Henry Coleman to Texas A&M

[SkyBrickey]

Duke should just recruit surefire OADs who are All-American caliber like Banchero as soon as they step on campus and fill out the rest of the roster with the best transfers available.

Raiding the transfer portal has worked great for the Muss Bus over at Nevada/Arkansas and for Chris Beard over at TTU.

Duke can actually use this new change in the college basketball landscape to its benefit due to its incredible prestige, TV exposure and NBA connections through Coach K and staff. If we have a starting spot available, the best transfer at that position will jump at that opportunity immediately.

Lets stop worrying about developing multi-year players. Gen Z'ers are incredibly adaptive and they're used to jumping from place to place anyway. They don't need to have their hand held and experience emotional and personal growth on one campus. Gen Z'ers are used to packing and unpacking their bags.

For you old timers, I know the romance of college basketball is dead - watching a raw Brian Zoubek and Quinn Cook blossom into key upperclassmen on national championship squads...those days are gone.

Lets stop getting attached to these players and start getting attached to our program's goals: winning ACC Regular season titles, winning ACC Tournament titles and winning National Championships.

Right. Basketball factory. And let’s create a bunch of athlete only paper classes, because who really cares what they learn in their 9 months on campus. - Old Timer

[hustleplays]

I think this is heralding the beginning of a new kind of one and done in the basketball world. Freshmen commiting to to test out a school or use it as a resume booster to negotiate more minutes at a different school.

The solution for Duke would simply sell our usefulness as a one year pitstop for players ranked 40s and below. Come and get one years worth of Duke strength and conditioning, practice against the best, play against the best, and get name exposure without getting much play time.

So in addition to bringing 3-4 1nd dones per year, we need to bring in 3-4 one and transfers.

Proelitedata, Sorry I didn't see your post when I submitted mine. You put it well: Freshmen committing to Duke as a one year pitstop and resume booster. The one-year contribution of the original school is given no special weight.

I remember when many of us, including me, regarded Calipari's one year NBA Prep Camp with repugnance. Now, a Prep Camp for 2nd year college players? What are my limits as a college basketball fan?

[Kedsy]

Would Coleman and Brakefield have left if there were #20-60 frontcourt guys recruited behind them and not top 10 guys recruited over the top of them? I suspect maybe not. What would a Duke starting lineup look like if we only recruited #20-60 ranked guys for 4 consecutive years? I believe we’d be starting 3-4 upperclassmen and could field sweet16 teams every year who could compete against a OAD loaded but inexperienced Kentucky.

I think most of our teams would resemble our 2020-21 team, with the occasional (maybe once in four or five years) team that could make the Elite Eight.

[CameronDuke]

Taking Theo John was absolutely recruiting over Henry Coleman, because he will be playing the same role Henry would have played. AJ Griffin and Paolo Banchero will be playing starring roles, and I'm sure Henry realizes he's not ready for that. But if Coach K doesn't even trust him to be the 3rd big playing 10 mpg, that had to sting.



Recruited scholarship returnees at Duke:

2021-22: 4 (I hope!)
2020-21: 4
2019-20: 6
2018-19: 6
2017-18: 5
2016-17: 6

So, while I may be going out on a limb suggesting that recent memory should go back at least a year, only four returnees seems pretty slim.



By my count, since and including the 2010 high school class, Duke has successfully recruited 17 four star recruits (according to ESPN's star system). Only 8 made it to be a junior or senior:

2 (maybe 3 after next season) blew up early and went to the NBA before their junior season (Cassius Stanley and Luke Kennard; I expect Mark Williams to be in this bucket, as well, hopefully not before the end of his sophomore season).

6 transferred before the start of their junior year (Alex Murphy, Michael Gbinije, Semi Ojeleye, Jordan Tucker, Jaemyn Brakefield, Henry Coleman)

3 got 20+ minutes as sophomores and then stayed and did the same as juniors and seniors (Quinn Cook, Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones)

5 played fewer than 15 mpg as sophomores (Josh Hairston, Marshall Plumlee, Javin DeLaurier, Alex O'Connell (transferred after junior season, largely due to a lack of playing time), Joey Baker); of those, only one (1) ever played more than 20 mpg at Duke (Marshall Plumlee, and only in his senior year).

So, obviously there's gray area here, but since Henry wasn't going to see 20+ mpg as a sophomore, I think you'd lose your bet.



