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  1. #101
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio

    Points To Perfect

    I'm not sure what the value of the following analysis is, but it made me feel a little better about our season so far so I thought I'd share it.

    When I looked at our results so far, I noticed that we are eleven points from a perfect season. I thought that was pretty nice so I wondered how that compared to the other Top 25 teams on Kenpom. The results are below. To calculate "Points To Perfect" I just summed the points differential in each team's losses and added one more point per loss. For example, Duke is a total of eight points short in our three losses. Add one point to each of those three games, and we have a perfect season. So how do the top teams get re-ranked following this analysis...


    TEAM POINTS TO PERFECT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

    Arizona _____ 5 __________ 110
    Houston ____ 5 __________ 134
    Kansas _____ 11 __________ 17
    Duke ______ 11 __________ 117
    Baylor _____ 12 __________ 41
    Purdue _____ 13 __________ 50
    Gonzaga _____ 14 __________ 146

    If strength of schedule is factored in somehow, Kansas, Baylor and Purdue would likely move up in that ordering. The other teams in the Top 25 fall off pretty quickly for the most part. So I don't know if there's really any value to that summary, but it does reinforce my feeling that with just a little bit of tinkering, this team has a pretty high ceiling.

  2. #102
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    We are also probably due some positive regression, as each of the last 4 close end of game situations (at OSU, Miami, twice at FSU) went against us. Some of that is poor play. Some of it is dumb luck (like the circus shot by Charlie Moore combined with Roach slipping on the play).

  3. #103
    Quote Originally Posted by Ggallagher View Post
    I'm not sure what the value of the following analysis is, but it made me feel a little better about our season so far so I thought I'd share it.

    When I looked at our results so far, I noticed that we are eleven points from a perfect season. I thought that was pretty nice so I wondered how that compared to the other Top 25 teams on Kenpom. The results are below. To calculate "Points To Perfect" I just summed the points differential in each team's losses and added one more point per loss. For example, Duke is a total of eight points short in our three losses. Add one point to each of those three games, and we have a perfect season. So how do the top teams get re-ranked following this analysis...


    TEAM POINTS TO PERFECT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

    Arizona _____ 5 __________ 110
    Houston ____ 5 __________ 134
    Kansas _____ 11 __________ 17
    Duke ______ 11 __________ 117
    Baylor _____ 12 __________ 41
    Purdue _____ 13 __________ 50
    Gonzaga _____ 14 __________ 146

    If strength of schedule is factored in somehow, Kansas, Baylor and Purdue would likely move up in that ordering. The other teams in the Top 25 fall off pretty quickly for the most part. So I don't know if there's really any value to that summary, but it does reinforce my feeling that with just a little bit of tinkering, this team has a pretty high ceiling.
    I'd argue that the FSU loss, being overtime, means that Duke only needed one more point ;-) moving Duke into sole possession of 3rd on the list. Not that it changes the impact of your analysis/exercise.

  4. #104
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    I'd argue that the FSU loss, being overtime, means that Duke only needed one more point ;-) moving Duke into sole possession of 3rd on the list. Not that it changes the impact of your analysis/exercise.
    Good point

  5. #105
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    We are also probably due some positive regression, as each of the last 4 close end of game situations (at OSU, Miami, twice at FSU) went against us. Some of that is poor play. Some of it is dumb luck (like the circus shot by Charlie Moore combined with Roach slipping on the play).
    depends. didn't the analysis show we are not particularly good scoring on no shot clock situations?

  6. #106
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    depends. didn't the analysis show we are not particularly good scoring on no shot clock situations?
    Don’t have enough sample size to say yes or no there. No reason to assume we are inherently bad at it. Whereas we DO have evidence of an example of bad luck (the Moore play).

    Which is why I said probably due for a regression. It is certainly possible that the team is inherently bad at last-possession offense. But my suspicion is that it is more likely noise.

  7. #107
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by Ggallagher View Post
    I'm not sure what the value of the following analysis is, but it made me feel a little better about our season so far so I thought I'd share it.

