2021 Offseason Transfers

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I strongly suspect that statistics lie a lot less than people's eyes.



I don't think it's as simple as that at all. This past season, of what little time he spent on the court, most of it was spent guarding the opposing center.

Also, even if you're correct, for the 10 or so minutes when Mark Williams is off the court, I'm sure Banchero will be more than adequate guarding the opposing center while Coleman guards the opposing PF (if that's what K thinks is best, defensively).



This is what I'm mainly concerned about if John comes to Duke.



I don't think we need bodies. I don't think we might as well add a guy just because we can. The way K utilizes his rotation, there are at most 10 to 12 minutes available for a backup big. (And CDu is right that based on history some of those minutes will likely be spent with Griffin or Moore playing PF in a small lineup.)

But the biggest issue is we're not playing a video game or fantasy basketball here. This sort of move has consequences beyond the player brought in. The upside here is we'll have a guy who can help in practice, play a few minutes, and might be needed in case of injury or in the possible one or two games where our opponent might have a center that Banchero and Coleman couldn't handle for the time Williams is off the court. The downside is if John gets those minutes, Coleman won't. The two players won't be complementary in any way. If John is on the team and takes the backup big role, Coleman will only play mop up minutes which will at best impede his development and at worst drive him to consider a transfer. He may not want to wait until his junior year to play, and that would be a shame, especially since he has up to four more years of eligibility while John has only one.

If we're going to risk that downside, it should be for a guy who offers a BIG step up. Which is why I brought up the statistics, which show Henry Coleman is a better rebounder than Theo John and is just as good a shotblocker (albeit in a smaller sample). And that's before any freshman-to-sophomore leap that Coleman might have. Frankly, for a big bruiser, Theo John rebounds more like a small forward. In 2020-21, Wendell Moore had a better defensive rebound percentage than John (and almost as good an offensive rebound percentage). YMMV, of course, but to me it seems like a big risk for a small potential payoff. K obviously doesn't consult me, but I hope we don't get him.

We definitely need bodies. Not counting Blakes, we have eight scholarship players. Then we have two walk-ons. Maybe we can dig up another walk-on. That is barely enough to conduct practice. And heaven forbid we have an injury or two (which never happens to Duke).

The difficulty of coaching and roster management in the present era is that you need to have depth on your roster, but no one is patient about waiting behind someone else, and it is really easy to transfer if you are not happy. So it is tough to find guys to sit on the end of the bench, but it is hard to succeed without them. Some people thrive on uncertainty. Others don't.

As much as we both agree that this could inhibit Henry's development, I think it is the least bad way to do things. Based on my limited knowledge of John, I think there is a fair amount of overlap between him and Henry. But he is only coming for a year, which is far different than recruiting a freshman. From my view (for what that is worth), Henry seems like a smart kid who was playing the long game and is not just at Duke as a stopping point on his way to the NBA but also values the academics, environment, etc. and he was not promised huge minutes from day 1. So having things delayed a year should not be a huge shock to him. Playing more minutes in games would be very helpful for him. But practicing against John rather than against Worthington or Savarino will also help him in the long run.

[JasonEvans]

Duke currently has eight recruited players for next season, only two of whom are upperclassmen and only one of whom is a traditional center. Adding a veteran big who has proven himself in a power conference, while mastering the books, seems like a no-brainer to me.

Jim speaks the truth... while it is nice to have depth for the odd game where someone gets hurt or in foul trouble, I cannot stress how important it is to have a really robust practice situation. I am not saying Duke will play all 10 guys every game. I am not saying that Moore and Griffin won't move around among the 2-4 at times in game lineups. I'm talking about helping guys to learn and grow in practice.

When I look at the 2-deep, practice lineup, this is what I currently see:

PG - Roach & xxxx
SG - Moore & Keels (flip flop them if you want)
SF - Griffin & Baker
PF - Banchero & Coleman
C - Williams & yyyy

We need to solve for X and Y. Sure, X could be Savarino and Y could be Worthington, but I think we all know it would be better if those were recruited athletes. Johns and Blakes are perfect fits.

