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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC

    What can we expect from our two returning top-25 sophomores-to-be?

    So, there has been a lot of consternation about this season, and understandably so. It was certainly not what we'd hoped for. And some of that was the result of our freshman class struggling. That's not an unexpected outcome, as the ratings for most of those guys weren't consistent with being immediate stars. Johnson of course should have been better (he was good, but not as good as we needed him to be), but guys like Steward, Roach, and Williams all did fairly well given their recruiting rankings. But, of our four top-25 freshmen, only two (and hopefully it remains two!) appear to be heading into their sophomore years at Duke. And not surprisingly, they are the two who had the worst per-game averages over the course of the season.

    So with that, I wanted to see how recent returnees have fared for Duke. I took the 2016-2021 seasons as this was when the team really started to experience the massive season-to-season roster turnover. Prior to that, the year-to-year roster was more stable with lots of returning vets that made it harder to gauge the development of those returning top-25s. Well, that and we didn't have many returning top-25s in the 5 years prior; they were either outside the top-25 or they went pro.

    So, without further clarification, here is the list of top-25 recruits that returned for the 2016 to 2021 seasons:

    2015-16 season: Grayson Allen (#24 in RSCI for the 2014 high school class)
    2016-17: Chase Jeter (#14), Luke Kennard (#21)
    2017-18: Marques Bolden (#11)
    2018-19: None
    2019-20: Tre Jones (#13)
    2020-21: Matthew Hurt (#12), Wendell Moore (#25)

    Now let's look at the per-100 possession stats for each from the freshman to sophomore years. Note: I used the per-100 stats to avoid overstating improvement simply coming from more playing time. Here are those numbers:

    Allen 2015: 28.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.9 steals, 2.8 turnovers, 42.5 fg%, 34.6 3pt%, 84.9 ft%
    Allen 2016: 34.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 2.1 steals, 3.2 turnovers, 46.6 fg%, 41.7 3pt%, 83.7 ft%

    Jeter 2016: 14.3 points, 14.0 rebounds, 2.1 blocks, 13.6 fouls, 55.3 fg%, 54.1 ft%
    Jeter 2017: 9.9 points, 10.3 rebounds, 4.1 blocks, 7.5 fouls, 50.0 fg%, 55.6 ft%

    Kennard 2016: 25.9 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.1 steals, 1.7 turnovers, 42.1 fg%, 32.0 3pt%, 88.9 ft%
    Kennard 2017: 31.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.4 steals, 2.6 turnovers, 48.9 fg%, 43.8 3pt%, 85.6 ft%

    Bolden 2017: 13.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.6 blocks, 4.0 turnovers, 11.7 fouls, 45.7 fg%, 62.5 ft%
    Bolden 2018: 16.8 points, 15.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.3 steals, 4.2 blocks, 4.2 turnovers, 6.0 fouls, 61.5 fg%, 59.3 ft%

    Jones 2019: 15.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 8.5 assists, 3.0 steals, 2.4 turnovers, 41.4 fg%, 26.2 3pt%, 75.8 ft%
    Jones 2020: 25.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, 9.9 assists, 2.8 steals, 4.2 turnovers, 42.3 fg%, 36.1 3pt%, 77.1 ft%

    Hurt 2020: 26.0 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 2.0 blocks, 2.3 turnovers, 48.7 fg%, 39.3 3pt%, 74.1 ft%
    Hurt 2021: 32.4 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.3 blocks, 2.1 turnovers, 55.6 fg%, 44.4 3pt%, 72.4 ft%

    Moore 2020: 17.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 2.0 steals, 5.6 turnovers, 41.6 fg%, 21.1 3pt%, 80.6 ft%
    Moore 2021: 20.4 points, 10.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 2.5 steals, 4.2 turnovers, 41.7 fg%, 30.1 3pt%, 84.8 ft%

    With the exception of Jeter, everyone else saw a substantive improvement in their scoring rates. That's not surprising: guys tend to get better with age, and their role tends to increase. So no big shock. But digging deeper into the stats finds some interesting findings.

