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  1. #81
    Its soooo early but I’m eating lunch so lets jump in to the conversation a little.

    I’m surprised by those who are pessimistic about Moore and Roach. Moore has borne the brunt of the Covid seasons and the one and done world where practice was inconsistent and the lineups were in constant flux. K believes in Moore. He defends, he can bring the ball up, his jumper kept getting better last year (not hard early in the year) and if he can have a real summer where he can tighten his handle further, clean up the jumper further and tweak his driving decision making, I expect a really good (if not flashy) year for him. I hate comparisons because my memory isn’t usually accurate enough (and I’m too lazy to research) but a Matt Jones + type year but just what a freshman dominated team needs.

    Roach had a tough freshman year relative to his incoming rankings. Shooting and passing weren’t where they needed to be for a lead PG in ACC play. However, again, no offseason and this is a kid who was hurt his Jr. year. I also don’t think this team needs him to be great. He’ll be stronger physically and on the ball. The summer will really define where he and this team’s season goes but I think the sophomore leap is going to be real here. He didn’t have a normal freshman season and that is bound to disproportionately hurt a young PG. I also think K’s desire to win led to lots of tinkering to find what worked (some of it overcoming Roach to be sure) but that probably also slowed Roach’s development. I’m not saying that was a bad call but had consequences.

    Keels size really excites me. Steward’s size along side Roach was a problem in ACC play. A line-up with Williams, Banchero, Griffin, Keels/Moore, Roach, is big, and athletic in ways that feel much more familiar to K’s good one and done teams. When he is slotted at the 2, Keels bring 3 inches and about 50 lbs (if the roster is to be believed) over Steward. Pick and roll defense will look very different between those two.

    Calling a team “deep” under K seems code for, he doesn’t really know who he can count on which was last year. This team will have much more clear roles and that too will help. A tight rotation of 8 to 9 tops seems inevitable and will build closeness and clarity for the players and coaching staff.

    I’m terrible at the minutes game (perhaps on par with our friends on the Pod ) but CBS had then recently at #7 and I think the top ACC team. I think that is about right but add K magic to that mix and who knows…………..
    The ceiling is the roof

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by MrPoon View Post
    Roach had a tough freshman year relative to his incoming rankings. Shooting and passing weren’t where they needed to be for a lead PG in ACC play.
    I actually don't even think it's true that Jeremy had a "tough freshman year relative to his incoming rankings." Below is a table showing freshman stats for all guards/wings who came to Duke with an incoming ranking between #15 and #25, since the turn of the century:

    Code:
    Player		rank	mpg	pp40	rp40	ap40	top40	eFG%
    E Williams	15	16.6	10.2	5.5	1.6	2.1	47.6%
    D Nelson	18	19.2	13.0	9.5	1.7	3.0	44.5%
    N Smith		18	14.7	16.2	4.2	3.6	3.9	54.0%
    J Roach		20	27.4	12.7	3.2	4.0	2.9	53.2%
    L Kennard	21	26.7	17.7	5.4	2.3	1.2	50.3%
    S Dockery	21	10.5	12.8	5.4	3.7	4.1	44.1%
    D Steward	24	30.8	16.9	5.0	3.1	2.6	50.8%
    G Allen		24	9.2	19.0	4.3	1.7	1.9	50.9%
    W Moore		25	24.0	12.4	7.1	3.1	4.1	42.9%
    Of these nine players, Roach has the second-most minutes played, the most assists per 40, the second-best eFG%, and middle-of-the pack turnovers (but 2nd-best turnovers per 40 among the five guys who had 3 or more assists per 40). I'd say he had probably the 3rd best overall freshman performance in the group, behind OAD Steward and 2AD Kennard, and even with them it's relatively close.

  3. #83
    Great comps on Jeremy's freshman season. It points to the fact that we don't need a quantum leap from him this offseason - just typical sophomore growth. Top 3 on my wish list would be stronger defense, higher a/t ratio (better decision making), and a higher 3-point %. I expect we will see improvement in all 3. And who better than Jon and Nolan to help him develop...

