2021 Offseason Transfers

[DukieTiger]

Until Duke brings in a couple of top 15 Freshmen for the following year

Oh is Duke recruiting players in the 2022 class yet?

A part of me wonders if the Portal is going to replace big recruiting classes for the next year or so until coaches can get back out on the road and scout.

[Bluedog]

Oh is Duke recruiting players in the 2022 class yet?

A part of me wonders if the Portal is going to replace big recruiting classes for the next year or so until coaches can get back out on the road and scout.

Duke has offered zero 2022 players at this point which has to be very rare but as you mentioned, COVID has impacted games, recruiting, visits, etc.

[DukieTiger]

Duke has offered zero 2022 players at this point which has to be very rare but as you mentioned, COVID has impacted games, recruiting, visits, etc.

Yes absolutely. It’s bizarre how little we’ve heard about the 2022 class even compared to other programs though. I attribute it to the Covid factor, but also the looming-retirement factor. I do wonder if getting a couple of guys like Gurley into the program to play 2 years may bring some stability.

[JasonEvans]

Yep and if Baldwin comes our way this year, doubt Gurley plays an important role in 2021-2022.

I doubt Duke will get Gurley if either Baldwin or Hurt are on the roster next year. Just hard to see how he comes to Durham to be the 4th big man and battle Henry Coleman for mop up minutes.

I see Gurley/Baldwin/Hurt as very similar to the Keels/DJ situation. In fact, I can make a pretty good argument that Duke's pursuit of Gurley means we know where we stand with Baldwin and know what Hurt's draft decision will be.

[heyman25]

Devin Askew from Kentucky. Any interest by Duke? A point guard that I read about on Zags Blog.

[Saratoga2]

Baylor's play makes it clear that quality playmaking guards are of great value in the tournament. Roach may make a big step forward but we need at least one playmaking PG either through transfer or as a high school recruit. Ty Ty might be the only one left there who could help us so the transfer route is probably where we can get a player.

[szstark]

Baylor's play makes it clear that quality playmaking guards are of great value in the tournament. Roach may make a big step forward but we need at least one playmaking PG either through transfer or as a high school recruit. Ty Ty might be the only one left there who could help us so the transfer route is probably where we can get a player.

I came to exactly the same conclusion watching the Final Four. We desperately need an experienced point guard who can play defense or our ceiling is the roof.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Baylor's play makes it clear that quality playmaking guards are of great value in the tournament. Roach may make a big step forward but we need at least one playmaking PG either through transfer or as a high school recruit. Ty Ty might be the only one left there who could help us so the transfer route is probably where we can get a player.

There are a ton of ways to win in the NCAA Tournament. Having good guard play is definitely a part of it. But I don't think we should jump to too many conclusions from one Final Four. That was a bad matchup for Gonzaga. When Mitchell and Butler and Teague got the switch and were defended by Timme and Kispert, the Baylor guards got what they wanted. In spite of that, Gonzaga had a higher effective FG% during the game. The Bulldogs shot 62.5% from 2 in the game. The difference was on the boards. Baylor completely dominated the offensive boards. They grabbed nearly 47% of the offensive rebound opportunities. They took 67 field goal attempts, 18 more than Gonzaga. Gonzaga needed a dude like Henry Coleman that could come in and compete on the boards against Baylor but they didn't have it. Timme wasn't up to the task and Kispert was the nominal 4. He wasn't capable of keeping possessions alive for Gonzaga or preventing second and third chances on the defensive end.

Now of course, guard play is critical. But the story of that game was on the boards.

[Duke79UNLV77]

I heard Spatola comment on the radio this morning that over 25% of D1 players have entered the transfer portal. He said if he were hiring a coach the first question he would ask would be about strategy with the portal. As noted above, 8 of the 20 starters in the Final Four were transfers. I understand that we don't as often have clear playing time to offer with top recruits coming in, but we're going to need to figure out how to get impact talent transfers, hopefully now.

[sagegrouse]

I heard Spatola comment on the radio this morning that over 25% of D1 players have entered the transfer portal. He said if he were hiring a coach the first question he would ask would be about strategy with the portal. As noted above, 8 of the 20 starters in the Final Four were transfers. I understand that we don't as often have clear playing time to offer with top recruits coming in, but we're going to need to figure out how to get impact talent transfers, hopefully now.

N.Y. Post story originally, I believe. Also quoting coaches anonymously to say that there's less risk with transfers than with HS recruits.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I heard Spatola comment on the radio this morning that over 25% of D1 players have entered the transfer portal. He said if he were hiring a coach the first question he would ask would be about strategy with the portal. As noted above, 8 of the 20 starters in the Final Four were transfers. I understand that we don't as often have clear playing time to offer with top recruits coming in, but we're going to need to figure out how to get impact talent transfers, hopefully now.

It's bizarre that there is seemingly more stability on an NBA roster these days than there is on a college one.

[Truth&Justise]

Baylor's play makes it clear that quality playmaking guards are of great value in the tournament.

