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  1. #61
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Im going to ignore that last sentence because the chances of Matt Hurt becoming “the next” greatest 15 or 20 players of all time is pretty much zero. Bird was so much more than a shooter.

    But the thing about Hurt is that he’s actually not a guy you have to give some years to in order to see if he develops. You already know exactly what he is. A long stretch 4 with a deadly shooting stroke, who is subpar at pretty much everything else. That’s what youre getting out of him this year, next year, and any other year. Sure he could put on some more weight and maybe become a little more effective inside, but that’s never going to be his game. He is what he is and as a GM either you think that’s good enough to stick in the league and help you, or you don’t.
    My only quibble with this post is that Hurt isn’t a “long stretch 4” at the NBA level. He is a “below-average length stretch 4”. But beyond that, I more or less agree. Hurt is much closer to his fully-realized ceiling than Williams.

  2. #62

    Models for Successful Teams

    At least for the ACC, we have two tourney teams left who have multiple huge front court players and substitute them a lot to wear the other team down. UNC plays at a fast pace and FSU now has Scottie Barnes, a first rank freshman. They can sustain a physical play without much fear of foul trouble.

    UVA is different in that they play at a slow pace and work for their best shot. With their pack line, they are hoping to be more efficient than their opponent. I don't have an opinion on GT.

    Are there any takeaways for the Duke coaching staff that would guide recruiting or style of play going forward? Chances are the three teams mentioned will continue with their style of play and recruiting going forward.

    I won't bold if it bothers people but will increase the size of the font

  3. #63
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York, NY
    Imho, Hurt would crush Bird in a game of 1 on 1 and be much more valuable in a regulation game in which both played 40 minutes. No question. Of course, while I like sci fi as much as the next guy, games are played now, and I’m factoring in that Bird is 44 years older and has a bad back.

    Despite being clearly better than Bird, Hurt doesn’t strike me as ready to be drafted. Williams, despite several excellent moments, seems less ready. I guess a GM might have the imagination to see how they might develop over the next few years, but it’d be a lot easier with an additional year of championship level play.

    I guess anybody could transfer, and it’s hard to calculate happiness in players while they’re sweating in a game, but it strikes me that Goldwire would want to stay. I guess he might be able to play pro overseas, though that seems unlikely, but he might be better suited for coaching (isn’t that the standard trajectory for all of K’s point guards?). If that’s his goal, why not stay an additional year, go to Coach K grad school, and lead an adorable bunch of ragamuffin underdogs to a NC?

  4. #64
    I like the upside optimism on Roach. Was reminded recently that he had a season ending injury his junior year of high school that dropped him in the rankings and very likely slowed his development. A Quinn Cook trajectory?

    I expect us to bring in a guard transfer. And I hope anyone considering transferring looks ahead one more year when there will be lots of minutes available. I’m excited to see Roach, Steward, Brakefield and Moore all playing together as juniors.

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by Saratoga2 View Post
    At least for the ACC, we have two tourney teams left who have multiple huge front court players and substitute them a lot to wear the other team down. UNC plays at a fast pace and FSU now has Scottie Barnes, a first rank freshman. They can sustain a physical play without much fear of foul trouble.

    UVA is different in that they play at a slow pace and work for their best shot. With their pack line, they are hoping to be more efficient than their opponent. I don't have an opinion on GT.

    Are there any takeaways for the Duke coaching staff that would guide recruiting or style of play going forward? Chances are the three teams mentioned will continue with their style of play and recruiting going forward.

    I won't bold if it bothers people but will increase the size of the font
    I have no quarrel with the boldface, but for your own information you should know that your post looks like you have changed the font to actually be smaller on my mobile screen.

  6. #66
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post

    Mark Williams: 24.6 mpg, 13.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.9 bpg, 1.2 spg, 71.2 fg%, 56.3 ft%.

    Matthew Hurt: 32.9 mpg, 19.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 60.4 fg% (68.4 2pt%), 51.0 3pt%, 75.0 ft%.

