MBB: Carolina 91, Duke 73 Post Game Thread

[azzefkram]

I got a sinking feeling the first time I laid eyes on our freshman guards in the first game of the year and I saw how small and physically immature they were.

It didn't hit me quite that early but it definitely started sinking in as the season wore on. uNC just hammered it home. uNC had 3 freshman physically ready for ACC level of play (Sharp, Love and Walton). Depending on how one evaluates Jalen, we had 1 or none. That's problematic for a team that has a high level of turnover.

[uh_no]

The last few games/losses, especially last night, made me realize how much we could've used Jalen Johnson.

This might be the hottest take...Maybe if we had a version of Jalen that matched the idol people have in their heads of him...but if you recall, the games we played with the real version of Jalen were not that good either.

[Kedsy]

In the last few games he played before he left, we were demonstrably worse with him on the floor.

Demonstrably worse? I'd be interested to hear how you could demonstrate that?

[dukelifer]

I know it's been discussed that Hurt's NBA stock may not rise any further if he stays for a 3rd year; but after watching the UNC game last night, it makes me wonder if Hurt should stay for a 3rd year and work on his toughness and physicality (and playing against physicality). After watching his play in recent games, I was on board with him leaving for the NBA after this season. However, seeing UNC successfully employ the same strategy against him for a second time in which they pressured him and played physically against him, it makes me wonder if he should stay to further develop. It felt like he wilted against that pressure for a second time. I don't see him getting drafted until the second round (if at all at this point); however, if he stayed and continued to work on strength and lateral movement, I feel strongly he will be drafted next year (and possibly be a first rounder, albeit late one). That said, maybe he can turn it around if it has great games in the ACCT (with possible rematches against Louisville and UNC, along with playing against an FSU frontline if the team were to advance that far).

He will very likely be a second rounder and that may be enough. Like Vernon, Cassius and Tre- he will learn in the G league. But as a Junior he is a second rounder with an outside chance to sneak into the first if Duke makes a deep NCAA run. It is a gamble. If he enjoys college life- sticking around will be fine. I think teams know what he can and cannot do.

[rsvman]

Demonstrably worse? I'd be interested to hear how you could demonstrate that?

It was demonstrated to us, right before our eyes. We don't need to demonstrate it again. The control was how the team played when he was on the bench.

[Kedsy]

It was demonstrated to us, right before our eyes. We don't need to demonstrate it again. The control was how the team played when he was on the bench.

From a plus/minus perspective (an admittedly flawed stat), the team had pretty similar results when he was in the game and not in the game, over Jalen Johnson's last six games with the team. Some games (e.g., 1st GaTech game; 1st UNC game) the team played a lot better when he was in and other games (e.g., 2nd ND game, Miami game), the team played a lot worse when he was in. Without analyzing who else was in with him and who was in the opposing lineup while he was in, I don't think the plus/minus data shows anything other than it was not obvious whether the team was better or worse or the same when he was on the floor. Nor does any other measurable that I can think of (not really even win/loss record: we were 6-7 with him; 5-4 without him (counting VaTech as without, since he only played four minutes)). In all the games we won without him, we shot really well from three and in all the games we lost without him, we shot really poorly from three. So unless there's some link between Jalen's presence and our other players' three-point shooting, I don't see any demonstrable difference. And unless your eyes can simultaneously process a lot more variables than mine can, your "demonstration" is basically just another version of the "Ewing Theory."

Jalen Johnson is a PF. We happen to have five other recruited scholarship players whose best position is PF, and the best of those was forced to play out of position at C when he and Jalen were both on the floor. For that reason alone, I didn't expect our team to be demonstrably worse without Jalen. But that's not the same as being demonstrably worse with him.

[Steven43]

It didn't hit me quite that early but it definitely started sinking in as the season wore on. uNC just hammered it home. uNC had 3 freshman physically ready for ACC level of play.

Interesting how you had the exact same typo twice in one sentence. I guess the uppercase feature on your typewriter doesn’t work with the letter “U”. 😉

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Interesting how you had the exact same typo twice in one sentence. I guess the uppercase feature on your typewriter doesn’t work with the letter “U”. 😉

Well, SOMETHING sure isn't working at that "u."

[Wander]

pushed 2016 from your memory? Just because they were an elite offense doesn't cover the fact that the defense was an utter train wreck. (2012 and 2014 were also worse, and similarly, had elite offensees that his duke team lacks)

I did remember those teams, but I think this year's defense is worse. The 2016 team's defensive efficiency stats were destroyed by horrible defensive rebounding, which yes, I understand is technically "defense" in advanced stats, but I view as not really "defense" when most people are casually talking about the term. 2012 and 2014 I think were better at guarding shots than this team. I agree none of these teams were good on defense.

Regardless, my general point is that our biggest weaknesses are guarding other players and drawing fouls, not the lack of having a go-to scorer (actually one of our few strengths, but we've had the misfortune of him being fouled out a few times recently at the end of close games).

[UrinalCake]

I wasn’t going to bring up Jalen, but I did have the thought after the GT game that he could have helped us. In the first GT game he had two huge and-one plays in crunch time which helped seal the win. The second time around we couldn’t hit a shot to close it out. Would he have made the difference? He did struggle in the first UNC game but I have to think that in a parallel universe where he stays on the team and works out whatever issues caused him to leave, he might have provided a spark and given us something. I do totally agree that Williams’s development would have been stunted had Johnson remained on the team.

