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Thread: 2022 starting 5

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    How much can you count on Henry's advanced stats when he only played 95 minutes total, lots of them in garbage time? I'm an agnostic on him, seems like a good future contributor, but I'm not sure how much this year's stats really mean.
    That's a valid question. I don't know. Though, if all those minutes were bunched together in three games (32 mpg) and Henry averaged 7 ppg (on 53% shooting), 9 rpg, 1 apg, 1 spg and 2 bpg, and then had gotten hurt or became ineligible, would your opinion change? It's still just 95 minutes.

    Seems like everyone is super-excited about Mark Williams (or super-scared that he'll bolt for the NBA) based pretty much entirely on the last 168 minutes (6 games) he played. I realize 168 is a larger number than 95, but is it really so much larger that 168 minutes justifies the enthusiasm but 95 doesn't? I guess there's validity to the argument that Mark's minutes came against the opponents' best centers in high-leverage games while Henry's minutes largely came in garbage time (as you point out). So, like I said, I don't know.

    I also assume you read the rest of my post, in which I expressed doubt as to how much Henry will play next year? So it's not like I'm saying his advanced stats justify a starting role or anything close to that. I just said that I thought the stats looked good.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    We don't even know who all has been recruited and committed for 2022.


    PS...if Hurt is on that team, he's got a good shot of being in the rafters.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    We don't even know who all has been recruited and committed for 2022.


    PS...if Hurt is on that team, he's got a good shot of being in the rafters.
    Are you serious?

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Bay Area Duke Fan View Post
    Are you serious?
    He'd be a senior. With all of his stats and only two years under his belt so far, I'm very serious. Why would you be surprised? (Note that my post is making fun of the thread title, which is full year down the road, not next season.)
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    That's a valid question. I don't know. Though, if all those minutes were bunched together in three games (32 mpg) and Henry averaged 7 ppg (on 53% shooting), 9 rpg, 1 apg, 1 spg and 2 bpg, and then had gotten hurt or became ineligible, would your opinion change? It's still just 95 minutes.

    Seems like everyone is super-excited about Mark Williams (or super-scared that he'll bolt for the NBA) based pretty much entirely on the last 168 minutes (6 games) he played. I realize 168 is a larger number than 95, but is it really so much larger that 168 minutes justifies the enthusiasm but 95 doesn't? I guess you could justify Mark's minutes as against the opponents' best centers in high-leverage games while Henry's minutes largely came in garbage time. So, like I said, I don't know.

    I also assume you read the rest of my post, in which I expressed doubt as to how much Henry will play next year? So it's not like I'm saying his advanced stats justify a starting role or anything close to that. I just said that I thought the stats looked good.
    I would say one thing here, along with the acknowledgement that you and I agree that expectations for Coleman should probably be low next year.

    It isn’t just the last 6 games. It is really the last 10 games, in which Williams averaged 13 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game over 240 total minutes. That shifts to saying that roughly 1/3 of the season was pretty good, rather than 1/9. Williams was of course better over his last 6, but the 3 games prior to the UVa game were quite solid: 10 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.0 blocks in 21.7 mpg. The 7 minute outing against brings the per-game numbers over those 4 to 18.0 mpg, 7.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks. But really it seems like that UVa game is a blip in what was a really strong finish to the season, getting ~20+ mpg and scoring at least 8 points every time out.

    As for translating Coleman’s rate up to more minutes, it is hard to say. 17 of his 26 rebounds, 4 of his 6 blocks, and all 3 of his steals happened in blowout games. They still happened, of course, but it is hard to say if they would hold up over more minutes. My guess is that they would mostly hold up over backup minutes, but probably not over starter’s minutes. But that is just a guess.

    But, it probably is moot because he isn’t likely to play huge minutes next year if at least one of Hurt or Williams stays.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    He'd be a senior. With all of his stats and only two years under his belt so far, I'm very serious. Why would you be surprised? (Note that my post is making fun of the thread title, which is full year down the road, not next season.)
    Eh, making it four years doesn't get your lingerie retired (to misquote Bill Raftery).