    For the guards/wings, everyone saw a 7+% jump in 3pt percentage. Jones and Moore, the two bad shooters as freshmen, improved their 3pt% by 10% and 9%. Jones saw a HUGE increase in scoring, as he went from the 4th/5th option to a primary weapon. His assists improved, but his turnovers increased (a function of a much bigger role). Allen and Moore took on substantially larger ballhandling duties as sophomores, and they each saw a nearly doubling of their assist/turnover ratio. Kennard and Jones saw their assists go up but their assist/turnover ratio go down a bit, as much of their role was an increase in scoring burden.

    For the bigs, the sample size is just two guys. One of whom got worse (Jeter) and one who got notably better (Bolden). In Bolden's case, his rebounding, assists, blocks, fg%, and fouls improved dramatically, while his scoring improved a fair amount but not quite to the degree as his other stats. For Jeter, his scoring and rebounding declined, but his blocks and foul rates improved drastically.

    So what does that mean for our two potential returnees? Perhaps little, as the sample size is small (N=2 for bigs, N=4 for littles). But it can at least give a guide as to the ranges of reasonable improvement. For the guards, it appears that 3pt shooting should probably see a 5+% bump from the prior year. Assist/turnover ratio should improve as well, although that's less of a given. And scoring rate should increase by at 15-20%. For bigs, foul rate went down a lot, and block rate went up a lot. But beyond that, things could go either way.

    For reference, here are the per-100 for Roach and Williams this past year:

    Roach 2020-21: 18.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.7 steals, 4.1 turnovers, 45.6 fg%, 31.3 3pt%, 67.5 ft%
    Williams 2020-2021: 27.1 points, 17.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.2 steals, 5.3 blocks, 3.3 turnovers, 5.6 fouls, 66.4 fg%, 53.7 ft%

    Now, I'll be honest here: I don't know that we can reasonably expect Williams to improve much upon his per-100 numbers from last year. They already dwarf those sophomore numbers from either Bolden or Jeter (which makes sense, as he was a starter and they were not). In his case, just playing more minutes at the same rates would lead to a terrific stat line. I hope the foul rate drops a bit more (maybe to around 4-5 per 100) and the other stats remain where they are or perhaps improve slightly. It's going to be really hard to do much more than he's already doing. Maybe he can get to the 25-30 points (he might take a hit in scoring with Banchero and Griffin arriving, 18 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 6 blocks, 3 turnovers, and 4 fouls per 100 possession range.

    As for Roach, there are really two areas for him to show big improvement: 3pt shooting and assist/turnover ratio. He's already a spectacular shooter from 2pt range (59% is amazing for a guard). He could do more with the steals, but that doesn't appear to be something that dramatically improves from freshman to sophomore year. Based on recent history, the 7+% improvement in 3pt shooting that each of the recent returning top-25 guards achieved would be a huge boon. It would push him into the 38% range as opposed to his current 31%. That would be fantastic, and would make him a legitimate 3pt threat. The assist/turnover ratio is a bit more of a gray area. Wendell Moore and Allen basically doubled theirs, but they did so going from being basically off-ball players to more prominent ballhandlers, whereas Roach was already a ballhandler. So I don't think doubling his ratio is a reasonable baseline expectation. Conversely, he's not likely to be asked to take on the increased scoring burden that Jones and Kennard had, so I wouldn't expect his A/TO to get worse. So probably splitting the difference makes the most sense: something like a 40-50% improvement in A/TO ratio. So let's conservatively say he has the following per-100 line next year based on the averages from the previous guys, and assuming a slightly smaller increase in 3pt% and a 40% improvement in A/TO:
    20 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals, 3.5 turnovers, 46.0 fg%, 37.0 3pt%, 70.0 ft%.

    If we assume a ~68 possession game like this year, and we assume 32 mpg for Roach and 30 mpg for Williams, that would work out to the following per-game lines:
    Roach: 10.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.9 turnovers, and 46.0 fg% and 37.0 3pt%.
    Williams: 13.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 3.0 blocks, 2.5 fouls.

    Since both of those sets are on the conservative side of the "typical" improvements of guys in their range at Duke in recent years, let's look at a slightly more aggressive set of assumptions. If we assume the ~80% improvement of A/TO and an 8% 3pt% improvement instead of just a 40% improvement and 6% improvement in 3pt%, and if we assume Williams does see some meaningful improvement in scoring and rebound rate, then we get something like this:
    Roach: 10.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.7 turnovers, 47.0 fg%, 39.0 3pt%
    Williams: 15.1 points, 10.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 3.0 blocks, 2.5 fouls.

