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  1. #81
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Princeton, NJ
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    I get the reason for removing the penalty but it cannot be a mainstay.
    But it is a mainstay. The change to allow all players to transfer once without penalty has already been made.

  2. #82
    If thousands of players are entering the transfer portal annually now and Duke is like virtually every other school where transfers are occurring at record paces, can Duke go ahead and scrap the Brotherhood act? Itís becoming comical at this point ... I could see it maybe for alumni that played there in different eras but with the amount of one and dones and transfers Duke is sustaining, itís hard for me to amount the term Brotherhood and all it embodies to current Duke teams during the games I watch and the product that is on the floor, most notably because there isnít enough continuity in team rosters from season to season to achieve any sort of sustained cohesiveness, collectivity, or togetherness ...

  3. #83
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I mentioned in another thread way back when that I didn't expect we'd have all three of Williams/Brakefield/Coleman back next year, and that there was a good chance that 2 of the 3 at least would be gone before the 2022-23 season. I hoped we'd get two seasons out of two of them, but such is the reality of college basketball these days. You simply can't expect top-50 recruits to sit and wait their turn for 2-3 years. If they don't have a clear path to 20+ mpg by at least year 2, the expectation should probably be that they will transfer.

    And honestly? I can't blame them. These are kids who know their window of opportunity in college is limited, and they know they don't HAVE to wait in line to get the exposure and opportunity. Keeping Coleman beyond 2021-22 was already going to be difficult, as who is to say we wouldn't bring in an all new frontcourt? Or that he'd grow tired of seeing his peers at other schools getting PT.

    It stinks, but that's where we are in college basketball. Hopefully Coleman finds the right situation for himself. I'm sad that it isn't at Duke, but c'est la vie.
    These kids all have aspirations to play in the NBA. And you cannot get to the NBA if you can't even get off the bench at Duke. But you can prove yourself at another team (Power 5 or not) and scouts will watch tape all day because EVERY game is televised/streamed.

    Also, I wonder if Ojeleye is having an impact on Duke transfers. Ojeleye didn't get off the bench at Duke. He transferred to a program where he started, then starred, and then got drafted. He was the first Duke transfer in the OAD era to actually make it to the NBA. I wonder if current non-top 25 players see this and say, "welp, I'm not playing next year which means I'm not going to the NBA. But if I transfer, start, and star, I can get drafted." Probably a crazy thought, but makes sense to me.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  4. #84
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Toronto
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieTiger View Post
    If it was so easy to see coming, that begs some questions about what the Duke staff is thinking.

    Like, are they *that* out of touch with their players? (Doubtful)

    Did they just not see Henry as a contributor? (Also doubtful)

    If not those things, then what?

    Two possible ideas I can think of:
    - They knew Henry might transfer *before* this happened. Banchero. Williams, Griffin, Moore and possibly Baldwin all competing for minutes at the 4/5.

    - They are going all in on this year and weíre willing to take the risk of alienating Coleman and harming their long term upside for a guy who raises their floor a bit (theoretically) next year.
    I think the bolded is the most logical way to read this situation. If getting Theo John directly led to the loss of Henry, the staff was making the decision that the increase in value of John>Coleman this year outweighed the added value of Coleman on the squad in 2022-2024.

    Again, a great way to think about things like this is the old "pot odds" poker calculation. Theo John is a more known quantity in terms of what he can bring to the team this season. Henry's contributions this year are more unknown given that, as much as we loved his play, it was in very limited minutes. Projecting out to his junior/senior years becomes even more unknown: yes, he might have developed into the 3/4 year contributor we've all hoped for, but that wasn't a guarantee. There also wasn't the guarantee that he'd be around that long given that a one-time transfer rule without sitting out a year is likely to go into effect soon, regardless of the pandemic.

    Let's do some hypothetical math here (sorry, this is about to get nerdy). Let's posit that Theo's value to the team this year as the primary backup big is certain to be a 10 (a unitless value I just created for sake of the argument) given he's more of a known quantity. Let's posit that there's something like a 75% change Henry's value as the primary backup big would be significantly lower, say a 5, with a 25% chance he develops quickly and approaches John's value at a 10. Theo's "expected value" to the team this year would be a 10, while Henry's would be .75*5+10*.25=6.25.

