I know they are big IFS but if Hurt returns one would guess that the starting front line would be Paolo, Williams and Hurt. What about Griffin? Would Baldwin commit if he would be the fourth of fifth big man? I am guessing that he waits to see what happens with Hurt before he would commit to Duke. If Griffin starts at small forward would come off the bench?
Good problems to have
Williams
Banchero
Griffin
Roach
Hurt (Moore)
Hyper athletic. Hyper talented. And as the defense begins to collapse to stop our inside attack, super snipers Keels and Baker show up to reign 3s at a 40% clip.
I agree that Mark Williams (assuming he returns, which I'd guess is more likely than not) will have a big season.
I think CDu's point was if the roster includes Hurt (which he said was unlikely) and Williams and Banchero and Griffin, then either Griffin would have to play SG (which would seem potentially awkward on defense, especially since Hurt or Banchero would be playing SF in this scenario) OR that Griffin would play primarily SF and only two of Hurt/Banchero/Williams would share the court at the same time. In the latter scenario, CDu suggested Hurt and Banchero would start, with Williams coming off the bench (which isn't meant to denigrate Mark, but one of those three would have to be the 6th man in the latter scenario, even though all three of them will probably end up in the NBA). Personally, if I were coaching in the latter scenario, I'd start Banchero and Williams, with Hurt coming off the bench. Which if K agreed may be one reason why Hurt probably won't be coming back.
If Hurt returns it is possible that the starting five is Williams, Banchero, Hurt, Griffin, and Roach. I suspect that a 2-3 zone could be the defense of choice. The back line would be quite long. We wouldn’t have to worry about the pick and roll or teams throwing over the top of the zone for dunks with Williams patrolling.
On offense other teams are going to find that matching up with Hurt and Banchero will be difficult and very likely Griffin will be able to shoot over his defender. I would hope we pick up another guard to give us the option of going small. Someone besides Roach to guard a quick guard and give us press breaking options would be helpful.
Kedsy summarized it quite well.
I think very highly of Williams, and think he will have a fantastic year. But in the unlikely event that Hurt returns, I think it is quite conceivable we could have an NBA-level big coming off the bench. Coach K has not gone with 3 starting bigs in a VERY long time. He might still do it, as our 3 bigs in that scenario would undoubtedly be among our best 5. In that scenario, Griffin would probably play SG with one of Roach or Moore at PG. That was the first scenario I mentioned. But, given the era and potential concerns about getting exposed defensively or needing more shooting to space the floor, he might also decide to only starry two bigs. In that scenario, I would expect Williams to be the one coming off the bench behind our 1st Team All-ACC junior Hurt and our likely top-5 pick Banchero. In this scenario, Williams would still likely get 25+ minutes per game as all 3 would play a lot, and all 3 would have monster years. But someone would have to be the reserve.
I didn’t specify which of the two scenarios would play out. If we stick to man defense, the first scenario seems unlikely to work well as I don’t see either Hurt or Banchero defending wings well. If we go 2-3 zone, that 3-big scenario gets much more feasible.
That being said, I also said I would be surprised if two of Hurt, Williams, and Baldwin at Duke next year. So I suspect the discussion will end up being moot. I suspect Hurt will go pro, but if he does stay I could imagine Williams deciding to go pro. Hopefully I am wrong about the last sentence. I would love it if both Williams and Hurt join Banchero in what would almost certainly be the best set of bigs nationally.
Williams
Banchero
Griffin
Keels
Roach
As long as Jeremy can run the show and distribute, I like this 5. High/low action with Paulo and big Mark, Griffin slashing and hitting the boards. Also should have a nice inside out flow from the post to shooters on the 3 point line.
I expect Moore will start at the beginning of the season. From there, we'll see. I am hoping for a breakout from both Roach and Moore, which would make this one of the more consistent starting lineups we've seen in the past few years. If Moore, in particular, doesn't improve or regresses, Keels could press him for that starting spot by the middle of the season.
A few other thoughts, in no particular order.
I like the defensive versatility of Griffin and Moore. That's a big pair of wings that can both pressure the passing lanes and make life hard for shooters on closeouts.
Williams and Banchero is an exciting frontcourt pairing, on both offense and defense. Williams can space the floor vertically and has shown signs of being a good high-post passer as well as a mid-range jump shooter. Banchero looks like he could be a three-level scorer that can also play above the rim. Few teams in the college game will be able to match their length and athleticism.