    When I looked at our results so far, I noticed that we are eleven points from a perfect season. I thought that was pretty nice so I wondered how that compared to the other Top 25 teams on Kenpom. The results are below. To calculate "Points To Perfect" I just summed the points differential in each team's losses and added one more point per loss. For example, Duke is a total of eight points short in our three losses. Add one point to each of those three games, and we have a perfect season. So how do the top teams get re-ranked following this analysis...


    TEAM POINTS TO PERFECT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

    Arizona _____ 5 __________ 110
    Houston ____ 5 __________ 134
    Kansas _____ 11 __________ 17
    Duke ______ 11 __________ 117
    Baylor _____ 12 __________ 41
    Purdue _____ 13 __________ 50
    Gonzaga _____ 14 __________ 146

    If strength of schedule is factored in somehow, Kansas, Baylor and Purdue would likely move up in that ordering. The other teams in the Top 25 fall off pretty quickly for the most part. So I don't know if there's really any value to that summary, but it does reinforce my feeling that with just a little bit of tinkering, this team has a pretty high ceiling.
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    I'd argue that the FSU loss, being overtime, means that Duke only needed one more point ;-) moving Duke into sole possession of 3rd on the list. Not that it changes the impact of your analysis/exercise.
    Why'd you leave out Auburn (18-1, #5 KenPom)? Their only loss was to UConn in double overtime, so they are only 1 regulation point from a perfect record.

  8. #108
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    Why'd you leave out Auburn (18-1, #5 KenPom)? Their only loss was to UConn in double overtime, so they are only 1 regulation point from a perfect record.
    Just a screw up on my part. I had them on my handwritten list when I took a first look at the numbers. In cleaning up my list before posting, I inadvertently omitted them from the second copy. Nice work

    And you're correct. By the amended logic correcting for overtime games, they would be the strong #1 in this ranking.

    Thanks for catching that.

  9. #109
    Join Date
    Sep 2016
    Location
    Texas
    Quote Originally Posted by Ggallagher View Post
    Just a screw up on my part. I had them on my handwritten list when I took a first look at the numbers. In cleaning up my list before posting, I inadvertently omitted them from the second copy. Nice work

    And you're correct. By the amended logic correcting for overtime games, they would be the strong #1 in this ranking.

    Thanks for catching that.
    The other end of the spectrum is Villanova, currently ranked #7 in KenPom with 5 losses totalling 69 points, needing 74 points for a perfect record. They also have the #2 strength of schedule, so that explains much of it. But they did have a couple of blow-out losses of 20+ points.

  10. #110
    Here is how some of the projection systems see the rest of the ACC turning out.


    KenPom
    15-5 - #10 Duke
    13-7 - #34 Wake Forest
    13-7 - #57 Notre Dame
    13-7 - #54 Florida State
    13-7 - #62 Miami
    12-8 - #43 UNC-CH



    BartTorvik
    15-5 - #10 Duke
    13-7 - #37 Wake Forest
    13-7 - #55 Florida State
    13-7 - #66 Miami
    12-8 - #51 UNC-CH
    12-8 - #71 Notre Dame

    Odds to at least share the ACC regular season per these projections:
    74.9% - Duke
    15.5% - Florida State
    14.1% - Wake Forest
    10.8% - Miami
    9.1% - Notre Dame
    5.4% - UNC-CH



    ESPN BPI
    15.5-4.5 - #12 Duke
    12.9-7.1 - #38 Wake Forest
    12.1-7.9 - #66 Notre Dame
    12.6-7.4 - #55 Florida State
    11.9-8.1 - #69 Miami
    11.8-8.2 - #35 UNC-CH

    Odds to at least share the ACC regular season per these projections:
    84.4% - Duke
    9.8% - Florida State
    11.3% - Wake Forest
    6.6% - Notre Dame
    5.4% - UNC-CH
    4.4% - Miami



    The systems pretty much agree on Duke, but disagree some on the others. It looks like Duke is still the favorite. However, if we slip up, it could be a really wild race with 5-6 teams in it.

  11. #111
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Maturin View Post
    Here is how some of the projection systems see the rest of the ACC turning out.