    So, my rough per-game expectations for those two (if they return) would be something like:
    Roach: 10-12 ppg, 2.5-3 rebounds per game, 3.5-4.5 assists per game, 1-1.2 steals per game, 1.8-2.2 turnovers per game, 46-48% fg%, 37-40% 3pt%
    Williams: 14-15 ppg, 8-10 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 3 blocks, 2.5 fouls

    Anything more than that would be amazing, and less would be okay but perhaps disappointing (depending upon the performance of other players).

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hudson Valley
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    So, there has been a lot of consternation about this season, and understandably so. It was certainly not what we'd hoped for. And some of that was the result of our freshman class struggling. That's not an unexpected outcome, as the ratings for most of those guys weren't consistent with being immediate stars. Johnson of course should have been better (he was good, but not as good as we needed him to be), but guys like Steward, Roach, and Williams all did fairly well given their recruiting rankings. But, of our four top-25 freshmen, only two (and hopefully it remains two!) appear to be heading into their sophomore years at Duke. And not surprisingly, they are the two who had the worst per-game averages over the course of the season.

    So with that, I wanted to see how recent returnees have fared for Duke. I took the 2016-2021 seasons as this was when the team really started to experience the massive season-to-season roster turnover. Prior to that, the year-to-year roster was more stable with lots of returning vets that made it harder to gauge the development of those returning top-25s. Well, that and we didn't have many returning top-25s in the 5 years prior; they were either outside the top-25 or they went pro.

    So, without further clarification, here is the list of top-25 recruits that returned for the 2016 to 2021 seasons:

    2015-16 season: Grayson Allen (#24 in RSCI for the 2014 high school class)
    2016-17: Chase Jeter (#14), Luke Kennard (#21)
    2017-18: Marques Bolden (#11)
    2018-19: None
    2019-20: Tre Jones (#13)
    2020-21: Matthew Hurt (#12), Wendell Moore (#25)

    Now let's look at the per-100 possession stats for each from the freshman to sophomore years. Note: I used the per-100 stats to avoid overstating improvement simply coming from more playing time. Here are those numbers:

    Allen 2015: 28.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.9 steals, 2.8 turnovers, 42.5 fg%, 34.6 3pt%, 84.9 ft%
    Allen 2016: 34.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 2.1 steals, 3.2 turnovers, 46.6 fg%, 41.7 3pt%, 83.7 ft%

    Jeter 2016: 14.3 points, 14.0 rebounds, 2.1 blocks, 13.6 fouls, 55.3 fg%, 54.1 ft%
    Jeter 2017: 9.9 points, 10.3 rebounds, 4.1 blocks, 7.5 fouls, 50.0 fg%, 55.6 ft%

    Kennard 2016: 25.9 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.1 steals, 1.7 turnovers, 42.1 fg%, 32.0 3pt%, 88.9 ft%
    Kennard 2017: 31.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.4 steals, 2.6 turnovers, 48.9 fg%, 43.8 3pt%, 85.6 ft%

    Bolden 2017: 13.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.6 blocks, 4.0 turnovers, 11.7 fouls, 45.7 fg%, 62.5 ft%
    Bolden 2018: 16.8 points, 15.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.3 steals, 4.2 blocks, 4.2 turnovers, 6.0 fouls, 61.5 fg%, 59.3 ft%

    Jones 2019: 15.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 8.5 assists, 3.0 steals, 2.4 turnovers, 41.4 fg%, 26.2 3pt%, 75.8 ft%
    Jones 2020: 25.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, 9.9 assists, 2.8 steals, 4.2 turnovers, 42.3 fg%, 36.1 3pt%, 77.1 ft%

    Hurt 2020: 26.0 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 2.0 blocks, 2.3 turnovers, 48.7 fg%, 39.3 3pt%, 74.1 ft%
    Hurt 2021: 32.4 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.3 blocks, 2.1 turnovers, 55.6 fg%, 44.4 3pt%, 72.4 ft%

    Moore 2020: 17.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 2.0 steals, 5.6 turnovers, 41.6 fg%, 21.1 3pt%, 80.6 ft%
    Moore 2021: 20.4 points, 10.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 2.5 steals, 4.2 turnovers, 41.7 fg%, 30.1 3pt%, 84.8 ft%

    With the exception of Jeter, everyone else saw a substantive improvement in their scoring rates. That's not surprising: guys tend to get better with age, and their role tends to increase. So no big shock. But digging deeper into the stats finds some interesting findings.

