbled mess of teams in the 11-9 to 13-7 range.

It's still really early, and there aren't many meaningful data points yet. Several teams (FSU and UNC most notably) are adjusting to significant roster and/or coaching turnover. But things look promising for us right now.

[flyingdutchdevil]

With FSU's lackluster win over Tulane, Duke is now favored in every ACC game this year. Albeit 3 of those are virtual toss-ups: @ND (-0.8); @FSU (-0.3), @Louisville (-0.4). Torvik expects us to go 15-5 in conference, two games clear of a jumbled mess of teams in the 11-9 to 13-7 range.

It's still really early, and there aren't many meaningful data points yet. Several teams (FSU and UNC most notably) are adjusting to significant roster and/or coaching turnover. But things look promising for us right now.

Sooooooooo...

Safe to say the ACC is pretty awful this year. When was the last time the ACC had this little top tier talent?

Big 12 and Big 10 looking amazing.

[JasonEvans]

Safe to say the ACC is pretty awful this year. When was the last time the ACC had this little top tier talent?

Big 12 and Big 10 looking amazing.

I agree that the ACC looks pretty bad. Several bad losses and even close wins seem to indicate that teams that have recently been at the top of the conference (Virginia, Louisville, and FSU especially) are stepping back. Still, the dork poll rankings are still largely based on the "best guess" made in the pre-season and thus contain a good bit of bias that may be skewing things.

Here are some ACC teams that I think could be better than the polls are saying right now --

Va Tech - They have not played anyone of note but at least they have beaten the mediocre clubs they have played pretty impressively. Their 20 point win against Navy (a club that beat Virginia) is the closest VT has come to having a competitive contest. We will learn a lot more about VT next week when they play Memphis.

Syracuse has also won all their games easily so far, against without really playin anyone of note. Joe Girard is yet to miss a 3-point shot this season (8-for-8). If he keeps that up, they Orangemen will be a tough out

Clemson is 3-0 and has a nice 8 point win over a fairly good mid-major in Wofford. Soph C PJ Hall ha been a revelation. He went outside to hit 3-4 threes against Wofford and then went inside to hit 7-12 twos the very next game. As a team, Clemson is hitting better than 46% from three. Only a 3 game sample size, but if they are a team that can consistently hit 40% of their threes then they are going to be quite dangerous this year.

And, much a I hate to say it, given the experience and talent on their roster, I strongly suspect UNC can play with anyone in the land this year. Sigh...

Bottom line, it just feels to early to have a really good sense of anything yet.

Oh, and as for those other conference that are such juggernauts --

Michigan lost to Seton Hall, Illinois fell to Marquette, Maryland dropped a game against George Mason, and Wisconsin lost to Providence (Big East is beating up on the Big Ten). I have no idea why the computers and others are so high on Iowa. They lost Luka Garza and two other solid contributors and added... Filip Rebrača. I am not saying the ACC is better than the Big Ten, but I have not yet seen evidence in actual game results that the Big Ten is on some different tier from the other top conferences.

[uh_no]

I agree that the ACC looks pretty bad. Several bad losses and even close wins seem to indicate that teams that have recently been at the top of the conference (Virginia, Louisville, and FSU especially) are stepping back. Still, the dork poll rankings are still largely based on the "best guess" made in the pre-season and thus contain a good bit of bias that may be skewing things.

Here are some ACC teams that I think could be better than the polls are saying right now --

Va Tech - They have not played anyone of note but at least they have beaten the mediocre clubs they have played pretty impressively. Their 20 point win against Navy (a club that beat Virginia) is the closest VT has come to having a competitive contest. We will learn a lot more about VT next week when they play Memphis.

Syracuse has also won all their games easily so far, against without really playin anyone of note. Joe Girard is yet to miss a 3-point shot this season (8-for-8). If he keeps that up, they Orangemen will be a tough out

Clemson is 3-0 and has a nice 8 point win over a fairly good mid-major in Wofford. Soph C PJ Hall ha been a revelation. He went outside to hit 3-4 threes against Wofford and then went inside to hit 7-12 twos the very next game. As a team, Clemson is hitting better than 46% from three. Only a 3 game sample size, but if they are a team that can consistently hit 40% of their threes then they are going to be quite dangerous this year.

