Early 2022 Draft Chatter

[scottdude8]

While this is VERY early, the crew at ESPN just posted their first 2022 mock draft. Interestingly, Jonathan Givony, who from what I understand is very well respected amongst draftniks, has our very own Paolo Banchero going No. 1 overall, over Chet Holmgren. Griffin is at No. 6, and Mark Williams comes in late in the first round at No. 27, with no one in the second round (so it appears Wendell has fallen completely off the NBA radar for the moment and Keels isn't viewed as a surefire OAD).

Given all the hype about Holmgren I found this an interesting data point, and potentially something that should make us more optimistic about next season... teams with two projected Top 10 picks, and three projected first round picks, historically tend to do pretty decently. At the bare minimum it shows that there is likely to be a non-trivial difference in the raw talent level of this year's squad compared to the last two seasons, in which our freshmen were top-tier and NBA quality, but not stars of the caliber that end up first round picks.

Make of this what you will, it is only April after all. But an interesting find nonetheless.

Some interesting Banchero related quotes:

The player who seems to have closed the gap on Holmgren the most in the past few months is Duke-bound big man Paolo Banchero. Having grown to 6-foot-11, 250 pounds, Banchero could step on an NBA floor tomorrow and hold his own physically.

Banchero saw quite a bit of responsibility as a big playmaker with the freedom to push the ball off the defensive glass or initiate in the half court out of pick-and-roll, changing speeds powerfully out of hesitation moves with either hand. He has made marked improvement as a perimeter shooter, looking extremely comfortable making spot-up 3-pointers, pulling up when defenders go under ball screens or even executing difficult step-backs from NBA range. He lives at the free throw line due to his ability to create from the perimeter and punish smaller players inside, and shows terrific touch at the line or converting turnaround jumpers out of the post. He's also a capable passer who can find teammates on the move. Defensively, Banchero has outstanding timing as a drop defender in pick-and-roll, while also being able to rotate and make plays at the rim with verticality and much improved explosiveness.

[CameronDuke]

While this is VERY early, the crew at ESPN just posted their first 2022 mock draft. Interestingly, Jonathan Givony, who from what I understand is very well respected amongst draftniks, has our very own Paolo Banchero going No. 1 overall, over Chet Holmgren. Griffin is at No. 6, and Mark Williams comes in late in the first round at No. 27, with no one in the second round (so it appears Wendell has fallen completely off the NBA radar for the moment and Keels isn't viewed as a surefire OAD).

Given all the hype about Holmgren I found this an interesting data point, and potentially something that should make us more optimistic about next season... teams with two projected Top 10 picks, and three projected first round picks, historically tend to do pretty decently. At the bare minimum it shows that there is likely to be a non-trivial difference in the raw talent level of this year's squad compared to the last two seasons, in which our freshmen were top-tier and NBA quality, but not stars of the caliber that end up first round picks.

Make of this what you will, it is only April after all. But an interesting find nonetheless.

Some interesting Banchero related quotes:

Interesting, is Banchero 6-11, 250 like this NBA Draft analyst stared or 6-9, 235 like the official roster on GoDuke.com lists ...

[gumbomoop]

Thanks to scottdude8 for the scouting quotes. In the admittedly little I’ve seen via videos, I was most upbeat about Banchero’s handle, so I’m most struck by the following: “big playmaker, push the ball, hesitation moves with either hand, ability to create from the perimeter, capable passer.” For me, excellent handle is crucial for superior play by perimeter players. I think of Banchero as mostly a perimeter guy.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Thanks to scottdude8 for the scouting quotes. In the admittedly little I’ve seen via videos, I was most upbeat about Banchero’s handle, so I’m most struck by the following: “big playmaker, push the ball, hesitation moves with either hand, ability to create from the perimeter, capable passer.” For me, excellent handle is crucial for superior play by perimeter players. I think of Banchero as mostly a perimeter guy.