    KenPom
    15-5 - #10 Duke
    13-7 - #34 Wake Forest
    13-7 - #57 Notre Dame
    13-7 - #54 Florida State
    13-7 - #62 Miami
    12-8 - #43 UNC-CH



    BartTorvik
    15-5 - #10 Duke
    13-7 - #37 Wake Forest
    13-7 - #55 Florida State
    13-7 - #66 Miami
    12-8 - #51 UNC-CH
    12-8 - #71 Notre Dame

    Odds to at least share the ACC regular season per these projections:
    74.9% - Duke
    15.5% - Florida State
    14.1% - Wake Forest
    10.8% - Miami
    9.1% - Notre Dame
    5.4% - UNC-CH



    ESPN BPI
    15.5-4.5 - #12 Duke
    12.9-7.1 - #38 Wake Forest
    12.1-7.9 - #66 Notre Dame
    12.6-7.4 - #55 Florida State
    11.9-8.1 - #69 Miami
    11.8-8.2 - #35 UNC-CH

    Odds to at least share the ACC regular season per these projections:
    84.4% - Duke
    9.8% - Florida State
    11.3% - Wake Forest
    6.6% - Notre Dame
    5.4% - UNC-CH
    4.4% - Miami



    The systems pretty much agree on Duke, but disagree some on the others. It looks like Duke is still the favorite. However, if we slip up, it could be a really wild race with 5-6 teams in it.
    Thanks. Really interesting.

    Is Wake really that good? Or is Wake being the ~2nd best team in the ACC just show how bad the ACC really is?
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  12. #112
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Thanks. Really interesting.

    Is Wake really that good? Or is Wake being the ~2nd best team in the ACC just show how bad the ACC really is?
    One thing helping Wake in the metrics is margin of victory. Of their 6 ACC wins, 4 have come by at least 16 points. Compare that with say, Florida State, who has won 4 of its 6 ACC games by 1 or 2 points, and the metrics find Wake's work to be more impressive.

    To your other point, yes, it says a lot about the ACC. In many years a team in the mid-30s might be the 5th or 6th best team in the league. In 2019, Louisville was #23 in KenPom, which was 6th in the ACC.

  13. #113
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Duke dropped to 9 in the latest AP Poll.

  14. #114
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    Duke dropped to 9 in the latest AP Poll.
    FSU, WF, Miami with votes. Cheats not listed; must be a misprint.

  15. #115
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Whoa... here is some really interesting dork news. Duke has the nation's best 5-man lineup.



    And that Duke 5 is faaaaar ahead of the second best lineup in the country. There is an 11 point gap (in efficiency margin) between Duke and the second best lineup. By comparison, there is less than an 11 point margin between the 2nd best lineup and the 11th best.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  16. #116
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Whoa... here is some really interesting dork news. Duke has the nation's best 5-man lineup.

    And that Duke 5 is faaaaar ahead of the second best lineup in the country. There is an 11 point gap (in efficiency margin) between Duke and the second best lineup. By comparison, there is less than an 11 point margin between the 2nd best lineup and the 11th best.
    We discussed this earlier in the February thread. Sadly, the sample size (121 offensive possessions/125 defensive possessions; approximately 68 minutes over the course of the season) is far too small to be particularly informative.

  17. #117
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Whoa... here is some really interesting dork news. Duke has the nation's best 5-man lineup.



    And that Duke 5 is faaaaar ahead of the second best lineup in the country. There is an 11 point gap (in efficiency margin) between Duke and the second best lineup. By comparison, there is less than an 11 point margin between the 2nd best lineup and the 11th best.
    And that's with Trevor Keels as the 6th man. Pretty good.

    GoDuke!

  18. #118
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    This is treading on quicksand, but this is K's farewell. Given all he has done for USA Basketball, the NCAA, the ACC, the coaches association, Duke and even FIBA -- no way will the Tournament Selection Committee want to hear "Duke got screwed." A tiebreaker, for sure.

  19. #119
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Up to 9 in KenPom.

    -jk

  20. #120
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    Up to 9 in KenPom.

    -jk
    And to #7 in Torvik.

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