    Now, obviously Theo's value the subsequent two seasons is 0, since he won't be around. The question then becomes would the expected value of Henry's contributions in those years exceed the deficit this year. If you don't even give him the benefit of the doubt regarding further improvement, then the answer appears to be yes... he'd add 6.25 value in each year, so even one more year of Henry would be more valuable than a single year of Theo. But, what if you add in additional uncertainty about Henry even being around for a junior year, if he say disappoints as a sophomore and/or gets recruited over in the 2022 class? If you give him a 60% chance of being around for a junior year, the expected value of two years of Henry equals the expected value of one year of Theo.

    You can see how these calculations can get complicated quick... to really do this exercise you'd have to increase the likely value of Henry's contributions each year, while also decreasing the likelihood he'd be around to give them or that he'd achieve that improvement. If we knew with 100% certainty Henry would be in a Duke uniform for four years, his value to the program would likely exceed the value of one year of Theo even if he doesn't improve as much as many of us hoped/expected. But we don't know that for sure, any more than we would know for sure how much Henry will improve for this season. Clearly, the staff has made the decision that the value of a known quantity this year exceeds the potential value of Henry over multiple years. We could make this even more complicated by factoring in the team's ceiling to that value (we know it's potentially high this year but have little knowledge of what 2022-23 will bring), the number of years K has left, etc.

    If the staff truly did make this decision knowing that it'd in effect be a "trade", what this exercise tells us is that their analysis of Theo's added value to this year's squad over Henry was probably more than the double I approximated, and/or they had a lower ceiling or more uncertainty on Henry's value down the line. Only time will tell whether that valuation was right or wrong.
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  5. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I mentioned in another thread way back when that I didn't expect we'd have all three of Williams/Brakefield/Coleman back next year, and that there was a good chance that 2 of the 3 at least would be gone before the 2022-23 season. I hoped we'd get two seasons out of two of them, but such is the reality of college basketball these days. You simply can't expect top-50 recruits to sit and wait their turn for 2-3 years. If they don't have a clear path to 20+ mpg by at least year 2, the expectation should probably be that they will transfer.

    And honestly? I can't blame them. These are kids who know their window of opportunity in college is limited, and they know they don't HAVE to wait in line to get the exposure and opportunity. Keeping Coleman beyond 2021-22 was already going to be difficult, as who is to say we wouldn't bring in an all new frontcourt? Or that he'd grow tired of seeing his peers at other schools getting PT.

    It stinks, but that's where we are in college basketball. Hopefully Coleman finds the right situation for himself. I'm sad that it isn't at Duke, but c'est la vie.
    Coleman is likely headed to VCU. You think thatís better for his career, exposure, and opportunity to head there from Duke? What happened to staying the course and earning your minutes?

  6. #86
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    I'm sure I will get flamed for saying this, but Roy was right. The constant transfers/free agency is taking the fun out of it. I guess some coaches see this as a great opportunity but those who perceives themselves as a teacher and relationship builder (like Coach K used to say) must hate this.

  7. #87

    How can elite teams cultivate quality depth anymore?

    If you get elite recruits, then some promising four stars that don't get oodles of PT, it seems like they're gone.


  8. #88
    For the love of God... so much for "he was recruited as a four year player."

  9. #89
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by freshmanjs View Post
    But it is a mainstay. The change to allow all players to transfer once without penalty has already been made.
    https://www.si.com/college/2021/04/1...all-basketball

    Omg. How did I miss this? Players can transfer once in their careers without penalty from here on out?

    Awesome. This means a lot more NBA and a lot less college ball in my life.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    Coleman is likely headed to VCU. You think thatís better for his career, exposure, and opportunity to head there from Duke? What happened to staying the course and earning your minutes?
    It went out the window with the introduction of the new transfer rule.

  11. #91
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    Gotta love the ďI told you soĒ guy! 😉
    Hard to help it after the hostility/criticism directed at people who were predicting a number of departures.

  12. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Steve Wiseman tweeted that "the events of last week played a role."
    hope it was worth it
    Last edited by -jk; 04-20-2021 at 06:49 PM. Reason: fix quote tag

  13. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by bshrader View Post
    It went out the window with the introduction of the new transfer rule.
    Along with having a sack and being grateful for opportunities and fighting your way onto the floor and earning minutes in practice ...

  14. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I trust that the fact that they added John suggests they think he'll be more than a marginal improvement over Coleman. Certainly he'll provide more value in terms of experience, and most likely in terms of performance as well.
    You're probably right, I guess. Obviously, the staff thinks so or they wouldn't have done it, and they're far more expert than I am.

