OADs, Transfer Portals, High School Hoops

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Sadly, I think college basketball may be done for. At least as we knew it.

College basketball as I personally knew it evaporated in the night without fanfare about 15-20 years ago.

I'm fine with this. It means kids can realize their market potential, increase their skillset, prepare for the NBA without the farce of a few months as a "student."

Additionally, it puts more pressure on the NCAA to figure out whether or not they want to X (pay players, let colleges pay players, continue to go after players who are getting money).

If this becomes a legit path for these young men, great. Let's get everything out here in the open. If it doesn't, well, these kids took a calculated seven figure risk - not a decision I was presented with at 16.

[uh_no]

It's a sad time for me as a college fan, watching this slow death. And yes, I do believe it's an eventual death. Yes, Duke will field a team. Yes, there will be those that tune in to watch - some out of stubborn ignorance, others out of a true love of Duke, and I'm sure still others more. But I doubt those that tune in will be the practical sort that enjoy building virtual relationships with players, watching improvement, and witnessing high level basketball on the court. With this many transfers (and no end to the trend in sight), the NBA G League Select Team, this OTE team, the foreign route, and various other budding options, I just don't think college basketball will be able to adapt and compete at a level that brings us players and teams that are anywhere near the level of intrigue that we have been used to for decades.

There is plenty of compelling basketball played by upperclassmen-laden college teams who won't necessarily be NBA studs. I think many teams would take offense to the fact that they should be pitied for not being loaded with NBA talent and that they are playing the game at a low level. Frankly, I don't care if zion and RJ type players aren't at duke or in college at all. The level of ability in some of these guys who have little in terms of NBA prospects is still very very high. I mean, hell, how many players has duke had be major contributors that ultimately didn't cut it in the league? At least two of them are sitting on our bench (though TBF, one is partially due to injury).

There will always be a market for college sports (okay, likely always), and there will likely always be enough talent to have compelling games, even if it isn't zion thunder-dunking every other possession.

[ChillinDuke]

There is plenty of compelling basketball played by upperclassmen-laden college teams who won't necessarily be NBA studs. I think many teams would take offense to the fact that they should be pitied for not being loaded with NBA talent and that they are playing the game at a low level. Frankly, I don't care if zion and RJ type players aren't at duke or in college at all. The level of ability in some of these guys who have little in terms of NBA prospects is still very very high. I mean, hell, how many players has duke had be major contributors that ultimately didn't cut it in the league? At least two of them are sitting on our bench (though TBF, one is partially due to injury).

There will always be a market for college sports (okay, likely always), and there will likely always be enough talent to have compelling games, even if it isn't zion thunder-dunking every other possession.

We're in different universes on this particular topic.

If two top-15 HS juniors are going to get paid $500k/yr on Day-1 of an upstart amateur/pro league, do you not think some logical growth and extrapolation could foresee hundreds of kids getting payments that are well worth their time to forego college? Not to mention the stigma that is going to need to be battled hard by college coaches to stay relevant in a world where the top kids are going to non-college teams.

I think this is quickly becoming an every-man-for-himself basketball culture starting at a very young age with college basketball potentially ranking mediocre at best on the pecking order.

We will see. Maybe it doesn't accelerate the way I'm envisioning, but $500K/yr as a junior strikes me as a significant high (low?) water mark. Hard to imagine it stops at $500k/yr and/or juniors and/or Top-15 players. I think this is quickly advancing past a "Duke-caliber player" issue.

- Chillin

[75Crazie]

I think this is quickly becoming an every-man-for-himself basketball culture starting at a very young age with college basketball potentially ranking mediocre at best on the pecking order.

I am more than fine with this. Baseball has been this way for decades; I don't see college baseball being at all ignored by players with pro potential and there is still some compelling games being played at that level. If college basketball evolves to a model that is more in tune with its amateur intent, more the better from my perspective.

[WillJ]

I am more than fine with this. Baseball has been this way for decades; I don't see college baseball being at all ignored by players with pro potential and there is still some compelling games being played at that level. If college basketball evolves to a model that is more in tune with its amateur intent, more the better from my perspective.