  4. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I actually don't even think it's true that Jeremy had a "tough freshman year relative to his incoming rankings." Below is a table showing freshman stats for all guards/wings who came to Duke with an incoming ranking between #15 and #25, since the turn of the century:

    Code:
    Player		rank	mpg	pp40	rp40	ap40	top40	eFG%
    E Williams	15	16.6	10.2	5.5	1.6	2.1	47.6%
    D Nelson	18	19.2	13.0	9.5	1.7	3.0	44.5%
    N Smith		18	14.7	16.2	4.2	3.6	3.9	54.0%
    J Roach		20	27.4	12.7	3.2	4.0	2.9	53.2%
    L Kennard	21	26.7	17.7	5.4	2.3	1.2	50.3%
    S Dockery	21	10.5	12.8	5.4	3.7	4.1	44.1%
    D Steward	24	30.8	16.9	5.0	3.1	2.6	50.8%
    G Allen		24	9.2	19.0	4.3	1.7	1.9	50.9%
    W Moore		25	24.0	12.4	7.1	3.1	4.1	42.9%
    Of these nine players, Roach has the second-most minutes played, the most assists per 40, the second-best eFG%, and middle-of-the pack turnovers (but 2nd-best turnovers per 40 among the five guys who had 3 or more assists per 40). I'd say he had probably the 3rd best overall freshman performance in the group, behind OAD Steward and 2AD Kennard, and even with them it's relatively close.
    IMO minutes played is only meaningful here if all the teams are approximately as good as each other. For example, I would say freshman Grayson Allen was easily better than freshman Jeremy Roach, and would have gotten lots of minutes on last year's team.

    But, I think you're right to remind people that a ranking in the 15–25 range doesn't imply a sure-fire freshman star.

  5. #85
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I actually don't even think it's true that Jeremy had a "tough freshman year relative to his incoming rankings." Below is a table showing freshman stats for all guards/wings who came to Duke with an incoming ranking between #15 and #25, since the turn of the century:

    Code:
    Player		rank	mpg	pp40	rp40	ap40	top40	eFG%
    E Williams	15	16.6	10.2	5.5	1.6	2.1	47.6%
    D Nelson	18	19.2	13.0	9.5	1.7	3.0	44.5%
    N Smith		18	14.7	16.2	4.2	3.6	3.9	54.0%
    J Roach		20	27.4	12.7	3.2	4.0	2.9	53.2%
    L Kennard	21	26.7	17.7	5.4	2.3	1.2	50.3%
    S Dockery	21	10.5	12.8	5.4	3.7	4.1	44.1%
    D Steward	24	30.8	16.9	5.0	3.1	2.6	50.8%
    G Allen		24	9.2	19.0	4.3	1.7	1.9	50.9%
    W Moore		25	24.0	12.4	7.1	3.1	4.1	42.9%
    Of these nine players, Roach has the second-most minutes played, the most assists per 40, the second-best eFG%, and middle-of-the pack turnovers (but 2nd-best turnovers per 40 among the five guys who had 3 or more assists per 40). I'd say he had probably the 3rd best overall freshman performance in the group, behind OAD Steward and 2AD Kennard, and even with them it's relatively close.
    given that we missed the tournament for the first time in 25 years, i'm not sure the amount of minutes someone contributed to the team compared to other years is necessarily a good indicator of how rough one's season was. It just means he was a major contributor to a team that ultimately wasn't very good, and that there was nobody better in front of him to take the minutes.

    That may sound unnecessarily harsh on Mr. Roach, but in the modern times, freshmen get thrown off the deep end, and he didn't swim as well as we would have hoped. Hopefully he'll be much improved this year, as diligent returning players are oft apt to do.
    basketball is back, baby!

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    given that we missed the tournament for the first time in 25 years, i'm not sure the amount of minutes someone contributed to the team compared to other years is necessarily a good indicator of how rough one's season was. It just means he was a major contributor to a team that ultimately wasn't very good, and that there was nobody better in front of him to take the minutes.

