2021 Offseason Transfers

[scottdude8]

Could it be that our interest in John was spurned by concern that Williams has yet to publicly declare his intentions for next year?

JasonEvans has stated multiple times that his sources have indicated the program is quite confident Williams will be in a Duke uniform next season. His sources have been pretty darn good, so I retain that faith.

Also, I don't think I've seen a single statement from a non-super senior saying "I'm coming back!" anywhere in college basketball. Those tend to come later than the going pro announcements, if at all. So I personally wouldn't read too much into that.

[bshrader]

JasonEvans has stated multiple times that his sources have indicated the program is quite confident Williams will be in a Duke uniform next season. His sources have been pretty darn good, so I retain that faith.

Also, I don't think I've seen a single statement from a non-super senior saying "I'm coming back!" anywhere in college basketball. Those tend to come later than the going pro announcements, if at all. So I personally wouldn't read too much into that.

Also, as JasonEvans as stated, you cannot underestimate the importance of the scrimmages/practices viewpoint and what it means for player progression and improvement.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Also, as JasonEvans as stated, you cannot underestimate the importance of the scrimmages/practices viewpoint and what it means for player progression and improvement.

I don't think John is looking to come to Duke to be a practice player. While it would be fantastic if John came, I'm sure he's expecting to play significant minutes wherever he lands.

Patrick Tape was basically a practice player, and that didn't work out so well for Duke or Tape.

[bshrader]

I don't think John is looking to come to Duke to be a practice player. While it would be fantastic if John came, I'm sure he's expecting to play significant minutes wherever he lands.

Patrick Tape was basically a practice player, and that didn't work out so well for Duke or Tape.

No, I would expect that if John decided to come to Duke it would be with the understanding that he would play role player minutes. Something in the 14-18 range??

[scottdude8]

Also, as JasonEvans as stated, you cannot underestimate the importance of the scrimmages/practices viewpoint and what it means for player progression and improvement.

I don't think John is looking to come to Duke to be a practice player. While it would be fantastic if John came, I'm sure he's expecting to play significant minutes wherever he lands.

Patrick Tape was basically a practice player, and that didn't work out so well for Duke or Tape.

I don't think John will be anywhere near only a "practice player" if he chooses to come to Duke. Right now there is no traditional 5 man to back up Mark on the roster, which would leave us in a situation where Paolo would likely have to shift to the 5 to give Mark a rest. That isn't ideal, especially given Paolo has said he doesn't see himself as a 5. There are at least 10-15 minutes per game available for a backup big who can play both the 4 and the 5.

Looking at John's career, he was a productive player but by no means a star. He didn't average more than 21 mpg until his senior year on a bad (sorry Wojo) Marquette team, and he averaged 8 and 5 in those minutes. If he has the perspective that he wants be a role player on a winning team, that's a great profile for a backup Duke big, and translating from the Big East to the ACC is much less of a jump than Tapé had coming from the Ivy. It all will come down to what he wants: does he want to spend his last year in college basketball as a role player on a winning team or a star on a lesser team? Either are reasonable decisions, it just comes down to what this individual young man wants for the next year of his life.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I don't think John will be anywhere near only a "practice player" if he chooses to come to Duke. Right now there is no traditional 5 man to back up Mark on the roster, which would leave us in a situation where Paolo would likely have to shift to the 5 to give Mark a rest. That isn't ideal, especially given Paolo has said he doesn't see himself as a 5. There are at least 10-15 minutes per game available for a backup big who can play both the 4 and the 5.

Looking at John's career, he was a productive player but by no means a star. He didn't average more than 21 mpg until his senior year on a bad (sorry Wojo) Marquette team, and he averaged 8 and 5 in those minutes. If he has the perspective that he wants be a role player on a winning team, that's a great profile for a backup Duke big, and translating from the Big East to the ACC is much less of a jump than Tapé had coming from the Ivy.

I was responding to the post regarding the importance of practice, not suggesting John would be a practice player.