And with regard to Henry's growth as a player, I am 100% on the Coleman bandwagon. I love the kid and think he brings an infectious energy to the floor. But, Duke needs to field the best team it can for NEXT YEAR. Adding a rim protector with deep experience and a strong work ethic seems like a no-brainer.

-Jason "I suspect that whether we get Johns or not, Henry is going to find a role on the team, much like he did as a freshman when he became the first frontcourt guy off the bench late in the season" Evans

[bshrader]

I don't think anybody said "greatness," but isn't Henry Coleman the exact kind of recruit that many on this board have said we need to pursue and nurture and watch become a contributor as an upperclassman? Why risk that for a one-year rental who may not be any better?



Well, it might improve all that stuff (or it might not, because if Coleman and John are both on the "blue team," they won't actually practice against each other). But so what if he's playing for Georgetown when it pays off?

I guess, ultimately, I dont believe that an addition of John and progression/growth of Coleman at Duke are mutually exclusive. And I like the depth that an addition of John can provide.

[bshrader]

De'Vion Harmon, SG from Oklahoma, has hit the portal. Played over 30mpg. Averaged 13ppg and about a 33% 3-pt shooter. Dealt with some injuries. Not saying we would have interest, just a notable name in the portal.

[tommy]

At the end of the day, it comes down to what a player wants to accomplish in their career. For John, he may want the Duke connections, a chance to be on a talented team with Final Four aspirations, a graduate degree, another year to get healthy, or something else. We saw with Andrew Nembhard that he didn't mind joining what was a crowded backcourt in Gonzaga. Nembhard didn't expect to play last season, but he still has other guards on the roster, including Hunter Sallis and a couple of sophomores, that are competing for minutes in the backcourt. No matter to him. He wanted to play for a winner. John has dealt with injuries and doesn't appear on any NBA radars. He is an undersized C with limited shooting skills (although his FT shooting took a big jump this past season and he hit 3/4 from 3-point range...). Another year in college at a place that is going to have a ton of eyes on it could be just what he needs. Spend a year getting healthy, see if he can contribute, and maybe there's a professional opportunity for him somewhere, in the G-League or overseas. In the best case scenario, he shows to be a viable reserve on a National Title contender and gets to experience what that is like. Worst case scenario, he gets a free year of a graduate degree at one of the top universities in the country. That deal isn't going to appeal to everyone, but it might appeal to John.

Sounds like a lot of similarities to Tape to me. Except he has a record of some success at the Big East level, not the Ivy League. But there will be no guarantees of playing time. Just like there weren't any for Tape. Tape couldn't beat out Mark Williams (or Coleman) for big man minutes. Maybe John could beat out Coleman for first-big-off-the-bench. Maybe he couldn't. He'll have to earn it. If he's not up for that, then he won't, and shouldn't, come. But I agree that if he is up for it, we should absolutely take him. Henry will find a role.

If (and yes, in today's landscape it's a big if) you can land a developmental prospect, sell them on the process, and get them to stay in your program, a junior/senior ranked #100-200 in their recruiting class can often outperform an inexperienced 5* freshman at the collegiate level.

Yes. Our inexperienced 5* freshmen have been on the receiving end of that too many times to count . . .

[Kedsy]

Jim speaks the truth... while it is nice to have depth for the odd game where someone gets hurt or in foul trouble, I cannot stress how important it is to have a really robust practice situation.

Not having 10 recruited scholarship players for practice didn't seem to hurt us in 2015, 2010, 2004, or 2001. I'm not saying it's better to have fewer players, and it may be coincidence that by January 1 all four of our last four Final Four teams had fewer than 10 recruited practice bodies, but it also would seem evident that having 10 recruited scholarship players is not a requirement for success.

