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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Fair enough. I don't think too many people were saying he was the missing piece/key component, or the difference between a pretender and a contender, but some may have. I think more were happy about him being a developmental guard who would hopefully stick around and provide some continuity in future seasons.

    I will say that 3 to 4 minutes per game is significantly more impactful than a walk on. For example, Keenan Worthington played 5 minutes all season in 2020-21. Worthington, Buckmire, and Savarino combined for 14 minutes in 2020-21, or a combined average of 35 seconds per game (10 to 12 seconds per game each, on average, or approximately 20x less than some people are projecting for Blakes).
    For comparison, Jordan Goldwire played 169 minutes in a 37-game season. That's ~4.5 minutes per game, which is consistent with the Goldwire/Blakes comparisons.

    Given the lack of mobile guards (really only Roach and Blakes), and knowing Roach won't play 40 min a night, I think Blakes may even get more than 5 a game.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  2. #42
    I think Theo John is going to get a lot more than the 10 or so mpg that people here seem to be assuming. This is a mature, physical presence, a defense-first rebounder and shot-blocker who will be our best banger inside. It's hard for me to see him not getting close to 20mpg. He had 11 points and 5 rebounds against UNC this past season in 29 minutes. I'll bet he finishes a lot of games, assuming he can replicate the 74% free throw shooting from last season.

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by 1Devil View Post
    I think Theo John is going to get a lot more than the 10 or so mpg that people here seem to be assuming. This is a mature, physical presence, a defense-first rebounder and shot-blocker who will be our best banger inside. It's hard for me to see him not getting close to 20mpg. He had 11 points and 5 rebounds against UNC this past season in 29 minutes. I'll bet he finishes a lot of games, assuming he can replicate the 74% free throw shooting from last season.
    Maybe. Except for that to happen, Mark Williams (who, like Theo, can only realistically play center), would end up playing only 20 mpg or less. Does that seem realistic or wise to you? It doesn't to me.

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Maybe. Except for that to happen, Mark Williams (who, like Theo, can only realistically play center), would end up playing only 20 mpg or less. Does that seem realistic or wise to you? It doesn't to me.
    I think we could see a bit of Theo and Mark together. It's not very Duke and bit too much uNC-like (ewww) for my tastes but it's possible. Paolo is going to play a boatload of minutes but he ain't playing 40. Wendell and AJ can play up but that has its drawbacks. Plus it would be an assumption with AJ, a safe assumption but still an assumption.

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    I think we could see a bit of Theo and Mark together. It's not very Duke and bit too much uNC-like (ewww) for my tastes but it's possible. Paolo is going to play a boatload of minutes but he ain't playing 40. Wendell and AJ can play up but that has its drawbacks. Plus it would be an assumption with AJ, a safe assumption but still an assumption.
    Williams is a true 5. I can't see him playing the 4.

    I looked at John's game logs. He has played the 5 at Marquette for at least 2 years. John is 6'9", but he's also 255 lbs. That's a solid 10lb over Williams.

    I'm not convinced John is mobile enough to play the 4. I hope he is, but I'm not convinced.

    Also, I'm sure Coach K will play Banchero at the 5 a bit to test it out. A Roach-Keels-Moore-Griffin-Banchero line-up would be our best shooting line-up.

    With all that said, I too see John playing at least 14 minutes, maybe more. I think Coach K will test out Williams/John, also known as the last-name-as-first-name tandem.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Williams is a true 5. I can't see him playing the 4.

    I looked at John's game logs. He has played the 5 at Marquette for at least 2 years. John is 6'9", but he's also 255 lbs. That's a solid 10lb over Williams.

    I'm not convinced John is mobile enough to play the 4. I hope he is, but I'm not convinced.

    Also, I'm sure Coach K will play Banchero at the 5 a bit to test it out. A Roach-Keels-Moore-Griffin-Banchero line-up would be our best shooting line-up.

    With all that said, I too see John playing at least 14 minutes, maybe more. I think Coach K will test out Williams/John, also known as the last-name-as-first-name tandem.
    Williams/John? That's crazy talk. John/Williams has an almost musical ring to it. Definitely like the composition. Scores well too.

    Now matter what we call it the tandem will be highly match-up dependent. I have a tough time believing that John came to Duke expecting less than 10 mpg. In order to get more than 10 mpg, he would have to play a bit of the 4 unless Mark is going to be playing a lot less than many of us are expecting.

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    Williams/John? That's crazy talk. John/Williams has an almost musical ring to it. Definitely like the composition. Scores well too.

