It's finally time... 2021-22 Minutes Thread!

[scottdude8]

I guess I'll be the one to bear the burden of starting this thread (please don't negative spork me too bad, hahaha), since our roster is now in all likelihood set after PBJ's decision to go to Milwaukee. So I'll ask the question here that almost every other thread seems to devolve into during the off-season... how do we see the minutes distribution next year?

I'll give my own best guess, that will more than likely be horribly wrong, first. I'll do so not using the 1-5 positions as traditionally defined, but the more modern definition of ballhandler, wing, and big. I'm also thinking about this as averages over the whole year... i.e., I don't think Wendell will play 5 mpg at the backup point guard, but there'll be games where he plays very little there and games where he plays there for longer stretches that'll average to 5 mpg.

Starters:
Ballhandler: Jeremy Roach (33 minutes)
Wings: Wendell Moore (28 minutes), AJ Griffin (25 minutes)
Bigs: Paolo Banchero (32 minutes), Mark Williams (33 minutes)

Bench/Perturbations
Ballhandler: Wendell (5 minutes), Jaylen Blakes (2 minutes)
Wings: Trevor Keels (20 minutes), Joey Baker (7 minutes)
Bigs: AJ Griffin (5 minutes), Theo John (10 minutes), Bates Jones (emergency)

What's exciting about this team is its versatility... there could be times where we play Mark and Theo alongside each other as "bigs" and Paolo plays on the wing for a bit, for instance. Hard to account for all those perturbations in a straightforward prediction like this.

So, there it is. I've taken the bullet and started the conversation that will likely consume the board until football season starts. Tell me why I'm horribly, horribly wrong

[arnie]

I guess I'll be the one to bear the burden of starting this thread (please don't negative spork me too bad, hahaha), since our roster is now in all likelihood set after PBJ's decision to go to Milwaukee. So I'll ask the question here that almost every other thread seems to devolve into during the off-season... how do we see the minutes distribution next year?

I'll give my own best guess, that will more than likely be horribly wrong, first. I'll do so not using the 1-5 positions as traditionally defined, but the more modern definition of ballhandler, wing, and big. I'm also thinking about this as averages over the whole year... i.e., I don't think Wendell will play 5 mpg at the backup point guard, but there'll be games where he plays very little there and games where he plays there for longer stretches that'll average to 5 mpg.

Starters:
Ballhandler: Jeremy Roach (33 minutes)
Wings: Wendell Moore (28 minutes), AJ Griffin (25 minutes)
Bigs: Paolo Banchero (32 minutes), Mark Williams (33 minutes)

Bench/Perturbations
Ballhandler: Wendell (5 minutes), Jaylen Blakes (2 minutes)
Wings: Trevor Keels (20 minutes), Joey Baker (7 minutes)
Bigs: AJ Griffin (5 minutes), Theo John (10 minutes), Bates Jones (emergency)

What's exciting about this team is its versatility... there could be times where we play Mark and Theo alongside each other as "bigs" and Paolo plays on the wing for a bit, for instance. Hard to account for all those perturbations in a straightforward prediction like this.

So, there it is. I've taken the bullet and started the conversation that will likely consume the board until football season starts. Tell me why I'm horribly, horribly wrong

You have 5 players with 30 or more minutes. I hope not😡

[CDu]

My guess is fairly similar to Scott's, but with a bit of variation:

Roach: 32 mpg
Banchero: 32 mpg
Moore: 30 mpg
Williams: 29 mpg
Griffin: 28 mpg
Keels: 22 mpg
Baker: 12 mpg
John: 11 mpg
Blakes: 4 mpg
Other: <1 mpg

[scottdude8]

You have 5 players with 30 or more minutes. I hope not😡

True... but it's not that outlandish. The 2018 squad had all four star freshmen playing more than 29.7 minutes per game. As many have said, this squad has a clear Top 6 (the starters plus Keels), with our seventh and eighth men (Baker and John) likely going to be playing complimentary minutes. While you're probably right that averaged over the whole season we probably won't have 5 guys playing more than 30 mpg, I wouldn't be shocked if that's what happens down the stretch in February/March/(hopefully) April. K is going to do everything he can to keep our uber-talented guys on the floor.

