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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    One of the weaknesses of last year's team was that we didn't have guys who could create opportunities for their teammates. Guys who could penetrate and, if not finish themselves, dish to a teammate for a good look or a drive opportunity.
    I've mentioned this before, but it may be worth noting again: despite the 2021 Duke team's lack of a traditional drive-and-dish PG, the team managed to get plenty of assists. The 2021 team had the 2nd-highest assist% and 2nd-highest assists per game of all Duke teams in the past 19 years. This is especially true once Mark Williams started playing a bigger role in our offense. In the games in which Mark played 10+ minutes, the team averaged 17.8 assists per game, which for a full season would be the 4th-highest apg ever for a Duke team under Coach K.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I think Scott's point is at any particular moment we should have three or four (sometimes five) playmakers on the court, despite the lack of a traditional PG. Paolo and AJ are believed to be capable of making plays for themselves and/or others. Jeremy, Wendell, both with an added year of experience, and Trevor (7+ apg as a high school senior) should all be able to make plays. Even Mark is a surprisingly strong passer for a 7-footer. So while playmaking may have been a weakness on last year's team, I don't think it's going to be next season, even if we don't have a primary drive-and-dish ballhandler.
    Couldn't have said it better myself. Mark as a passer is something that I'm looking forward to watching this season, as he showed flashes of brilliance in that regard last year.
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  3. #23
    One interesting takeaway Iíve seen from these hypotheses of minutes predictions is that Blakes is being given 3-4 minutes of floor time per contest in most predictions. I remember when he committed reading many posts alluding to him being the final piece of the puzzle to make next yearís Duke team round into being a contender. It will be hard for him to fulfill those type of expectations that many had for him if he gets 3-4 minutes per game, that is unless one really values the contributions he can make in practice and in other situations that arenít actually playing in contests.

  4. #24
    I think the key for Bates to get more PT will be his perimeter defense. He will probably have 4 double digit scoring teammates on the floor so his offense will not be as important as his defensive skills. We all know K will play man to man and unless Roach improves his D we may need Bates to stop the dribble penetration.

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    One interesting takeaway I’ve seen from these hypotheses of minutes predictions is that Blakes is being given 3-4 minutes of floor time per contest in most predictions. I remember when he committed reading many posts alluding to him being the final piece of the puzzle to make next year’s Duke team round into being a contender. It will be hard for him to fulfill those type of expectations that many had for him if he gets 3-4 minutes per game, that is unless one really values the contributions he can make in practice and in other situations that aren’t actually playing in contests.
    Even if he's a LOT better than his recruiting ranking, he's unlikely to beat out Roach, Moore, or Keels for a rotation spot, or even Baker (who will be our only senior). As 9th man on a Coach K team, how many minutes would you expect him to get (outside of garbage time)?

    Quote Originally Posted by RetireVergaJersey View Post
    I think the key for Bates to get more PT will be his perimeter defense. He will probably have 4 double digit scoring teammates on the floor so his offense will not be as important as his defensive skills. We all know K will play man to man and unless Roach improves his D we may need Bates to stop the dribble penetration.
    You mean Jaylen Blakes, right? Not Bates Jones?

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Even if he's a LOT better than his recruiting ranking, he's unlikely to beat out Roach, Moore, or Keels for a rotation spot, or even Baker (who will be our only senior). As 9th man on a Coach K team, how many minutes would you expect him to get (outside of garbage time)?



    You mean Jaylen Blakes, right? Not Bates Jones?
    My mistake. Sorry. Must have been that PBJ sandwich I had for lunch.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    One interesting takeaway Iíve seen from these hypotheses of minutes predictions is that Blakes is being given 3-4 minutes of floor time per contest in most predictions. I remember when he committed reading many posts alluding to him being the final piece of the puzzle to make next yearís Duke team round into being a contender. It will be hard for him to fulfill those type of expectations that many had for him if he gets 3-4 minutes per game, that is unless one really values the contributions he can make in practice and in other situations that arenít actually playing in contests.
    A lot depends on K's comfort level with having Moore and/or Keels playing point. Even if Roach makes that big jump we're all looking for, I suspect he'll cap out at around 30 mpg or so.

    And if he doesn't make that big jump . . . .

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    A lot depends on K's comfort level with having Moore and/or Keels playing point. Even if Roach makes that big jump we're all looking for, I suspect he'll cap out at around 30 mpg or so.

    And if he doesn't make that big jump . . . .
    Good points on Blakes and Roach. If I remember correctly, Roach got into foul trouble in some games and if he doesn't improve on that, someone will have to fill in for him. I don't see Wendell getting many minutes replacing Jeremy. Unless AJ defends the opposing point guard. That would give Duke, AJ, Banchero and Moore/Keels as the ball handlers. Another question for you Jim. Do you think Coach K is through recruiting for 2021-2022?