    Wendell Moore: 31.0 mpg, 9.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.0 apg, 2.6 topg, 1.8 spg, 42.1 fg% (50.0 2pt%), 28.6 3pt%, 86.7 ft%.

    DJ Steward: 31.1 mpg, 12.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.7 topg, 1.0 spg, 41.3 fg% (50.0 2pt%), 32.0 3pt%, 73.7 ft%.

    Jeremy Roach: 26.4 mpg, 7.0 ppg, 2.8 apg, 2.1 rpg, 1.7 topg, 45.1 fg% (52.4 2pt%), 40.0 3pt%, 62.5 ft%.

    Jordan Goldwire: 26.9 mpg, 4.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.9 spg, 1.4 topg, 31.8 fg% (28.6 2pt%), 34.8 3pt%, 60.0 ft%.

    Jaemyn Brakefield: 12.9 mpg, 3.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 38.9 fg% (50.0 2pt%), 21.4 3pt%, 33.3 ft%.

    Joey Baker: 10.6 mpg, 3.4 ppg, 35.0 3pt%.

    Henry Coleman: 6.3 mpg, 1.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 0.6 bpg, 41.7 fg%, 0.0 ft%.

    Patrick Tapé: .
    I can't disagree with any of CDu's takes on the Duke players. So, I'll just add to his great post.

    Mark Williams, I so hope we see him in a Duke uniform for at least 1 more season. He has the potential to be a very special player. Add some weight and improve the FT shooting young man.
    he ne
    Matthew Hurt. I'm pretty sure Matt is leaving to pursue his dream of playing in the NBA. Thanks for a great season and I wish you could have played in an ACCT game.

    Wendell Moore, work on his handle and get your three pointer up to at least 35%. The FT shooting says Wendell has it in him.

    DJ Steward. Love the way he plays the game and love that smile. Improve the shooting numbers, ball distribution and get stronger.

    Jeremy Roach. His 3 point shooting improved but he wasn't consistent. Jeremy needs to work on his vision(passing), limit his fouling and get stronger(see DJ). From CDu's stats, Roach and DJ had identical assist to turnover numbers in the last 9 games. Those numbers need improvement.

    Jordan Goldwire. I think it's 50-50 on whether Goldy returns. If he does improvement is needed on his 2 point shooting. Finish stronger at the rim and develop a floater.

    Jaemyn Brakefield. We were fooled by Jaemyn's great 3 point shooting in an early game. He looks like he needs to turn some of his weight into to muscle. He could be a valuable player off the bench if he can improve his shooting. Please work on those FTs.

    Joey Baker. It seemed like Joey worked so hard on his defense that he forgot how valuable he could be as a spot up shooter. He did get better as the season wore on. Come in next year looking for your shot and continue to work on the defense.

    Henry Coleman III. The kid is a stud and he plays good defense. However Henry needs a lot of work on his offense. Like Jaemyn he really needs work on those FTs.

    I'm excited about next season and hope there's no interruptions from Covid.

    GoDuke!

    Patrick Tapé. I don't see Patrick getting many minutes if he returns and I hope his play doesn't scare Coach K off pursuing a transfer this offseason. Even in a down year for ACC teams, he was over matched in conference play.

  7. #67
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    I like the upside optimism on Roach. Was reminded recently that he had a season ending injury his junior year of high school that dropped him in the rankings and very likely slowed his development. A Quinn Cook trajectory?
    Despite being definitively one of the Roach optimists, I must point out that the Quinn Cook comp doesn't hold much water with me.

    For one thing, theCook was hurt as a high school senior, with more of a nagging injury than a completely debilitating one. Roach was injured early in his junior year with the ACL tear, and came back healthy as a senior.

    For another, Cook was pretty comparable as a freshman and a sophomore. His per-minute stats and efficiency were very comparable between his freshman and sophomore years. It's just that he became a starter as a sophomore after playing just 10-15 mpg as a freshman. He just had issues breaking into the rotation with Austin Rivers, Seth Curry, and Andre Dawkins in front of him as offensive-minded, defensively-deficient guards/wings. In Cook's sophomore year, Rivers was in the NBA and Dawkins was taking a personal year, and the only addition was a more defensive-minded guard. So Cook took the reins. As mentioned, his per-minute stats were strikingly similar between his freshman and sophomore years.