I don't want to burst your bubble, but scouts were saying the exact same thing about Cam Reddish and Jalen Johnson. But neither really showed that level of handle nor playmaking at Duke.

I hope Banchero can, but I'm not banking on it. It's a really tough skill to develop in college, especially when Duke already has a starting PG

[Truth&Justise]

While this is VERY early, the crew at ESPN just posted their first 2022 mock draft. Some interesting Banchero related quotes:

Banchero saw quite a bit of responsibility as a big playmaker with the freedom to push the ball off the defensive glass or initiate in the half court out of pick-and-roll, changing speeds powerfully out of hesitation moves with either hand. He has made marked improvement as a perimeter shooter, looking extremely comfortable making spot-up 3-pointers, pulling up when defenders go under ball screens or even executing difficult step-backs from NBA range. He lives at the free throw line due to his ability to create from the perimeter and punish smaller players inside, and shows terrific touch at the line or converting turnaround jumpers out of the post. He's also a capable passer who can find teammates on the move. Defensively, Banchero has outstanding timing as a drop defender in pick-and-roll, while also being able to rotate and make plays at the rim with verticality and much improved explosiveness.

That's a tantalizing discerption. Reminds me a little of Blake Griffin in his latter years with the Clippers, or Julius Randle now: strong big with enough handle to be a playmaker and has a respectable outside shot. Really excited to see him suit up for Duke!

[DavidBenAkiva]

I don't think people are ready for what Paolo can do at 6'11" and 250. He's so big and has improving athleticism. His handle is very good and bordering on elite for his size/position. A lot of defenders are going to make the mistake of playing off of him due to that size and he'll torch them from deep. His passing and handle are exceptional for his size. He's going to effectively replace Matthew Hurt in the lineup. We can expect that he won't be as good at shooting, but the overall upgrade on offense is going to be immediately apparent. Banchero is a passer. He's a rebounder. He has extremely high basketball IQ. I'm very excited to see him play and be surrounded by the talented roster Duke is going to have around him.

[scottdude8]

Thanks to scottdude8 for the scouting quotes. In the admittedly little I’ve seen via videos, I was most upbeat about Banchero’s handle, so I’m most struck by the following: “big playmaker, push the ball, hesitation moves with either hand, ability to create from the perimeter, capable passer.” For me, excellent handle is crucial for superior play by perimeter players. I think of Banchero as mostly a perimeter guy.

I don't want to burst your bubble, but scouts were saying the exact same thing about Cam Reddish and Jalen Johnson. But neither really showed that level of handle nor playmaking at Duke.

I hope Banchero can, but I'm not banking on it. It's a really tough skill to develop in college, especially when Duke already has a starting PG

I think what's more important isn't his handles relative to running an offense like a traditional point guard, but the ability to grab a rebound and push it in transition. That is something we saw from Jalen when he was at his best in his brief stint in a Duke uniform.

If Paolo is indeed up to 6-11, we're going to have some fun forcing mismatches with him this season. A more traditional, hefty 4 man is going to struggle guarding him on the perimeter if his 3 point shot continues to develop. A "stretch 4" could struggle containing him inside and on the glass. And all of Paolo's strengths should be further highlighted playing alongside Mark who is going to draw attention into the paint.

Also worth noting that if Paolo's perimeter shooting is where Givony says it is, we will be able to put out some solid shooting lineups this season. It's reasonable to expect some level of improvement on that front from Jeremy and Wendell, and both Keels and to a lesser extent Griffin have reputations as solid shooters. A lineup of Roach, Griffin, Wendell/Keels, Paolo and Mark will have three (and potentially four) shooters for opponents to respect, and Mark's presence will make it so the defense has to be sucked into the paint to some degree.