    For the guards/wings, everyone saw a 7+% jump in 3pt percentage. Jones and Moore, the two bad shooters as freshmen, improved their 3pt% by 10% and 9%. Jones saw a HUGE increase in scoring, as he went from the 4th/5th option to a primary weapon. His assists improved, but his turnovers increased (a function of a much bigger role). Allen and Moore took on substantially larger ballhandling duties as sophomores, and they each saw a nearly doubling of their assist/turnover ratio. Kennard and Jones saw their assists go up but their assist/turnover ratio go down a bit, as much of their role was an increase in scoring burden.

    For the bigs, the sample size is just two guys. One of whom got worse (Jeter) and one who got notably better (Bolden). In Bolden's case, his rebounding, assists, blocks, fg%, and fouls improved dramatically, while his scoring improved a fair amount but not quite to the degree as his other stats. For Jeter, his scoring and rebounding declined, but his blocks and foul rates improved drastically.

    So what does that mean for our two potential returnees? Perhaps little, as the sample size is small (N=2 for bigs, N=4 for littles). But it can at least give a guide as to the ranges of reasonable improvement. For the guards, it appears that 3pt shooting should probably see a 5+% bump from the prior year. Assist/turnover ratio should improve as well, although that's less of a given. And scoring rate should increase by at 15-20%. For bigs, foul rate went down a lot, and block rate went up a lot. But beyond that, things could go either way.

    For reference, here are the per-100 for Roach and Williams this past year:

    Roach 2020-21: 18.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.7 steals, 4.1 turnovers, 45.6 fg%, 31.3 3pt%, 67.5 ft%
    Williams 2020-2021: 27.1 points, 17.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.2 steals, 5.3 blocks, 3.3 turnovers, 5.6 fouls, 66.4 fg%, 53.7 ft%

    Now, I'll be honest here: I don't know that we can reasonably expect Williams to improve much upon his per-100 numbers from last year. They already dwarf those sophomore numbers from either Bolden or Jeter (which makes sense, as he was a starter and they were not). In his case, just playing more minutes at the same rates would lead to a terrific stat line. I hope the foul rate drops a bit more (maybe to around 4-5 per 100) and the other stats remain where they are or perhaps improve slightly. It's going to be really hard to do much more than he's already doing. Maybe he can get to the 25-30 points (he might take a hit in scoring with Banchero and Griffin arriving, 18 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 6 blocks, 3 turnovers, and 4 fouls per 100 possession range.

    As for Roach, there are really two areas for him to show big improvement: 3pt shooting and assist/turnover ratio. He's already a spectacular shooter from 2pt range (59% is amazing for a guard). He could do more with the steals, but that doesn't appear to be something that dramatically improves from freshman to sophomore year. Based on recent history, the 7+% improvement in 3pt shooting that each of the recent returning top-25 guards achieved would be a huge boon. It would push him into the 38% range as opposed to his current 31%. That would be fantastic, and would make him a legitimate 3pt threat. The assist/turnover ratio is a bit more of a gray area. Wendell Moore and Allen basically doubled theirs, but they did so going from being basically off-ball players to more prominent ballhandlers, whereas Roach was already a ballhandler. So I don't think doubling his ratio is a reasonable baseline expectation. Conversely, he's not likely to be asked to take on the increased scoring burden that Jones and Kennard had, so I wouldn't expect his A/TO to get worse. So probably splitting the difference makes the most sense: something like a 40-50% improvement in A/TO ratio. So let's conservatively say he has the following per-100 line next year based on the averages from the previous guys, and assuming a slightly smaller increase in 3pt% and a 40% improvement in A/TO:
    20 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals, 3.5 turnovers, 46.0 fg%, 37.0 3pt%, 70.0 ft%.

    If we assume a ~68 possession game like this year, and we assume 32 mpg for Roach and 30 mpg for Williams, that would work out to the following per-game lines:
    Roach: 10.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.9 turnovers, and 46.0 fg% and 37.0 3pt%.
    Williams: 13.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 3.0 blocks, 2.5 fouls.