    GoDuke!

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    Good points on Blakes and Roach. If I remember correctly, Roach got into foul trouble in some games and if he doesn't improve on that, someone will have to fill in for him. I don't see Wendell getting many minutes replacing Jeremy. Unless AJ defends the opposing point guard. That would give Duke, AJ, Banchero and Moore/Keels as the ball handlers. Another question for you Jim. Do you think Coach K is through recruiting for 2021-2022?

    GoDuke!
    Haven't a clue. Under ordinary circumstances I would say yes. But these aren't ordinary circumstances and if something interesting comes in over the transom, who knows?

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    My guess is fairly similar to Scott's, but with a bit of variation:

    Roach: 32 mpg
    Banchero: 32 mpg
    Moore: 30 mpg
    Williams: 29 mpg
    Griffin: 28 mpg
    Keels: 22 mpg
    Baker: 12 mpg
    John: 11 mpg
    Blakes: 4 mpg
    Other: <1 mpg
    I think this is a good distribution assuming Roach makes the leap we all expect him to.

    If not, I could see more experimentation with Moore or Keels at PG. I don't expect Blakes to get crunch time minutes this season unless he turns out to be a very strong M2M defender (better than Roach) and we need him to slow down an opposing PG.

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    I think this is a good distribution assuming Roach makes the leap we all expect him to.

    If not, I could see more experimentation with Moore or Keels at PG. I don't expect Blakes to get crunch time minutes this season unless he turns out to be a very strong M2M defender (better than Roach) and we need him to slow down an opposing PG.
    I'm a bigger Moore fan than most on the board, and I think/hope he will continue his trajectory. He went from an instant turnover as a freshman to a serviceable ballhandler last year - a pretty big jump. His shot was even looking solid, form wise imo, at the end of the season. He' may always be a complementary player, but we have more players to complement this year.

    I also think we see Banchero and Griffin bring the ball up a good amount, especially off rebounds.

    Back to Moore. Last year, there were many times when he was our #2 option on offense. Next year, he may never be #2.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Even if he's a LOT better than his recruiting ranking, he's unlikely to beat out Roach, Moore, or Keels for a rotation spot, or even Baker (who will be our only senior). As 9th man on a Coach K team, how many minutes would you expect him to get (outside of garbage time)?
    I donít have any expectations for his minutes. I have never seen him play so he deserves zero minutes in my mind right now. I was making the point that when he committed, several posters made comments alluding to him being the ďmissing pieceĒ or key component to making Duke a legitimate contender in 2021-2022. I believe thatís over estimating his impact based on several folks thinking heís gonna get 3-4 minutes per game. I would rate the potential impact that a player may have getting 3-4 minutes per game pretty low. Thatís the kind of impact I think Keenan Worthington or Bates Jones will have on Duke or a walk on would have for Duke. Like I said, maybe folks are giving lots of weight to the effectiveness he will have in practice or study hall or being a good guy for off court camaraderie but itís hard for me to see a guy making a huge impact on the team and taking the team from pretender to contender getting 180-240 seconds of ticks per game. The mascot barely gets less minutes than that ...

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    I donít have any expectations for his minutes. I have never seen him play so he deserves zero minutes in my mind right now. I was making the point that when he committed, several posters made comments alluding to him being the ďmissing pieceĒ or key component to making Duke a legitimate contender in 2021-2022. I believe thatís over estimating his impact based on several folks thinking heís gonna get 3-4 minutes per game. I would rate the potential impact that a player may have getting 3-4 minutes per game pretty low. Thatís the kind of impact I think Keenan Worthington or Bates Jones will have on Duke or a walk on would have for Duke. Like I said, maybe folks are giving lots of weight to the effectiveness he will have in practice or study hall or being a good guy for off court camaraderie but itís hard for me to see a guy making a huge impact on the team and taking the team from pretender to contender getting 180-240 seconds of ticks per game. The mascot barely gets less minutes than that ...

    Perhaps the people projecting minimal playing time for Blakes next season and the people who think Blakes was an important recruit for next season are not the same people.

  14. #34
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    Defense

    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Perhaps the people projecting minimal playing time for Blakes next season and the people who think Blakes was an important recruit for next season are not the same people.
    Seems to me that Blakesís chances for playing time depend on whether anyone on the roster can pressure the opposing teamís point guard when Roach is out (assuming Roach can do this). Can Duke play MTM defense with Moore, Keels, or Griffin defending the point? (Of course, Duke could play zone.). If not, then Blakes has a path to meaningful playing time.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Perhaps the people projecting minimal playing time for Blakes next season and the people who think Blakes was an important recruit for next season are not the same people.
    Good point, that could be true.