    Now matter what we call it the tandem will be highly match-up dependent. I have a tough time believing that John came to Duke expecting less than 10 mpg. In order to get more than 10 mpg, he would have to play a bit of the 4 unless Mark is going to be playing a lot less than many of us are expecting.
    I’d expect more Moore at the four, and less John.

    I can see John getting 10-15 mpg between his role as backup center, increased minutes in blow outs and (gulp) injuries.

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    Williams/John? That's crazy talk. John/Williams has an almost musical ring to it. Definitely like the composition. Scores well too.
    It could be a war of stars (or even worlds!) down low. With two bigs, Some Jawing from the two of them could really throw opponents off their game, causing the defense to leave the second big home alone. With such intra-team competition, I can see K giving one the early hook, though, perhaps even at the midway point of the first half. Either way, I hope we see a lot of the two Linkin' up in The Post.
    Last edited by uh_no; 05-13-2021 at 12:59 PM.
    basketball is back, baby!

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieTiger View Post
    I’d expect more Moore at the four, and less John.

    I can see John getting 10-15 mpg between his role as backup center, increased minutes in blow outs and (gulp) injuries.
    Without having seen John play, but having seen too much of Moore, I'll take John. Perhaps I'll revise that opinion once I see them both play this year.

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by 1Devil View Post
    I think Theo John is going to get a lot more than the 10 or so mpg that people here seem to be assuming. This is a mature, physical presence, a defense-first rebounder and shot-blocker who will be our best banger inside. It's hard for me to see him not getting close to 20mpg. He had 11 points and 5 rebounds against UNC this past season in 29 minutes. I'll bet he finishes a lot of games, assuming he can replicate the 74% free throw shooting from last season.
    Quote Originally Posted by 1Devil View Post
    Without having seen John play, but having seen too much of Moore, I'll take John.
    You've never seen him play, but you can't imagine him getting less than 20mpg? In part because he's a "defense-first rebounder"? And because you've seen "too much" of Moore?

    I have some news for you. Here are Theo's and Wendell's advanced stats in conference play in 2020-21:

    Code:
    Player		oRtg	PER	eFG%	FTR	OR%	DR%	Asst%	stl%	blk%	TO%	Usg
    Theo John	106.7	16.6	56.5	48.6	6.2	12.9	9.9	1.6	5.7	22.4	17.8
    Wendell Moore	112.0	18.5	50.6	22.6	5.4	16.6	17.3	2.5	0.8	14.6	20.5
    Theo is a much better shotblocker, and a better short-range shooter (he only attempted four three-pointers all last season), and he gets to the line more, but that's about it. Wendell is a much better passer, turns it over a lot less, gets more steals, and ironically (given your description of Theo) is a better rebounder. The rebounding is especially noteworthy, since Theo played near the basket almost all the time and Wendell played primarily on the perimeter but still rebounded at a higher rate.

    Presumably, given their comparative sizes, Theo can guard opposing centers better than Wendell, but I also assume Wendell is more proficient guarding stretch-fours and other perimeter players. And Theo has basically played center for most or all of his Marquette career while (especially as a freshman) Wendell has played some PF.

    So I'm not sure your hunch about the two is going to prove accurate.


    Oh, also, while Theo did shoot 74% from the line as a senior, his career FT% is 58%. Wendell shot 85% from the line as a sophomore (82% career).
    Last edited by Kedsy; 05-13-2021 at 02:21 PM.

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    I'm really at a loss as to why everyone is assuming Theo John is going to be such a solid player for us. He may turn out to be, or not, but a lot of folks on here are taking it as gospel that he will be. We thought that about Patrick Tape too, and that didn't work out at all. I certainly hope Theo will be a lot better than Patrick was, and I think he will be based on his numbers, but I'm not so sure about the irrational exuberance.

    I am not vouching for the accuracy of the following. I know a guy who knows a guy who sent him this. Let's hope he's wrong but here's what he wrote about Theo:

    As someone who watched every Marquette game last year, I can tell you that John can be a serviceable backup on a good team and that's it. He's not good in the pick n roll. He has bad hands. Will bobble any pass not lightly bounced to him. He is not good defensively. He has no face up jumpshot. Not a good rebounder. Look at his stats and look at Marquettes stats if you think I'm off base.


    Again, not to be a downer or anything and I do hope and think Theo will prove this person wrong, but it's worth considering if he's not wrong . . .

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Yep, I think there's a decent chance we really regret the Coleman for John swap.