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Watching carolina Go To HELL!
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    He'd be a senior. With all of his stats and only two years under his belt so far, I'm very serious. Why would you be surprised? (Note that my post is making fun of the thread title, which is full year down the road, not next season.)
    I think the 2022 talks about next spring, the bulk of the season, rather than the fall of 2022. But I agree, next season is the 2021/2022 season and should have been labeled as such in this thread!
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

    Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
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  8. #28
    Not sure where to put this - and maybe its been noted in another thread but it appears Henry is staying per Nolan

    https://twitter.com/NdotSmitty/statu...66878701088768

  9. #29
    I've never been worried about Williams leaving (just saying). Hurt; different story. That being said, if Hurt comes back I see Williams coming off the bench for Hurt/Banchero to continue development on what was a great first year. My bigger concerns are at the guard positions, because I'm not huge on Wendell Moore (due to inconsistent play) and I'm not seeing the benefit at giving him time at the point next season...is it because we need relief for Roach, is it because Moore is versatile (because I do believe he is, yet inconsistent), or because we're expecting less minutes for Moore at the 3? If Wendell has a breakout season then great, but he's the X Factor.


    Banchero
    Hurt (if returning)
    Griffin
    Moore/Keels
    Roach

    Williams (if Hurt leaves)
    Banchero
    Griffin
    Moore/Keels
    Roach

  10. #30
    I can't see Wendell Moore starting at shooting guard unless his handles and 3 point shooting have improved dramatically. If Keels shows that he can guard his man on the other end and knock down some 3s, he's my starting shooting guard with Wendell bringing a tough defensive presence and energy off the bench. As good as our post players should be, I want shooters on the perimeter to make that offense potent from all levels.

  11. #31
    Assuming no Hurt or PB:

    Mark 5
    Paolo 4
    AJ 3
    Trevor 2
    Jeremy 1

    First off bench: Wendell, then Henry, then Joey

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Roxboro, NC
    I’d be willing to bet a pie that Keels doesn’t start over Moore.

    I get that Moore isn’t ideal at the sg position but he plays good defense and is a decent ball handler. Keels seems like the first shooter off the bench to me.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by nocilla View Post
    I’d be willing to bet a pie that Keels doesn’t start over Moore.

    I get that Moore isn’t ideal at the sg position but he plays good defense and is a decent ball handler. Keels seems like the first shooter off the bench to me.
    This. I'm nervous about Keels's defense. Moore is the best wing defender from that group. Given the offensive firepower, he's gotta start.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Nashville
    If I was a betting person, I'd join the pie bet, saying that Moore starts over Keels. Moore has 2 years of ACC experience, and he's ready to contribute in so many ways that a freshman probably isn't. That's especially valuable given that we have 2 other freshmen who are locks to start in Banchero and Griffin, and we'll need to mix in some leadership, toughness and defense with what looks like a pretty good offensive group. Keels will really have to exceed expectations to start over what we know we get from Wendell.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by nocilla View Post
    I’d be willing to bet a pie that Keels doesn’t start over Moore.

    I get that Moore isn’t ideal at the sg position but he plays good defense and is a decent ball handler. Keels seems like the first shooter off the bench to me.
    I think this would be a close bet...I see Wendell possibly starting the season as a starter, but he could be replaced at some point depending on his play (sorry but it was atrocious at times last season), and based on development of Keels (we just don't know enough yet). To me, if you already have solid big men and rebounding, a more natural shooter is a better fit for the SG position than Wendell. I see Duke establishing an inside presence on teams early, using the lethal combination of Paulo and Mark Williams. As always, opponents will adjust and start "packing it in" on Duke. This is where the ability to shoot the 3 is extremely valuable. You can't pack it in on the bigs if the guards are going to torch you. I know I'm analyzing this from an offensive perspective only, but if Keels can guard his man on the other end, he could eventually be the starting SG.