There are a ton of ways to win in the NCAA Tournament. Having good guard play is definitely a part of it. But I don't think we should jump to too many conclusions from one Final Four.

DBA you're right that there are lots of ways to win, but it was a startling shower thought this morning to think of all four final four participants this year relying on talented multi-dimensional guards to get there, and how the prior champion UVA was powered by a four-perimeter attack, and how Villanova beat teams in 2016 and 2018 from in the outside-in...

Only to remember that we're planning to roll into this season with a Williams-Banchero frontcourt and hope to bludgeon teams from the inside.

Not saying we'll flop--a strong front court like that gives a floor well above what 2021 Duke could do--but we might not be able to keep up with the best of the best.

[CDu]

DBA you're right that there are lots of ways to win, but it was a startling shower thought this morning to think of all four final four participants this year relying on talented multi-dimensional guards to get there, and how the prior champion UVA was powered by a four-perimeter attack, and how Villanova beat teams in 2016 and 2018 from in the outside-in...

Only to remember that we're planning to roll into this season with a Williams-Banchero frontcourt and hope to bludgeon teams from the inside.

Not saying we'll flop--a strong front court like that gives a floor well above what 2021 Duke could do--but we might not be able to keep up with the best of the best.

Minor quibble, but UVa played with predominantly two bigs in winning their title in 2019. This year's champ certainly played a 2-big lineup. And the runner-up only had 2 guys who were good perimeter shooters (Kispert and Ayayi), so it isn't like they were overly reliant on guards (their leading scorer was a traditional big). And of course you omitted the 2016 runner up or the 2017 title team from the list (which is fine by me, although they clearly played with two bigs). Heck, the runner up in 2017 was also a two-big team. So I don't think it's some sort of given that you need to have a guard-heavy team to make a deep tourney run.

And it's not like we'll be playing a pair of stiffs. Yes, Williams is a traditional center. But Banchero is a very skilled ballhandler and very capable of attacking from the perimeter. And we'll still have a guy like Griffin playing a fair amount at PF too. And it's not like our guards are going to be garbage next year, either.

I think what we'll look a little like is a potentially better version of this year's USC team. Like USC, our best player will be an uber-talented PF/C. Like USC, we'll not necessarily have a single primary playmaker, but will have a variety of guys (likely 3 or 4 of our starters) who can initiate the offense and create shots. We will not likely shoot the 3 as well as USC, but we should be even more imposing in the paint. But that's the type of model we will likely be next year. And USC was very much underseeded this year. They were easily a top-10 (borderline top-5) team in the country that inexplicably got a 6 seed. And we should have more top-end talent than they did.

[dm9e24]

Upperclassmen and leadership....that is what has been winning NC's lately.

[Truth&Justise]

Well let me respond with some good natured quibbling.

Minor quibble, but UVa played with predominantly two bigs in winning their title in 2019.

They started the season off with the Diakite-Salt combo up front, but by the tournament they sent Salt to the bench and were rolling with a small and mobile Clark-Guy-Jerome-Hunter-Diakite lineup.

This year's champ certainly played a 2-big lineup.

Fair enough. I guess it depends on how you classify Mark Vital. He's 6'5" 250lb. Admittedly he plays like a big, in the relentless Charles Barkley / Draymond Green mold. But he's quicker than a traditional post player. Perhaps he's emblematic of how versatility at the 4 is more valuable than traditional post skills.

And the runner-up only had 2 guys who were good perimeter shooters (Kispert and Ayayi), so it isn't like they were overly reliant on guards (their leading scorer was a traditional big).

I was surprised to see how low Nembhard (32%) and Suggs (34%) shot from 3. But Gonzaga had four starters shooting 3+ 3-pointers per game. That certainly seems like a perimeter-oriented attack to me. And yes, Timme was their leading scorer--there will always be room for a big man, the question is whether you can still make room for two at a time.

And of course you omitted the 2016 runner up or the 2017 title team from the list (which is fine by me, although they clearly played with two bigs).

Heck, the runner up in 2017 was also a two-big team.

Johnathan Williams, at 6'9", shot 40% from three on 1.0 attempts per game. He was big, but he was a threat from the perimeter as well. I'd be thrilled if Banchero could display that same type of outside shooting touch--like Justise Winslow shooting 40% from 3, it really stretches the defense.

So I don't think it's some sort of given that you need to have a guard-heavy team to make a deep tourney run.

And it's not like we'll be playing a pair of stiffs. Yes, Williams is a traditional center. But Banchero is a very skilled ballhandler and very capable of attacking from the perimeter. And we'll still have a guy like Griffin playing a fair amount at PF too. And it's not like our guards are going to be garbage next year, either.

I think what we'll look a little like is a potentially better version of this year's USC team. Like USC, our best player will be an uber-talented PF/C. Like USC, we'll not necessarily have a single primary playmaker, but will have a variety of guys (likely 3 or 4 of our starters) who can initiate the offense and create shots. We will not likely shoot the 3 as well as USC, but we should be even more imposing in the paint. But that's the type of model we will likely be next year. And USC was very much underseeded this year. They were easily a top-10 (borderline top-5) team in the country that inexplicably got a 6 seed. And we should have more top-end talent than they did.

