Looking Towards Next Season

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Yes, it should help those programs and the lower-tier ACC schools more. Georgia Tech, for example, could return a bunch of fifth-year seniors including Alvarado and Wright. It will be interesting to see how many of those programs see a boost from this next year.

I think the other big question will be if the NCAA allows a free one-time transfer rule for next year as is being considered. That is where things could get really crazy.

I suspect those same mid-major programs would be quite unhappy with that.

[CameronBornAndBred]

It just dawned on me that next season will be the first since '83-'84 that Duke will have a junior playing that has never been to the NCAA tournament.

[whereinthehellami]

It just dawned on me that next season will be the first since '83-'84 that Duke will have a junior playing that has never been to the NCAA tournament.

Speaking of that Junior it got me to thinking of what kind of progression can we expect from Moore for next year.

YEAR	GP	MIN	FG%	3P%	FT%	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
2020-21	24	27.6	41.7	30.1	84.8	4.8	2.7	0.2	1.2	2.4	2.0	9.7
2019-20	25	24.0	41.6	21.1	80.6	4.2	1.9	0.2	0.9	2.1	2.4	7.4

Moore increased his scoring by 2.3 points per game. Hard to see that increase much next year with Banchero and Griffin (maybe Keels) coming in and the continued growth of Steward and Williams. Any increase might be realized thru increased efficiency rather than increased usage.

Moore's FG% only increased by 0.1%, while his 3P% and FT% increased by 9% and 4.2% respectively. Kind of a mixed bag here. The FG% shows plateauing while the 3P% and FT% show growth. If Moore can get the FG% up significantly and the 3P% up a little bit, I'd be happy. This should be attainable with increased experience and more options on the offensive side. Moore should be able to pick his spots better and not feel like he has to force things.

Moore's rebounding increased by 0.6% which didn't feel that significant considering there was a huge need for rebounding on last year's team. I wouldn't expect him to increase much here next year with Griffin, Banchero, and Williams being better bets for collecting boards.

Moore's assist to turnover ratio went from 1.9:2.4 to 2.7:2.0. Headed in the right direction and with more experience and good options for easy buckets that ratio should get even better.

Moore's blocks per, steal per, and fouling per seem to have plateaued out.

I think the biggest thing for Moore will be to get more consistent and efficient. I'm not sure he really needs to have a bigger role on next year's team for them to be successful. His experience and leadership could be huge though and it will interesting to see how Coach manages that. Does Moore come off the bench as a sixth man, maybe being in the runner for sixth man of the year? Or does he start, forcing Williams or someone else to the bench? Moore seems pretty close to his ceiling to me and could maybe get to 3rd team All-ACC if things play out right for him.

[simplyluvin]

Speaking of that Junior it got me to thinking of what kind of progression can we expect from Moore for next year.

YEAR	GP	MIN	FG%	3P%	FT%	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
2020-21	24	27.6	41.7	30.1	84.8	4.8	2.7	0.2	1.2	2.4	2.0	9.7
2019-20	25	24.0	41.6	21.1	80.6	4.2	1.9	0.2	0.9	2.1	2.4	7.4

Moore increased his scoring by 2.3 points per game. Hard to see that increase much next year with Banchero and Griffin (maybe Keels) coming in and the continued growth of Steward and Williams. Any increase might be realized thru increased efficiency rather than increased usage.

Moore's FG% only increased by 0.1%, while his 3P% and FT% increased by 9% and 4.2% respectively. Kind of a mixed bag here. The FG% shows plateauing while the 3P% and FT% show growth. If Moore can get the FG% up significantly and the 3P% up a little bit, I'd be happy. This should be attainable with increased experience and more options on the offensive side. Moore should be able to pick his spots better and not feel like he has to force things.

Moore's rebounding increased by 0.6% which didn't feel that significant considering there was a huge need for rebounding on last year's team. I wouldn't expect him to increase much here next year with Griffin, Banchero, and Williams being better bets for collecting boards.

Moore's assist to turnover ratio went from 1.9:2.4 to 2.7:2.0. Headed in the right direction and with more experience and good options for easy buckets that ratio should get even better.