    I admit I've never seen Theo John play (or at least I've never noticed him on the rare occasion I saw a few minutes of Marquette on TV), but his advanced stats aren't particularly good (except for blocks) and Henry's are better (admittedly in a small sample). Plus, from the dreaded eye test, I thought Henry looked pretty good when he got the opportunity (which, to me, backs up the limited sample stats). Alas, nothing any of us can do about it now.

  15. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by 91Duke View Post
    I hate this. Like others have said, I really admired what I saw in Henry Coleman both on and (especially) off the court, and I was excited to see him continue in a Duke uniform. But, I *do* understand that this year is uniquely different in so many ways, and I wish him nothing but the very best.

    Even so, this revolving door of players is giving me whiplash (mixing my metaphors). Not only Duke, but across college basketball.
    What I really hate about this transfer freedom is that there is this media narrative that it's "pro-player". What about the four-year player who would have loved a Duke offer, but didn't get one because we recruited someone more highly rated who transferred right away? We can't just go back in time and send an offer to that kid who really wanted to be a Blue Devil. I know that the NCAA loosened these restrictions because it's a non-monetary way of looking like the good guy, but it's bad for the schools, bad for a lot of kids, and bad for college basketball when everyone transfers right away. Recruits make a decision to sign with a school. If you took that limited resource away from someone else (a scholarship), you shouldn't be able to just toss it aside with no consequences. One year sit-out, no exceptions. Hopefully the NCAA will realize what they've done in short order.

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by Alan_Wilson View Post
    hope it was worth it
    I guess time will tell.
    Last edited by -jk; 04-20-2021 at 06:49 PM. Reason: quote tag

  17. #97
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    No allegiance to college programs anymore like it used to be, not as much of a team game anymore to me as it is what can the program do for me to showcase my skills? That mindset has infiltrated places I never thought it would have: Duke. Look at a guy like Justin Robinson if you want to know what allegiance and staying the course looks like ... guy could have started and showcased his skills at dozens of D1 programs but chose Duke because he wanted to be there ... wish more guys saw their commitments like Justin saw his. Itís a shame because I really liked what Henry stood for as a person ...
    Pretty funny to lament the lack of allegiance to college programs when kids like Coleman get recruited over pretty regularly.

    Coleman worked his tail off this year to earn rotation minutes and develop, and then Duke goes out and recruits a transfer player over him. Why should he show any allegiance at that point? Especially if he can immediately play elsewhere and get more minutes.

    Justin Robinson showed allegiance because Duke showed allegiance to him - offered him a scholarship as a walk on, even though his dad could pay his way easily. And he really only got minutes as a last resort his senior season, so it's not like he felt recruited over. He understood his role coming in; him transferring his sophomore year would be like Keenan Worthington transferring.

    Henry wanted to be at Duke, which is why he chose Duke. But Duke showed they didn't want Henry by bringing in Theo John. It was a short sighted move IMO.

  18. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Huh? The five national champions after 2015 had 19 freshmen on their collective rosters, including at least 9 rotation players. Maybe there were only three starting freshmen (not sure, I didn't check), but there were at least two sixth men as well.
    Yeah, my bad Ė I left out the word "starter". Three total starting freshmen on national title teams after 2015 (and that 3 remains true even if you cheat a little and include one of the projected top seeds from 2020). Only one of the three was OAD.

  19. #99
    Quote Originally Posted by FerryFor50 View Post
    Pretty funny to lament the lack of allegiance to college programs when kids like Coleman get recruited over pretty regularly.

    Coleman worked his tail off this year to earn rotation minutes and develop, and then Duke goes out and recruits a transfer player over him. Why should he show any allegiance at that point? Especially if he can immediately play elsewhere and get more minutes.
    100% agreed. It was a slap in the face imo. Develop the players you have.

  20. #100
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    These kids all have aspirations to play in the NBA. And you cannot get to the NBA if you can't even get off the bench at Duke. But you can prove yourself at another team (Power 5 or not) and scouts will watch tape all day because EVERY game is televised/streamed.

    Also, I wonder if Ojeleye is having an impact on Duke transfers. Ojeleye didn't get off the bench at Duke. He transferred to a program where he started, then starred, and then got drafted. He was the first Duke transfer in the OAD era to actually make it to the NBA. I wonder if current non-top 25 players see this and say, "welp, I'm not playing next year which means I'm not going to the NBA. But if I transfer, start, and star, I can get drafted." Probably a crazy thought, but makes sense to me.
    Yup. If you have pro aspirations (NBA or not) you need to be able to showcase your skills at the college level. If it's clear that's not going to happen because the coaching staff would rather rent a 1 year fringe big over letting you develop, you should *absolutely* go elsewhere.

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