Bottom line, it just feels to early to have a really good sense of anything yet.

Oh, and as for those other conference that are such juggernauts --

Michigan lost to Seton Hall, Illinois fell to Marquette, Maryland dropped a game against George Mason, and Wisconsin lost to Providence (Big East is beating up on the Big Ten). I have no idea why the computers and others are so high on Iowa. They lost Luka Garza and two other solid contributors and added... Filip Rebrača. I am not saying the ACC is better than the Big Ten, but I have not yet seen evidence in actual game results that the Big Ten is on some different tier from the other top conferences.

it hurts for the last couple years we haven't had a serious nationally relevant team. Obviously we believe duke to be this year, but nobody else is really stepping up to the plate.

[Bluedog]

it hurts for the last couple years we haven't had a serious nationally relevant team. Obviously we believe duke to be this year, but nobody else is really stepping up to the plate.

Two years ago, we had FSU ranked #4, Duke #11, Louisville #14 and UVA #16. I'd say that's decently relevant but there was no NCAA tournament to see how it played out.

And the year before that, the NCAA champion was UVa.

But yeah, last year certainly was down for the conference.

[uh_no]

Two years ago, we had FSU ranked #4, Duke #11, Louisville #14 and UVA #16. I'd say that's decently relevant but there was no NCAA tournament to see how it played out.

And the year before that, the NCAA champion was UVa.

But yeah, last year certainly was down for the conference.

you're right. i was just considering "last couple of years" this and last.

[TheOldBattleship]

Big 12 and Big 10 looking amazing.

No argument about the relative spots the Big 12 and ACC find themselves in, but, while it might well just be a blip in the long run, it's been an ACCish last few days for the Big Ten. George Mason over Maryland at Maryland, Seton Hall over Michigan at Michigan, and Marquette over Illinois in Milwaukee (and Indiana at home escaping St. Johns yesterday wasn't amazingly impressive either). None of those losses other than Maryland/GMU are bad in isolation, but, taken together, they should put at least a small dent in the inevitable "Big Ten is the best conference and they just beat up on each other" discourse that will inevitably start up heading into conference play.

[CDu]

I agree that the ACC looks pretty bad. Several bad losses and even close wins seem to indicate that teams that have recently been at the top of the conference (Virginia, Louisville, and FSU especially) are stepping back. Still, the dork poll rankings are still largely based on the "best guess" made in the pre-season and thus contain a good bit of bias that may be skewing things.

Here are some ACC teams that I think could be better than the polls are saying right now --

Va Tech - They have not played anyone of note but at least they have beaten the mediocre clubs they have played pretty impressively. Their 20 point win against Navy (a club that beat Virginia) is the closest VT has come to having a competitive contest. We will learn a lot more about VT next week when they play Memphis.

Syracuse has also won all their games easily so far, against without really playin anyone of note. Joe Girard is yet to miss a 3-point shot this season (8-for-8). If he keeps that up, they Orangemen will be a tough out

Clemson is 3-0 and has a nice 8 point win over a fairly good mid-major in Wofford. Soph C PJ Hall ha been a revelation. He went outside to hit 3-4 threes against Wofford and then went inside to hit 7-12 twos the very next game. As a team, Clemson is hitting better than 46% from three. Only a 3 game sample size, but if they are a team that can consistently hit 40% of their threes then they are going to be quite dangerous this year.

And, much a I hate to say it, given the experience and talent on their roster, I strongly suspect UNC can play with anyone in the land this year. Sigh...

Bottom line, it just feels to early to have a really good sense of anything yet.

Oh, and as for those other conference that are such juggernauts --

Michigan lost to Seton Hall, Illinois fell to Marquette, Maryland dropped a game against George Mason, and Wisconsin lost to Providence (Big East is beating up on the Big Ten). I have no idea why the computers and others are so high on Iowa. They lost Luka Garza and two other solid contributors and added... Filip Rebrača. I am not saying the ACC is better than the Big Ten, but I have not yet seen evidence in actual game results that the Big Ten is on some different tier from the other top conferences.