    And stylistically, they are just very different. Cook was always a terrific ballhandler and passer. His A/TO ratio as a freshman would have at the time set the Duke record had he played enough (3.5). Roach is more of an athlete at PG than a playmaker for others.

    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    I expect us to bring in a guard transfer. And I hope anyone considering transferring looks ahead one more year when there will be lots of minutes available. I’m excited to see Roach, Steward, Brakefield and Moore all playing together as juniors.
    I do expect we will have another guard/wing on the roster. I don't know if it will be an impact player or not, but whether it is Goldwire, a developmental recruit, or a transfer, I do think we'll have one more guy in the mix. That said, I'm not sure I see there being a huge number of (if any) additional backcourt minutes available for the 2022-23 season if Roach and Steward are back as juniors AND Moore is back as a senior. Not to mention whatever incoming freshmen we get for that class. Of course, it's quite possible that any of those 3 returnees is not here for the 2022-23 season, in which case there should be additional minutes available.

  8. #68
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I do expect we will have another guard/wing on the roster. I don't know if it will be an impact player or not, but whether it is Goldwire, a developmental recruit, or a transfer, I do think we'll have one more guy in the mix. That said, I'm not sure I see there being a huge number of (if any) additional backcourt minutes available for the 2022-23 season if Roach and Steward are back as juniors AND Moore is back as a senior. Not to mention whatever incoming freshmen we get for that class. Of course, it's quite possible that any of those 3 returnees is not here for the 2022-23 season, in which case there should be additional minutes available.
    The roster alignment for 21-22 doesn't bother me much, as long as the following is true:

    -Roach stays
    -Steward stays
    -Williams stays
    -Brakefield stays
    -Moore stays
    -Banchero comes (and doesn't go G League)
    -Griffin comes (and doesn't go G League)

    All of these are fairly high probability. As for Goldwire, Baker, Hurt, and Coleman, I'm not too sure where I stand or what I think will happen.

    -Goldwire: he will not play in the NBA. He may play overseas, but he's not gonna be like Langdon or other Duke players who starred in the Euro League (or whatever it's called). He may want to get started on a non-basketball career. Or he may want to come back. I would love Goldwire as a situational player who can lead the defense and score opportunistically (kinda like this year!). He's been a joy to watch develop

    -Baker: Not a good year for him. Offensively, he hesitates a lot. Defensively, he tries but doesn't succeed. He's a good shooter and by all means a locker room guy, but I'm not sure if he'll get playing time on next year's team.

    -Hurt: by all means, he should leave. But he'll be a 2nd round pick at best and I'm not sure the NBA will be interested in developing his skillset. He can't do anything but score; he's an underwhelming rebounder, not a playmaker, and an awful defender. I expect him to go, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him come back. If he comes back, oh boy. This may be one of the best frontcourts in Duke history. And, for the record, I'd love him to come back.

    -Coleman: with all the bigs we have next year, I just don't see Coleman adding much value.


    That core listed above is a top 5 team. With Goldwire, Baker, and Coleman, we're talking preseason top 2/3. With Hurt? Top 1.

    A grad transfer, Keels, Baldwin, etc would be nice. But they aren't necessary, especially with the experience and talent we have (all those sophomores! My goodness, I can't remember when we had at least 3 sophomores come back who start!).
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  9. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    Imho, Hurt would crush Bird in a game of 1 on 1 and be much more valuable in a regulation game in which both played 40 minutes. No question. Of course, while I like sci fi as much as the next guy, games are played now, and I’m factoring in that Bird is 44 years older and has a bad back.
    Whew! I was picking up the phone to call 9-1-1 for you when I came to your last sentence about Larry Legend's age in your hypothetical matchup.