Honestly, I don't think there could.

I agree that such a lineup wouldn't be optimal. But I could imagine it being used in very specific spots, for instance if FSU wants to trot out a very big lineup and we get in foul trouble, or if we want to experiment with an ultra long 2-3 zone. If it happens, it probably won't happen much, but I wouldn't rule out anything with the diverse pieces we have on this roster.

[SkyBrickey]

My guess is fairly similar to Scott's, but with a bit of variation:

Roach: 32 mpg
Banchero: 32 mpg
Moore: 30 mpg
Williams: 29 mpg
Griffin: 28 mpg
Keels: 22 mpg
Baker: 12 mpg
John: 11 mpg
Blakes: 4 mpg
Other: <1 mpg

I think this is a good distribution assuming Roach makes the leap we all expect him to.

If not, I could see more experimentation with Moore or Keels at PG. I don't expect Blakes to get crunch time minutes this season unless he turns out to be a very strong M2M defender (better than Roach) and we need him to slow down an opposing PG.

[JayZee]

I think this is a good distribution assuming Roach makes the leap we all expect him to.

If not, I could see more experimentation with Moore or Keels at PG. I don't expect Blakes to get crunch time minutes this season unless he turns out to be a very strong M2M defender (better than Roach) and we need him to slow down an opposing PG.

I'm a bigger Moore fan than most on the board, and I think/hope he will continue his trajectory. He went from an instant turnover as a freshman to a serviceable ballhandler last year - a pretty big jump. His shot was even looking solid, form wise imo, at the end of the season. He' may always be a complementary player, but we have more players to complement this year.

I also think we see Banchero and Griffin bring the ball up a good amount, especially off rebounds.

Back to Moore. Last year, there were many times when he was our #2 option on offense. Next year, he may never be #2.

[CDu]

My guess is fairly similar to Scott's, but with a bit of variation:

Roach: 32 mpg
Banchero: 32 mpg
Moore: 30 mpg
Williams: 29 mpg
Griffin: 28 mpg
Keels: 22 mpg
Baker: 12 mpg
John: 11 mpg
Blakes: 4 mpg
Other: <1 mpg

My updates based on offseason:
Banchero: 32
Keels: 31
Moore: 30
Roach: 29
Williams: 28
Griffin: 22
John: 12
Baker:11
Blakes: 3
Jones: 2
Other: <1

Mainly bumping up Keels and down Griffin based on the offseason.

[MChambers]

Banchero 32
Moore 30
Keels 30
Griffin 27
Williams 25
Roach 25
John 13
Baker 11
Blakes 5
Jones 2

As much as I like the idea of K going small, this roster seems to me to make it difficult. I doubt we'll see Banchero at the 5 much this year, except when we have lots of foul trouble with our bigs, or if a smaller quicker team makes us adjust.

[MarkD83]

Here's hoping...

Banchero 25
Moore 25
Keels 20
Griffin 20
Williams 20
Roach 20
John 20
Baker 15
Blakes 10
Jones 10
Savarino 5
Worthington 5
Borden 3
Hubbard 2

[jimsumner]

Here's hoping...

Banchero 25
Moore 25
Keels 20
Griffin 20
Williams 20
Roach 20
John 20
Baker 15
Blakes 10
Jones 10
Savarino 5
Worthington 5
Borden 3
Hubbard 2

Expecting lots of one-sided losses?

[ElliottHoo]

Expecting lots of one-sided losses?

Well, he did say “Here’s hoping”. A bunch of 85-55 wins seems like a reasonable thing to hope for.

[arnie]

Banchero 35
Moore 30
Williams 30
Keels 26
Griffin 26
Roach 22
John 11
Baker 10
Blakes 6
Jones 2
Savarino 1
Worthington .5
Borden .5

[mr. synellinden]

Banchero - 32
Moore - 32
Williams - 30
Roach - 28
Keels - 28
Griffin - 24
John - 10
Baker - 10
Blakes - 6

[MarkD83]

Well, he did say “Here’s hoping”. A bunch of 85-55 wins seems like a reasonable thing to hope for.