It will be nice to have Keels and Baker off the bench to provide shooting.
Coleman is an interesting big to pair with either Williams or Banchero. My hope for him has been that he'll be a defensive contributor before he provides much offense. In an ideal world, he becomes a player that can switch 1-5 and just makes life hell for the oppositing offense. That might be a couple years away. If all he does is gobble up rebounds and provide help defense, he could be a great 10-20 MPG contributor off the bench. If he discovers an offensive game with a mid-range jump shot or post moves, he'll be extremely valuable.
We have yet to learn who will wind up being on the final roster. Hurt is one in question as is Williams, although I think to a lesser degree. There is room and need for a playmaking PG, unless an improved Roach or Moore make big strides in that regard. It's hard to know if the academics are there for any as yet uncommitted recruits are concerned. I was very impressed with TY TY from the one time I saw him play. A more likely source would be through the transfer portal. Another question that will be answered fairly soon is how many scholarship players will coach K wish to see on the roster this coming season? Are there to be 11 or more? Those questions will need to be answered before coming up with a starting roster, the 6th and 7th men, etc.
I really like Henry's game. I like his per 40 and advanced stats, and I like that he seems to be the kind of player who contributes more to winning than his stats would suggest.
But I'll also be surprised if he plays more than 10 mpg. By the end of the season, as the 8th man in a 7-man rotation, he might not play much at all. In big games K might decide to slide AJ or Wendell to PF when Paolo or Mark sit, in order to get more shooting (Joey or Trevor) into the game, it's what he's done in almost every season in which he's had the opportunity (see, e.g., Justise Winslow, Brandon Ingram, Jayson Tatum, etc., all moving from wing to PF as the season progressed). If Henry approaches 20mpg, it will either be because he took a huuuuuge freshman to sophomore jump (which would be great!), or because something else went terribly wrong (not so great).
And if Hurt stays or Baldwin chooses Duke, or even if we get a high-level transfer guard (assuming nobody else leaves), then as the 9th man in an 7-man rotation, Henry's minutes will of course be limited. Though his shooting form looked pretty good the few times we saw it; if he can reach the point where his three-point shooting becomes a strength, then maybe he could bypass Joey Baker in the pecking order.
If we have 4 big guys who are completely ready to start (and maybe 8 or 9 guys overall who are playing like starters), then I’d say we’re ready to compete for championships. Who exactly starts? I assume that fluctuates.
If we have 5 starters who are clearly better than the handful of guys who can hold it together on a good day, we’re looking at a narrow margin of error. I guess we’ll be fine if we don’t see Hurt, Williams, or Baldwin on the court, but I hope we don’t have any injuries, foul trouble, underperformance, or defections.
Ok, but how many minutes would each guy get?
Everything you've said is 100% true, but it leaves out another key element of Coach K's strategy: he tends to find a way to get his most talented group onto the floor. IF Hurt returns (which I grow less pessimistic about as each day passes, especially considering the recent deluge of draft announcements... but it's still more likely than not he goes pro), our most talented group would be more than likely be Roach, Griffin, Hurt, Banchero, and Williams. I have a hunch K would find a way to make that work, likely with a 2-3. Honestly, given Griffin's size and length he would fit pretty darn well atop that zone, as would Mark in the middle... but I won't start fantasizing about that at the risk of jinxing things.
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Not always...
I look to the 2015 team. The most talented group was Cook, Jones, Winslow, Okafor, and Jefferson. And Coach K tried that line-up for a while, until he realized that subbing out Jefferson for Matt Jones and allowing Winslow to play the 4 made a ton more sense and made the team so much stronger.
If Hurt, Williams, and Banchero are all here next year (and, like you said, I'm not discounting that possibility), I would expect the vast majority of the season to see one of those three (okay, one of Hurt/Williams) come off the bench and play substantial minutes. A zone makes sense, but I'd assume Hurt's athleticism (or lack thereof) will hurt him and his team.
I'm going to be the contrarian and say Coach K will go with Roach, [transfer here], Griffin, Hurt, and Banchero with Williams coming on for either Hurt/Williams a lot. I think the line up that makes the most sense is Roach, [transfer here], Griffin, Banchero, and Williams.
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