  10. #70
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    The roster alignment for 21-22 doesn't bother me much, as long as the following is true:

    -Roach stays
    -Steward stays
    -Williams stays
    -Brakefield stays
    -Moore stays
    -Banchero comes (and doesn't go G League)
    -Griffin comes (and doesn't go G League)

    That core listed above is a top 5 team. With Goldwire, Baker, and Coleman, we're talking preseason top 2/3. With Hurt? Top 1.

    A grad transfer, Keels, Baldwin, etc would be nice. But they aren't necessary, especially with the experience and talent we have (all those sophomores! My goodness, I can't remember when we had at least 3 sophomores come back who start!).
    I agree. I don't think adding another guard is a need, more of a nice to have. But if the group above stays/comes, we should be VERY good next year. Anything on top of that group is icing on a pretty yummy cake.

    Your last sentence is such a key point. In addition to adding two top-10 recruits (something we haven't quite managed the last 2 years), next year's team has the potential to be one of the most experienced team we have had in a long time. Four guys with over 600 minutes played in their careers (five if Goldwire returns), another 2 with over 250 minutes played. The returning number of minutes (career) from our recruited players would be 4,000 without Goldwire (or a transfer) and 5,902 with Goldwire (or 4,000 plus whatever minutes the transfer brings).

    Compare that with this season, where we had 2,810 returning minutes, from just 4 players, and didn't have as much top-end talent as well. Our experience level would be more in line with the 2019-20 team, but we'd have more top-end talent to go with that experience. It would be less top-loaded than the 2019 and 2018 teams, but with much more experience.

  11. #71
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    The roster alignment for 21-22 doesn't bother me much, as long as the following is true:

    -Roach stays
    -Steward stays
    -Williams stays
    -Brakefield stays
    -Moore stays
    -Banchero comes (and doesn't go G League)
    -Griffin comes (and doesn't go G League)

    -Coleman: with all the bigs we have next year, I just don't see Coleman adding much value.

    That core listed above is a top 5 team. With Goldwire, Baker, and Coleman, we're talking preseason top 2/3. With Hurt? Top 1.
    I mostly agree with the spirit of fdd’s post, but disagree with a couple of specifics.

    I’d say we’re likely to have a core 6 rather than 7, all 6 of whom will play 30+ minutes in conference play. The bench will probably be Coleman, Brakefield, Baker, and possibly a transfer.

    I don’t agree we’ll have an excess of bigs. I’d see Brakefield as a 3/4 who might get a few minutes as backup to Banchero. Coleman, however, is the only actual “big” off bench, and might offer 8-12 minutes in relief of Williams. Yes, Banchero plays 5 if Duke goes small, but with Williams’s wonderful development this season, I wouldn’t anticipate long stretches of small-ball. I’d anticipate some effective high-low with Williams and Banchero, each in either spot.

    Absent Goldwire’s return or any additional player, we’d have only 9, but a talented, somewhat experienced 9. I’d guess in those circumstances that any 2 of the bench — Coleman, Baker, Brakefield — would each play 7-10 minutes in close games. We’ll have a Constant Six, with some bench support.

    Absent Goldwire or a promising transfer, I’d guess we’ll be slightly under-rated as 10-12 preseason. With Goldwire or promising transfer, top 8-10. With Hurt 1-3.

  12. #72
    Realized the point I made earlier may have been confusing. I hope Brakefield and Moore, if they have thoughts of transferring, can look beyond next year and see that they will have huge opportunities for minutes as juniors. And that’s not to say they won’t also have key roles next year as backups.

  13. #73
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    Realized the point I made earlier may have been confusing. I hope Brakefield and Moore, if they have thoughts of transferring, can look beyond next year and see that they will have huge opportunities for minutes as juniors. And that’s not to say they won’t also have key roles next year as backups.
    Are we assuming both want to be 4 year guys?

  14. #74
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    Realized the point I made earlier may have been confusing. I hope Brakefield and Moore, if they have thoughts of transferring, can look beyond next year and see that they will have huge opportunities for minutes as juniors. And that’s not to say they won’t also have key roles next year as backups.
    I could see Brakefield transferring; his minutes were sporadic and he might see that there's a glut at his position next year.