Also, I'm not against bringing in more players under the right circumstances. I'm all for recruiting Jaylen Blakes, for example. But I'm a little surprised the anti-OAD crowd isn't all up in arms about Theo John. He's an unambiguous OAD except without OAD talent, and while it's far from certain, there's certainly a chance he could drive a top 50 four-year player out of the program. My view is if we're going to bring in a one-year player we ought to make sure he's better than the multi-year players we already have.

[CDu]

Not having 10 recruited scholarship players for practice didn't seem to hurt us in 2015, 2010, 2004, or 2001. I'm not saying it's better to have fewer players, and it may be coincidence that by January 1 all four of our last four Final Four teams had fewer than 10 recruited practice bodies, but it also would seem evident that having 10 recruited scholarship players is not a requirement for success.

Also, I'm not against bringing in more players under the right circumstances. I'm all for recruiting Jaylen Blakes, for example. But I'm a little surprised the anti-OAD crowd isn't all up in arms about Theo John. He's an unambiguous OAD except without OAD talent, and while it's far from certain, there's certainly a chance he could drive a top 50 four-year player out of the program. My view is if we're going to bring in a one-year player we ought to make sure he's better than the multi-year players we already have.

Yeah, I'm torn on this one myself. On the one hand, bringing in John would certainly increase the chance that Coleman will leave. And that creates a problem for the 2022-23 team as we could quite conceivably have just 1 or 2 scholarship players returning for that year. I mean, it's already going to be a concern, but this could even further exacerbate it.

On the other hand, this might be Coach K's last realistic shot at a title. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the roster for the 2022-23 season is... likely to be in flux. So it's very possible that there is a dropoff, and that could be true regardless of Coleman's decision. And after 2023, do we even know if Coach K will still be coaching? And for how many more years? So it feels like maximizing the roster for 2021-22 makes sense, as next year's team very much has title aspirations assuming the remaining guys return. And we aren't likely to find guys much better than John to improve the frontcourt bench. Really, the only spot where we could stand a chance for a clear upgrade to the starting lineup might be PG, but even that's not a given as Roach is still a pretty highly-regarded recruit and would have a year's experience and a normal offseason to develop/improve. So, it's debatable whether there is a better option out there than John to make the team better. And as much as I like Coleman, I'm not convinced that a sophomore Coleman is going to match a 3-year starter from a P6 school. Yes, Coleman had nice rate stats, but he compiled almost all of those stats in blowouts, so it remains very unclear whether he can translate that to a more regular role. Whereas we know John can do it for significant minutes against P6 competition, as he's done it as a starter for 3 years now (and he was a regular reserve as a freshman).

Either way, we're introducing risk, whether it be next season or the year after.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Not having 10 recruited scholarship players for practice didn't seem to hurt us in 2015, 2010, 2004, or 2001. I'm not saying it's better to have fewer players, and it may be coincidence that by January 1 all four of our last four Final Four teams had fewer than 10 recruited practice bodies, but it also would seem evident that having 10 recruited scholarship players is not a requirement for success.

Also, I'm not against bringing in more players under the right circumstances. I'm all for recruiting Jaylen Blakes, for example. But I'm a little surprised the anti-OAD crowd isn't all up in arms about Theo John. He's an unambiguous OAD except without OAD talent, and while it's far from certain, there's certainly a chance he could drive a top 50 four-year player out of the program. My view is if we're going to bring in a one-year player we ought to make sure he's better than the multi-year players we already have.

Slightly disingenuous. Duke started 2015 and 2010 with 10 scholarship players; Suliamon and Czyz transferred during the year. But during preseason and the early part of the season, they had 10 recruited scholarship players for full practice squads.

Both those teams, at the end of their seasons, still have more recruited scholarship players than we do now.

[tommy]

Yeah, I'm torn on this one myself. On the one hand, bringing in John would certainly increase the chance that Coleman will leave. And that creates a problem for the 2022-23 team as we could quite conceivably have just 1 or 2 scholarship players returning for that year. I mean, it's already going to be a concern, but this could even further exacerbate it.

