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  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    While this may be the case, I'd be shocked if there weren't more transfers per year during the OAD period than before the OAD period at Duke.
    If I recall from another of Kedsy's posts, prepare to be shocked. Our transfer rate has been pretty darn close over the decades.

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    If I recall from another of Kedsy's posts, prepare to be shocked. Our transfer rate has been pretty darn close over the decades.
    Our transfers feel personal, because they are ours.

    But look at the long list of ACC transfers from this year alone. It's happening everywhere. And I know we may have more defections to come, but over all I feel Duke doesn't lose a disproportionate number of players as a whole.

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    We've never really NOT recruited that type of player though.

    As you note, Brakefield was one of 5 players in the "3-4 year" mold that we brought in this past year: Roach, Steward, Williams, Brakefield, Coleman

    In the 2019 class, we brought in Moore and Stanley.
    I agree generally with your point, but are you saying that all of Roach, Steward, Williams, Brakefield, Moore, Stanley, and Coleman were all considered/expected to be 3-4 year guys coming in?

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    I agree generally with your point, but are you saying that all of Roach, Steward, Williams, Brakefield, Moore, Stanley, and Coleman were all considered/expected to be 3-4 year guys coming in?
    Yeah. I don't think any of those guys were one-and-done types coming in. Could some of them go after 2? Sure. But I don't think it's feasible to predict a delineation between a "2-year" type and a "3-4 year type" as that's such a murky area.

    But even if you wanted to pull a guy out as "in between a one-and-done and a 3-4 year type", the point still holds. And honestly, I can't think of a player that I'd have said with confidence was a 2-year (or less) type from this class besides Jalen Johnson (one-and-done).

  5. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Our transfers feel personal, because they are ours.

    But look at the long list of ACC transfers from this year alone. It's happening everywhere. And I know we may have more defections to come, but over all I feel Duke doesn't lose a disproportionate number of players as a whole.
    The question was whether we're seeing more Duke transfers in the one-and-done era than we did prior to the one-and-done era.

    It's also true that we aren't having more transfer woes than the typical D-1 program, but that's a separate question.

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by Furniture View Post
    He has hardly sat on the bench this year and he is only a freshman. Anyway the answer to your question is yes, and letís face it even if he gets to the NBA (and I hope he does) he will most probably spend a lot of time on the bench so you could argue that being at Duke, being part of something big and having a role even coming off the bench is good practice for the NBA. Then being on TV three times a week is much better for your NBA chances vs. not at all and presumably he gets more playing time as every year passes. Where are those kids that transferred out from Duke now?
    Ah you ring up another point but your point is untrue. EVERYONE is on TV nowadays so weíve lost that advantage as well.

    Jaemyn averaged around 12 mins a game. Itís hard to see him average more than that next year. And who knows who Duke will recruit over him his junior year. So he can wait around and see what happens or he can take his destiny in his own hands and go somewhere else. I donít blame him at all.

    To your point about sitting on the bench at Duke and making the NBA, please give an example of someone who did that. I canít see how sitting for 3/4 of a game at Duke could possibly be better than playing 25+ mins a game at Ole Miss if that indeed happens.

  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yeah. I don't think any of those guys were one-and-done types coming in. Could some of them go after 2? Sure. But I don't think it's feasible to predict a delineation between a "2-year" type and a "3-4 year type" as that's such a murky area.

    But even if you wanted to pull a guy out as "in between a one-and-done and a 3-4 year type", the point still holds. And honestly, I can't think of a player that I'd have said with confidence was a 2-year (or less) type from this class besides Jalen Johnson (one-and-done).
    A better question is did those 5 players see themselves as 3-4 year players, and I doubt all of them did/do.

  8. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    Ah you ring up another point but your point is untrue. EVERYONE is on TV nowadays so weíve lost that advantage as well.

    Jaemyn averaged around 12 mins a game. Itís hard to see him average more than that next year. And who knows who Duke will recruit over him his junior year. So he can wait around and see what happens or he can take his destiny in his own hands and go somewhere else. I donít blame him at all.

    To your point about sitting on the bench at Duke and making the NBA, please give an example of someone who did that. I canít see how sitting for 3/4 of a game at Duke could possibly be better than playing 25+ mins a game at Ole Miss if that indeed happens.
    The only obvious example is Miles Plumlee. But he got drafted because he was an absolute freak of an athlete for someone his size. Marshall Plumlee got a sniff of the league because he was 7 feet tall and named Plumlee, and he didn't stick anyway. Aside from that, yeah, the guys from Duke who made real NBA careers were generally guys who played major minutes at Duke, usually no later than their sophomore years.