I fail to see how that's in any way relevant to this discussion or your earlier comment. You said if Henry was patient you could "virtually guarantee he would have gotten his shot as a junior and senior." You then used Quinn Cook and Nolan Smith as examples supposedly supporting your statement. I pointed out that neither Quinn nor Nolan had to be patient; they were starters and got 20+ mpg as sophomores, so their example won't help Henry's case. You responded with the above.

The guys that made it to be juniors or seniors at Duke still got the opportunity for minutes which was my point. If they didn’t produce enough for greater than 20 minutes per game which looks to be the statistic you’re defining as “significant minutes”, that’s a result of their poor or inefficient play (DeLaurier, O’Connell, Baker, etc.) but those guys have been or were offered virtually every opportunity to show their skills. I stand by my point that Henry would have eventually been given his time to shine in a Duke uniform. It would then be up to him how well he played to earn significant minutes and impress upon the coaching staff he deserves to be on the court as it is with everyone. If anyone wearing a Duke uniform whether it be a freshman or senior or 3 star or 5 star recruit is given an opportunity to play and stinks it up, they won’t play. If they excel, they will. It’s pretty simple. What if John stinks next year? Think he’ll play a lot?

[CoachJ10]

Brake and Henry (and even the other JJ) would have felt about leaving Duke if they had played in a raucous Cameron with 9,314 fans cheering “GTHC, GTH”.

Unfortunately for these kids, they just didn’t get the Duke experience they thought they’d be getting.

[CameronDuke]

Brake and Henry (and even the other JJ) would have felt about leaving Duke if they had played in a raucous Cameron with 9,314 fans cheering “GTHC, GTH”.

Unfortunately for these kids, they just didn’t get the Duke experience they thought they’d be getting.

The way things are going with the coronavirus in this country, I’m not sure the experience Henry will get at VCU next year with fan interaction at the Siegel Center should he land there will be much different than what he experienced at Cameron in 2020-2021 ...

[SkyBrickey]

I think most of our teams would resemble our 2020-21 team, with the occasional (maybe once in four or five years) team that could make the Elite Eight.

You aren’t giving our coaching staff much credit if you think that’s the best we could do with a roster filled with #20-60 talent including half juniors/seniors. 90%+ of D1 programs would love to upgrade to that level of talent.

[Kedsy]

You aren’t giving our coaching staff much credit if you think that’s the best we could do with a roster filled with #20-60 talent including half juniors/seniors. 90%+ of D1 programs would love to upgrade to that level of talent.

Except I don't think that's what we would have. Players who don't play big minutes as a freshman/sophomore would still transfer. Players who blew up into stardom would still leave for the NBA.

I would have thought the lesson of 2021 (5 recruits ranked from #20 to #60, with a good chance that none of them will get as far as being a junior at Duke) would sufficiently illustrate the fallacy of your suggested approach.

[jimmymax]

Be careful with such outlandish ideas or against the grain thinking, especially in this thread, or you may get a stern talkin’ to ... even though I think you’re joking!

You're right -- not until junior year -- when it's clear they came to Duke for a degree. You know, STUDENT-athlete, like the NCAA preaches. Someone has to take initiative to fix the system, even if it's in a symbolic, petty manner.

[Bluedog]

Except I don't think that's what we would have. Players who don't play big minutes as a freshman/sophomore would still transfer. Players who blew up into stardom would still leave for the NBA.

I would have thought the lesson of 2021 (5 recruits ranked from #20 to #60, with a good chance that none of them will get as far as being a junior at Duke) would sufficiently illustrate the fallacy of your suggested approach.

One could argue that the fact we have a great recruiting class coming in (which we often do) has pushed some of the guys to transfer who otherwise might stick around if we were only bringing in similarly ranked recruits. At least, that’s the argument. We’ve never seen that play out consistently at Duke in recent years, so impossible to know for sure.

[VA_BDevil]

Brake and Henry (and even the other JJ) would have felt about leaving Duke if they had played in a raucous Cameron with 9,314 fans cheering “GTHC, GTH”.

Unfortunately for these kids, they just didn’t get the Duke experience they thought they’d be getting.

I think that's a good point. It's a part of what separates the Duke experience from most others.

[tommy]

Brake and Henry (and even the other JJ) would have felt about leaving Duke if they had played in a raucous Cameron with 9,314 fans cheering “GTHC, GTH”.

Unfortunately for these kids, they just didn’t get the Duke experience they thought they’d be getting.