    Since both of those sets are on the conservative side of the "typical" improvements of guys in their range at Duke in recent years, let's look at a slightly more aggressive set of assumptions. If we assume the ~80% improvement of A/TO and an 8% 3pt% improvement instead of just a 40% improvement and 6% improvement in 3pt%, and if we assume Williams does see some meaningful improvement in scoring and rebound rate, then we get something like this:
    Roach: 10.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.7 turnovers, 47.0 fg%, 39.0 3pt%
    Williams: 15.1 points, 10.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 3.0 blocks, 2.5 fouls.

    So, my rough per-game expectations for those two (if they return) would be something like:
    Roach: 10-12 ppg, 2.5-3 rebounds per game, 3.5-4.5 assists per game, 1-1.2 steals per game, 1.8-2.2 turnovers per game, 46-48% fg%, 37-40% 3pt%
    Williams: 14-15 ppg, 8-10 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 3 blocks, 2.5 fouls

    Anything more than that would be amazing, and less would be okay but perhaps disappointing (depending upon the performance of other players).
    with the incoming talent and some improvement from the other in-place players, I think I would gladly take those numbers.

  3. #3
    Really impressive investigating man great job. I'm new to this site but it amazes me. I'm with you for williams. Def the player I'm most excited to see next year but don't feel as confident on predicting his performance compared to other returners. His body gives him big nba potential if he can pack on mass and get his feet to catch up on defense. I could also see him getting into some annoying foul habits like we saw with Hurt this year.

  4. #4
    Thanks Cdu. Excellent analysis that backed up my gut feeling that Roach should make a nice jump in productivity. Hopefully a normal offseason and preseason, plus more frontcourt weapons to finish plays, will allow him to put up numbers on the aggressive end of your scale.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    So, my rough per-game expectations for those two (if they return) would be something like:
    Roach: 10-12 ppg, 2.5-3 rebounds per game, 3.5-4.5 assists per game, 1-1.2 steals per game, 1.8-2.2 turnovers per game, 46-48% fg%, 37-40% 3pt%
    Williams: 14-15 ppg, 8-10 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 3 blocks, 2.5 fouls

    Anything more than that would be amazing, and less would be okay but perhaps disappointing (depending upon the performance of other players).
    I think those Roach numbers look good. His rebounding numbers may be off, because the Banchero/Williams duo may clean up. Griffin at the 3 may also help rebounding. And if Moore is at the 2 (which I really hope not), then rebounding could finally be a Duke strength!

    As for Williams, I have no idea what to think. A line of 15/9/1/3 is absolutely nasty, but at the same time they feel slightly underwhelming given the hype surrounding Williams. I cannot think of an upcoming sophomore in recent memory who had more hype. Kennard had an okay freshman year and was completely overshadowed by the best Duke recruiting class at the time (Giles, Harris, Bolden, Jackson). G Allen was part of a championship team but didn't put up great stats during the season (his 2 FF games did give the fans a ton of optimism). Jeter, Bolden, Hurt, and Moore all had underwhelming freshman seasons compared to their relative rankings and didn't show the potential or promise that Williams showed in the last third of the season. Maybe Tre Jones?

    Anywho, the point I'm trying to make is Williams may be a Shelden Williams-like monster with a stat line of 19/11/1/4.5 (okay, Mark isn't Shelden with blocks. So maybe 3 is right)? Could he be that good? And even if he is that good, are there too many mouths to feed (Banchero, Griffin, and Roach, at a minimum, will need a lot of touches) to prevent Williams from being a Shelden monster?
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    I think those Roach numbers look good. His rebounding numbers may be off, because the Banchero/Williams duo may clean up. Griffin at the 3 may also help rebounding. And if Moore is at the 2 (which I really hope not), then rebounding could finally be a Duke strength!

    As for Williams, I have no idea what to think. A line of 15/9/1/3 is absolutely nasty, but at the same time they feel slightly underwhelming given the hype surrounding Williams. I cannot think of an upcoming sophomore in recent memory who had more hype. Kennard had an okay freshman year and was completely overshadowed by the best Duke recruiting class at the time (Giles, Harris, Bolden, Jackson). G Allen was part of a championship team but didn't put up great stats during the season (his 2 FF games did give the fans a ton of optimism). Jeter, Bolden, Hurt, and Moore all had underwhelming freshman seasons compared to their relative rankings and didn't show the potential or promise that Williams showed in the last third of the season. Maybe Tre Jones?