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    A better question is did those 5 players see themselves as 3-4 year players, and I doubt all of them did/do.
    Oh no doubt. Which is another reason why the idea of recruiting the guys in the 20-70 range as "3-4 year types" is a fool's errand. Some of them won't pan out, some will realize they aren't good enough to start at Duke and transfer, some will get an itchy trigger finger and transfer, and some will view themselves as a one- or 2-and-done and either leave early or transfer when their first year doesn't go as planned.

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Oh no doubt. Which is another reason why the idea of recruiting the guys in the 20-70 range as "3-4 year types" is a fool's errand. Some of them won't pan out, some will realize they aren't good enough to start at Duke and transfer, some will get an itchy trigger finger and transfer, and some will view themselves as a one- or 2-and-done and either leave early or transfer when their first year doesn't go as planned.
    and yet uva and gonzaga, among others, seem to be able to do well with the fool's errand plenty often for it to be classified as such. It's a lot easier for people not to transfer when they aren't recruited over by new hotness every year.

    I'm not saying we should necessarily change our approach, but I also think brakefield isn't transferring out of a program that isn't bringing in the kind of classes duke does most years. It's a lot easier to compete for minutes with the next brakefield than it is with the next zion williamson.
    basketball is back, baby!

  11. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The only obvious example is Miles Plumlee. But he got drafted because he was an absolute freak of an athlete for someone his size. Marshall Plumlee got a sniff of the league because he was 7 feet tall and named Plumlee, and he didn't stick anyway. Aside from that, yeah, the guys from Duke who made real NBA careers were generally guys who played major minutes at Duke, usually no later than their sophomore years.
    Which makes a ton of sense. Unless you're UNC, college programs play their most talented players a lot of minutes. And the NBA drafts talent. And there can only be so much talent on a team or else they transfer/won't commit to your school.

    And that's why Brakefield transferring makes sense. If he wants to play in the NBA (and most Duke scholarship kids do), getting minutes should be your primary objective.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  12. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    While this may be the case, I'd be shocked if there weren't more transfers per year during the OAD period than before the OAD period at Duke.
    Prepare to be at least a little bit shocked.

    Duke transfers in the eleven-year period since 2010-11: 8 (well, 10, but two of them were grad-transfers, which shouldn't really count, especially since one of those grad-transfers was kicked off the team)

    Murphy, Gbinije, Ojeleye, Tucker, O'Connell, Brakefield, D Thornton, Jeter (plus Obi and Sulaimon)

    Duke transfers in the eleven years before 2010-11: 8 (well, 7, but Pocius left the team with a year of eligibility remaining)

    Czyz, King, Boateng, Boykin, Thompson, E Williams, Sweet (plus Pocius)


    Now, if after reading the above you're saying, spin it all you want Kedsy, there are more transfers in the eleven years since 2010-11 than there were in the eleven years before, I'll respond with two points: (1) in a low sample, it's not enough more to make any kind of difference; and (2) even so, it's not more if you take into account that because of OAD we've had more players on Duke's roster in the past 11 years than we did in the 11 years before that.

    Since (and including 2010-11), we've had 52 scholarship players recruited to Duke's roster. If you take 10 out of 52 (including both Obi and Sulaimon), you get 19.2%.

    In the eleven seasons before 2010-11, we only had 38 scholarship players recruited to Duke's roster. If you take 7 out of 38 (not including Pocius), you get 18.4%. Essentially equivalent to the later period. If you make any concessions to my points (e.g., don't count Sulaimon), then we actually had a higher percentage of transfers from 2000 to 2010 than we have from 2011 to 2021 (assuming nobody else transfers this off-season).

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    If I recall from another of Kedsy's posts, prepare to be shocked. Our transfer rate has been pretty darn close over the decades.
    Darn, you stole my line (or since you said it first, I guess I stole yours...)

  13. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Prepare to be at least a little bit shocked.

    Duke transfers in the eleven-year period since 2010-11: 8 (well, 10, but two of them were grad-transfers, which shouldn't really count, especially since one of those grad-transfers was kicked off the team)

    Murphy, Gbinije, Ojeleye, Tucker, O'Connell, Brakefield, D Thornton, Jeter (plus Obi and Sulaimon)

    Duke transfers in the eleven years before 2010-11: 8 (well, 7, but Pocius left the team with a year of eligibility remaining)

    Czyz, King, Boateng, Boykin, Thompson, E Williams, Sweet (plus Pocius)


    Now, if after reading the above you're saying, spin it all you want Kedsy, there are more transfers in the eleven years since 2010-11 than there were in the eleven years before, I'll respond with two points: (1) in a low sample, it's not enough more to make any kind of difference; and (2) even so, it's not more if you take into account that because of OAD we've had more players on Duke's roster in the past 11 years than we did in the 11 years before that.