Sad to say but I don't think it would've made a dern bit of difference. Those types of experiences which might have great meaning and impact on you or I, apparently are just not part of the calculation for the young guys now. Or at least not much of the calculation. It's about playing time and exposure and doing what you can to prepare for maximizing your basketball opportunities in the future. Those things are, apparently, just much more important than the university, the education, the interactions with peers and professors, setting oneself up for a non-basketball future, or yes, even the thrill of playing in Cameron before the Crazies.

[proelitedota]

Duke should just recruit surefire OADs who are All-American caliber like Banchero as soon as they step on campus and fill out the rest of the roster with the best transfers available.

Raiding the transfer portal has worked great for the Muss Bus over at Nevada/Arkansas and for Chris Beard over at TTU.

Duke can actually use this new change in the college basketball landscape to its benefit due to its incredible prestige, TV exposure and NBA connections through Coach K and staff. If we have a starting spot available, the best transfer at that position will jump at that opportunity immediately.

Lets stop worrying about developing multi-year players. Gen Z'ers are incredibly adaptive and they're used to jumping from place to place anyway. They don't need to have their hand held and experience emotional and personal growth on one campus. Gen Z'ers are used to packing and unpacking their bags.

For you old timers, I know the romance of college basketball is dead - watching a raw Brian Zoubek and Quinn Cook blossom into key upperclassmen on national championship squads...those days are gone.

Lets stop getting attached to these players and start getting attached to our program's goals: winning ACC Regular season titles, winning ACC Tournament titles and winning National Championships.

I actually think Duke is one of the few schools to uniquely take advantage of this as we already deal with roster turnover and changes season in and out. We should use our resources to make a complete roster every year via one and dones, one and transfers, and occasional transfer-in. For the few players that want to stay multi years for the Duke experience like Wendell and Joey, those should be the gravy on top. Don't count on having those types of players.

[tommy]

So not to open another can of worms, but I am wondering: How have certain schools (at least so far) been able to largely or entirely avoid the transfer-out virus? I don't think the 247 transfer portal is 100% up to date, but according to it, Villanova has lost nobody. Gonzaga has lost nobody. Michigan State has lost nobody (they're missing Rocket Watts there). Virginia has lost one guy. Michigan has lost nobody. UCLA has lost nobody. Those are some pretty major programs. Again, maybe that site is wrong but if not, it makes me wonder what those coaches are doing to not make their guys feel they're being recruited over, or overestimate their NBA chances, or whatever other reasons have caused us to hemorrhage players this year.

[Kedsy]

One could argue that the fact we have a great recruiting class coming in (which we often do) has pushed some of the guys to transfer who otherwise might stick around if we were only bringing in similarly ranked recruits. At least, that’s the argument. We’ve never seen that play out consistently at Duke in recent years, so impossible to know for sure.

You could argue that, though I'm not sure how convincing it would be. If you have 10 to 12 recruited scholarship players and you only give rotation minutes to 7 of them, the 3 to 5 guys at the bottom are at risk to transfer. And that risk goes up the better they are. If a guy has to sit for two (or more) years at Duke but could play immediately at another Power 6 school, why wouldn't he transfer?

The guys that made it to be juniors or seniors at Duke still got the opportunity for minutes which was my point. If they didn’t produce enough for greater than 20 minutes per game which looks to be the statistic you’re defining as “significant minutes”, that’s a result of their poor or inefficient play (DeLaurier, O’Connell, Baker, etc.) but those guys have been or were offered virtually every opportunity to show their skills.

I'm not sure I quite understand what "opportunity for minutes" means in this context. It sounds like you're saying that every player on the roster has an equal opportunity for minutes, if only he plays well enough, so nobody should transfer. I imagine Semi Ojeleye, among others, would laugh out loud at this idea. It also seems like you're arguing that since they had opportunity, those who didn't play a lot of minutes by definition squandered their opportunity by not playing well enough, which seems rather circular and self-confirming to me.

I don't agree that guys like Javin DeLaurier, Alex O'Connell, or Joey Baker necessarily displayed "poor or inefficient play." Alex O'Connell, for example, shot 49% from three as a freshman, which seems pretty efficient to me, but only got to play 14 mpg as a sophomore. Javin DeLaurier had an oRating over 120 both his sophomore and junior seasons (also very efficient), and was pretty efficient in his other stats too, including an eFG of 65% and 75% in those seasons, but only got to play 13 mpg as a senior. My guess is those players might disagree that they "were offered virtually every opportunity to show their skills." I also think that Joey Baker and Javin DeLaurier (and probably others) would have thrived in the right non-Duke environment -- how good would Joey be in Villanova's system, for example. Staying at Duke has almost certainly dampened their basketball careers.