    Anywho, the point I'm trying to make is Williams may be a Shelden Williams-like monster with a stat line of 19/11/1/4.5 (okay, Mark isn't Shelden with blocks. So maybe 3 is right)? Could he be that good? And even if he is that good, are there too many mouths to feed (Banchero, Griffin, and Roach, at a minimum, will need a lot of touches) to prevent Williams from being a Shelden monster?
    Yeah, I was still being conservative with Williams' line. My concern is that the addition of two high-usage players in Banchero and Griffin may restrict his stats somewhat. And his per-possession stats were already SO monstrous that it's hard to make a straight-faced argument that he'll increase them by 20% or more. But we've not had a player with his second half return in a long time, so it was harder to approximate for him. None of the six previous guys had numbers anything like this as freshmen.

    That said, Mark W actually has BETTER shotblocking numbers than Shelden W had as a freshman. His 9.6% block% dwarfs Shelden's 5.8%, and actually betters Shelden's best career number (8.0%). So it probably IS fair to think Williams' block numbers could push up towards 4 next year. For what it is worth, in games where Mark played 15+ minutes, he blocked 2.5 shots per game this past year. And that was averaging just 23 minutes per game. So if he gets up to 30 mpg, even holding the same block rate would be 3.2 per game. So, yeah, 3 is probably conservative.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised by an 18/10/4 season from Mark next year, but I didn't want to set that as an expectation. With the potential scoring and rebounding prowess coming in, he might find the points and boards harder to come by.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yeah, I was still being conservative with Williams' line. My concern is that the addition of two high-usage players in Banchero and Griffin may restrict his stats somewhat. And his per-possession stats were already SO monstrous that it's hard to make a straight-faced argument that he'll increase them by 20% or more.

    That said, Mark W actually has BETTER shotblocking numbers than Shelden W had as a freshman. His 9.6% block% dwarfs Shelden's 5.8%, and actually betters Shelden's best career number (8.0%). So it probably IS fair to think Williams' block numbers could push up towards 4 next year. For what it is worth, in games where Mark played 15+ minutes, he blocked 2.5 shots per game this past year. And that was averaging just 23 minutes per game. So if he gets up to 30 mpg, even holding the same block rate would be 3.2 per game. So, yeah, 3 is probably conservative.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised by an 18/10/4 season from Mark next year, but I didn't want to set that as an expectation. With the potential scoring and rebounding prowess coming in, he might find the points and boards harder to come by.
    Interesting regarding the Williams/Williams freshman comparison. That's wild.

    I may actually be going against my own argument, but are there more mouths to feed in Redick/Deng/Duhon/Ewing (Shelden's soph season) or Banchero/Griffin/Roach/Moore (Mark's soph season)? I'm not so sure it's the latter, which means a high Banchero/Griffin usage rate wouldn't have an much of an impact to Williams a.s we think
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    That said, Mark W actually has BETTER shotblocking numbers than Shelden W had as a freshman.
    Maybe to a fault? I remember thinking some games that he should go for blocks a little less. I don't know if the numbers bear that out.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    roach needs to have better A/TO. Simple as that. Our backcourt options are slim...we're already looking at roach and keels likely playing huge minutes every night...they'll need to do enough to enable the frontcourt, and not taking care of the ball isn't going to get it done.
    basketball is back, baby!

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Maybe to a fault? I remember thinking some games that he should go for blocks a little less. I don't know if the numbers bear that out.
    Yeah, I agree. I think one of the areas in which most young bigs need to get better is in finishing plays. In high school, they could get away with a dominating first effort more often than not, so continuing to compete through the end of the possession is usually an area for improvement. And I think Williams was not different in that regard.

    Now, Williams was absolutely amazing this year when his first effort got a result, and more successful than most at getting a result with that first effort. But when he didn't get the block, he was often sluggish to get back into the mix, resulting in a fair amount of second-chance points. I suspect/hope that a decent chunk of his offseason work (besides just getting stronger) would focus on conditioning and the mental focus of staying with the play even after he commits to his first action.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Interesting regarding the Williams/Williams freshman comparison. That's wild.

    I may actually be going against my own argument, but are there more mouths to feed in Redick/Deng/Duhon/Ewing (Shelden's soph season) or Banchero/Griffin/Roach/Moore (Mark's soph season)? I'm not so sure it's the latter, which means a high Banchero/Griffin usage rate wouldn't have an much of an impact to Williams a.s we think
    Williams "only" averaged 12.6 ppg as a sophomore though. It wasn't until his senior year that he averaged 19/11/4.