    That may sound unnecessarily harsh on Mr. Roach, but in the modern times, freshmen get thrown off the deep end, and he didn't swim as well as we would have hoped. Hopefully he'll be much improved this year, as diligent returning players are oft apt to do.
    The OP said Jeremy's year was tough relative to recruiting ranking, especially in passing and shooting. My point was that looking at other Duke freshmen at the same recruiting level, Roach's performance was actually better than most, especially in passing and shooting.

    The fact that the team wasn't as good as other Duke teams may explain why Roach got so many minutes, but looking at their freshman performances it's hard to credit that many (if any) of the other Duke freshmen at that recruiting level would have performed better enough in Jeremy's place to have significantly improved the team's win/loss record.

  7. #87
    Speculated on three potential lineups for Duke next season.

    There are several lineup options available, but it was fun to look into a few specific possibilities. Right now, think Roach/Moore/Griffin/Banchero/Williams will be the starters, but Keels will essentially get starter minutes as well. But this team has some intriguing lineup mixes to throw out there.

    https://bluedevilstop.com/three-intr...r-next-season/

  8. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Personally I'm not overly worried about Mark's FT shooting. He had clear struggles last season, but he also showed that the fundamentals are in place (he made a handful of beautiful looking top of the key jumpers when left wide open). With a full offseason I don't see any reason why he can't be a serviceable FT shooter this season (which for a big I'd put at 65/70% plus), with the potential in place for a higher ceiling at the line.
    Theo John was also a 74% shooter last year, so we certainly have a more than serviceable center who can close games from a FT shooting perspective. Although I’ll note that Theo was in the 50s% his first 3 years, so let’s hope last year was a structural improvement and not an aberration.

  9. #89
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Dallas, TX
    Are we doing the minutes contest yet? This is my best estimation as of today, based on footage of the scrimmages on YouTube. This is a guess based on what I think the best version of this team would be, not who starts or comes off the bench at the beginning of the season.

    Starters

    PG: Jeremy Roach (33 mins)
    SG: Trevor Keels (27 mins)
    SF: AJ Griffin (24 mins)
    PF: Paolo Banchero (32 mins)
    C: Mark Williams (24 mins)

    6: Wendell Moore (22 mins)
    7: Joey Baker (20 mins)
    8: Theo John (14 mins)
    9: Jaylen Blakes (2 mins)

    everyone else combined: 2 min

    I think people are going to be amazed at how good Paolo Banchero is. He's essentially a 6'9" guard, capable of handling the rock at the top of the key and creating shots for himself and others. He actually runs pick and roll a few times with Mark Wiliams, and that is freakin awesome. I think he's a NPOY candidate, and easily the best player on this team.

    After him, I honestly think the second most impressive player from these scrimmages is either Joey Baker or Trevor Keels. I'll believe it when I see it in real games with Baker . . . he does look very impressive in these scrimmages, though.

    Keels has an NBA body already and can just bully other guards on the drive, where he's able to hit some tough off balance shots in the mid range after creating space with his brute strength. I love his game and I think he can be a really solid 2-way guy.

    Wendell Moore just looks the same as he's always looked, which is to say up and down (mostly down). AJ Griffin was largely absent from any major highlights. It seems like he was just a little passive in this particular practice, but he's unquestionably an ultra-talented player.

    I'm pretty excited about this team. We have very a strong squad this year.
    Last edited by kAzE; 07-22-2021 at 07:01 PM.

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    Are we doing the minutes contest yet? This is my best estimation as of today, based on footage of the scrimmages on YouTube. This is a guess based on what I think the best version of this team would be, not who starts or comes off the bench at the beginning of the season.

    Starters

    PG: Jeremy Roach (33 mins)
    SG: Trevor Keels (27 mins)
    SF: AJ Griffin (24 mins)
    PF: Paolo Banchero (32 mins)
    C: Mark Williams (24 mins)

    6: Wendell Moore (22 mins)
    7: Joey Baker (20 mins)
    8: Theo John (14 mins)
    9: Jaylen Blakes (2 mins)

    everyone else combined: 2 min

    I think people are going to be amazed at how good Paolo Banchero is. He's essentially a 6'9" guard, capable of handling the rock at the top of the key and creating shots for himself and others. He actually runs pick and roll a few times with Mark Wiliams, and that is freakin awesome. I think he's a NPOY candidate, and easily the best player on this team.

