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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    The cumulative assist totals seem really low. At least one of Roach or Moore should be at 4 apg as a minimum. It's hard to see how Duke will be scoring 78 or so points per game without generating more assists. Duke averaged 16.3 apg last year in a historically bad season, without a top-tier point guard. If Roach cannot break 3 mpg, then Duke is in trouble.
    I feel confident Roach will play more than 3 minutes per game.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    I feel confident Roach will play more than 3 minutes per game.
    According to the edit function, I said no such thing.

  3. #23
    Can't see Griffin not averaging double digits in scoring.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    MKE
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    The cumulative assist totals seem really low. At least one of Roach or Moore should be at 4 apg as a minimum. It's hard to see how Duke will be scoring 78 or so points per game without generating more assists. Duke averaged 16.3 apg last year in a historically bad season, without a top-tier point guard. If Roach cannot break 3 apg, then Duke is in trouble.
    The 2016-17 team managed to put up a lot of points without anyone getting more than 3.5 apg (Grayson Allen). But that team had Jayson Tatum and Luke Kennard, who are known to score lots of points.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Looking back on CDu's thread on returning sophomores, one thing that caught my attention was someone's comment regarding Mark Williams and his blocked shots. It was noted how some shot blockers don't recover quick enough to get back into the play and I agree with that concept. This can be an area Mark can improve on this season. He would do well to consider how Bagley and Zion were able to recover. Both of them also were the best at 2nd and 3rd attempts at scoring after they missed a shot around the basket. As for predictions, I'd say with Mark getting more minutes, he'll average 15-17 points and 8-10 rebounds per game. I think Roach will be 10-12 points per game with 3.5 to 4.0 assists per game. The biggest jump in production I think will come from Wendell Moore. I think his numbers will be: 13-14 points per game and have assists in the Roach range. I'm hoping Baker can be confident in his 3 point shooting and shoot 38-40% on his 3 point attempts. As for the newcomers, I don't know what to expect from AJ Griffin. I'm hoping he will be great at getting to the basket and finishing. With his body, strength shouldn't be a problem. As for his perimeter shooting, I have no idea how good he'll be. If his defender sits back and dares him to take the outside shot, can he make enough of them that he'll be able to drive the ball. Someone will have to hit the three pointer so teams will not pack it in against our big front line. I think Moore and Baker will improve their numbers on 3's and Roach looked capable last season. I'm anticipating a great end to the Coach K era.

    GoDuke!

  6. #26
    I expect Paolo to average 18+ ppg. He’s just too good scoring at all three levels. I also expect Baker and/or Keels to provide significant scoring punch probably coming off the bench - both have the potential to really fill it up from 3.

    So I don’t think Mark, AJ, Wendell and Jeremy will all average double figures - not enough shots to go around. I expect Mark will average double figures just based on lobs and cleanup at the rim. AJ is the wildcard unknown. If he is ball dominant and a more efficient scorer than Wendell and Jeremy, then I could see Wendell and Jeremy with similar scoring averages as last year. More than scoring, we will need them running the offense efficiently with high assist to turnover rates, playing great D and knocking down open 3s to prevent any doubling of Paolo or Mark.

    But if AJ is not ready to step up to that second/third scorer role, then we will need more out of Wendell or Jeremy.

  7. #27

    Could Mark Williams be the ACC's Most Improved Player?

    Heat Check had a blog post yesterday looking at Mark Williams and Duke overall, asking the question in the header of this post. It's a good read and gives a nice, sober outside perspective on Mark Williams and the team.

    https://heatcheckcbb.com/duke-basket...proved-player/

    I found this to be incredibly fascinating:

    Last season, Williams was one of 13 freshmen over the past decade who played in at least 15 minutes per game with a Player Efficiency Rating over 30 and a Box Plus/Minus over 9.5. Williams makes elite company on that list with the likes of Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Marvin Bagley, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zach Collins, Jahlil Okafor, Jarrod Sullinger and Vernon Carey.
    That is incredible company for Williams and speaks to the success Duke has had up front in recent years.

    I find that doubly impactful since Williams didn't really put up much in the way of numbers for the first half of the season. It was only the last 8-10 games where he really broke out. In spite of that, he was incredibly productive.