Moore's blocks per, steal per, and fouling per seem to have plateaued out.

I think the biggest thing for Moore will be to get more consistent and efficient. I'm not sure he really needs to have a bigger role on next year's team for them to be successful. His experience and leadership could be huge though and it will interesting to see how Coach manages that. Does Moore come off the bench as a sixth man, maybe being in the runner for sixth man of the year? Or does he start, forcing Williams or someone else to the bench? Moore seems pretty close to his ceiling to me and could maybe get to 3rd team All-ACC if things play out right for him.

This coming season I am really looking forward to Wendell's "jump" being much more on the efficiency side, even without increases in per game or per 40 averages. I see Wendell playing a glue guy and facilitator role next year, much like an underclassman Shane Battier on the '99 team (not saying Wendell is anywhere close to a guy with a retired jersey yet, so no stone-throwing please; just making a role comparison). Ast/TO improvement would be a good start, and it would really help the team if he could get the 3pt shooting to at least the mid 30s and eFG at or above 60%. Being a solid rebounder will help. Wendell doesn't seem to be the vocal type, but we'll need his leadership as well.

[Kedsy]

Speaking of that Junior it got me to thinking of what kind of progression can we expect from Moore for next year.

YEAR	GP	MIN	FG%	3P%	FT%	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
2020-21	24	27.6	41.7	30.1	84.8	4.8	2.7	0.2	1.2	2.4	2.0	9.7
2019-20	25	24.0	41.6	21.1	80.6	4.2	1.9	0.2	0.9	2.1	2.4	7.4

Moore increased his scoring by 2.3 points per game. Hard to see that increase much next year with Banchero and Griffin (maybe Keels) coming in and the continued growth of Steward and Williams. Any increase might be realized thru increased efficiency rather than increased usage.

Moore's FG% only increased by 0.1%, while his 3P% and FT% increased by 9% and 4.2% respectively. Kind of a mixed bag here. The FG% shows plateauing while the 3P% and FT% show growth. If Moore can get the FG% up significantly and the 3P% up a little bit, I'd be happy. This should be attainable with increased experience and more options on the offensive side. Moore should be able to pick his spots better and not feel like he has to force things.

Moore's rebounding increased by 0.6% which didn't feel that significant considering there was a huge need for rebounding on last year's team. I wouldn't expect him to increase much here next year with Griffin, Banchero, and Williams being better bets for collecting boards.

Moore's assist to turnover ratio went from 1.9:2.4 to 2.7:2.0. Headed in the right direction and with more experience and good options for easy buckets that ratio should get even better.

Moore's blocks per, steal per, and fouling per seem to have plateaued out.

I think the biggest thing for Moore will be to get more consistent and efficient. I'm not sure he really needs to have a bigger role on next year's team for them to be successful. His experience and leadership could be huge though and it will interesting to see how Coach manages that. Does Moore come off the bench as a sixth man, maybe being in the runner for sixth man of the year? Or does he start, forcing Williams or someone else to the bench? Moore seems pretty close to his ceiling to me and could maybe get to 3rd team All-ACC if things play out right for him.

I think if we look at Wendell's advanced stats, his improvement from 2020 to 2021 can be seen much more clearly:

Year	eFG	FTR	OR%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%	Usage	oRtg	PER
2020	42.9%	43.5%	7.4%	11.7%	12.6%	24.7%	2.0%	0.9%	19.2%	95.0	11.7
2021	47.1%	22.3%	5.0%	15.2%	16.6%	17.4%	2.5%	0.6%	20.7%	103.5	15.2

And if you take into account his early season struggles by looking at his conference games only, his improvement is even more marked.

CONFERENCE GAMES ONLY

Year	eFG	FTR	OR%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%	Usage	oRtg	PER
2020	43.2%	59.3%	5.9%	13.1%	11.0%	24.1%	1.2%	1.2%	17.9%	100.2	12.3
2021	50.6%	22.6%	5.4%	16.6%	17.0%	14.6%	2.5%	0.8%	20.5%	111.8	18.4

Other than free throw rate (and I have no idea what's up with that), Wendell has been a much better player in 2021 than he was in 2020, pretty much across the board. If he makes the same rate of improvement next season, Duke will be in very good shape.