    Moore? No way. He's not going anywhere.

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by FerryFor50 View Post
    I could see Brakefield transferring; his minutes were sporadic and he might see that there's a glut at his position next year.

    Moore? No way. He's not going anywhere.
    I should add that I also don't think Moore is going anywhere (as a transfer, he could declare for the draft).

  16. #76
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    Realized the point I made earlier may have been confusing. I hope Brakefield and Moore, if they have thoughts of transferring, can look beyond next year and see that they will have huge opportunities for minutes as juniors. And that’s not to say they won’t also have key roles next year as backups.
    I don't know that this made things much less confusing .

    Moore and Brakefield aren't in the same class, so one would be a junior and the other a sophomore in 2022-23 (assuming all players get the free year this year, as I believe is the case). Or senior in Moore's case and junior in Brakefield's.

  17. #77
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    That core listed above is a top 5 team. With Goldwire, Baker, and Coleman, we're talking preseason top 2/3. With Hurt? Top 1.
    All of these are overestimates. I don't think we're going to have a core that missed the NCAA tournament be ranked preseason #1, and a non-tournament team that loses its best player isn't going to be ranked in the top 3. We have to think about what other teams do too. For example, Kansas looks like the might not lose that many players, and starts from a better place than us.

    I'm optimistic we'll be very good next year as long as Williams stays, but we're going to need to earn these kinds of high rankings sometime after the preseason.

  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    (all those sophomores! My goodness, I can't remember when we had at least 3 sophomores come back who start!).
    In 2016-17, our starters included Luke Kennard (SO), Grayson Allen (JR), Amile Jefferson (5th-yr SR), and Matt Jones (SR).

  19. #79
    Have high hopes for next season.

    Considering the Sophomore leaps we see so often from Duke players, its safe to assume the collective leap from the Sophomore group next season will be a large one. The most talented Sophomores as a whole Duke has had in quite some time.

    Mark Williams and Paolo Banchero are going to terrorize teams in the front court. Like the combination of high end NBA type talent in Banchero and Griffin mixed in with the returnees.

  20. #80
    I posted above (#71) my expectation of a Constant Six by conference play. It would be terribly deflating if for any reason any of those 6 guys isn’t here next season. I think the odds are good, but not 100%, that they’ll all be here.

    Apparently there will be lots of movement by CBB players over the summer, and I guess I buy the argument that Krzyzewski will look to add a transfer. I don’t see the need for a marginal role player (5-10 mpg), but a 7th near-starter would be a different proposition.

    As would Goldwire’s return, which would be wonderful. I doubt the staff — nor anyone on EK, and certainly not I — foresaw how valuable he’d become. He’d be a preseason candidate for ACC DPOY and national D first team. His is an inspiring Duke bball story. His return would make for a Constant Seven.

    It would surely also push both Baker and Brakefield to the end of the bench. As I posted earlier, I expect Coleman will get some minutes as Williams’s backup. But neither Baker nor Brakefield is likely to break into the Constant Six, much less a Constant Seven.

    So where does that leave Baker and Brakefield? I hope thinking about improving their handles enough to force K to give them a few more minutes. And to thinking about becoming wing starters in the 2022-23 season, by which time at least 2 of Griffin, Steward, and Moore will likely be gone.

    I’ve seen nothing in terms of attitude-on-the-bench to suggest that either Baker or Brakefield is unhappy. But absent unforeseen developments over the summer, they will neither start nor log major minutes next season.

    Baker’s has been a disappointing story. That he can get a 5th year in 2022-23 would “make up” for the burned-redshirt year. If he hopes to play after Duke, he must work over and over on his handle, readiness to shoot, footwork. Dramatic improvement in those areas even this summer would surely give him additional minutes in 2021-22. I hope he loves Duke, his teammates, the staff, his fellow students, and wants to make his mark on championship Duke teams.

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