    I was doing a little digging into stats and found a very interesting player comparison, Onyeka Okungwu of USC. Okungwu was drafted #6 overall in the 2020 NBA Draft by the Atlanta Hawks. He had a really good freshman season. Looking at advanced stats for Williams and Okungwu, though, and you get the following:

    Williams advanced stats: 30.2 PER/.648 TS%/.664 eFG%/14.5 OREB%/20.0 DREB%/17.2 TRB%/9.5 AST%/2.2 STL%/9.6 BLK%/13.7 TOV%/20.8 USG%/1.3 OWS/0.6 DWS/1.9 WS/.216 WS per 40/6.0 OBPM/3.7 DBPM/9.7 BPM

    Okungwu advanced stats: 31.1 PER/.645 TS%/.618 eFG%/12.4 OREB%/18.4 DREB%/15.5 TRB%/8.4 AST%/2.3 STL%/9.8 BLK%/13.7 TOV%/23.6 USG%/3.2 OWS/2.1 DWS/5.4 WS/.251 WS per 40/6.7 OBPM/4.9 DBPM/11.6 BPM

    Again, Williams did most of that damage in the equivalent of a third of a normal season. If all he does is replicate that final 8 games, he'll have a hugely impactful year.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Heat Check had a blog post yesterday looking at Mark Williams and Duke overall, asking the question in the header of this post. It's a good read and gives a nice, sober outside perspective on Mark Williams and the team.

    https://heatcheckcbb.com/duke-basket...proved-player/

    I found this to be incredibly fascinating:



    That is incredible company for Williams and speaks to the success Duke has had up front in recent years.

    I find that doubly impactful since Williams didn't really put up much in the way of numbers for the first half of the season. It was only the last 8-10 games where he really broke out. In spite of that, he was incredibly productive.

    I was doing a little digging into stats and found a very interesting player comparison, Onyeka Okungwu of USC. Okungwu was drafted #6 overall in the 2020 NBA Draft by the Atlanta Hawks. He had a really good freshman season. Looking at advanced stats for Williams and Okungwu, though, and you get the following:

    Williams advanced stats: 30.2 PER/.648 TS%/.664 eFG%/14.5 OREB%/20.0 DREB%/17.2 TRB%/9.5 AST%/2.2 STL%/9.6 BLK%/13.7 TOV%/20.8 USG%/1.3 OWS/0.6 DWS/1.9 WS/.216 WS per 40/6.0 OBPM/3.7 DBPM/9.7 BPM

    Okungwu advanced stats: 31.1 PER/.645 TS%/.618 eFG%/12.4 OREB%/18.4 DREB%/15.5 TRB%/8.4 AST%/2.3 STL%/9.8 BLK%/13.7 TOV%/23.6 USG%/3.2 OWS/2.1 DWS/5.4 WS/.251 WS per 40/6.7 OBPM/4.9 DBPM/11.6 BPM

    Again, Williams did most of that damage in the equivalent of a third of a normal season. If all he does is replicate that final 8 games, he'll have a hugely impactful year.
    One thing to note is Williams benefited from having a sharp shooting 4 on the court with him (offensively, not defensively). Williams/Hurt complemented each other perfectly.

    With Banchero, you have a player who is significantly more talented than Hurt (and, honestly, Williams), but plays both inside and outside. If he plays inside, does that reduce Williams's effectiveness? My guess would be "yes, somewhat". That doesn't mean they can't work well together, it just means Williams isn't likely to have the same offensive effect as he did last year. Defensively? Well, you're coupling an improved Williams and Hurt's replacement, which is like upgrading from spam to prime rib.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    One thing to note is Williams benefited from having a sharp shooting 4 on the court with him (offensively, not defensively). Williams/Hurt complemented each other perfectly.

    With Banchero, you have a player who is significantly more talented than Hurt (and, honestly, Williams), but plays both inside and outside. If he plays inside, does that reduce Williams's effectiveness? My guess would be "yes, somewhat". That doesn't mean they can't work well together, it just means Williams isn't likely to have the same offensive effect as he did last year. Defensively? Well, you're coupling an improved Williams and Hurt's replacement, which is like upgrading from spam to prime rib.
    I am preparing to see a lot of Paolo dumpoffs to Williams. Paolo is the kind of player that "scales well" with others. He complements the skills of others on the court in a way we haven't seen since Zion. I'm not saying he's as good as Zion, but he could have a similar trajectory. The ball-handling skills are elite. Paolo is going to surprise a lot of people when he moves right past them.

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    WA State
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    I am preparing to see a lot of Paolo dumpoffs to Williams. Paolo is the kind of player that "scales well" with others. He complements the skills of others on the court in a way we haven't seen since Zion. I'm not saying he's as good as Zion, but he could have a similar trajectory. The ball-handling skills are elite. Paolo is going to surprise a lot of people when he moves right past them.
    I agree but Williams development will help the guards, too. Early last year, Roach and Steward would penetrate and take tough shots because the defenses could safely collapse on them. With Williams insertion into the starting line-up, that started to change. Now, they'll have a whole preseason as a team to work on penetration and dish, penetration with Williams or Paolo freezing a defender and cleaning up misses, penetrate and kick out, and penetration with a dish to Williams with a kick out to a solid 3pt shooter or dish to a cutter.

    I'm expecting much better ball movement than we've seen lately. The bigs are also solid to good passers which is a huge benefit to the team.

    If, in fantasy land, we could keep these men together for a couple of years, the motion offense they could run would be a thing of beauty. Fast, surgical, deadly.

    Not that I'm a little too enthusiastic about this year's team, but I really really really want the season to start already.

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