TL;DR: I continue to be bullish on next year's squad

[roywhite]

I don't think people are ready for what Paolo can do at 6'11" and 250. He's so big and has improving athleticism. His handle is very good and bordering on elite for his size/position. A lot of defenders are going to make the mistake of playing off of him due to that size and he'll torch them from deep. His passing and handle are exceptional for his size. He's going to effectively replace Matthew Hurt in the lineup. We can expect that he won't be as good at shooting, but the overall upgrade on offense is going to be immediately apparent. Banchero is a passer. He's a rebounder. He has extremely high basketball IQ. I'm very excited to see him play and be surrounded by the talented roster Duke is going to have around him.

Just based on seeing some videos of Paolo and his club team vs some good competition, the only negative I saw was his difficulty in finishing shots through contact when going to the basket (not Zion-like for sure). Amazing ball handler for his size, and I'm sure his overall game will continue to improve -- so glad he will be coming to Durham in the summer for the adjustment period that the recruiting class of 2020 did not have.

[jimsumner]

Just based on seeing some videos of Paolo and his club team vs some good competition, the only negative I saw was his difficulty in finishing shots through contact when going to the basket (not Zion-like for sure). Amazing ball handler for his size, and I'm sure his overall game will continue to improve -- so glad he will be coming to Durham in the summer for the adjustment period that the recruiting class of 2020 did not have.

So, your complaint on Banchero is that he doesn't play through contact as well as Zion Williamson plan through contact?

That's a first-world problem.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Just based on seeing some videos of Paolo and his club team vs some good competition, the only negative I saw was his difficulty in finishing shots through contact when going to the basket (not Zion-like for sure). Amazing ball handler for his size, and I'm sure his overall game will continue to improve -- so glad he will be coming to Durham in the summer for the adjustment period that the recruiting class of 2020 did not have.

Exactly - I think the summer workouts will be huge for this team. Working out daily with Mark, Theo and Henry should give him plenty of time to work on finishing through contact. Theo and Henry are big guys, and though Mark needs to fill out a bit, he is not skinny and has a ton of length. Similarly, defending Paolo in practice will do wonders for their games. And we have a lot of experience, both at Duke and elsewhere, to give us veteran leadership. Obviously nothing like the senior leadership we had in the old days but a lot more than we've had in a while.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I think what's more important isn't his handles relative to running an offense like a traditional point guard, but the ability to grab a rebound and push it in transition. That is something we saw from Jalen when he was at his best in his brief stint in a Duke uniform.

If Paolo is indeed up to 6-11, we're going to have some fun forcing mismatches with him this season. A more traditional, hefty 4 man is going to struggle guarding him on the perimeter if his 3 point shot continues to develop. A "stretch 4" could struggle containing him inside and on the glass. And all of Paolo's strengths should be further highlighted playing alongside Mark who is going to draw attention into the paint.

Also worth noting that if Paolo's perimeter shooting is where Givony says it is, we will be able to put out some solid shooting lineups this season. It's reasonable to expect some level of improvement on that front from Jeremy and Wendell, and both Keels and to a lesser extent Griffin have reputations as solid shooters. A lineup of Roach, Griffin, Wendell/Keels, Paolo and Mark will have three (and potentially four) shooters for opponents to respect, and Mark's presence will make it so the defense has to be sucked into the paint to some degree.

TL;DR: I continue to be bullish on next year's squad

We got a glimpse of how good the offense could be towards the end of the season when Mark started his glow up. Teams had to pick between being stretched horizontally to defend against Hurt or vertically against Williams. Coaches are going to look at the size of Duke's lineup with Paolo and Mark up front, AJ and Wendell on the wings, and decide that loading up the paint is the way to go. The roster might not be the best shooting team in the country, but they are going to have some open looks. Move the ball around and we'll get a lot of open shots, from all over the court.

[gumbomoop]

I don't want to burst your bubble, but scouts were saying the exact same thing about Cam Reddish and Jalen Johnson. But neither really showed that level of handle nor playmaking at Duke.

