Early 2022 Draft Chatter

[flyingdutchdevil]

Now, I feel better about our outside shooting. I don't keep up with prospects like I probably should. I didn't know that about Griffin and it's good to hear. If Roach and Wendell can improve their outside shooting, then our outside shooting should be a big improvement over last season. Well, Matthew was a very good outside shooter but it fell off after him. Thanks for the scouting report on our new guys.

GoDuke!

Griffin is a good shooter but...

A few things about next year:

-Griffin hasn't played competitive ball since March 2020. He opted out of his HS year. There will be rust. How much rust? No idea, but it will be there. The good news is his father is an assistant coach for the Raptors, which means Griffin should have the resources to practice.
-As CDu mentioned, Moore did increase his 3pt% by ~10%, but is was only 30% during his sophomore year (he shot 21% as a freshman). FT should be indicative of 3pt shooting, but Moore seems to be the exception, not the rule. Can that change for junior Moore? Sure, but there is no guarantee
-It's tough for pure shooters to live up to their HS reputations when it comes to 3pt shooting. Kennard, DJ, Reddish all came in as fantastic - if not the best - 3pt shooters in their HS classes. Their freshman 3pt shooting %s were 32%, 34%, and 33%, respectively. Do I think Keels will be a 40% shooter? No, I'd expect him to be a ~30-35% shooter.
-Roach is an interesting case. Clearly improved his 3pt shooting with Williams in. But with Banchero, John, Williams, and other big bodies, Roach is going to have to really rely on that shot moreso than his HS bread and butter (driving to the rim; open floor scoring). I'm sure Roach will improve, but by how much?

[roywhite]

Now, I feel better about our outside shooting. I don't keep up with prospects like I probably should. I didn't know that about Griffin and it's good to hear. If Roach and Wendell can improve their outside shooting, then our outside shooting should be a big improvement over last season. Well, Matthew was a very good outside shooter but it fell off after him. Thanks for the scouting report on our new guys.

GoDuke!

Let's not forget Joey Baker. He has a great opportunity to be a difference maker with instant offense off the bench.

**sorry, this is not relevant to 2022 draft chatter other than for team performance which could enhance the draft status of some Duke players.

[thedukeman]

Interesting, is Banchero 6-11, 250 like this NBA Draft analyst stared or 6-9, 235 like the official roster on GoDuke.com lists ...

Wow that's kind of a big difference. Would be amazing if he actually is 6'11 lol. I wonder where the analyst got that number.

[CDu]

Now, I feel better about our outside shooting. I don't keep up with prospects like I probably should. I didn't know that about Griffin and it's good to hear. If Roach and Wendell can improve their outside shooting, then our outside shooting should be a big improvement over last season. Well, Matthew was a very good outside shooter but it fell off after him. Thanks for the scouting report on our new guys.

GoDuke!

I don't think we'll have anyone like Hurt next year, but I think we could have a variety of guys in the 35-40% range, and a variety of guys capable of scoring off the dribble. Neither of which was really true this past year.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Bleacher Report has it's way-too-early mock draft for 2022 out. Here's where they have a few notable players:

1. Paolo Banchero
2. Chet Holmgren
3. AJ Griffin
6. Patrick Baldwin, Jr.

[scottdude8]

Bleacher Report has it's way-too-early mock draft for 2022 out. Here's where they have a few notable players:

1. Paolo Banchero
2. Chet Holmgren
3. AJ Griffin
6. Patrick Baldwin, Jr.

If AJ plays like the #3 overall pick this year... man, watch out for this team, with or without PBJ. The discrepancy between how the mock drafts view AJ and that one outlier recruiting ranking that dropped him in the 247 composite is pretty glaring. Let's hope he uses that as motivation to tear up the ACC.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Bleacher Report has it's way-too-early mock draft for 2022 out. Here's where they have a few notable players:

1. Paolo Banchero
2. Chet Holmgren
3. AJ Griffin
6. Patrick Baldwin, Jr.

Griffin sounds like he's built more for the NBA than college: hyper athlete, 3pt shot, defensive beast, insane potential... given his ranking dropping across ESPN and 247 (still top 10 in 247), I wonder if he's significantly less polished than Banchero and co at this point.

I have a good idea of what Keels and Banchero bring to the table. Really curious about Griffin. He could be like RJ with better defense or like Cam Reddish.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Griffin sounds like he's built more for the NBA than college: hyper athlete, 3pt shot, defensive beast, insane potential... given his ranking dropping across ESPN and 247 (still top 10 in 247), I wonder if he's significantly less polished than Banchero and co at this point.

I have a good idea of what Keels and Banchero bring to the table. Really curious about Griffin. He could be like RJ with better defense or like Cam Reddish.