On the other hand, this might be Coach K's last realistic shot at a title. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the roster for the 2022-23 season is... likely to be in flux. So it's very possible that there is a dropoff, and that could be true regardless of Coleman's decision. And after 2023, do we even know if Coach K will still be coaching? And for how many more years? So it feels like maximizing the roster for 2021-22 makes sense, as next year's team very much has title aspirations assuming the remaining guys return. And we aren't likely to find guys much better than John to improve the frontcourt bench. Really, the only spot where we could stand a chance for a clear upgrade to the starting lineup might be PG, but even that's not a given as Roach is still a pretty highly-regarded recruit and would have a year's experience and a normal offseason to develop/improve. So, it's debatable whether there is a better option out there than John to make the team better. And as much as I like Coleman, I'm not convinced that a sophomore Coleman is going to match a 3-year starter from a P6 school. Yes, Coleman had nice rate stats, but he compiled almost all of those stats in blowouts, so it remains very unclear whether he can translate that to a more regular role. Whereas we know John can do it for significant minutes against P6 competition, as he's done it as a starter for 3 years now (and he was a regular reserve as a freshman).

Either way, we're introducing risk, whether it be next season or the year after.

Agree with you. And for this to negatively impact next year's team, Coleman would have to transfer now. Would he really be ready to make that kind of decision this quickly? Henry by all accounts is a really bright guy. He saw what happened last year. Patrick Tape was brought in as a one year player -- like John would be -- at Henry's position, basically. Henry moved past him in the rotation, and while he didn't play all that many minutes, he did play twice as many as Big Pat did. I bet Henry wouldn't so quickly just cede the position to John and transfer. If he stuck it out, either he'd beat John out for minutes like he did Pat, or if not he'd still know that John is gone after the season and things would likely open up for Henry getting more PT again as a junior.

I really like Henry and see the potential in him, but I really don't think we saw enough (95 minutes, many of which were mop-up) from him to feel confident enough in what he can become so as to justify not bringing in a guy with the more proven quality of John, given some of the factors you have outlined well.

[Kedsy]

Slightly disingenuous. Duke started 2015 and 2010 with 10 scholarship players; Suliamon and Czyz transferred during the year. But during preseason and the early part of the season, they had 10 recruited scholarship players for full practice squads.

Both those teams, at the end of their seasons, still have fewer recruited scholarship players than we do now.

Well, that's why I said "by January 1." It's true both the 2010 and 2015 teams started with 10 recruited scholarship players, but by mid-December Czyz in 2009-10 and Ojeleye in 2014-15 were gone (and both situations were potentially predictable and my concern is the same thing will happen with Henry Coleman). After Sulaimon was kicked off the team (he didn't transfer until after the season was over), the 2015 squad only had 8 scholarship players. And during the time the team had just 8 recruited practice bodies, Duke's win/loss record was 18-1.

If he stuck it out, either he'd beat John out for minutes like he did Pat, or if not he'd still know that John is gone after the season and things would likely open up for Henry getting more PT again as a junior.

But wouldn't the same logic have applied to Michael Gbinije, Semi Ojeleye, Derryck Thornton, Eliot Williams, and others? Sometimes even really bright teenagers get impatient.

Also, with no Theo John, Coleman can look forward to 10 to 15 mpg. Even if he "beats John out for minutes," it's not like John would get zero. And if you're only looking forward to 10 or 15 minutes, dropping it down to 5 to 8 is kind of a big difference.

[CameronDuke]

Providence forward Jimmy Nichols, Jr. has transferred to Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU).

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well, that's why I said "by January 1." It's true both the 2010 and 2015 teams started with 10 recruited scholarship players, but by mid-December Czyz in 2009-10 and Ojeleye in 2014-15 were gone (and both situations were potentially predictable and my concern is the same thing will happen with Henry Coleman). After Sulaimon was kicked off the team (he didn't transfer until after the season was over), the 2015 squad only had 8 scholarship players. And during the time the team had just 8 recruited practice bodies, Duke's win/loss record was 18-1.