    Don't get me wrong; I still think Williams will score a lot. 14-15 ppg is a really good number, especially given the other mouths to feed. For reference, Redick and Deng "only" combined for 31 ppg in 2004, and Ewing just 12.6. Duhon shot fairly sparingly, averaging just 10 per game. So I'm not sure that the 2004 quartet (plus Shav off the bench) actually ate up as much usage as the Banchero/Griffin/Moore/Keels/Roach quintet will get.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    roach needs to have better A/TO. Simple as that. Our backcourt options are slim...we're already looking at roach and keels likely playing huge minutes every night...they'll need to do enough to enable the frontcourt, and not taking care of the ball isn't going to get it done.
    I expect Roach will take care of the ball just fine next year. He isn't going to be Tre/Tyus Jones, but he's going to be fine. And with the playmaking we should have at other spots, he doesn't need to be Tre/Tyus Jones.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Williams "only" averaged 12.6 ppg as a sophomore though. It wasn't until his senior year that he averaged 19/11/4.

    Don't get me wrong; I still think Williams will score a lot. 14-15 ppg is a really good number, especially given the other mouths to feed. For reference, Redick and Deng "only" combined for 31 ppg in 2004, and Ewing just 12.6. Duhon shot fairly sparingly, averaging just 10 per game. So I'm not sure that the 2004 quartet (plus Shav off the bench) actually ate up as much usage as the Banchero/Griffin/Moore/Keels/Roach quintet will get.
    Crap. You're right. I was looking at Shelden's per 40 stats.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  14. #14
    Great write-up CDu.

    Regarding Roach, we did see improvement from his shot during the season. He finished the year on a real tear form outside, hitting 46.2% from beyond the arc in the final 7 games of the season and 39.1% over the final 13. I would love to see Roach continue that trend and to attack the rim a lot more. He seems to be a good decision-maker when it comes to his own shot going to the rim. It's rare to see a young player like him with a reliable pull-up jumper, but it looks like he has that. And he finished around the rim very well for a player his size. Having legit post options to dump the ball off to or to lob it could help. I think that's the key to getting him more assists, too. Driving and dishing or driving and attacking the basket could help him grow in to the role as primary PG next season. He was getting to the FT line a lot early in the year but then stopped doing that around the time the offense changed up. I wonder if Coach K will trust him in pick-and-roll, something that he doesn't really incorporate into the offense as much as the NBA does. Duke will have the personnel to run the pick-and-roll next year with Paolo and Roach. If Roach does become a guy that can hit 38%+ from 3, he'd be a real weapon running that action. Paolo seems like the kind of player that can just destroy a team in PNR. I'd love to see it.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Great write-up CDu.

    Regarding Roach, we did see improvement from his shot during the season. He finished the year on a real tear form outside, hitting 46.2% from beyond the arc in the final 7 games of the season and 39.1% over the final 13. I would love to see Roach continue that trend and to attack the rim a lot more. He seems to be a good decision-maker when it comes to his own shot going to the rim. It's rare to see a young player like him with a reliable pull-up jumper, but it looks like he has that. And he finished around the rim very well for a player his size. Having legit post options to dump the ball off to or to lob it could help. I think that's the key to getting him more assists, too. Driving and dishing or driving and attacking the basket could help him grow in to the role as primary PG next season. He was getting to the FT line a lot early in the year but then stopped doing that around the time the offense changed up. I wonder if Coach K will trust him in pick-and-roll, something that he doesn't really incorporate into the offense as much as the NBA does. Duke will have the personnel to run the pick-and-roll next year with Paolo and Roach. If Roach does become a guy that can hit 38%+ from 3, he'd be a real weapon running that action. Paolo seems like the kind of player that can just destroy a team in PNR. I'd love to see it.
    Yeah, Roach did a few things really well this year. Finishing inside the 3pt line was one of them. He shot 60.7% at the rim (pretty good for a guard, and better than Johnson or Brakefield or Coleman), 56.2% on 2pt jumpers (better than even Matthew Hurt and almost double most anyone else's %s). And as you mentioned, he shot well from 3 in the second half: over the last 13 games of the season, he shot 39.1% from 3. And it wasn't on low volume; he attempted nearly 4 per game in that stretch. So I'm cautiously optimistic that he'll be able to keep that 38% (or higher) 3pt percentage next year, especially with Griffin/Williams/Banchero drawing attention away.