I agree with all this, but I'll note that I don't watch college baseball.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I am more than fine with this. Baseball has been this way for decades; I don't see college baseball being at all ignored by players with pro potential and there is still some compelling games being played at that level. If college basketball evolves to a model that is more in tune with its amateur intent, more the better from my perspective.

Also, those who watch college baseball don't do it for the massive star power of the teams.

[Indoor66]

I still am skeptical about the viability of this plan. Who has ever heard of these kids outside of their neighborhood and a few recruiting maniacs? There is no star power in these kids. Where do the paying fans come from?

[DukieTiger]

We're in different universes on this particular topic.

If two top-15 HS juniors are going to get paid $500k/yr on Day-1 of an upstart amateur/pro league, do you not think some logical growth and extrapolation could foresee hundreds of kids getting payments that are well worth their time to forego college? Not to mention the stigma that is going to need to be battled hard by college coaches to stay relevant in a world where the top kids are going to non-college teams.

I think this is quickly becoming an every-man-for-himself basketball culture starting at a very young age with college basketball potentially ranking mediocre at best on the pecking order.

We will see. Maybe it doesn't accelerate the way I'm envisioning, but $500K/yr as a junior strikes me as a significant high (low?) water mark. Hard to imagine it stops at $500k/yr and/or juniors and/or Top-15 players. I think this is quickly advancing past a "Duke-caliber player" issue.

- Chillin

I’ll be shocked if this league takes off. Where’s the market that justifies paying high school kids that much to play against each other?

While I’m all in favor of college athletes being compensated fairly for the value they bring, I think we’re going to quickly see that many, many people watch college basketball because of the name on the front of the jersey, not on the back. Sure, there are exceptions like Zion, but Zion is one in 7 billion.

Not saying college hoops wouldn’t lose eyeballs if it’s best players went this route. Just saying that I highly doubt Overtime is gonna catch enough of those eyeballs to justify the salaries required to steal these players from college programs.

[TheTrain]

I still am skeptical about the viability of this plan. Who has ever heard of these kids outside of their neighborhood and a few recruiting maniacs? There is no star power in these kids. Where do the paying fans come from?

I am friends with one of the advisors of plan. We met for lunch 2 weeks ago. This is precisely what I told him. In fact, I believe that a large portion of the NBA’s lagging television ratings is due to lack of name recognition to the masses outside of 10-12 players. College basketball was a boon to the business model of the NBA as it provided free marketing

[CrazyNotCrazie]

And now the #7 Class of 2022 player is graduating early to go straight to the G League - he will have to spend two years there as you have to be 19 to play in the NBA.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...te-next-season

[House P]

Thought I would revive this thread to post this article - twin brothers who are top Class of 23 recruits (one is #3, other is #12) signed with Overtime Elite. It says they are sacrificing HS and college eligibility for seven figure deals. I want to know what commitments they had to make - portion of future income or something like that?

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...ue-sources-say

Like many in this thread, I don't pretend to understand the business model which justifies seven figure deals to rising high school juniors who aren't (currently) very famous. That being said, I didn't (initially) understand the business model of many ventures that now appear quite successful (Google, Facebook, Twitter, Netflix, Bitcoin, NFTs, the Khardashians, etc).

If as you mention, the organizers are somehow getting a cut of future earnings, I can see a better rationale for these payments. I can imagine a sports agent advancing a top level prospect a significant sum of money to sign a long term deal, even if the earnings a limited for the first few years.

For example, consider the Top 30 RSCI prospects as of the Summer before their senior year in High School. As far as I can tell, the sum total of the guaranteed NBA contracts (past and future) for the top 30 players in this relatively weak class* is $618,931,415. A savy investor could probably make a good business case for paying considerable sums to these type of players in exchange for a cut of future earnings.



*The top 10 players in this class (prior to their Senior year) were Ben Simmons, Jaylen Brown, Malik Newman, Chieck Diallo, Ivan Rabb, Diamond Stone, Skal Labissiere, Chase Jeter, Caleb Swanigan, and Alonzo Trier).