I understand that John is a solid post player. He played in the Power 6, so he clearly won't be overwhelmed like some non-Power 6 transfers. His advanced stats are really good, and it shows he's an incredible defensive player (which we need).

The one thing that confuses me is Duke has plenty of depth at the 3-5 (assuming Williams stays). Williams, Banchero, Griffin, Coleman, Baker, and Moore are all better suited to play the 3-5 than the 1-2. And some of those pieces, like Moore and Banchero, can play two of the 3-5 positions really well. At the 1-2, we have Roach and Keels (and with Keels big body, he's probably solid at the 3 as well). We need more backcourt depth, and Blakes alone may not cut it.

[bshrader]

I don't think John will be anywhere near only a "practice player" if he chooses to come to Duke. Right now there is no traditional 5 man to back up Mark on the roster, which would leave us in a situation where Paolo would likely have to shift to the 5 to give Mark a rest. That isn't ideal, especially given Paolo has said he doesn't see himself as a 5. There are at least 10-15 minutes per game available for a backup big who can play both the 4 and the 5.

Looking at John's career, he was a productive player but by no means a star. He didn't average more than 21 mpg until his senior year on a bad (sorry Wojo) Marquette team, and he averaged 8 and 5 in those minutes. If he has the perspective that he wants be a role player on a winning team, that's a great profile for a backup Duke big, and translating from the Big East to the ACC is much less of a jump than Tapé had coming from the Ivy. It all will come down to what he wants: does he want to spend his last year in college basketball as a role player on a winning team or a star on a lesser team? Either are reasonable decisions, it just comes down to what this individual young man wants for the next year of his life.

THIS 10000% Percent. You have to keep in mind that these young men in this situation such as John are evaluating this from how this next step helps them to achieve whatever next goal they've set for themselves. Be it a professional career overseas, coaching, etc...What choice helps them achieve that particular goal? Is it a key reserve on a title-contending team? Is it a starter w/ starter minutes on a lesser team? Is it an institution that can offer a particular grad degree? All these factors could potentially weigh in, depending upon what goal he is looking to accomplish.

[CDu]

The one thing that confuses me is Duke has plenty of depth at the 3-5 (assuming Williams stays). Williams, Banchero, Griffin, Coleman, Baker, and Moore are all better suited to play the 3-5 than the 1-2. And some of those pieces, like Moore and Banchero, can play two of the 3-5 positions really well. At the 1-2, we have Roach and Keels (and with Keels big body, he's probably solid at the 3 as well). We need more backcourt depth, and Blakes alone may not cut it.

I suspect that Moore will play like Keels as a 2/3, and Griffin will be the guy playing like a 3/4. So Blakes coming as the backup PG would give us a 2-deep at each spot up through the PF spot. So I could very well see the logic of adding a C and a PG.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I suspect that Moore will play like Keels as a 2/3, and Griffin will be the guy playing like a 3/4. So Blakes coming as the backup PG would give us a 2-deep at each spot up through the PF spot. So I could very well see the logic of adding a C and a PG.

Moore playing the 2 seems like a very poor idea. He's not quick enough and, with Roach at the 1, allows the defense to pack it in given two poorish shooters at the 1-2.

Right now, I think the backcourt is very clearly Roach and Keels.

[DukieTiger]

I suspect that Moore will play like Keels as a 2/3, and Griffin will be the guy playing like a 3/4. So Blakes coming as the backup PG would give us a 2-deep at each spot up through the PF spot. So I could very well see the logic of adding a C and a PG.

Yeah Duke is one injury away from depending on Banchero and Coleman to be rim protectors. If a guy like John is willing to come in and be a backup C, that’s an absolute win.

You want to be able to play small when convenient, not out of necessity. It’s a fine line to walk in the collegiate roster-building game though.

[Neals384]

I don't think John is looking to come to Duke to be a practice player. While it would be fantastic if John came, I'm sure he's expecting to play significant minutes wherever he lands.