    Iíve never addressed you personally but thank you for your tireless devotion and genuine dedication to covering the team. I read all of your stuff. You are a good man and writer. Some of us really appreciate it, Mr. Sumner!

  16. #36
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    I do think that Moore will play significant minutes at the 2 and also some at the 1. Not as a traditional break-you-down, 10 assist kind of point guard but as the vocal leader and the coach on the court. It is clear that K trusts him and as the only upperclassman besides Joey (and I guess John with an asterisk) K will put the ball in his hands and let him call out the plays and initiate the offense.

    For that reason I see Roach playing south of 30 minutes per game, I think Moore, Keels, Griffin, and even Banchero can initiate the offense in half court sets, and we switch so much on defense that everybody will take turns guarding the opposing point guard no matter what.

    I know this thread is about minutes averages over the course of the season, but for me the more interesting question is always how will the minutes breakdown in a competitive game against a top opponent? In that scenario I see Moore, Banchero, Griffin going the full 40 or close to it and Roach, Keels and Williams splitting whatever's left fairly evenly.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    I don’t have any expectations for his minutes. I have never seen him play so he deserves zero minutes in my mind right now. I was making the point that when he committed, several posters made comments alluding to him being the “missing piece” or key component to making Duke a legitimate contender in 2021-2022. I believe that’s over estimating his impact based on several folks thinking he’s gonna get 3-4 minutes per game. I would rate the potential impact that a player may have getting 3-4 minutes per game pretty low. That’s the kind of impact I think Keenan Worthington or Bates Jones will have on Duke or a walk on would have for Duke. Like I said, maybe folks are giving lots of weight to the effectiveness he will have in practice or study hall or being a good guy for off court camaraderie but it’s hard for me to see a guy making a huge impact on the team and taking the team from pretender to contender getting 180-240 seconds of ticks per game. The mascot barely gets less minutes than that ...
    Fair enough. I don't think too many people were saying he was the missing piece/key component, or the difference between a pretender and a contender, but some may have. I think more were happy about him being a developmental guard who would hopefully stick around and provide some continuity in future seasons.

    I will say that 3 to 4 minutes per game is significantly more impactful than a walk on. For example, Keenan Worthington played 5 minutes all season in 2020-21. Worthington, Buckmire, and Savarino combined for 14 minutes in 2020-21, or a combined average of 35 seconds per game (10 to 12 seconds per game each, on average, or approximately 20x less than some people are projecting for Blakes).

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    Good point, that could be true.

    Iíve never addressed you personally but thank you for your tireless devotion and genuine dedication to covering the team. I read all of your stuff. You are a good man and writer. Some of us really appreciate it, Mr. Sumner!
    Thank you. I appreciate it.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I do think that Moore will play significant minutes at the 2 and also some at the 1. Not as a traditional break-you-down, 10 assist kind of point guard but as the vocal leader and the coach on the court. It is clear that K trusts him and as the only upperclassman besides Joey (and I guess John with an asterisk) K will put the ball in his hands and let him call out the plays and initiate the offense.

    For that reason I see Roach playing south of 30 minutes per game, I think Moore, Keels, Griffin, and even Banchero can initiate the offense in half court sets, and we switch so much on defense that everybody will take turns guarding the opposing point guard no matter what.

    I know this thread is about minutes averages over the course of the season, but for me the more interesting question is always how will the minutes breakdown in a competitive game against a top opponent? In that scenario I see Moore, Banchero, Griffin going the full 40 or close to it and Roach, Keels and Williams splitting whatever's left fairly evenly.
    I'm with you on those six players being the most logical to log the highest amount of playing time. However, I'm more bullish on Williams being in your top four. Those four players will probably be the best defenders on the team and I expect Williams will not stray far from the basket. As someone posted way back, Williams will get as many minutes as he can handle(fouls, rest, etc.). In my opinion, improvement from Moore and Roach is what's needed to put Duke in the top 5 nationally. Of course if Keels is a drop dead shooter from the perimeter, Moore and Roach improve and the defense is up to Duke standards, that put's Duke in NCAA Championship discussion.

    GoDuke!

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    Good point, that could be true.

    Iíve never addressed you personally but thank you for your tireless devotion and genuine dedication to covering the team. I read all of your stuff. You are a good man and writer. Most, if not all, of us really appreciate it, Mr. Sumner!
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Thank you. I appreciate it.
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