The fact is, when you play a short rotation like Coach K does, the guys who don't make the rotation don't have a legitimate opportunity. Saying that all they have to do is outplay the other players on the team seems off-base at a place like Duke which attracts the nations top players. Especially when something happens like the Coleman/John situation.

[GGLC]

So not to open another can of worms, but I am wondering: How have certain schools (at least so far) been able to largely or entirely avoid the transfer-out virus? I don't think the 247 transfer portal is 100% up to date, but according to it, Villanova has lost nobody. Gonzaga has lost nobody. Michigan State has lost nobody (they're missing Rocket Watts there). Virginia has lost one guy. Michigan has lost nobody. UCLA has lost nobody. Those are some pretty major programs. Again, maybe that site is wrong but if not, it makes me wonder what those coaches are doing to not make their guys feel they're being recruited over, or overestimate their NBA chances, or whatever other reasons have caused us to hemorrhage players this year.

This is a great question.

[CameronDuke]

You could argue that, though I'm not sure how convincing it would be. If you have 10 to 12 recruited scholarship players and you only give rotation minutes to 7 of them, the 3 to 5 guys at the bottom are at risk to transfer. And that risk goes up the better they are. If a guy has to sit for two (or more) years at Duke but could play immediately at another Power 6 school, why wouldn't he transfer?



I'm not sure I quite understand what "opportunity for minutes" means in this context. It sounds like you're saying that every player on the roster has an equal opportunity for minutes, if only he plays well enough, so nobody should transfer. I imagine Semi Ojeleye, among others, would laugh out loud at this idea. It also seems like you're arguing that since they had opportunity, those who didn't play a lot of minutes by definition squandered their opportunity by not playing well enough, which seems rather circular and self-confirming to me.

I don't agree that guys like Javin DeLaurier, Alex O'Connell, or Joey Baker necessarily displayed "poor or inefficient play." Alex O'Connell, for example, shot 49% from three as a freshman, which seems pretty efficient to me, but only got to play 14 mpg as a sophomore. Javin DeLaurier had an oRating over 120 both his sophomore and junior seasons (also very efficient), and was pretty efficient in his other stats too, including an eFG of 65% and 75% in those seasons, but only got to play 13 mpg as a senior. My guess is those players might disagree that they "were offered virtually every opportunity to show their skills." I also think that Joey Baker and Javin DeLaurier (and probably others) would have thrived in the right non-Duke environment -- how good would Joey be in Villanova's system, for example. Staying at Duke has almost certainly dampened their basketball careers.

The fact is, when you play a short rotation like Coach K does, the guys who don't make the rotation don't have a legitimate opportunity. Saying that all they have to do is outplay the other players on the team seems off-base at a place like Duke which attracts the nations top players. Especially when something happens like the Coleman/John situation.

Why don’t you understand what opportunity for minutes means? Seems pretty straightforward to me and doesn’t require advanced mental gymnastics to comprehend. Opportunity for minutes means opportunity for minutes. Not a lot of connecting the dots needed there ...

I think you’re misinterpreting what I’m saying if your reading comprehension skills led you to ascertain those conclusions. Of course I realize there will be transfers. Of course I don’t think all players on the roster have an equal shot minutes. Next year, A.J. Griffin has a better shot at minutes than Keenan Worthington. There’s more to getting minutes than offensive efficiency too. O’Connell and DeLaurier were either awful or disinterested on defense at times or fouling machines. Baker has not seemed to put all facets of the game together consistently enough to warrant getting more burn. You think being inconsistent and not a lock down defender would get him more minutes at Villanova? I disagree ...

What does attracting the nation’s top recruits have to do with the fact that guys still need to produce and outplay one another to earn minutes and if it doesn’t happen right away, being patient and waiting for opportunities that typically present themselves?

[Kedsy]

Why don’t you understand what opportunity for minutes means? Seems pretty straightforward to me and doesn’t require advanced mental gymnastics to comprehend. Opportunity for minutes means opportunity for minutes. Not a lot of connecting the dots needed there ...