Does Sean Obi count? Can red shirt / sit out transfers practice? I assume they can.

I see a lot of merit in having 5-on-5 competitive games with talented players prior to the start of the season.

[CDu]

Slightly disingenuous. Duke started 2015 and 2010 with 10 scholarship players; Suliamon and Czyz transferred during the year. But during preseason and the early part of the season, they had 10 recruited scholarship players for full practice squads.

Both those teams, at the end of their seasons, still have more recruited scholarship players than we do now.

Also worth noting that the 2001, 2010, and 2015 teams actually had 11 scholarship players for practice to start each season. Jones was on the 2000-01 team, Curry was on the 2009-10 team, and Obi was on the 2014-15 team. They weren't eligible to play, but they were contributing in practice. The Czyz transfer left us with 10 by season's end (only 9 eligible to play of course) in 2010, and the Ojeleye transfer dropped us to 10 in 2015. Sulaimon wasn't dismissed from the team until almost February. So it wasn't until nearly February that that team dropped to 9 scholarship players in practice. Sweet's dismissal knocked us down to just 10, with 9 eligible to play.

In 2004, we started with 10, and lost Thompson in December. So there was still at least half of the practice season (more practice time before the season than during conference play) with 10 scholarship players.

Also worth noting that the 2004 and 2001 and 2010 teams were veteran teams, so practice players - while valuable - might be less critical than they would be for a young team.

[DukieTiger]

Does Sean Obi count? Can red shirt / sit out transfers practice? I assume they can.

I see a lot of merit in having 5-on-5 competitive games with talented players prior to the start of the season.

Was gonna say the same thing but with the name Seth Curry.

[CDu]

Was gonna say the same thing but with the name Seth Curry.

And in the case of 2001, Dahntay Jones. We had 10 scholarship players for all of 2001 and 2010, and all but the last 2 months of 2015. And we had 10 scholarship players for all but the last 3 months of 2004.

[JasonEvans]

Not having 10 recruited scholarship players for practice didn't seem to hurt us in 2015, 2010, 2004, or 2001.

Huh? By my count every single one of those teams went through the entire preseason and first couple months of the season (there is a lot more practice early in the year than late) with 10 scholarship players.

2015 had 10 recruited athletes until the middle of January when Suliamon was kicked off the team.

2010 had 10 until Czyz transferred in the middle of the season (and they had Seth Curry too, right?).

2004 also had 10 until Michael Thompson transferred, also in the middle of the season.

2001 was loaded with players!! Are you forgetting about Dahntay Jones or perhaps Reggie Love? By my count, that team had 12 D1 level players (13 if you count what guys said about the quality of JD Simpson)

Recruited scholarship players on the 2001 team:

Starters -- Battier, Dunleavy, Duhon, Boozer, JWill
Subs -- James, Sanders, Buckner, Horvath (injured midway through the season), Christiansen, Dahntay Jones
Walk-on who was D1 level talent -- Love and maybe JD Simpson

If anything, you just made a fairly convincing argument that we need to bring in 2 more scholarship players (which is what we are clearly attempting to do).

[CDu]

Huh? By my count every single one of those teams went through the entire preseason and first couple months of the season (there is a lot more practice early in the year than late) with 10 scholarship players.

2015 had 10 recruited athletes until the middle of January when Suliamon was kicked off the team.

2010 had 10 until Czyz transferred in the middle of the season (and they had Seth Curry too, right?).

2004 also had 10 until Michael Thompson transferred, also in the middle of the season.