    After him, I honestly think the second most impressive player from these scrimmages is either Joey Baker or Trevor Keels. I'll believe it when I see it in real games with Baker . . . he does look very impressive in these scrimmages, though.

    Keels has an NBA body already and can just bully other guards on the drive, where he's able to hit some tough off balance shots in the mid range after creating space with his brute strength. I love his game and I think he can be a really solid 2-way guy.

    Wendell Moore just looks the same as he's always looked, which is to say up and down (mostly down). AJ Griffin was largely absent from any major highlights. It seems like he was just a little passive in this particular practice, but he's unquestionably an ultra-talented player.

    I'm pretty excited about this team. We have very a strong squad this year.
    Thanks for posting this. It was a much sloppier scrimmage than the last one they posted. Eye of the beholder and all that, I thought Wendell Moore looked better than Trevor Keels in this scrimmage and I think you're way overrating Keels and way underrating Moore in your minutes projection. FWIW, I also think you're underrating Griffin's and Williams's minutes -- I think all five starters will top 30 mpg (and I think Moore will be a starter).

    I also think you're overrating Joey Baker in your projection, but if he shoots like he did in this scrimmage, maybe I'll be wrong about that. I thought Bates Jones looked terrific in this scrimmage, but that doesn't mean I think he'll play anything more than garbage time minutes. I saw Theo John on the bench but didn't notice him on the court, not sure what's up with that.

    Finally, Jeremy Roach seemed to be shooting really well, too. Hope that translates to the games.

  11. #91
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Dallas, TX
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Thanks for posting this. It was a much sloppier scrimmage than the last one they posted. Eye of the beholder and all that, I thought Wendell Moore looked better than Trevor Keels in this scrimmage and I think you're way overrating Keels and way underrating Moore in your minutes projection. FWIW, I also think you're underrating Griffin's and Williams's minutes -- I think all five starters will top 30 mpg (and I think Moore will be a starter).

    I also think you're overrating Joey Baker in your projection, but if he shoots like he did in this scrimmage, maybe I'll be wrong about that. I thought Bates Jones looked terrific in this scrimmage, but that doesn't mean I think he'll play anything more than garbage time minutes. I saw Theo John on the bench but didn't notice him on the court, not sure what's up with that.

    Finally, Jeremy Roach seemed to be shooting really well, too. Hope that translates to the games.
    Like I said, I did the minutes based on that video

    I reserve the right to change my entry up until the deadline. But I still like Keels more than Moore.

  12. #92
    Paulo looked impressive but he and Williams were guarded by Bates Jones and Worthington most of the game. On the other hand Wendell’s team had no post players at all. Weird matchups.

  13. #93
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Thanks for posting this. It was a much sloppier scrimmage than the last one they posted. Eye of the beholder and all that, I thought Wendell Moore looked better than Trevor Keels in this scrimmage and I think you're way overrating Keels and way underrating Moore in your minutes projection. FWIW, I also think you're underrating Griffin's and Williams's minutes -- I think all five starters will top 30 mpg (and I think Moore will be a starter).

    I also think you're overrating Joey Baker in your projection, but if he shoots like he did in this scrimmage, maybe I'll be wrong about that. I thought Bates Jones looked terrific in this scrimmage, but that doesn't mean I think he'll play anything more than garbage time minutes. I saw Theo John on the bench but didn't notice him on the court, not sure what's up with that.

    Finally, Jeremy Roach seemed to be shooting really well, too. Hope that translates to the games.
    I actually think kAzE is not too far off with Keels’ minutes. I can’t remember my entry in this contest but I think it was around 24 mpg. So 27 seems reasonable.

    Though I agree the estimates for Williams and especially Moore seem too low to me.