Yes I am hoping for scores like this... (of course don't put this in the "jinx" thread or I will have a lot of explaining to do).

[DallasDevil]

Moore: 34
Banchero: 32
Roach: 31
Keels: 28
Williams: 26
Griffin: 21
John: 13
Baker: 12
Blakes: 2
Others: 1

[curtis325]

Moore: 32
Banchero: 30
Williams: 29
Keels: 28
Roach: 26
Griffin: 20
Baker:17
John: 13
Blakes: 2
Jones: 2

[Nugget]

Banchero 32
Moore 30
Keels 30
Griffin 27
Williams 25
Roach 25
John 13
Baker 11
Blakes 5
Jones 2

As much as I like the idea of K going small, this roster seems to me to make it difficult. I doubt we'll see Banchero at the 5 much this year, except when we have lots of foul trouble with our bigs, or if a smaller quicker team makes us adjust.

This sounds generally right to me. Mine was very similar (though I guess I'm underplaying Griffin a bit due to his injuries last year and this).

Banchero-32
Moore-31
Roach-30
Keels-28
Williams-27
Griffin-23
John-14
Baker-11
Jones-2
Blakes-2

[whereinthehellami]

Moore-33
Banchero-31
Roach-30
Keels-28
Williams-25
Griffin-25
John-15
Baker-7
Blakes-4
Jones-2

[Kedsy]

You have 5 players with 30 or more minutes. I hope not😡

I think there might not be five guys with 30+ mpg for the season, because there will be plenty of blowouts in which the top five guys don't have to play their full allotment of minutes, but in games that count, I think Scott is probably right. And even for the full season, we'll likely have at least four guys with 27+ mpg. That's basically standard for Coach K (rounding up to the nearest whole minute, e.g., 26.7 = 27):

Year	27+	30+
2021	5	2
2020	2	1
2019	4	4
2018	5	4
2017	5	5
2016	5	4
2015	4	3
2014	3	3
2013	5	3
2012	3	2
2011	2	2
2010	3	3
2009	3	3
2008	4	1
2007	4	4
2006	4	4
2005	4	3
2004	4	4
2003	4	3
2002	5	3
2001	5	2
2000	4	3
1999	4	2

We've had four 30+ guys in four of the past six seasons (though neither of the past two). But as noted above, four or five guys with 27+ mpg is pretty much the norm.

In half of the last ten seasons, we've had five guys playing 27+ mpg. We've had at least four 27+ guys in seven of the past ten (70%), and 17 of the past 23 seasons (74%). In seasons in which this hasn't been true, it's usually because there's not a clear delineation among the top players and the top subs, but that shouldn't be the case next season. Assuming no late additions, we'll only have 10 recruited scholarship players, and Bates Jones is likely to be no more than a glorified walk-on, meaning we'll really only have nine. It's unclear where Trevor Keels will fit in, but Theo John and Jaylen Blakes should certainly be a clear step down from our top five guys. If Keels is also a step down, we'll almost certainly have five guys at 27+ (maybe five guys at or close to 30+). If Keels is on par with, e.g., Roach and Moore, then we probably won't have five guys with 30+, but we'd still probably have five guys with 27+, and possibly six.

That said, I don't know why having four or five guys playing lots of minutes would be a bad thing. If we amend the above table to include only Duke teams in the date range that made the Elite Eight or better, every such team had at least four guys averaging 27+ minutes, except 2010 (a team that had three guys who played 35+ mpg, making it harder for a fourth or fifth guy to sneak in there).

Year	27+	30+
2019	4	4
2018	5	4
2015	4	3
2013	5	3
2010	3	3
2004	4	4
2001	5	2
1999	4	2

[Kedsy]

there could be times where we play Mark and Theo alongside each other as "bigs" and Paolo plays on the wing for a bit, for instance.

Honestly, I don't think there could.