[Nugget]

Other than free throw rate (and I have no idea what's up with that), Wendell has been a much better player in 2021 than he was in 2020, pretty much across the board. If he makes the same rate of improvement next season, Duke will be in very good shape.

I'll guess that it was because Tre Jones and Vernon Carey were more effective facilitators/creators/passers than this year's guards and Matthew Hurt, so Wendell got the ball in position to be fouled more often last year than this?

[Kedsy]

I'll guess that it was because Tre Jones and Vernon Carey were more effective facilitators/creators/passers than this year's guards and Matthew Hurt, so Wendell got the ball in position to be fouled more often last year than this?

That may have had something to do with it. Another contributor might have been that he took a lot more of his shots from three in 2021, and it's a lot harder to get fouled on a three point shot.

2020:
12.3% of Wendell's shot attempts were threes
16.0% of his shots in conference games were threes

2021:
35.4% of Wendell's shot attempts were threes
35.4% of his shots in conference games were threes

[Nugget]

That may have had something to do with it. Another contributor might have been that he took a lot more of his shots from three in 2021, and it's a lot harder to get fouled on a three point shot.

2020:
12.3% of Wendell's shot attempts were threes
16.0% of his shots in conference games were threes

2021:
35.4% of Wendell's shot attempts were threes
35.4% of his shots in conference games were threes

Much more persuasive. Data trumps the "feels."

[lotusland]

Speaking of that Junior it got me to thinking of what kind of progression can we expect from Moore for next year.

YEAR	GP	MIN	FG%	3P%	FT%	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
2020-21	24	27.6	41.7	30.1	84.8	4.8	2.7	0.2	1.2	2.4	2.0	9.7
2019-20	25	24.0	41.6	21.1	80.6	4.2	1.9	0.2	0.9	2.1	2.4	7.4

Moore increased his scoring by 2.3 points per game. Hard to see that increase much next year with Banchero and Griffin (maybe Keels) coming in and the continued growth of Steward and Williams. Any increase might be realized thru increased efficiency rather than increased usage.

Moore's FG% only increased by 0.1%, while his 3P% and FT% increased by 9% and 4.2% respectively. Kind of a mixed bag here. The FG% shows plateauing while the 3P% and FT% show growth. If Moore can get the FG% up significantly and the 3P% up a little bit, I'd be happy. This should be attainable with increased experience and more options on the offensive side. Moore should be able to pick his spots better and not feel like he has to force things.

Moore's rebounding increased by 0.6% which didn't feel that significant considering there was a huge need for rebounding on last year's team. I wouldn't expect him to increase much here next year with Griffin, Banchero, and Williams being better bets for collecting boards.

Moore's assist to turnover ratio went from 1.9:2.4 to 2.7:2.0. Headed in the right direction and with more experience and good options for easy buckets that ratio should get even better.

Moore's blocks per, steal per, and fouling per seem to have plateaued out.

I think the biggest thing for Moore will be to get more consistent and efficient. I'm not sure he really needs to have a bigger role on next year's team for them to be successful. His experience and leadership could be huge though and it will interesting to see how Coach manages that. Does Moore come off the bench as a sixth man, maybe being in the runner for sixth man of the year? Or does he start, forcing Williams or someone else to the bench? Moore seems pretty close to his ceiling to me and could maybe get to 3rd team All-ACC if things play out right for him.

I hope Moore’s most significant improvement in on D. Not because he’s a bad defender but team D was average at best this year and losing JGold is going to hurt.

[SkyBrickey]

Speaking of that Junior it got me to thinking of what kind of progression can we expect from Moore for next year.