    For what little it is worth, in the other scrimmage Moore was prominent and Keels nonexistent.

    Hard to make much of Williams and Banchero from these as they are being guarded by undersized walk-ons (though it is funny how many Kensn Worthington highlights they crammed into the two scrimmages).

    I do hope to not see many instances of Williams dribbling on a breakaway…

  14. #94
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    Oct 2013
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    Dallas, TX
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I actually think kAzE is not too far off with Keels’ minutes. I can’t remember my entry in this contest but I think it was around 24 mpg. So 27 seems reasonable.

    Though I agree the estimates for Williams and especially Moore seem too low to me.
    It may turn out that Williams is too good to keep off the floor, but the reason I only had him at 24 minutes is to allow some lineups with Paolo at the 5, where I think he could really do some damage. Vernon Carey only played about 25 mpg, and he was one of the best centers in the ACC too. Mark is much better than Vern on defense though.

    Next version I do, I'll probably take 4 minutes from Theo John and bump Mark up to 28.

    Also, IMO, Wendell Moore's best position is at the 4. I think he struggles with his handle against good defensive guards, and the best way to use his skill set is to attack bigger matchups by getting out in transition and beating slower opponents with backdoor cuts. It's tough to get him minutes in the front court on this team, though. Just not enough guards.

    I want to see a small ball lineup where we have Roach, Keels, Griffin, Moore, and Banchero. That lineup could be a skill mismatch in Duke's favor at every position against some teams.
    Last edited by kAzE; 07-22-2021 at 11:50 PM.

  15. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    Also, IMO, Wendell Moore's best position is at the 4. I think he struggles with his handle against good defensive guards, and the best way to use his skill set is to attack bigger matchups by getting out in transition and beating slower opponents with backdoor cuts. It's tough to get him minutes in the front court on this team, though. Just not enough guards.
    I don't disagree with anything quoted here, but Wendell played PG in the ACC tournament and has been playing PG in the scrimmage videos that have been posted. So I think K is going to use him at PG, at the very least as the primary backup if not the starter. With Paolo and Mark (and Theo as backup big and AJ as a potential small-ball PF), it's unlikely Wendell will play very much (if any) PF.

    And as a contrast to your small lineup, I'm looking forward to seeing some extra-large lineups with Mark, Paolo, AJ, Wendell, with Trevor or Joey as the 5th guy. If that big lineup isn't quick enough in M2M, it would be imposing in a zone.

  16. #96
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    Jun 2008
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    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I actually think kAzE is not too far off with Keels’ minutes. I can’t remember my entry in this contest but I think it was around 24 mpg. So 27 seems reasonable.

    Though I agree the estimates for Williams and especially Moore seem too low to me.

    For what little it is worth, in the other scrimmage Moore was prominent and Keels nonexistent.

    Hard to make much of Williams and Banchero from these as they are being guarded by undersized walk-ons (though it is funny how many Kensn Worthington highlights they crammed into the two scrimmages).

    I do hope to not see many instances of Williams dribbling on a breakaway…
    CDu, is this thread the official minutes contest? Or just discussing Duke rotations? Thanks.

    GoDuke!

  17. #97
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    CDu, is this thread the official minutes contest? Or just discussing Duke rotations? Thanks.

    GoDuke!
    It is the minutes contest.

  18. #98
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    Jun 2008
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    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    It is the minutes contest.
    Thank you.

  19. #99
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC

    Minutes Contest!

    Well, I hope I'm better at this than the PGA contest. Here goes:

    Banchero- 34
    Roach-32
    Moore-30
    Williams-26
    Griffin-24
    Keels-24
    Baker-16
    John-10
    Blakes-2
    others-2

    This is based on two scrimmages that probably don't mean anything. But one thing I did notice, Griffin was not involved in the offense. He did play pretty good defense but while guarding Baker, he (Griffin) got lit up. I thought Keels did a good job of handling the ball as did Moore. Roach looked to be very confident in his shot and he made most of them. Really too early to draw much from these videos.

    GoDuke!

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