This Week in the ACC - ACC Tournament

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Which is why I was disputing it three/four weeks ago when people were making guarantees about Duke, e.g., 5-1 = outcome A, 4-2 = outcome B &c. Until you get to conference tourney week, those predictions are completely meaningless unless you consider a wide range of teams, roughly up to the 8-seed/9-seed tier, and down through a next-next and maybe next-next-next four out. Duke doesn't operate in a vacuum just because they're called Duke.

I agree with your bigger point - nothing happens in a vacuum, and there's not really "locks" early on [restrains himself from yet another Lunardi rant] but I do think you are incorrect about a few weeks ago. Had we won the games in front of us, we would have been ranked in the top 25 and even with a COVID shortened tournament, our biggest concern would be if we would be available to okay, not if we would be selected.

In fact, consider that for a moment - what if we were in a six game win streak when our season got shut down - that would feel infinitely worse, I suspect.

[CDu]

I agree with your bigger point - nothing happens in a vacuum, and there's not really "locks" early on [restrains himself from yet another Lunardi rant] but I do think you are incorrect about a few weeks ago. Had we won the games in front of us, we would have been ranked in the top 25 and even with a COVID shortened tournament, our biggest concern would be if we would be available to okay, not if we would be selected.

In fact, consider that for a moment - what if we were in a six game win streak when our season got shut down - that would feel infinitely worse, I suspect.

Yeah, had we won our last six regular season games, we would have been in the 5/6 seed discussion. Had we won 5 of 6 to finish, we would be in the 8-9 range. And 4-2 would have been in the “need a deep ACC run/sweating it out” spot. Just like folks were saying.

No, one cannot say with certainty the exact seed. But we can get pretty close as we get towards the end of the season. There aren’t ever THAT many bid stealers in a season, so aside from the last 8 in and last 8 out, you can typically get a good feel for who is in and who is out over the last few weeks given particular scenarios.

And in Duke’s case it was especially easy to do it. We had such a backloaded schedule that winning would have given us a pretty darn good resume. The winning was the real question, snd unfortunately we came up just a whisker short in two key games. And as such, we are probably on the fringe of the “next four out”, around 6-10 spots outside the field.

[throatybeard]

Hindsight is fantastic. I'm far more concerned with the absolutely collosal disrespect towards all the other programs that it takes to make predictions as if Duke exists in a vacuum.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Hindsight is fantastic. I'm far more concerned with the absolutely collosal disrespect towards all the other programs that it takes to make predictions as if Duke exists in a vacuum.

You are making it sound like it was some sort of stretch to make those predictions. It really isn't. Duke would be comfortably in the field had those wins occured.

Is it hubris to say that a Duke team ranked, say, #23 ought to comfortably expect to be in the field of 68?

[Wahoo2000]

GT feels dangerous. VERY dangerous. I feel like the only thing that can stop them is (luckily, for the rest of the ACC) having Pastner as a HC. Lots of folks giving him some credit for the year they're having, and maybe you feel like you have to based on what we know about how the sport works... but I don't buy it. That guy is a "recruiter"/"salesman" type more than a coach and I've always felt extremely shoddy at tactics, prep, and in-game coaching. All Pastner hate aside, the talent they have is extremely underrated. When Alvarado has it going, he's the best guard in the ACC by a wide margin, IMO. Wright has been on fire in seemingly every phase of the game lately as well. You throw in the experience and chemistry their core seems to have (#4 nationally in experience and #10 in minutes continuity) and it just seems like a team built to win in the postseason... again, except that Pastner seems to NOT win in the postseason.

I'm thrilled to watch GT in the ACCT and NCAAs. I have a feeling when Pastner eventually gets fired or moves on, we'll look back at this year as his best at GT.

Breaking my arm patting myself on the back this AM rereading this from Monday. Tooting your own horn isn't always a good look, but in this case, I don't care since this was so spot on (and I'm confident my take on Pastner will play out equally accurately).

Now I really need to go eat some humble pie to bring myself back down to an acceptable level of humility.

Or maybe some apple pie.

mmmmmmmmm... pie.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Breaking my arm patting myself on the back this AM rereading this from Monday. Tooting your own horn isn't always a good look, but in this case, I don't care since this was so spot on (and I'm confident my take on Pastner will play out equally accurately).

Now I really need to go eat some humble pie to bring myself back down to an acceptable level of humility.

Or maybe some apple pie.

mmmmmmmmm... pie.

Pi Day post!

Here's to hoping your team is healthy and ready to go next week.

[CDu]

Hindsight is fantastic. I'm far more concerned with the absolutely collosal disrespect towards all the other programs that it takes to make predictions as if Duke exists in a vacuum.

It wasn’t hindsight. It was common sense. Had nothing to do with the letters on the front of the jersey and everything to do with the remaining schedule.

[ElliottHoo]

Ga Tech looked surprisingly fresh for playing their third game in three nights- oh wait.

Meh. They beat the teams in front of them, that’s all you can ask. FSU didn’t exactly have a grueling road to the championship game, either.

[dukelifer]

Meh. They beat the teams in front of them, that’s all you can ask. FSU didn’t exactly have a grueling road to the championship game, either.

Well FSU was a bucket away from going to overtime the night before - so not sure I would call it an easy road. That said both teams had a very unusual road to the championship game. The extra day of rest certainly helped a team that is not that deep.

[Wahoo2000]

Well FSU was a bucket away from going to overtime the night before - so not sure I would call it an easy road. That said both teams had a very unusual road to the championship game. The extra day of rest certainly helped a team that is not that deep.

Alvarado also banged his knee pretty badly in the Miami game. He was limping noticeably at the end. Not sure he would've been as effective without a days rest, or that GT could've put two performances in a row together like that (had they played UVA and FSU back to back).

They're still the champs - congrats to them.

[camion]

Pi Day post!

Here's to hoping your team is healthy and ready to go next week.

Would making a pi bet on pi day be irrational?


Asking for an e-friend.