[johnb]

My understanding is that pro baseball has always been more popular than college baseball, in contrast to football and basketball, where the college sport was initially way more popular..

One ramification: when minor leagues began to be developed in the 1920’s, America was more rural, less college educated, and didn’t have tv. I’d guess that’d make all those farm teams more viable and the lack of college less of a problem.

In 2021, I’m mixed about the large number of high school baseball players who go pro. Even more than in the other sports, baseball has a simply enormous variation in salaries. There’s a huge difference between MLB stars and average MLB players, but minor league players barely make expenses, and most have hardly any chance to make the majors. This leaves most of them at age 30 with no money, no skills, and no degree. No one forced them into the decision, but it would be hard to turn down the Yankees, plus 18 year old guys are not known for their wisdom.

[DevilYouKnow]

I'm in my 40s so I'm not the target audience, but Overtime (the company that just raised $80 million from Bezos and others) and other sites like it don't make money by charging you to watch. They make money off of advertising and selling related merchandise and through other brand extensions. I personally have very little interest but they get millions of views. And these teenagers who are doing the viewing have a lot of purchasing power - shoes, soft drinks, etc. I'm not sure if this league idea will work, but they are doing very well with their existing business model of showing clips of HS kids.

Also, as a 40 year old, your brand preferences are far more entrenched than teenagers' are. If advertisers can get teenagers hooked on brand loyalties young, then they will be easier to retain going forward.

[tommy]

Like many in this thread, I don't pretend to understand the business model which justifies seven figure deals to rising high school juniors who aren't (currently) very famous. That being said, I didn't (initially) understand the business model of many ventures that now appear quite successful (Google, Facebook, Twitter, Netflix, Bitcoin, NFTs, the Khardashians, etc).

If as you mention, the organizers are somehow getting a cut of future earnings, I can see a better rationale for these payments. I can imagine a sports agent advancing a top level prospect a significant sum of money to sign a long term deal, even if the earnings a limited for the first few years.

For example, consider the Top 30 RSCI prospects as of the Summer before their senior year in High School. As far as I can tell, the sum total of the guaranteed NBA contracts (past and future) for the top 30 players in this relatively weak class* is $618,931,415. A savy investor could probably make a good business case for paying considerable sums to these type of players in exchange for a cut of future earnings.



*The top 10 players in this class (prior to their Senior year) were Ben Simmons, Jaylen Brown, Malik Newman, Chieck Diallo, Ivan Rabb, Diamond Stone, Skal Labissiere, Chase Jeter, Caleb Swanigan, and Alonzo Trier).

Interesting. And notable that the majority of those top 30 players are nowhere close to being in the NBA right now. And of the $618M you have calculated this group made in guaranteed money, I'd venture to guess that the large majority of it has been made by just five players: Simmons, Jaylen Brown, Brandon Ingram, Luke Kennard, and Donovan Mitchell. I guess Allonzo Trier, Jalen Brunson, and Dwayne Bacon have made some, but still only five of the top 30 players (and one of the top 17) have been good enough to matter in the league.

[MartyClark]

All this raises an interesting legal question. A junior in high school is 16 0r 17 years old, below the age of majority in most, if not all, states. How can a minor sign an enforceable contract?

In Colorado, for example, minority is an affirmative defense. This defense is proved if the player, in this case, was under 18 at the time the contract was entered into and if the player disaffirmed or rejected the contract before becoming 18 or within a reasonable time after becoming 18.

Assuming there is an obligation for the player to pay a portion of future earnings, what's to prevent a 16 or 17 year old from getting the advantage of the contract until 18 and then disaffirming the contract?

[lotusland]

I’ll be shocked if this league takes off. Where’s the market that justifies paying high school kids that much to play against each other?

While I’m all in favor of college athletes being compensated fairly for the value they bring, I think we’re going to quickly see that many, many people watch college basketball because of the name on the front of the jersey, not on the back. Sure, there are exceptions like Zion, but Zion is one in 7 billion.

Not saying college hoops wouldn’t lose eyeballs if it’s best players went this route. Just saying that I highly doubt Overtime is gonna catch enough of those eyeballs to justify the salaries required to steal these players from college programs.