    Since (and including 2010-11), we've had 52 scholarship players recruited to Duke's roster. If you take 10 out of 52 (including both Obi and Sulaimon), you get 19.2%.

    In the eleven seasons before 2010-11, we only had 38 scholarship players recruited to Duke's roster. If you take 7 out of 38 (not including Pocius), you get 18.4%. Essentially equivalent to the later period. If you make any concessions to my points (e.g., don't count Sulaimon), then we actually had a higher percentage of transfers from 2000 to 2010 than we have from 2011 to 2021 (assuming nobody else transfers this off-season).



    Darn, you stole my line (or since you said it first, I guess I stole yours...)
    I'm conflicted about this, because I would absolutely count Obi and Sulaimon, which would skew your percentages - but also, the sample size is so small, it's nearly impossible to gauge what would qualify as a marked difference.

    11:7 is very different than 8:8. But in this small a pool, it's hard to decipher the data.

    Thanks for the numbers, regardless.

  14. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by fgb View Post
    This is, ironically, probably true, and frustratingly so. I'd assumed from the start that Jaemyn was recruited as the type of 3-4 year player that most of us seem to really, really want on the roster, and it was exciting to me to see the possibility of us beginning to sign more players like that. Coleman would be another, and so is Roach. (As was Williams, but he's getting good quick.) But the downside of the brilliant recruiting run of the past decade or so seems (from an outsider's perspective) to be that often kids who matriculate seem to feel that, they're at Duke, which must mean that they're one-and-done material themselves. Jaemyn seems like the sort of player who, even 20 years ago, would have played sparingly his first two seasons before emerging as a junior.

    I've loved watching the extraordinary talent that has come through the program for the past decade. Unfortunately one downside might be that as a result we've created a perception that if you come here, you're on a fast track to the league, which could be making it more difficult that it is for most schools to attract four year players and for them to maintain that perspective. I love Jaemyn as a player, and will follow his career and wish him well wherever that takes him. Wherever that is, I still think he will at the end of the day play college basketball there as a junior, and possibly even as a senior. And I think he will be excellent. And I'll be sad that that excellence isn't happening in a Duke uni.
    If he wasnít facing a class of 2-4 OADs recruited over the top of him, would he stay and develop into that sort of junior/senior contributor? What if there was another class of 4 guys ranked 20-50 instead? I think Jaemyn would still be here. We might miss the big tourney again next year. But we would be transitioning to a veteran-led roster with an occasional OAD.

    A guy can dream...

  15. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Prepare to be at least a little bit shocked.

    Duke transfers in the eleven-year period since 2010-11: 8 (well, 10, but two of them were grad-transfers, which shouldn't really count, especially since one of those grad-transfers was kicked off the team)

    Murphy, Gbinije, Ojeleye, Tucker, O'Connell, Brakefield, D Thornton, Jeter (plus Obi and Sulaimon)

    Duke transfers in the eleven years before 2010-11: 8 (well, 7, but Pocius left the team with a year of eligibility remaining)

    Czyz, King, Boateng, Boykin, Thompson, E Williams, Sweet (plus Pocius)


    Now, if after reading the above you're saying, spin it all you want Kedsy, there are more transfers in the eleven years since 2010-11 than there were in the eleven years before, I'll respond with two points: (1) in a low sample, it's not enough more to make any kind of difference; and (2) even so, it's not more if you take into account that because of OAD we've had more players on Duke's roster in the past 11 years than we did in the 11 years before that.

    Since (and including 2010-11), we've had 52 scholarship players recruited to Duke's roster. If you take 10 out of 52 (including both Obi and Sulaimon), you get 19.2%.

    In the eleven seasons before 2010-11, we only had 38 scholarship players recruited to Duke's roster. If you take 7 out of 38 (not including Pocius), you get 18.4%. Essentially equivalent to the later period. If you make any concessions to my points (e.g., don't count Sulaimon), then we actually had a higher percentage of transfers from 2000 to 2010 than we have from 2011 to 2021 (assuming nobody else transfers this off-season).



    Darn, you stole my line (or since you said it first, I guess I stole yours...)
    I'm not sure the raw numbers are a fair comparison in a OAD situation, as the pool for players who would transfer is significantly smaller. When scaled for the fact that significantly more players leave early for the NBA, the % of presumed program guys who transfer is some 25-50% higher (whatever the number is) than in the previous decade.