2001 was loaded with players!! Are you forgetting about Dahntay Jones or perhaps Reggie Love? By my count, that team had 12 D1 level players (13 if you count what guys said about the quality of JD Simpson)

Recruited scholarship players on the 2001 team:

Starters -- Battier, Dunleavy, Duhon, Boozer, JWill
Subs -- James, Sanders, Buckner, Horvath (injured midway through the season), Christiansen, Dahntay Jones
Walk-on who was D1 level talent -- Love and maybe JD Simpson

If anything, you just made a fairly convincing argument that we need to bring in 2 more scholarship players (which is what we are clearly attempting to do).

Having played against Simpson in pickup ball (we were the same year in school)... I would not include him as a major D-1 caliber player. But yeah, the argument that we had less than 10 scholarship players for practice in 2001, 2010, and 2015 is simply false, and it's mostly false in 2004 as well.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Huh? By my count every single one of those teams went through the entire preseason and first couple months of the season (there is a lot more practice early in the year than late) with 10 scholarship players.

2015 had 10 recruited athletes until the middle of January when Suliamon was kicked off the team.

2010 had 10 until Czyz transferred in the middle of the season (and they had Seth Curry too, right?).

2004 also had 10 until Michael Thompson transferred, also in the middle of the season.

2001 was loaded with players!! Are you forgetting about Dahntay Jones or perhaps Reggie Love? By my count, that team had 12 D1 level players (13 if you count what guys said about the quality of JD Simpson)

Recruited scholarship players on the 2001 team:

Starters -- Battier, Dunleavy, Duhon, Boozer, JWill
Subs -- James, Sanders, Buckner, Horvath (injured midway through the season), Christiansen, Dahntay Jones
Walk-on who was D1 level talent -- Love and maybe JD Simpson

If anything, you just made a fairly convincing argument that we need to bring in 2 more scholarship players (which is what we are clearly attempting to do).

Yeah. 10 scholy players makes a lot of sense, especially for the preseason. I just kinda wish the 2 players are guards (of which 1 is a transfer) rather than a freshman guard and a senior big man (Coleman can easily slide to the 5 in your roster breakdown).

[flyingdutchdevil]

Was gonna say the same thing but with the name Seth Curry.

Wow. How did miss that? And I recall someone from that 2009-10 team saying Curry was a critical practice player.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Huh? By my count every single one of those teams went through the entire preseason and first couple months of the season (there is a lot more practice early in the year than late) with 10 scholarship players.

2015 had 10 recruited athletes until the middle of January when Suliamon was kicked off the team.

2010 had 10 until Czyz transferred in the middle of the season (and they had Seth Curry too, right?).

2004 also had 10 until Michael Thompson transferred, also in the middle of the season.

2001 was loaded with players!! Are you forgetting about Dahntay Jones or perhaps Reggie Love? By my count, that team had 12 D1 level players (13 if you count what guys said about the quality of JD Simpson)

Recruited scholarship players on the 2001 team:

Starters -- Battier, Dunleavy, Duhon, Boozer, JWill
Subs -- James, Sanders, Buckner, Horvath (injured midway through the season), Christiansen, Dahntay Jones
Walk-on who was D1 level talent -- Love and maybe JD Simpson

If anything, you just made a fairly convincing argument that we need to bring in 2 more scholarship players (which is what we are clearly attempting to do).

Thank you. I was just doing the research and you beat me to it. All of the transfers who had to sit out a year were critical to the team's success during their sitting year - listen to Jason's recent podcasts about the 2001 team and the discussions of Dahntay's impact (you're welcome for the plug!). As I've said before, I don't think Tape was a waste last year - I'm guessing that he helped push Williams in practice which led to Mark's improvement during the year - Patrick wasn't a full-fledged Power 5 starter, but he was able to do a lot more in practice than a walk-on. Also, part of the reason for ideally wanting more than 10 (but even settling for 10) is to have a little buffer in case of the inevitable in-season injury or transfer.

I think/hope that the coaches are having lots of conversations with Henry right now. If Henry says "if you bring in John, I'm gone" then they might be a lot less likely to go after John than if Henry signs off on it. From everything I understand, Coach K does a very good job of being transparent. The issue is with the player listening.