  13. #53
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    I'm really at a loss as to why everyone is assuming Theo John is going to be such a solid player for us. He may turn out to be, or not, but a lot of folks on here are taking it as gospel that he will be. We thought that about Patrick Tape too, and that didn't work out at all. I certainly hope Theo will be a lot better than Patrick was, and I think he will be based on his numbers, but I'm not so sure about the irrational exuberance.
    I don't think "everyone" is assuming John is going to be anything more than a solid backup center. There may be some random folks expecting more, but essentially what folks are saying is he'll be a better backup C than we had previously.

    As for the Tapé comparison, John has played better and against better competition than Tapé. So I would expect John to play better than Tapé. Though that's not saying much. I think he'll be a solid backup center who is light on rebounding but high on physicality and shotblocking. And he'll play like 10-12 mpg. I think most are of the same mindset.

    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    I am not vouching for the accuracy of the following. I know a guy who knows a guy who sent him this. Let's hope he's wrong but here's what he wrote about Theo:

    As someone who watched every Marquette game last year, I can tell you that John can be a serviceable backup on a good team and that's it. He's not good in the pick n roll. He has bad hands. Will bobble any pass not lightly bounced to him. He is not good defensively. He has no face up jumpshot. Not a good rebounder. Look at his stats and look at Marquettes stats if you think I'm off base.


    Again, not to be a downer or anything and I do hope and think Theo will prove this person wrong, but it's worth considering if he's not wrong . . .
    I mean, your acquiantance's description is what I think most here are expecting: a solid backup, and nothing more.

  14. #54
    Hopefully TJ can play with max energy for 10-15 min per game and improve those rebounding numbers. I expect he can be a very solid backup ACC big.

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    I'm really at a loss as to why everyone is assuming Theo John is going to be such a solid player for us. He may turn out to be, or not, but a lot of folks on here are taking it as gospel that he will be. We thought that about Patrick Tape too, and that didn't work out at all. I certainly hope Theo will be a lot better than Patrick was, and I think he will be based on his numbers, but I'm not so sure about the irrational exuberance.

    I am not vouching for the accuracy of the following. I know a guy who knows a guy who sent him this. Let's hope he's wrong but here's what he wrote about Theo:

    As someone who watched every Marquette game last year, I can tell you that John can be a serviceable backup on a good team and that's it. He's not good in the pick n roll. He has bad hands. Will bobble any pass not lightly bounced to him. He is not good defensively. He has no face up jumpshot. Not a good rebounder. Look at his stats and look at Marquettes stats if you think I'm off base.


    Again, not to be a downer or anything and I do hope and think Theo will prove this person wrong, but it's worth considering if he's not wrong . . .
    I know a guy who knows a guy who knows the cousin of a guy...

    My expectation for Theo is based upon what Duke gave up to get him. If he is just a serviceable backup, wouldn't Henry have filled that role adequately? If Duke believed Henry was going to transfer anyway, bringing in a guy who averaged 20+ mpg just to play him < 10 mpg seems like it's asking for trouble.

    I expect Theo to be a rotation player, not a star. If he averages more than 15 mpg, I'd be shocked. If he averages less than 10 mpg, I'd wonder why Duke brought him in.

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Duke brought in Theo John to be a backup center, to absorb whatever minutes Williams is sitting down. Nothing more, nothing less.

  17. #57
    A few random thoughts, one or more of these may be controversial.

    • I'd rather have Wendell Moore playing the 4 next year than either Theo John or Henry Coleman
    • I'd be willing to bet that Baker, Moore, Griffin and Keels each get more time at the 4 than John gets.
    • Theo John's greatest contributions by far will likely be as a practice player going against Mark, and his leadership. Listen to the recent Dawkins on Duke podcast. He's going to bring maturity and toughness to the locker room.

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC

    Williams-John

    If Theo get's 20 mpg, to me that means a Williams regression or injury. Mark and Theo are low post players period and I don't think either can play or should play the 4. We have Moore, Griffin, Baker and Banchero who will play that position. The stats I've seen show John to be a good shot blocker but not necessarily a good rebounder. I hope he proves to be a solid backup for Mark and that should be enough. I'm hoping Mark Williams improves over the summer and he picks up where he left off this past season.

    GoDuke!

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Duke brought in Theo John to be a backup center, to absorb whatever minutes Williams is sitting down. Nothing more, nothing less.
    Yep- pretty simple plan. Seasons are long- players make dumb fouls- some opposing teams have more mobile bigs- he will get minutes when they come.

  20. #60
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    Yep- pretty simple plan. Seasons are long- players make dumb fouls- some opposing teams have more mobile bigs- he will get minutes when they come.
    Yeah, who knows? We may have an important game in Winston-Salem. Long tradition of Duke players getting whistled out.

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