    The number of transfers is the same. the number of players in the pool who would be considered transfer viable has shrung considerably. End result is fewer players even attempting to develop for four years on top of the ones who leave early. Or maybe an alternate way to look at it is, the pool of non-OAD guys is significantly smaller on the team, and therefore any transfer is that much more heightened.

    Now, whether it means the program is doing something wrong, I don't know...but it's something other programs have been able to make work better than we have from a retention standpoint.
    basketball is back, baby!

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    and yet uva and gonzaga, among others, seem to be able to do well with the fool's errand plenty often for it to be classified as such. It's a lot easier for people not to transfer when they aren't recruited over by new hotness every year.

    I'm not saying we should necessarily change our approach, but I also think brakefield isn't transferring out of a program that isn't bringing in the kind of classes duke does most years. It's a lot easier to compete for minutes with the next brakefield than it is with the next zion williamson.
    Serious question - Are you suggesting it was a mistake to bring in Banchero and Griffin for next year - but rather K should have brought in a "4" and a "3" in the 20-70 range so Brakefield would feel he has a shot at significant minutes and stayed?

  17. #97
    Quote Originally Posted by Furniture View Post
    He has hardly sat on the bench this year and he is only a freshman. Anyway the answer to your question is yes, and letís face it even if he gets to the NBA (and I hope he does) he will most probably spend a lot of time on the bench so you could argue that being at Duke, being part of something big and having a role even coming off the bench is good practice for the NBA. Then being on TV three times a week is much better for your NBA chances vs. not at all and presumably he gets more playing time as every year passes. Where are those kids that transferred out from Duke now?
    This is a fanís view. Good players like Brakefield and Baker want to play, not sit, especially as upperclassmen. I donít blame Brake at all. Go get your playing time young man. Good luck!

  18. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Prepare to be at least a little bit shocked.

    Duke transfers in the eleven-year period since 2010-11: 8 (well, 10, but two of them were grad-transfers, which shouldn't really count, especially since one of those grad-transfers was kicked off the team)

    Murphy, Gbinije, Ojeleye, Tucker, O'Connell, Brakefield, D Thornton, Jeter (plus Obi and Sulaimon)

    Duke transfers in the eleven years before 2010-11: 8 (well, 7, but Pocius left the team with a year of eligibility remaining)

    Czyz, King, Boateng, Boykin, Thompson, E Williams, Sweet (plus Pocius)


    Now, if after reading the above you're saying, spin it all you want Kedsy, there are more transfers in the eleven years since 2010-11 than there were in the eleven years before, I'll respond with two points: (1) in a low sample, it's not enough more to make any kind of difference; and (2) even so, it's not more if you take into account that because of OAD we've had more players on Duke's roster in the past 11 years than we did in the 11 years before that.

    Since (and including 2010-11), we've had 52 scholarship players recruited to Duke's roster. If you take 10 out of 52 (including both Obi and Sulaimon), you get 19.2%.

    In the eleven seasons before 2010-11, we only had 38 scholarship players recruited to Duke's roster. If you take 7 out of 38 (not including Pocius), you get 18.4%. Essentially equivalent to the later period. If you make any concessions to my points (e.g., don't count Sulaimon), then we actually had a higher percentage of transfers from 2000 to 2010 than we have from 2011 to 2021 (assuming nobody else transfers this off-season).



    Darn, you stole my line (or since you said it first, I guess I stole yours...)
    I think this is a little disingenuous. Pocius left to play professional basketball in Europe. He didn't "transfer". That's the same as a player leaving for the NBA, except for a crappier league. He wanted to get paid.

    And Obi should absolutely count. He had a year of eligibility left and decided to play at another school. That's called a transfer. ESPN calls it a transfer: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...fer-graduating

    I agree with Sulaimon; that is a unique case.

    So the numbers would be 7:9, which is still lower than I expected.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  19. #99
    This OAD vs no-OAD debate is a nice warm up for if/when Steward tests the NBA draft waters. From a rooting perspective to me it's just not that enjoyable to cheer for a guy for a few months as opposed to four years but I'm old.

  20. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hartford Dukie View Post
    Serious question - Are you suggesting it was a mistake to bring in Banchero and Griffin for next year - but rather K should have brought in a "4" and a "3" in the 20-70 range so Brakefield would feel he has a shot at significant minutes and stayed?
    I guess "I'm not saying we should change our approach" was not clear?
    basketball is back, baby!

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