I think you’re misinterpreting what I’m saying if your reading comprehension skills led you to ascertain those conclusions. Of course I realize there will be transfers. Of course I don’t think all players on the roster have an equal shot minutes. Next year, A.J. Griffin has a better shot at minutes than Keenan Worthington. There’s more to getting minutes than offensive efficiency too. O’Connell and DeLaurier were either awful or disinterested on defense at times or fouling machines. Baker has not seemed to put all facets of the game together consistently enough to warrant getting more burn. You think being inconsistent and not a lock down defender would get him more minutes at Villanova? I disagree ...

What does attracting the nation’s top recruits have to do with the fact that guys still need to produce and outplay one another to earn minutes and if it doesn’t happen right away, being patient and waiting for opportunities that typically present themselves?

What are you even arguing at this point?

Your idea that players should "b[e] patient and wai[t] for opportunities that typically present themselves" is historically inaccurate; the number of Duke players in the last 20+ seasons who played less than 10 mpg as freshmen and sophomores but then went on to play 20+ mpg (or whatever other measure you want) as juniors and/or seniors is a very short one.

But even if it were true, apparently Henry Coleman didn't want to take that risk. You seem to me to be saying that represents some sort of character flaw on Henry's part (though of course that could just be another failure in my "reading comprehension skills"). To the extent that you are saying that, I find it offensive. If that's not what you're saying, then what?

I don't think anybody can blame Henry for transferring after the coaching staff decided to bring in Theo John. I can't believe people were surprised by this, and I don't understand how this could be the basis for anyone's fandom to be less. And while I'm venting about things I don't understand, I don't get how anybody can be anti-OAD and also in favor of bringing Theo John in as a grad-transfer. I don't understand how people think that bringing in recruits solely in the #20 to #60 range could possibly get better results (on a consistent basis) than what we've been doing. I don't understand how people can be against bringing in the best possible players but then get upset when we don't bring in top 10 players and the team isn't as good. I'm flabbergasted that anybody believes players like Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Mason Plumlee, Jason Williams, Carlos Boozer, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams, Shane Battier, Bobby Hurley, Christian Laettner, Grant Hill, Danny Ferry, Johnny Dawkins, etc, etc, etc, would stay around to be seniors (or in most cases, juniors) if they played today. I believe that almost every complaint in almost every DBR thread is really a thinly veiled dissatisfaction that Duke isn't in the Final Four every year like we were in the late 80s/early 90s.

So there.

[Kedsy]

You think being inconsistent and not a lock down defender would get [Baker] more minutes at Villanova? I disagree ...

OK, first of all, if Joey was given consistently high minutes, and wasn't pulled from the game every time he made a mistake, he would almost certainly be a lot more consistent with his shooting. I also think that other than opening this season going 1 for 9 from three (first four games of the 2020-21 season) Joey hasn't even been inconsistent (if you don't count those 9 shots, his career three% is over 38%). If he played on a team that gave him enough minutes to take 6 or 8 three-attempts per game, he'd make close to 40% of them and be a consistent double-digit scorer. I also think that Villanova plays plenty of guys who aren't "lock down defenders" as long as they shoot well enough (in the past three seasons, Villanova's KenPom dRank has been #66, #36, and #81). So, yeah, I think he'd get more minutes at Villanova and I think he'd be pretty good.

[bshrader]

So not to open another can of worms, but I am wondering: How have certain schools (at least so far) been able to largely or entirely avoid the transfer-out virus? I don't think the 247 transfer portal is 100% up to date, but according to it, Villanova has lost nobody. Gonzaga has lost nobody. Michigan State has lost nobody (they're missing Rocket Watts there). Virginia has lost one guy. Michigan has lost nobody. UCLA has lost nobody. Those are some pretty major programs. Again, maybe that site is wrong but if not, it makes me wonder what those coaches are doing to not make their guys feel they're being recruited over, or overestimate their NBA chances, or whatever other reasons have caused us to hemorrhage players this year.

Virginia has lost more than one. They've lost 3 by my count (Morsell to NC State, McKoy to Carolina, Abdur-Rahim to Georgia). And Trey Murphy is testing the draft.

Gonzaga has lost more than none. (Ballo and Zakharov are both in the portal). Suggs has declared for the draft.

Michigan State has lost 4 (Watts, Hoiberg, Kithier, Watts). And Aaron Henry has declared for the draft.

Juzang from UCLA is testing the draft. Michigan lost 2 transfers last year in Bajema and Castleton.

In this current landscape, no one is immune.