I hope Banchero can, but I'm not banking on it. It's a really tough skill to develop in college, especially when Duke already has a starting PG

Fair disagreement, then. Re Johnson, I think he did in fact display most of those skills, though he lacked relentlessness, strength. Because he departed, I don’t know whether we’d have seen those skills in abundance. But it’s fair to say he was overall a “burst bubble.” Maybe Reddish, too, somewhat, but in his case he played with two overwhelming personalities and an excellent lead guard. And unlike the case with Banchero, scouts did wonder about Reddish’s motor and concentration.

Although Roach is our presumptive PG, I do not expect him to be our only playmaker. I do expect him to be improved, but I don’t expect him to control our offense every time. It’s good to have multiple playmakers on the floor together.

If Banchero’s year at Duke in any way resembles Johnson’s, and if he isn’t a more confident player than Reddish, yes, big burst bubble. But I don’t think Banchero fits the “shiny new object” meme.

[tommy]

Fair disagreement, then. Re Johnson, I think he did in fact display most of those skills, though he lacked relentlessness, strength. Because he departed, I don’t know whether we’d have seen those skills in abundance. But it’s fair to say he was overall a “burst bubble.” Maybe Reddish, too, somewhat, but in his case he played with two overwhelming personalities and an excellent lead guard. And unlike the case with Banchero, scouts did wonder about Reddish’s motor and concentration.

Although Roach is our presumptive PG, I do not expect him to be our only playmaker. I do expect him to be improved, but I don’t expect him to control our offense every time. It’s good to have multiple playmakers on the floor together.

If Banchero’s year at Duke in any way resembles Johnson’s, and if he isn’t a more confident player than Reddish, yes, big burst bubble. But I don’t think Banchero fits the “shiny new object” meme.

If Banchero's year at Duke in any way resembles Johnson's, I'll eat my hat.

[gumbomoop]

If Banchero's year at Duke in any way resembles Johnson's, I'll eat my hat.

Ok. I’ll forward your pointed opinion to fdd, he of the burst bubble hypothesis, a few posts ago.

[CDu]

Fair disagreement, then. Re Johnson, I think he did in fact display most of those skills, though he lacked relentlessness, strength. Because he departed, I don’t know whether we’d have seen those skills in abundance. But it’s fair to say he was overall a “burst bubble.” Maybe Reddish, too, somewhat, but in his case he played with two overwhelming personalities and an excellent lead guard. And unlike the case with Banchero, scouts did wonder about Reddish’s motor and concentration.

Although Roach is our presumptive PG, I do not expect him to be our only playmaker. I do expect him to be improved, but I don’t expect him to control our offense every time. It’s good to have multiple playmakers on the floor together.

If Banchero’s year at Duke in any way resembles Johnson’s, and if he isn’t a more confident player than Reddish, yes, big burst bubble. But I don’t think Banchero fits the “shiny new object” meme.

If Banchero's year at Duke in any way resembles Johnson's, I'll eat my hat.

Yeah, there has been exactly one player we've had who was rated as highly as Banchero (and who was healthy) who wasn't an absolute stud: Reddish. Everyone else in the top-3 of recruiting rankings has been a monster at Duke as a freshman. The expectation should be that Banchero will be a monster.

One could argue that Griffin is the X-factor, as he's somewhere in the 5-10 range. We have usually had great success there as well, but it's a bit less of a given.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yeah, there has been exactly one player we've had who was rated as highly as Banchero (and who was healthy) who wasn't an absolute stud: Reddish. Everyone else in the top-3 of recruiting rankings has been a monster at Duke as a freshman. The expectation should be that Banchero will be a monster.

One could argue that Griffin is the X-factor, as he's somewhere in the 5-10 range. We have usually had great success there as well, but it's a bit less of a given.

This is fair.

My point above is "playmaking" is arguably one of the hardest traits to transition from HS to college after "defense". The number of Duke recruits who had "playmaking" and "defense" listed as strengths (or not called out as weaknesses) and then failed to live up to that hype is pretty high.

