Henry Coleman to Texas A&M

[CameronDuke]

I'm not sure what the point of this post is. How many folks outside of Duke fans do you think have heard of Coleman?

I’m from Richmond so I followed his recruitment quite closely. I had heard of him.

The point was some folks are saying John is going to severely take Henry’s minutes, almost like a Goliath (John) vs David (Henry) matchup where it’s virtually impossible for Henry to get any burn. Hadn’t even heard and the guy and don’t expect him to be a juggernaut that is going to magically come into Duke and dominate.

[uh_no]

Lets stop getting attached to these players and start getting attached to our program's goals: winning ACC Regular season titles, winning ACC Tournament titles and winning National Championships.

Because many/most of us are interested in winning titles BECAUSE we are invested in the players. If I wanted to watch a bunch of mercenaries, I could watch far higher quality at the NBA level than we get in college.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Risky for what though? Do you see Henry as perennial NBA all star? I see him having a similar collegiate and professional career to Josh Hairston for example.

Do you understand the value of a Duke degree and being an ambassador to the university?

Yes. I do. I have two degrees from Duke.

But I don't have aspirations to become an NBA player. And I know to get there, I need to play. And he isn't likely to play a lot next year at Duke.

Duke showed Coleman no faith by bringing in John. Why the hell would he want to be an ambassador to this school?

Also, if his ceiling is Josh Hairston, he is never adding value on the court.

[Alan_Wilson]

Yes, I do think that's better for his career. Because he can go there and start next year. And if he starts next year, who is to say he won't do enough to get on draft radar? If he'd stayed this year, with or without John, he was probably not playing more than like 10-15 mpg. And there is no guarantee he'd be starting at Duke even as a junior.

.

There was all sorts of noise prior to the season about how Duke viewed Coleman as a four year player. Which presumably means they expected him to develop over four years, and like you said, he could be looking at light minutes even as a sophomore because his development was a long term project. The inexplicable Theo John offer to me contradicted that and just screams we'd rather get a cheap transfer and save ourselves the work when we can just plug in this new guy instead of you. Great message to Coleman.

[Steven43]

Hard to help it after the hostility/criticism directed at people who were predicting a number of departures.

I was just messin’ with you a little bit. Looks like you were correct in the end.

What’s your next prediction?

[CameronDuke]

I think Henry could have won rotation minutes, but I also think John was recruited to be a main rotation guy and that Henry was going to be the odd man out unless John ended up getting hurt or being a bust.

If I'm a recruit, I want the staff to bet on me and not bet on a one year rental player and even if I *knew* I could fight to earn spot minutes, I'd be more content going elsewhere and get 25-30 minutes per game to showcase my abilities.

I can't say whether he'd play after college or not because I haven't seen him play enough in college. I know that when Semi transferred to SMU to beat up on Houston, South Florida, Tulane, etc, he went from "may not ever play after college" to "rotation guy for the Boston Celtics." Playing time matters.

I see your Semi point and raise you Derryck Thornton ...

And I’ve seen Henry play. Just FYI, he AIN’T Semi Ojeleye ...

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Apologies if someone said this already, but to make lemonade out of lemons, is this a positive sign towards Mark staying?

[CDu]

You're probably right, I guess. Obviously, the staff thinks so or they wouldn't have done it, and they're far more expert than I am.

I admit I've never seen Theo John play (or at least I've never noticed him on the rare occasion I saw a few minutes of Marquette on TV), but his advanced stats aren't particularly good (except for blocks) and Henry's are better (admittedly in a small sample). Plus, from the dreaded eye test, I thought Henry looked pretty good when he got the opportunity (which, to me, backs up the limited sample stats). Alas, nothing any of us can do about it now.

As we've discussed, though, those stats were compiled almost entirely in blowouts. And in very limited minutes at that. I'm not confident they would translate to a starting role. I could definitely imagine that Coleman would be a better rebounder than John, but I'd be absolutely shocked if he approached John's shotblocking prowess or even John's physicality (that's not at all a slight on Coleman, who is obviously tough; John is just much bigger and older). And beyond just the on-court stats, John brings a level of experience that Coleman simply can't offer.

It's certainly possible that the staff is miscalculating. But they are working with WAY more info than we are, both in terms of Coleman AND in terms of John (I'm quite sure that Coach K got detailed info from Carrawell and Wojo about John). So I would suspect that they have a pretty good idea that he'll provide more of what the team needs next year than Coleman would have.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Apologies if someone said this already, but to make lemonade out of lemons, is this a positive sign towards Mark staying?

Not related. Coleman isn't threatening Williams's minutes.

Williams isn't transferring. He's staying or going pro.

If you want lemonade, the coaching staff likes our chances better with John than with Coleman.

More lemonade? Banchero, if he can stay on the floor, will be a beast (potential future #1 pick)

More lemonade? Zion is fun to watch in the NBA

[Son of Jarhead]

Just for some context and perspective, there are 5,431 current Division 1 college basketball players (according to google).

There are currently 1,417 players (including Coleman) in the transfer portal. That's 26% of all D1 players.