I would also not yet say that FSU snd Louisville are definitely taking a step back, despite less than stellar starts. Both teams had tremendous roster turnover, so it could be that they take a step back or could be that they just take time to find their form.

[ChillinDuke]

<snip>

And, much a I hate to say it, given the experience and talent on their roster, I strongly suspect UNC can play with anyone in the land this year. Sigh...

<snip>

I guess? I mean I sorta agree with the talent/experience on paper. But the defense has been bad. All three of their wins have been shaky at best against pretty below-average competition, down at the half to both Brown and CofC.

I mean, we'd be pretty nervous if that was our resume to date, right? More than nervous, I suspect.

- Chillin

[CDu]

I guess? I mean I sorta agree with the talent/experience on paper. But the defense has been bad. All three of their wins have been shaky at best against pretty below-average competition, down at the half to both Brown and CofC.

I mean, we'd be pretty nervous if that was our resume to date, right? More than nervous, I suspect.

- Chillin

Yeah, they have definitely not looked good so far defensively. Offensively they've been good, but they aren't stopping anyone right now. That said, they too have an opportunity for major in-season growth, as they have had both a substantial roster turnover AND are now playing a new and fairly different system.

[House P]

I guess? I mean I sorta agree with the talent/experience on paper. But the defense has been bad. All three of their wins have been shaky at best against pretty below-average competition, down at the half to both Brown and CofC.

I mean, we'd be pretty nervous if that was our resume to date, right? More than nervous, I suspect.

- Chillin

Torvik's site has a feature which allows you to calculate ratings which aren't influenced by pre-season predictions.

This early in the season, ratings are particularly predictive without the preseason component (outliers are highly likely to regress towards their preseason rating), but they give an indication of how a team has performed in their first couple of games. In short, the ACC has been awful - outside of Virginia Tech and Duke.

Here is where each ACC team would be rated nationally if preseason rating weren't considered.

8. Virginia Tech
28. Duke
57. Syracuse
74. Florida St.
76. Georgia Tech
80. Boston College
81. Wake Forest
87. Clemson
95. Louisville
113. Miami FL
126. Notre Dame
147. NC State
165. North Carolina
190. Virginia
280. Pitt

If these ratings held up (they won't), the ACC would be the 7th best conference - behind the WCC and barely ahead of the MWC and AAC.

[DavidBenAkiva]

And, much a I hate to say it, given the experience and talent on their roster, I strongly suspect UNC can play with anyone in the land this year. Sigh...

If we're going off of Dork Polls, UNC has looked worse than expected to start the year. They can score, but their defense has been atrocious. The AdjDE has fallen to 111th in the nation and 4th worst in the ACC, just behind Notre Dame. Moreover, their adjusted tempo has been slower than normal, just 50th in the nation. The AdjT has been a big red flag for them over the years. Many of their worst seasons occurred when they were playing their slowest tempo. They are just not stopping players - and these are mostly bad teams they are facing - from taking and making shots.

I watched some of the College of Charleston game and the commentators noted when Hubert Davis said on the sidelines 'why can't we stop that guy'? They are not stopping anyone right now. According to T-Rank, UNC is giving up a whopping 67.8% shooting on close shots so far this year.

I'm not sure how they are going to fix that issue. Brady Manek and Dawson Garcia are more offensively diverse players than Sharpe, Kessler, and Brooks, but the downgrade on defense is significant as well.

The other issue for them is that they are near the bottom in the nation at forcing turnovers. Teams are completely comfortable moving the ball and playing half court sets against them. The next game they play against Purdue will be telling. The Boilermakers are huge up front, play at a glacially slow pace, and will be able to dictate the pace of play against them.

Win or lose, UNC is going to face another top 25 team on Sunday against either Villanova or Tennessee. Both of those teams present other challenges for them. Nova is a premier offensive team while Tennessee has a very talented roster with a mix of youth and experience.