Your point is well taken, and I'm trying to balance my long-term view (that basketball at all level is more perimeter-oriented than ever) with any knee-jerk reactions to a small sample size of final four games. A lot of my shower-thought angst could be allayed by Banchero's versatility, as you mentioned. I will just continually worry about whether we're giving Banchero and Williams the space they need to operate effectively, meaning we'll need all of our perimeter players to earn defenders' attention.

Another way to allay my fears: if we turn into a lock-down defensive team. With Williams as the anchor and lots of size across the board, we have a chance. Griffin and Moore are exactly the kind of big, rangy wings who are crucial to a modern defense. Just hope the freshmen can pick it up quickly and that Roach proves able to handle lead guards.

[GoDuke2015]

Has anyone heard about Wendell Moore? Hopefully he's coming back but haven't heard much from him or Duke.

GoDuke!

[CDu]

Well let me respond with some good natured quibbling.

Always room for quibbling. I'll return the quibbles.

They started the season off with the Diakite-Salt combo up front, but by the tournament they sent Salt to the bench and were rolling with a small and mobile Clark-Guy-Jerome-Hunter-Diakite lineup.

Fair enough. I guess it depends on how you classify Mark Vital. He's 6'5" 250lb. Admittedly he plays like a big, in the relentless Charles Barkley / Draymond Green mold. But he's quicker than a traditional post player. Perhaps he's emblematic of how versatility at the 4 is more valuable than traditional post skills.

Vital is in every way a post player. He is just short. He has no perimeter game at all. He went 0-6 from 3 and and is a career 49.6% FT shooter. One could argue that Mayer fits that bill: despite being 6'9" 225 he did shoot a bunch of 3s. But the majority of the time Baylor had two guys on the floor who were bigs who didn't shoot at all outside of 10-12 feet from the basket.

I was surprised to see how low Nembhard (32%) and Suggs (34%) shot from 3. But Gonzaga had four starters shooting 3+ 3-pointers per game. That certainly seems like a perimeter-oriented attack to me. And yes, Timme was their leading scorer--there will always be room for a big man, the question is whether you can still make room for two at a time.

I think that Baylor showed you clearly can. And I'd add that Banchero isn't some sort of pure low-post big. He's very much comfortable attacking from and shooting from the perimeter. And Williams is quite comfortable passing from the perimeter into a post guy. I'd expect only one of Williams and Banchero to be in the paint at a given time.

Johnathan Williams, at 6'9", shot 40% from three on 1.0 attempts per game. He was big, but he was a threat from the perimeter as well. I'd be thrilled if Banchero could display that same type of outside shooting touch--like Justise Winslow shooting 40% from 3, it really stretches the defense.

I would expect Banchero to hit a comparable number of 3s next year (16) as Williams did that year. While certainly very good with his back to the basket, Banchero is plenty perimeter-oriented offensively. I think perhaps that is what is causing your angst(?).

Another way to allay my fears: if we turn into a lock-down defensive team. With Williams as the anchor and lots of size across the board, we have a chance. Griffin and Moore are exactly the kind of big, rangy wings who are crucial to a modern defense. Just hope the freshmen can pick it up quickly and that Roach proves able to handle lead guards.

Next year's team has some real defensive potential, especially if Roach improves. Griffin is widely considered a defensive menace, and Williams clearly emerged as a shot-changing interior presence. We should also be a better defensive rebounding team with Banchero in place of Hurt, and hopefully that's a win offensively too.

Also worth noting that over our last 10 games we were playing like a top-15 defense. Yes, we lose Goldwire, but we likely also lose Hurt, and get hopefully improvements from year older Williams/Moore/Roach. And we get year-older Coleman instead of freshman Brakefield/Coleman. And I think the Banchero/Griffin/Keels trio is a better defensive group than Hurt/Steward/Goldwire. So I think our defense should be pretty darn good next year. Obviously, there is risk with adding young players. But the returning talent and the relative skill sets of the ins vs the outs suggest we should be good defensively.

[JasonEvans]

Syracuse's Kadary Richmond has picked Seton Hall: https://twitter.com/AdamZagoria/stat...93062821445632

[heyman25]

Devin Askew from Kentucky. Any interest by Duke? A point guard that I read about on Zags Blog.

https://www.zagsblog.com/2021/04/05/...ansfer-portal/

[whereinthehellami]

Banchero played a lot of offense at the top of key as the initiator of his team's offense. While he is not a great 3-pt shooter, he does have the ability to hit shots out there. But he has decent handles, good vision, a good mid-range game, and an even better understanding of initiating/making the right play. I think he is one of those guys where the parts add up to a greater whole deal. Pair that with his size/athletic ability and that is why he is a top 3 HS player.