Patrick Tape was basically a practice player, and that didn't work out so well for Duke or Tape.

I think Tape was more than a practice player. Not in the regular rotation for sure, but he appeared in 10 games, 5 of them decided by 10 points or less:
Started and played 9 min in a December win over ND
Played 10 minutes in the January loss to Pitt
Had cameo appearances in close games against Lou, Wake, GT.

Not saying he was effective, but he wasn't tied to the bench except in blowouts, which is what I think "practice player" implies.

[CDu]

Moore playing the 2 seems like a very poor idea. He's not quick enough and, with Roach at the 1, allows the defense to pack it in given two poorish shooters at the 1-2.

Right now, I think the backcourt is very clearly Roach and Keels.

I wouldn't completely sleep on Moore at the 2. Nor would I sleep on Roach as a shooter. More on that to come in a separate post.

But suffice to say that I think Moore is very much in play as a SG. His FT shooting and his improvement in 3pt shooting from freshman to sophomore year suggests that he may be able to make a considerable jump next year from 3. Especially as our frontcourt guys draw more and more defensive attention away from him (and from Roach and Keels).

[sagegrouse]

Yeah Duke is one injury away from depending on Banchero and Coleman to be rim protectors. If a guy like John is willing to come in and be a backup C, that’s an absolute win.

You want to be able to play small when convenient, not out of necessity. It’s a fine line to walk in the collegiate roster-building game though.

Well, there is also "fowl trouble," and those chickens will come home to roost -- usually in the second half of important games.

[DukieTiger]

Well, there is also "fowl trouble," and those chickens will come home to roost -- usually in the second half of important games.

If 2004 Duke taught me anything...

[Kedsy]

Kedsy does not approve,so I guess Duke should not take him. Statistics don't lie, right Kedsy.

I strongly suspect that statistics lie a lot less than people's eyes.

Coleman cannot guard the 5, simple as that. This guy can. And he provides a talented body for practice for the other post players to improve and progress.

I don't think it's as simple as that at all. This past season, of what little time he spent on the court, most of it was spent guarding the opposing center.

Also, even if you're correct, for the 10 or so minutes when Mark Williams is off the court, I'm sure Banchero will be more than adequate guarding the opposing center while Coleman guards the opposing PF (if that's what K thinks is best, defensively).

I think he is a decent step up from Henry but not huge, and he could potentially stunt Henry's long term growth by cutting into his PT.

This is what I'm mainly concerned about if John comes to Duke.

Given that we have a lot of empty scholarships, I would generally be happy to add him to the team. If nothing else, we need bodies. I think he will improve our team. I think we have often been missing a veteran guy with some muscle, and he seems to fill that role.

I don't think we need bodies. I don't think we might as well add a guy just because we can. The way K utilizes his rotation, there are at most 10 to 12 minutes available for a backup big. (And CDu is right that based on history some of those minutes will likely be spent with Griffin or Moore playing PF in a small lineup.)

But the biggest issue is we're not playing a video game or fantasy basketball here. This sort of move has consequences beyond the player brought in. The upside here is we'll have a guy who can help in practice, play a few minutes, and might be needed in case of injury or in the possible one or two games where our opponent might have a center that Banchero and Coleman couldn't handle for the time Williams is off the court. The downside is if John gets those minutes, Coleman won't. The two players won't be complementary in any way. If John is on the team and takes the backup big role, Coleman will only play mop up minutes which will at best impede his development and at worst drive him to consider a transfer. He may not want to wait until his junior year to play, and that would be a shame, especially since he has up to four more years of eligibility while John has only one.

If we're going to risk that downside, it should be for a guy who offers a BIG step up. Which is why I brought up the statistics, which show Henry Coleman is a better rebounder than Theo John and is just as good a shotblocker (albeit in a smaller sample). And that's before any freshman-to-sophomore leap that Coleman might have. Frankly, for a big bruiser, Theo John rebounds more like a small forward. In 2020-21, Wendell Moore had a better defensive rebound percentage than John (and almost as good an offensive rebound percentage). YMMV, of course, but to me it seems like a big risk for a small potential payoff. K obviously doesn't consult me, but I hope we don't get him.