Then after that, UNC hosts Michigan on December 1st and then travels to Vegas to play UCLA in mid-December. We're going to learn a lot about this team very soon. If they don't fix their defensive issues, I don't see them winning any of the four games against high-majors. Those teams are all more experienced and/or talented and can score just as well as they can. They also play on both ends.

[TheOldBattleship]

If we're going off of Dork Polls, UNC has looked worse than expected to start the year. They can score, but their defense has been atrocious. The AdjDE has fallen to 111th in the nation and 4th worst in the ACC, just behind Notre Dame. Moreover, their adjusted tempo has been slower than normal, just 50th in the nation. The AdjT has been a big red flag for them over the years. Many of their worst seasons occurred when they were playing their slowest tempo. They are just not stopping players - and these are mostly bad teams they are facing - from taking and making shots.

Totally agreed about the slow pace for UNC. It's pretty baffling for me, to be honest, why they would not want to run run run this year. Their defense is just going to be bad all year. Their players are, by and large, bad individual defenders, and they're even worse in combination: their guards can't stay in front of anyone, and Bacot/Manek/Garcia are both ground-bound and, for the most part, too slow to even get in the right position to defend the rim. They're just not going to stop anybody all year.

That said, they ARE equipped to win shootouts, at least with the kind of middling teams they are playing now, and when they've gone on their runs in the second half to salt away these recent games, it's been pushing the pace and getting quick shots up (largely from Davis/Walton from kickout threes) that's been the driving force. Bacot and Manek are not going to fool anyone into seeing them as the second coming of Tyler Zeller running the floor, but they are both big and skilled enough to be deadly in transition or the secondary break. I know it can be tough to generate pace if you're always taking the ball out of the basket after the other team makes shots, but, man, you'd think they'd at least want to TRY to push it a bit more even after makes. Roy Williams must've won 200 games that they should have lost solely by stealing buckets where the other team wasn't able to keep up with Carolina's will to run.

Anyway, baffling pace strategy aside, I hope I'm wrong, but I agree with this:

And, much a I hate to say it, given the experience and talent on their roster, I strongly suspect UNC can play with anyone in the land this year. Sigh...

I think Carolina's going to win quite a few games this year just on the basis of their shotmaking. That said, if they (or even just Bacot or RJ Davis) have off shooting nights, they could lose to ANYONE. Could be a stressful year for the wine and cheese crowd.

[TheOldBattleship]

Clemson is 3-0 and has a nice 8 point win over a fairly good mid-major in Wofford. Soph C PJ Hall ha been a revelation. He went outside to hit 3-4 threes against Wofford and then went inside to hit 7-12 twos the very next game. As a team, Clemson is hitting better than 46% from three. Only a 3 game sample size, but if they are a team that can consistently hit 40% of their threes then they are going to be quite dangerous this year.

Not to make this one of the This Week in the ACC threads, but Clemson is looking the part right now in their Charleston Classic quarterfinal against a not-terrible Temple team. Really versatile lineup with a lot of guys who can do a lot of things at a high level (and the ability to play five-out very effectively, seemingly without losing too much on defense). Helps when you hit 9-14 threes, and that won't happen all the time, but the offensive actions look really smooth.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Not to make this one of the This Week in the ACC threads, but Clemson is looking the part right now in their Charleston Classic quarterfinal against a not-terrible Temple team. Really versatile lineup with a lot of guys who can do a lot of things at a high level (and the ability to play five-out very effectively, seemingly without losing too much on defense). Helps when you hit 9-14 threes, and that won't happen all the time, but the offensive actions look really smooth.

That Clemson schedule is weak. They play their only ranked non-conference opponent tomorrow in St. Bonaventure. If they win that one, then they will play either West Virginia/Elon or Marquette/Ole Miss. The only other notable non-con game is a neutral site game against Drake. The only high-major team they are scheduled to play outside the ACC is at Rutgers in the ACC/B1G Challenge. That's a super soft schedule. The game tomorrow against the Bonnies will be telling.