YEAR	GP	MIN	FG%	3P%	FT%	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
2020-21	24	27.6	41.7	30.1	84.8	4.8	2.7	0.2	1.2	2.4	2.0	9.7
2019-20	25	24.0	41.6	21.1	80.6	4.2	1.9	0.2	0.9	2.1	2.4	7.4

Moore increased his scoring by 2.3 points per game. Hard to see that increase much next year with Banchero and Griffin (maybe Keels) coming in and the continued growth of Steward and Williams. Any increase might be realized thru increased efficiency rather than increased usage.

Moore's FG% only increased by 0.1%, while his 3P% and FT% increased by 9% and 4.2% respectively. Kind of a mixed bag here. The FG% shows plateauing while the 3P% and FT% show growth. If Moore can get the FG% up significantly and the 3P% up a little bit, I'd be happy. This should be attainable with increased experience and more options on the offensive side. Moore should be able to pick his spots better and not feel like he has to force things.

Moore's rebounding increased by 0.6% which didn't feel that significant considering there was a huge need for rebounding on last year's team. I wouldn't expect him to increase much here next year with Griffin, Banchero, and Williams being better bets for collecting boards.

Moore's assist to turnover ratio went from 1.9:2.4 to 2.7:2.0. Headed in the right direction and with more experience and good options for easy buckets that ratio should get even better.

Moore's blocks per, steal per, and fouling per seem to have plateaued out.

I think the biggest thing for Moore will be to get more consistent and efficient. I'm not sure he really needs to have a bigger role on next year's team for them to be successful. His experience and leadership could be huge though and it will interesting to see how Coach manages that. Does Moore come off the bench as a sixth man, maybe being in the runner for sixth man of the year? Or does he start, forcing Williams or someone else to the bench? Moore seems pretty close to his ceiling to me and could maybe get to 3rd team All-ACC if things play out right for him.

I still hold out hope that Wendell can have a Chris Carrawell like breakout senior year. I know his adjusted per-40 stats are tracking behind CWell at this age but he’s also been forced to carry a greater load on weaker teams. If he keeps developing, possibly first or second team ACC his senior year and a solid second round draft pick?

Oh...and with at least one Natty on his resume.

[DukieInBrasil]

Speaking of that Junior it got me to thinking of what kind of progression can we expect from Moore for next year.


Moore increased his scoring by 2.3 points per game. Hard to see that increase much next year with Banchero and Griffin (maybe Keels) coming in and the continued growth of Steward and Williams. Any increase might be realized thru increased efficiency rather than increased usage.

Moore's FG% only increased by 0.1%, while his 3P% and FT% increased by 9% and 4.2% respectively. Kind of a mixed bag here. The FG% shows plateauing while the 3P% and FT% show growth. If Moore can get the FG% up significantly and the 3P% up a little bit, I'd be happy. This should be attainable with increased experience and more options on the offensive side. Moore should be able to pick his spots better and not feel like he has to force things.

Moore's rebounding increased by 0.6% which didn't feel that significant considering there was a huge need for rebounding on last year's team. I wouldn't expect him to increase much here next year with Griffin, Banchero, and Williams being better bets for collecting boards.

Moore's assist to turnover ratio went from 1.9:2.4 to 2.7:2.0. Headed in the right direction and with more experience and good options for easy buckets that ratio should get even better.

Moore's blocks per, steal per, and fouling per seem to have plateaued out.

I think the biggest thing for Moore will be to get more consistent and efficient. I'm not sure he really needs to have a bigger role on next year's team for them to be successful. His experience and leadership could be huge though and it will interesting to see how Coach manages that. Does Moore come off the bench as a sixth man, maybe being in the runner for sixth man of the year? Or does he start, forcing Williams or someone else to the bench? Moore seems pretty close to his ceiling to me and could maybe get to 3rd team All-ACC if things play out right for him.

seems to me that improving his FT% by over 4%, when starting at 80%, is not a sign of plateauing.
also seems to me that if he's close to his ceiling, then 3rd team All-ACC is out of the question. Even with linear growth in bulk stats (which are what media selectors go by), i can't see Wendell on any All-ACC team. If Wendell improves enough by his Sr. year to be a 3rd teamer, that will be a very good thing for Duke.