I am high on Banchero, but clearly not as high as a lot on this board. #1 pick is a helluva player and potential game changer (Kyrie, Zion).

[Nugget]

What was equally or more encouraging to me in the linked story than discussion of Banchero’s offensive skills was Givony’s praise of his ability to handle pnr coverage on D. Our young bigs have consistently struggled with that the past 5 years, so hopefully it won’t be as big a weakness next year.

[jv001]

I think what's more important isn't his handles relative to running an offense like a traditional point guard, but the ability to grab a rebound and push it in transition. That is something we saw from Jalen when he was at his best in his brief stint in a Duke uniform.



Also worth noting that if Paolo's perimeter shooting is where Givony says it is, we will be able to put out some solid shooting lineups this season. It's reasonable to expect some level of improvement on that front from Jeremy and Wendell, and both Keels and to a lesser extent Griffin have reputations as solid shooters. A lineup of Roach, Griffin, Wendell/Keels, Paolo and Mark will have three (and potentially four) shooters for opponents to respect, and Mark's presence will make it so the defense has to be sucked into the paint to some degree.

TL;DR: I continue to be bullish on next year's squad

Let me first say, I'm bullish on next years squad as well. However I think there's still some question on our outside shooting. We're looking for improvement from Roach and Wendell and we really don't know what to expect from Griffin when it comes to hitting 3s. I'm on the positive side when it comes to Palolo and Keels but that's from seeing reports saying both are good shooters. I don't know if the same has been said of Griffin. Most of what I've heard is he's a good penetrator with decent handle. One thing this team has going for it, is that they should have a preseason that last years team didn't have.

GoDuke!

[CDu]

Let me first say, I'm bullish on next years squad as well. However I think there's still some question on our outside shooting. We're looking for improvement from Roach and Wendell and we really don't know what to expect from Griffin when it comes to hitting 3s. I'm on the positive side when it comes to Palolo and Keels but that's from seeing reports saying both are good shooters. I don't know if the same has been said of Griffin. Most of what I've heard is he's a good penetrator with decent handle. One thing this team has going for it, is that they should have a preseason that last years team didn't have.

GoDuke!

Griffin is considered to be a comparable shooter to Keels, and better than Banchero. Banchero is a very good shooter for his size, but that's not what makes him a great recruit. Griffin is considered to be pretty multifaceted, able to score at all three levels and impact the game defensively with his size, athleticisim, and tenacity.

I'd expect Griffin and Keels to each shoot a pretty good percentage on 3s next year, and I'm hopeful the same is true of Roach. I'd expect Banchero to be okay from 3 but moreso in the sense of "he's a good shooter for a big guy." Moore is the big unknown. As has been said many times before, FT% is a good indicator for 3pt%. So hopefully between that and the ~10% improvement he made from freshman to sophomore year portends that he'll be a decent 3pt shooter as a junior.

[jv001]

Griffin is considered to be a comparable shooter to Keels, and better than Banchero. Banchero is a very good shooter for his size, but that's not what makes him a great recruit. Griffin is considered to be pretty multifaceted, able to score at all three levels and impact the game defensively with his size, athleticisim, and tenacity.

I'd expect Griffin and Keels to each shoot a pretty good percentage on 3s next year, and I'm hopeful the same is true of Roach. I'd expect Banchero to be okay from 3 but moreso in the sense of "he's a good shooter for a big guy." Moore is the big unknown. As has been said many times before, FT% is a good indicator for 3pt%. So hopefully between that and the ~10% improvement he made from freshman to sophomore year portends that he'll be a decent 3pt shooter as a junior.

Now, I feel better about our outside shooting. I don't keep up with prospects like I probably should. I didn't know that about Griffin and it's good to hear. If Roach and Wendell can improve their outside shooting, then our outside shooting should be a big improvement over last season. Well, Matthew was a very good outside shooter but it fell off after him. Thanks for the scouting report on our new guys.

GoDuke!