It's really just one recruiting service, ESPN, that has dropped Griffin by more than a couple of spots. Everyone has him in the top 10 but ESPN has him at 27. Even the NBA Draft folks have him in the mid-lottery. It's just one group.

Also, can you think of a player that was drafted in the first round and didn't succeed in college? I suppose Nassir Little comes to mind. He was also an athletic outlier that was displaying a ton of potential before he began playing college. But his shot never showed up and he hasn't firmly established a place in the NBA to date. It's possible Griffin could be like that, but everyone seems to be on the same page that he has ideal physical measurements and tools for basketball and the skills to match. We'll see what he really looks like in November.

[CDu]

Griffin sounds like he's built more for the NBA than college: hyper athlete, 3pt shot, defensive beast, insane potential... given his ranking dropping across ESPN and 247 (still top 10 in 247), I wonder if he's significantly less polished than Banchero and co at this point.

One thing to note is that he has only dropped in ESPN. The drop at 247 was in the 247 Composite, which was a result of the drop at ESPN. I haven't seen any other service drop Griffin's rating. Which is why I think it's probably just wrong.

As for his polish, he's pretty darn skilled and should be really good next year. I think his ballhandling is probably better than his 3pt shot, actually. Though he does appear to be a capable 3pt shooter.

I have a good idea of what Keels and Banchero bring to the table. Really curious about Griffin. He could be like RJ with better defense or like Cam Reddish.

I think Griffin has one thing that Reddish doesn't, and that's NBA-level physicality. Reddish kind of got pushed around as a freshman, and that resulted in turnovers and an inability to finish in traffic. I don't see that being an issue for Griffin given his frame. My only question with Griffin is how well his jumpshot will translate right away, and whether he makes good decisions with his shot selection.

As for Keels, I think there are a wide range of outcomes. He could be Gary Trent Jr redux, or he could have a bit better ability off the dribble, or he could struggle with the 3pt line. Physically speaking, he's also quite solid. But his 7.2 assists per game this year confuse things because everything I've seen from him is a jumpshot (like, no driving, not an above-the-rim guy, not a prolific ballhandler, etc). So I'm actually less sure what Keels will bring next year than I am Griffin.

[tommy]

It's really just one recruiting service, ESPN, that has dropped Griffin by more than a couple of spots. Everyone has him in the top 10 but ESPN has him at 27. Even the NBA Draft folks have him in the mid-lottery. It's just one group.

Also, can you think of a player that was drafted in the first round and didn't succeed in college? I suppose Nassir Little comes to mind. He was also an athletic outlier that was displaying a ton of potential before he began playing college. But his shot never showed up and he hasn't firmly established a place in the NBA to date. It's possible Griffin could be like that, but everyone seems to be on the same page that he has ideal physical measurements and tools for basketball and the skills to match. We'll see what he really looks like in November.

Oh there's lots of guys that underwhelm in college and still get drafted highly based on potential, measurables, etc. Just last year, for example, Jaden McDaniels fits into that category.

But I don't expect Griffin to be one of those guys at all. NBA body, skills, NBA father pedigree, seems by all accounts to have his head screwed on right. I'd be very, very surprised if he isn't a big time college player and a high lottery pick based on what we know to this point.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Oh there's lots of guys that underwhelm in college and still get drafted highly based on potential, measurables, etc. Just last year, for example, Jaden McDaniels fits into that category.

But I don't expect Griffin to be one of those guys at all. NBA body, skills, NBA father pedigree, seems by all accounts to have his head screwed on right. I'd be very, very surprised if he isn't a big time college player and a high lottery pick based on what we know to this point.

Should have prefaced that by saying "can you think of a lottery pick..."

[CDu]

Should have prefaced that by saying "can you think of a lottery pick..."

I think perhaps the best example is Cam Reddish. But yeah, usually the lottery picks were also studs in college. There can at times be a guy who gets drafted purely on potential rather than any evidence of performance, but it's not the norm.

[JasonEvans]

It is worth noting that though no one has seen AJ play for more than a year, it is not like he has been unable to play at all. He has been living with and working out with...

NBA PLAYERS!!

Yup, AJ has spent the pandemic with his dad and the Toronto Raptors in Florida. Now, he has been rehabbing from a knee injury, so it is hard to say how much he has done with the Raptors, but there have been reports that he is working with them some of the time.

A big key for AJ will be staying healthy. A variety of injuries have made it so he has not played a full season of high school basketball since his freshman year. Hopefully, his bad injury luck is a thing of the past.

-Jason "makes you glad Duke has other options -- Moore, Baker, and Keels -- in case AJ gets bit by the injury bug again" Evans