I still hold out hope that Wendell can have a Chris Carrawell like breakout senior year. I know his adjusted per-40 stats are tracking behind CWell at this age but he’s also been forced to carry a greater load on weaker teams. If he keeps developing, possibly first or second team ACC his senior year and a solid second round draft pick?
Oh...and with at least one Natty on his resume.

Interesting that you chose C-Well as your example: he was ACC POY as a Sr., got drafted and didn't make the team and never played in the NBA. Maybe if he had gotten drafted by some team other than the Twin Towers-era Spurs he might have gotten a cup of coffee. Unless Moore develops into a guy who is really elite at something i don't think the NBA is in his future. So far he's shown that he's an above-average defender, a very good FT shooter, a mediocre ball-handler, a poor decision maker withe ball, a below-average 3pt shooter, and a below-average shooter from 2. It's hard for me to see how he gets to the NBA with that skill set. That doesn't mean he can't improve in all of those areas and become a very good college player, maybe even make himself legendary at Duke (he already has the put-back game-winner vs UNCheaters). Wendell still has a lot of story to write in his career.

[ElliottHoo]

Interesting that you chose C-Well as your example: he was ACC POY as a Sr., got drafted and didn't make the team and never played in the NBA. Maybe if he had gotten drafted by some team other than the Twin Towers-era Spurs he might have gotten a cup of coffee.

That's one of the weird quirks of the NBA these days. Being a second round draft pick is, for a lot of guys, a dream come true. You get to hear an NBA team announce your name to the world as someone the specifically want.

But in reality, being a 2nd round pick sucks. Ok, if you're an early 2nd round pick and get a 2-year contract at the NBA minimum (like 900k/year?) then its fine. You're basically a first round pick that happened a little late. But for most second round picks, especially the later picks, you're extremely likely to end up in the G-league (or sent abroad somewhere. Devon Hall was a 2nd round pick for UVA a few years ago and ended up playing in New Zealand for some reason) with a 2-way contract. Which is... fine. You'll get a couple weeks in the NBA and maybe play a few minutes if you're lucky, and probably make 150k/year. Its not great, but you're within striking distance of the NBA.

The reason being a 2nd round pick is a problem is because you're tied to a single team. Sure, its a team that picked you, but they could have picked you for any number of reasons that aren't optimal for your career. Maybe they're a team that isn't great at player development or scouting. Maybe they're concerned someone is injury prone and are just keeping you for a year or two as an insurance policy. I grew up in Sacramento and have rooted for them the entirety of the time they've been there. So I know what I'm talking about when I say it breaks my heart to see a player I like get drafted by the Kings. Because that's an organization that literally does nothing well. If they'd drafted Zion they'd have found a way to mis-use him (maybe force him to be a pass-first point foward), be publicly disappointed in the results, and after damaging his confidence for a few years trade him away to a team where he doesn't fit.

If you're good enough to get on teams' radar, but aren't drafted, you can now think about which teams are good at development, which teams have organizational needs you can fill, or even opportunistically note which teams have had injuries lately. You then make a list and go talk to whoever you want. Sure, your dream team (whoever it is) probably won't work out, but there are many, many other teams all with various needs. The odds are pretty good that you'll find *someone* that'll see your potential and give you a deal, and you're free to avoid the bad teams where you'd get buried and misused.

[Bluedog]

That's one of the weird quirks of the NBA these days. Being a second round draft pick is, for a lot of guys, a dream come true. You get to hear an NBA team announce your name to the world as someone the specifically want.

But in reality, being a 2nd round pick sucks. Ok, if you're an early 2nd round pick and get a 2-year contract at the NBA minimum (like 900k/year?) then its fine. You're basically a first round pick that happened a little late. But for most second round picks, especially the later picks, you're extremely likely to end up in the G-league (or sent abroad somewhere. Devon Hall was a 2nd round pick for UVA a few years ago and ended up playing in New Zealand for some reason) with a 2-way contract. Which is... fine. You'll get a couple weeks in the NBA and maybe play a few minutes if you're lucky, and probably make 150k/year. Its not great, but you're within striking distance of the NBA.