[DukieTiger]

I strongly suspect that statistics lie a lot less than people's eyes.



I don't think it's as simple as that at all. This past season, of what little time he spent on the court, most of it was spent guarding the opposing center.

Also, even if you're correct, for the 10 or so minutes when Mark Williams is off the court, I'm sure Banchero will be more than adequate guarding the opposing center while Coleman guards the opposing PF (if that's what K thinks is best, defensively).



This is what I'm mainly concerned about if John comes to Duke.



I don't think we need bodies. I don't think we might as well add a guy just because we can. The way K utilizes his rotation, there are at most 10 to 12 minutes available for a backup big. (And CDu is right that based on history some of those minutes will likely be spent with Griffin or Moore playing PF in a small lineup.)

But the biggest issue is we're not playing a video game or fantasy basketball here. This sort of move has consequences beyond the player brought in. The upside here is we'll have a guy who can help in practice, play a few minutes, and might be needed in case of injury or in the possible one or two games where our opponent might have a center that Banchero and Coleman couldn't handle for the time Williams is off the court. The downside is if John gets those minutes, Coleman won't. The two players won't be complementary in any way. If John is on the team and takes the backup big role, Coleman will only play mop up minutes which will at best impede his development and at worst drive him to consider a transfer. He may not want to wait until his junior year to play, and that would be a shame, especially since he has up to four more years of eligibility while John has only one.

If we're going to risk that downside, it should be for a guy who offers a BIG step up. Which is why I brought up the statistics, which show Henry Coleman is a better rebounder than Theo John and is just as good a shotblocker (albeit in a smaller sample). And that's before any freshman-to-sophomore leap that Coleman might have. Frankly, for a big bruiser, Theo John rebounds more like a small forward. In 2020-21, Wendell Moore had a better defensive rebound percentage than John (and almost as good an offensive rebound percentage). YMMV, of course, but to me it seems like a big risk for a small potential payoff. K obviously doesn't consult me, but I hope we don't get him.

I don’t think you can reliably compare Henry’s stats to a guy who was a multi-year starter in the big east. Henry is very much unproven even if his profile as a rebounder and shot blocker looks nice.

Agreed though, this is a risky move in terms of Coleman’s development. However, if you subscribe to the theory that this might be K’s last, best chance at #6, I think you do whatever you can to fill out your roster and figure it out from there.

I personally have no question that John raises the *floor* of this team and I just doubt you’re going to find a ceiling-raiser who is willing to come in and play in a front court with Mark Williams and Paolo Banchero.

[jimsumner]

Duke currently has eight recruited players for next season, only two of whom are upperclassmen and only one of whom is a traditional center. Adding a veteran big who has proven himself in a power conference, while mastering the books, seems like a no-brainer to me.

[bshrader]

I strongly suspect that statistics lie a lot less than people's eyes.



I don't think it's as simple as that at all. This past season, of what little time he spent on the court, most of it was spent guarding the opposing center.

Also, even if you're correct, for the 10 or so minutes when Mark Williams is off the court, I'm sure Banchero will be more than adequate guarding the opposing center while Coleman guards the opposing PF (if that's what K thinks is best, defensively).



This is what I'm mainly concerned about if John comes to Duke.



I don't think we need bodies. I don't think we might as well add a guy just because we can. The way K utilizes his rotation, there are at most 10 to 12 minutes available for a backup big. (And CDu is right that based on history some of those minutes will likely be spent with Griffin or Moore playing PF in a small lineup.)