    I don't expect huge assist numbers for Roach. He only averaged around 5 per game at his peak in high school. Some of that was because they had another really good PG ("Dug" McDaniel) so he focused more on scoring, but even still I don't think that's ever going to be his strength. But I do really like the potential PnR options with Roach and either Banchero or Williams. With Roach's ability off the dribble, if he can get comfortable lobbing to Williams Banchero, that should be a fairly effective action.

  16. #16
    Which returning player takes the biggest scoring leap for Duke next season? Had fun thinking about this one. Think there is case to be made for different guys. Examining the possibilities:

    https://bluedevilstop.com/which-retu...leap-for-duke/

  17. #17
    You’d have to expect Williams to make the biggest “leap” based on 7.1 scoring average from last season. But maybe not if you used his scoring average after Johnson opted out. In that case Roach, at 8 PPG is the likely to make the biggest scoring jump. I think the best outcome for Duke would be for Wendell to make the biggest leap. If Wendell has a first or second team All ACC season, I think Duke will have a great year. It will but harder for Williams to improve his scoring being the 4th or 5th option.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    You’d have to expect Williams to make the biggest “leap” based on 7.1 scoring average from last season. But maybe not if you used his scoring average after Johnson opted out. In that case Roach, at 8 PPG is the likely to make the biggest scoring jump. I think the best outcome for Duke would be for Wendell to make the biggest leap. If Wendell has a first or second team All ACC season, I think Duke will have a great year. It will but harder for Williams to improve his scoring being the 4th or 5th option.
    But at least Williams gets a lot of opportunities based on the misses of others...scoring residue if you will.

  19. #19
    For what it's worth, T-Rank (Bart Torvik) has player projections out for Duke's returners:

    https://barttorvik.com/rosters22.php...Duke&year=2022

    Jeremy Roach: 11.7 pts/3.0 reb/2.9 ast
    Mark Williams: 10.5 pts/8.1 reb/1.4 ast (2nd in ACC in reb, 0.1 behind Keve Aluma of VT)

    Here are the other returners:

    Wendell Moore, Jr.: 13.1 pts/4.8 reb/2.2 ast
    Joey Baker: 3.2 pts/1.3 reb/0.4 ast

    And the newcomers:

    Paolo Banchero: 17.5 pts/7.7 reb/1.6 ast (1st in ACC in pts/4th in ACC in reb)
    AJ Griffin: 9.0 pts/5.8 reb/1.7 ast
    Trevor Keels: 6.8 pts/3.7 reb/1.7 ast
    Theo John: 3.2 pts/2.0 reb/0.7 ast
    Jaylen Blakes: 1.9 pts/0.6 reb/1.1 ast

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    For what it's worth, T-Rank (Bart Torvik) has player projections out for Duke's returners:

    https://barttorvik.com/rosters22.php...Duke&year=2022

    Jeremy Roach: 11.7 pts/3.0 reb/2.9 ast
    Mark Williams: 10.5 pts/8.1 reb/1.4 ast (2nd in ACC in reb, 0.1 behind Keve Aluma of VT)

    Here are the other returners:

    Wendell Moore, Jr.: 13.1 pts/4.8 reb/2.2 ast
    Joey Baker: 3.2 pts/1.3 reb/0.4 ast

    And the newcomers:

    Paolo Banchero: 17.5 pts/7.7 reb/1.6 ast (1st in ACC in pts/4th in ACC in reb)
    AJ Griffin: 9.0 pts/5.8 reb/1.7 ast
    Trevor Keels: 6.8 pts/3.7 reb/1.7 ast
    Theo John: 3.2 pts/2.0 reb/0.7 ast
    Jaylen Blakes: 1.9 pts/0.6 reb/1.1 ast
    The cumulative assist totals seem really low. At least one of Roach or Moore should be at 4 apg as a minimum. It's hard to see how Duke will be scoring 78 or so points per game without generating more assists. Duke averaged 16.3 apg last year in a historically bad season, without a top-tier point guard. If Roach cannot break 3 apg, then Duke is in trouble.

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