The reason being a 2nd round pick is a problem is because you're tied to a single team. Sure, its a team that picked you, but they could have picked you for any number of reasons that aren't optimal for your career. Maybe they're a team that isn't great at player development or scouting. Maybe they're concerned someone is injury prone and are just keeping you for a year or two as an insurance policy. I grew up in Sacramento and have rooted for them the entirety of the time they've been there. So I know what I'm talking about when I say it breaks my heart to see a player I like get drafted by the Kings. Because that's an organization that literally does nothing well. If they'd drafted Zion they'd have found a way to mis-use him (maybe force him to be a pass-first point foward), be publicly disappointed in the results, and after damaging his confidence for a few years trade him away to a team where he doesn't fit.

If you're good enough to get on teams' radar, but aren't drafted, you can now think about which teams are good at development, which teams have organizational needs you can fill, or even opportunistically note which teams have had injuries lately. You then make a list and go talk to whoever you want. Sure, your dream team (whoever it is) probably won't work out, but there are many, many other teams all with various needs. The odds are pretty good that you'll find *someone* that'll see your potential and give you a deal, and you're free to avoid the bad teams where you'd get buried and misused.

My understanding is the NBA is making the 2-way contract more flexible, more lucractive, and more prevelant for players. Don't know if that will change anything you stated above, but just thought I'd point out there are some changes afoot that could impact things.

[gep]

...

If you're good enough to get on teams' radar, but aren't drafted, you can now think about which teams are good at development, which teams have organizational needs you can fill, or even opportunistically note which teams have had injuries lately. You then make a list and go talk to whoever you want. Sure, your dream team (whoever it is) probably won't work out, but there are many, many other teams all with various needs. The odds are pretty good that you'll find *someone* that'll see your potential and give you a deal, and you're free to avoid the bad teams where you'd get buried and misused.

This is my thought too. I've heard that for fringe NFL players, it may be better to not get drafted than to get drafted in the last round. Teams there are just looking to use their picks at that point. But as undrafted, you can go looking for the best fit. Gotta work for NBA too...

[jv001]

I still hold out hope that Wendell can have a Chris Carrawell like breakout senior year. I know his adjusted per-40 stats are tracking behind CWell at this age but he’s also been forced to carry a greater load on weaker teams. If he keeps developing, possibly first or second team ACC his senior year and a solid second round draft pick?

Oh...and with at least one Natty on his resume.

I would like to see Wendell get stronger(weights?) and improve his quickness(first step). Of course improving his 3 point shot and make better decisions with the ball are no brainers. If we get Keels and Wendell doesn't improve, his minutes may go down next season. All depending on how well Keels plays.

GoDuke!

[Saratoga2]

I would like to see Wendell get stronger(weights?) and improve his quickness(first step). Of course improving his 3 point shot and make better decisions with the ball are no brainers. If we get Keels and Wendell doesn't improve, his minutes may go down next season. All depending on how well Keels plays.

GoDuke!

I would only expect marginal improvement from Wendell with his handle and decision making. If he can be more vocal and demonstrate leadership qualities, that coulold help the team.

[BlueDevilStop]

For anyone interested - wrote about how Banchero, Griffin, and Keels are not typical Freshmen in the sense that they are very physically imposing. All three possess immense positional size and with that Duke can employ some intimidating lineups next season.

https://www.bluedevilstop.com/paolo-...ical-freshmen/

[TruBlu]

For anyone interested - wrote about how Banchero, Griffin, and Keels are not typical Freshmen in the sense that they are very physically imposing. All three possess immense positional size and with that Duke can employ some intimidating lineups next season.

https://www.bluedevilstop.com/paolo-...ical-freshmen/

So we won’t be “knocked back” next year? I hope so. That phrase really got annoying last year.

[UrinalCake]

So we won’t be “knocked back” next year? I hope so. That phrase really got annoying last year.

Don't worry, we'll still hear plenty about how "young" we are after losses.

[RetireVergaJersey]

I would like to see Moore be at the top of FT attempts in the conference. He is best when he operates near the basket. Hope to see him drive more and shoot less 3s