Just let that sink in. 1 in 4 are in the transfer portal. Every team is experiencing turnover at this point at an unprecedented rate.

Because of the "Free 5th Year" this year, there are more players available than ever for those 5,431 spots. In any other year, a Senior like Jordan Goldwire would be done, but now that he's got a 5th year, he's taking one of those D1 spots that some other kid might have gotten. I know the NCAA meant well, but this is the unintended consequence of the free 5th year. Not only will some high school seniors not get scholarship offers at all that would have in another year, but some of those transfers will not find an empty seat when the music stops either. Some may well end up back where they started... if there is room for them... and others will be taking bigger steps down than they hoped. I hope the NCAA is paying attention to that side of these things before they go making any new rule changes.

I'm going to miss all the guys that are leaving, and I wish them all well, but I would just rather not lose them all at once like this.

Disappointment has become disillusionment, and I do NOT like it. No sir, not one bit.

At this point, I feel like George Jetson, caught up in the treadmill AGAIN, yelling for Jane, Judy, anybody to... "turn off this crazy thinnnnng!!!"

[CDu]

I’m from Richmond so I followed his recruitment quite closely. I had heard of him.

Presumably you are also a Duke fan, right? So you were already included.

The point was some folks are saying John is going to severely take Henry’s minutes, almost like a Goliath (John) vs David (Henry) matchup where it’s virtually impossible for Henry to get any burn. Hadn’t even heard and the guy and don’t expect him to be a juggernaut that is going to magically come into Duke and dominate.

And my point is that it isn't like Coleman is some well-known commodity outside of very select circles.

You apparently didn't follow Big East basketball and are a Duke fan from Richmond, so perhaps your lens is less clear than the average person looking at this? We're talking about a 3-year starter at a P6 school vs a kid who played mostly mopup minutes. The expectation should absolutely be that John would play over Coleman next year.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Not related. Coleman isn't threatening Williams's minutes.

Williams isn't transferring. He's staying or going pro.

If you want lemonade, the coaching staff likes our chances better with John than with Coleman.

More lemonade? Banchero, if he can stay on the floor, will be a beast (potential future #1 pick)

More lemonade? Zion is fun to watch in the NBA

Other way around. Henry knew Mark was staying. If Mark was leaving, that might have freed up some minutes for Henry and maybe he would be more inclined to stay. Mark staying means there is a much smaller chance of Henry getting PT. I think this is largely wishful thinking on my part (that Mark's decision is influencing Henry's) but let me have my fun.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Other way around. Henry knew Mark was staying. If Mark was leaving, that might have freed up some minutes for Henry and maybe he would be more inclined to stay. Mark staying means there is a much smaller chance of Henry getting PT. I think this is largely wishful thinking on my part (that Mark's decision is influencing Henry's) but let me have my fun.

I like it. Keep that optimism up. It's a rare thing in college ball these days...

[brlftz]

ETA: CNC beat me to it

[Truth&Justise]

What I really hate about this transfer freedom is that there is this media narrative that it's "pro-player". What about the four-year player who would have loved a Duke offer, but didn't get one because we recruited someone more highly rated who transferred right away? We can't just go back in time and send an offer to that kid who really wanted to be a Blue Devil. I know that the NCAA loosened these restrictions because it's a non-monetary way of looking like the good guy, but it's bad for the schools, bad for a lot of kids, and bad for college basketball when everyone transfers right away. Recruits make a decision to sign with a school. If you took that limited resource away from someone else (a scholarship), you shouldn't be able to just toss it aside with no consequences. One year sit-out, no exceptions. Hopefully the NCAA will realize what they've done in short order.

In your hypothetical, that other player who didn't initially get an offer could transfer to Duke and take the spot of the other guy who just transferred away.

Free transfers certainly decrease roster stability and take a lot of control away from coaches, but it's hard to spin this as anything other than "pro player."

[budwom]

the notion of recruiting 3-4 year guys AND still recruiting the top OAD kids seems to be inoperative, as much as we may have hoped it would work. (and I guess Theo John is basically an OAD guy)...

[Billy Dat]

@NdotSmitty, 44m
Accountability.

The replies to this tweet are pretty classic.

[TKG]

There will be a roster published at the start of the season, yes? Can’t tell the players without a program.

[simplyluvin]

Not related. Coleman isn't threatening Williams's minutes.

Williams isn't transferring. He's staying or going pro.

If you want lemonade, the coaching staff likes our chances better with John than with Coleman.

More lemonade? Banchero, if he can stay on the floor, will be a beast (potential future #1 pick)

More lemonade? Zion is fun to watch in the NBA

Hoping this is lemonade that is being brewed...if PBJ is not coming, this could be a good opportunity to find another good transfer. i would vote for a good shooting guard with more than a year of eligibility. This could be an opportunity to better balance the team...maybe really sweet lemonade?

[DavidBenAkiva]

@NdotSmitty, 44m
Accountability.

The replies to this tweet are pretty classic.

I feel very confident that tweet had nothing to do with basketball.