But the biggest issue is we're not playing a video game or fantasy basketball here. This sort of move has consequences beyond the player brought in. The upside here is we'll have a guy who can help in practice, play a few minutes, and might be needed in case of injury or in the possible one or two games where our opponent might have a center that Banchero and Coleman couldn't handle for the time Williams is off the court. The downside is if John gets those minutes, Coleman won't. The two players won't be complementary in any way. If John is on the team and takes the backup big role, Coleman will only play mop up minutes which will at best impede his development and at worst drive him to consider a transfer. He may not want to wait until his junior year to play, and that would be a shame, especially since he has up to four more years of eligibility while John has only one.

If we're going to risk that downside, it should be for a guy who offers a BIG step up. Which is why I brought up the statistics, which show Henry Coleman is a better rebounder than Theo John and is just as good a shotblocker (albeit in a smaller sample). And that's before any freshman-to-sophomore leap that Coleman might have. Frankly, for a big bruiser, Theo John rebounds more like a small forward. In 2020-21, Wendell Moore had a better defensive rebound percentage than John (and almost as good an offensive rebound percentage). YMMV, of course, but to me it seems like a big risk for a small potential payoff. K obviously doesn't consult me, but I hope we don't get him.

I gotta be honest, and I believe I'm in the minority but...I'm not seeing this potential greatness from Coleman. I just cant see it. I cant see it, even with continued progression. I wonder if maybe we have scars emanating from Semi...but I just dont see Coleman developing into a major piece. He's 6'7 and a limited offensive arsenal (And maybe this changes somewhat, but I dont see it to the point where it moves the needle and bringing in someone like John would stunt that potential).

But if you are a believer in his potential, I dont see how bringing in someone like John for him to practice against daily wouldnt improve his toughness and ability.

[scottdude8]

I gotta be honest, and I believe I'm in the minority but...I'm not seeing this potential greatness from Coleman. I just cant see it. I cant see it, even with continued progression. I wonder if maybe we have scars emanating from Semi...but I just dont see Coleman developing into a major piece. He's 6'7 and a limited offensive arsenal (And maybe this changes somewhat, but I dont see it to the point where it moves the needle and bringing in someone like John would stunt that potential).

But if you are a believer in his potential, I dont see how bringing in someone like John for him to practice against daily wouldnt improve his toughness and ability.

Mark Vital, a 6-foot-5 former 4* recruit as a SF, started on the 2021 National Champs as a PF, often defending players with 3-4 inches on him. He too was limited offensively, averaging less than 6 points a game. But he had an indelible impact on that Baylor squad, playing more than 20 minutes per game and leading the team in rebounding.

There are many examples of successful players, at the college level, with Henry's profile: a strong, but undersized, big with a great motor. If you look at everything through the lens of projecting to the NBA (which too many do nowadays), then of course your perspective on his ceiling will be very different. But with continued development Henry Coleman could play a BIG role on Duke teams as a junior and senior if we're lucky enough to have him that long. I get the sense he's not the type of guy to shy away from competition and wouldn't be put off by adding John... and he'll have every opportunity to compete with him for minutes. Tapé is case and point... he wasn't guaranteed minutes just because he transferred in. Even if we get John, if Coleman proves to be the better player in practice he'll get the minutes.

[Kedsy]

I gotta be honest, and I believe I'm in the minority but...I'm not seeing this potential greatness from Coleman. I just cant see it. I cant see it, even with continued progression. I wonder if maybe we have scars emanating from Semi...but I just dont see Coleman developing into a major piece. He's 6'7 and a limited offensive arsenal (And maybe this changes somewhat, but I dont see it to the point where it moves the needle and bringing in someone like John would stunt that potential).

I don't think anybody said "greatness," but isn't Henry Coleman the exact kind of recruit that many on this board have said we need to pursue and nurture and watch become a contributor as an upperclassman? Why risk that for a one-year rental who may not be any better?

But if you are a believer in his potential, I dont see how bringing in someone like John for him to practice against daily wouldnt improve his toughness and ability.

Well, it might improve all that stuff (or it might not, because if Coleman and John are both on the "blue team," they won't actually practice against each other). But so what if he's playing for Georgetown when it pays off?