  16. #36
    I think you all will find that both Moore and Roach will look like different players (in a good way) when they don't feel that they have to carry the offensive load. A lot of those turnovers from both of them came because they felt they had to force something, but now they'll have Griffin and Banchero being the guys who can score when we "need it." Also, it will generally be much easier for the guards since the defenses' attention will be largely focused on stopping Griffin, Banchero, and Williams. It's a lot easier to avoid mistakes when (a) your defender isn't especially pressuring you; and (b) you're not particularly pressuring yourself.

    I think Moore is ideally suited for the 6th man role because he can defend three (and maybe four) positions. If it comes down to him and Keels for the last starting position, it will probably depend on whether Keels is able to grab the role. A guy with his recruiting profile may be more of a 10 to 20 minute man as a freshman. If that's all he can efficiently handle, then Moore may have to start by default.

    That said, as of now the 5th starter (after Roach, Griffin, Banchero, and Williams), may well be someone who's not currently expected to be on the roster, either Hurt or Baldwin or a transfer guard. Though if the "mystery player" is Hurt or Baldwin, then it's possible that Hurt or Williams will come off the bench and we'll still need two backcourt starters (or it's possible we play three bigs, Griffin at SG, and one "true" guard and play zone on D).

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Seems to me that playing time and lineup configurations are likely going to depend a lot on who is able to shoot the ball effectively from the outside. We have lots of unknowns on that. Is AJ Griffin going to be a reliable shooter? If so, playing him at the 2 becomes more realistic. If not, then not. Is Trevor Keels going to be a reliable outside shooter as a freshman? As we've seen, many good high school shooters struggle with the shot in their freshman year. If he's ready to knock down shots as a frosh, that will get him significant minutes at the 2. If not, maybe not. And then Jeremy Roach's shot improving is going to be important too. He's going to get a lot of minutes regardless because we don't have another point guard on the roster, but if he is a threat from the outside that the defense has to respect -- and he really wasn't last year -- that would open up more possibilities for us in terms of who we can have on the floor with him.

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Seems to me that playing time and lineup configurations are likely going to depend a lot on who is able to shoot the ball effectively from the outside. We have lots of unknowns on that. Is AJ Griffin going to be a reliable shooter? If so, playing him at the 2 becomes more realistic. If not, then not. Is Trevor Keels going to be a reliable outside shooter as a freshman? As we've seen, many good high school shooters struggle with the shot in their freshman year. If he's ready to knock down shots as a frosh, that will get him significant minutes at the 2. If not, maybe not. And then Jeremy Roach's shot improving is going to be important too. He's going to get a lot of minutes regardless because we don't have another point guard on the roster, but if he is a threat from the outside that the defense has to respect -- and he really wasn't last year -- that would open up more possibilities for us in terms of who we can have on the floor with him.
    Here's an interesting tidbit: In the ten games in which Mark Williams played more than 15 minutes this season, Jeremy Roach shot 40.0% from three (on 3.0 attempts per game). It's a lot easier to shoot well when someone else's gravity is drawing defenders away from you.

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    With Hurt now going pro as expected, hopefully our starting frontcourt is set: Griffin at SF, Banchero at PF, Williams at C. Really hoping Williams does choose to stay. He has the opportunity for a monster year next year.

    The backcourt looks like Roach and one of Keels/Moore, with the other backing up both at SG and SF. Coleman would be the main backup big at this point, with Griffin or Moore sliding up to PF a fair amount too.

    Hopefully Blakes chooses to come to Duke, as it would allow a bit more bench flexibility. And hopefully we don't see any more negative surprises. But the makings of our rotation appears to be coming together.

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    With Hurt now going pro as expected, hopefully our starting frontcourt is set: Griffin at SF, Banchero at PF, Williams at C. Really hoping Williams does choose to stay. He has the opportunity for a monster year next year.

    The backcourt looks like Roach and one of Keels/Moore, with the other backing up both at SG and SF. Coleman would be the main backup big at this point, with Griffin or Moore sliding up to PF a fair amount too.

    Hopefully Blakes chooses to come to Duke, as it would allow a bit more bench flexibility. And hopefully we don't see any more negative surprises. But the makings of our rotation appears to be coming together.
    Don't forget Baker. As experienced as anyone on the team, and per my prior post, we may need his shooting. If he shoots it better!

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