Well said. My thoughts exactly. The McDonalds AA game is horrible basketball and those are seniors. Almost no one would watch if the players weren’t committed to their favorite college team or their rivals. There is no market for this league. It will fail.

[lotusland]

Like many in this thread, I don't pretend to understand the business model which justifies seven figure deals to rising high school juniors who aren't (currently) very famous. That being said, I didn't (initially) understand the business model of many ventures that now appear quite successful (Google, Facebook, Twitter, Netflix, Bitcoin, NFTs, the Khardashians, etc).

If as you mention, the organizers are somehow getting a cut of future earnings, I can see a better rationale for these payments. I can imagine a sports agent advancing a top level prospect a significant sum of money to sign a long term deal, even if the earnings a limited for the first few years.

For example, consider the Top 30 RSCI prospects as of the Summer before their senior year in High School. As far as I can tell, the sum total of the guaranteed NBA contracts (past and future) for the top 30 players in this relatively weak class* is $618,931,415. A savy investor could probably make a good business case for paying considerable sums to these type of players in exchange for a cut of future earnings.



*The top 10 players in this class (prior to their Senior year) were Ben Simmons, Jaylen Brown, Malik Newman, Chieck Diallo, Ivan Rabb, Diamond Stone, Skal Labissiere, Chase Jeter, Caleb Swanigan, and Alonzo Trier).

There is undoubtably numerous ways to monetize products that I’m not aware of but trying to monetize boring, crappy basketball games will not work for long. If a player’s potential future value is worth investing in, then someone will invest in it. They don’t have to have an “all-star” league of HS juniors that no one cares about to do that. So unless the league makes money, why bother.

[uh_no]

We're in different universes on this particular topic.

If two top-15 HS juniors are going to get paid $500k/yr on Day-1 of an upstart amateur/pro league, do you not think some logical growth and extrapolation could foresee hundreds of kids getting payments that are well worth their time to forego college? Not to mention the stigma that is going to need to be battled hard by college coaches to stay relevant in a world where the top kids are going to non-college teams.

I think this is quickly becoming an every-man-for-himself basketball culture starting at a very young age with college basketball potentially ranking mediocre at best on the pecking order.

We will see. Maybe it doesn't accelerate the way I'm envisioning, but $500K/yr as a junior strikes me as a significant high (low?) water mark. Hard to imagine it stops at $500k/yr and/or juniors and/or Top-15 players. I think this is quickly advancing past a "Duke-caliber player" issue.

- Chillin

There's a reason why the contracts for minor league baseball players, and G-league basketball players, and any attempt at an upstart fotball league are so low. There is no market for it. So no, I don't think "logical growth" is hundreds of kids getting payment...because the money simply isn't there, in basketball or any other sport save locally based FA clubs in europe.

[sagegrouse]

There is undoubtably numerous ways to monetize products that I’m not aware of but trying to monetize boring, crappy basketball games will not work for long. If a player’s potential future value is worth investing in, then someone will invest in it. They don’t have to have an “all-star” league of HS juniors that no one cares about to do that. So unless the league makes money, why bother.

Is it time to say, "the name on the front of the jersey" is important? As in, Duke Ky., Kansas, Celtics, Lakers, Knicks, Bulls, Tar Heels.

[CoachJ10]

All this raises an interesting legal question. A junior in high school is 16 0r 17 years old, below the age of majority in most, if not all, states. How can a minor sign an enforceable contract?

In Colorado, for example, minority is an affirmative defense. This defense is proved if the player, in this case, was under 18 at the time the contract was entered into and if the player disaffirmed or rejected the contract before becoming 18 or within a reasonable time after becoming 18.

Assuming there is an obligation for the player to pay a portion of future earnings, what's to prevent a 16 or 17 year old from getting the advantage of the contract until 18 and then disaffirming the contract?

I am with you on thinking that there are going to be a LOT of issues on the "contract" front. As well as giving up future earnings sounds good when you are getting money up front...it sound a lot worse when you are making those future earnings.