As far as Hurt at the next level, I think if he did come back he would be playing at the 4 and some at the 3, given our roster makeup. Much like Singler it would be a chance to develop his perimeter game which I actually think would be more valuable. I don’t think he needs to bulk up and prove he can bang inside because that’s not what he would project to be at the next level. I remember Singler said he spent the summer before his junior year dribbling a tennis ball around campus to help develop his touch and handle.

[hustleplays]

It didn't hit me quite that early but it definitely started sinking in as the season wore on. uNC just hammered it home. uNC had 3 freshman physically ready for ACC level of play (Sharp, Love and Walton). Depending on how one evaluates Jalen, we had 1 or none. That's problematic for a team that has a high level of turnover.

Tommy and azzefkram, How true. Tommy, evidently, we just don't have the physical capabilities and the how-not-to-foul skills -- to be the dominators. As a long-time Duke b-ball fan, this was not easy to watch.

Those of you who are more much more informed, how do our top 2021 recruits fare, in addition to high talent, with respect to physicality?

[tommy]

All in all this was a welcome back to earth season in the middle of a panda bear panini with a bunch of freshmen most schools would have LOVED to have.

This was a learning year - for the whole program.

This year makes me even more excited for next year. The team will NOT want to taste this experience again.

Paulo and Griffin are MEN. They will NOT be bullied next year.

Coach K's exit interviews (in my mind):

Roach: Son you have got to hit the weights - come back ready to rumble. Learn to keep your head up so you can see the court.

Steward: You're almost there DJ - hit the weights and get you a few more moves.

Williams: I have really enjoyed your progress this year - only you know your ceiling but I can tell you its high. Free cheesesteaks for you all summer.

Moore: For the love of God please learn what a kick out is before three men converge upon you.

Baker: You're gonna be valuable to this team next year - next year you could have a Melchionni role on this team. Lateral quickness and strength should again be your focus this off season.

Coleman: Absolutely the best motor on this team - combine it with some footwork in the post and you will be a tough match up next year.

Brakefield: Consistency and playmaking will make you an invaluable player next year. Lean up and come back ready.

Goldwire: We'd love to have you back - especially with a mid range game.

Savarino: Well that was an interesting year now wasn't it grandson?

Hurt: We'd love to have you back but if the NBA wants you there's nothing we can do. But do you want the G-league or to play for a National Championship?

I like this end-of-season post and I will have items to add to it, but I prefer to wait until the season is actually over . . .

[UrinalCake]

It didn't hit me quite that early but it definitely started sinking in as the season wore on. uNC just hammered it home. uNC had 3 freshman physically ready for ACC level of play (Sharp, Love and Walton). Depending on how one evaluates Jalen, we had 1 or none. That's problematic for a team that has a high level of turnover.

If the only times you've watched UNC this season are their games against us, then your view of their team will be highly skewed. Those two games are probably the best they've played all season, except for the second half against FSU. Sharpe is a physical beast but looks nothing like an actual basketball player most of the time. Love has been up and down, and his shooting percentages are noticably lower than Roach's whose aren't great himself. Walton has been a nice surprise for them, filling the role of the shooter they desperately need but he doesn't really do much else besides shoot threes and his defense is pretty poor. I would also argue that Williams is more physically ready for ACC play than Kessler, though Kessler has had some good moments lately.

[azzefkram]

If the only times you've watched UNC this season are their games against us, then your view of their team will be highly skewed. Those two games are probably the best they've played all season, except for the second half against FSU. Sharpe is a physical beast but looks nothing like an actual basketball player most of the time. Love has been up and down, and his shooting percentages are noticably lower than Roach's whose aren't great himself. Walton has been a nice surprise for them, filling the role of the shooter they desperately need but he doesn't really do much else besides shoot threes and his defense is pretty poor. I would also argue that Williams is more physically ready for ACC play than Kessler, though Kessler has had some good moments lately.

It's not a question of skill but of physical readiness. Love might be a less talented player than Roach, but he is physically ready to play the game. He can get to the rim and finish through contact. He seems to have the strength and the quickness to defend the position. Sharpe is very raw but he is a more effective player at this point than either Henry, Jaemyn and possibly Mark. Kessler is a promising development big, but you can have one of those when you have Bacot, Brooks, Sharpe and break glass in case of emergency Manley on the roster. Walton may be a poor defender but so is DJ and Walton is actually performing the skill we all hoped DJ would.

I am not down on Duke's players. I think they have great potential, but we have a season of evidence that they are not ready for the physicality of ACC play. Maybe it's different in a non-COVID world but I doubt it. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say that the mental errors would be a lot less but the physical issues would largely be the same.

[dudog84]

It didn't hit me quite that early but it definitely started sinking in as the season wore on. uNC just hammered it home. uNC had 3 freshman physically ready for ACC level of play (Sharp, Love and Walton). Depending on how one evaluates Jalen, we had 1 or none. That's problematic for a team that has a high level of turnover.

Interesting how you had the exact same typo twice in one sentence. I guess the uppercase feature on your typewriter doesn’t work with the letter “U”. 😉

This is also my preferred usage when there is no way around referring to them. Others prefer UNCheat, etc.

But in my mind, they can no longer be considered a University.

[Kedsy]

Love might be a less talented player than Roach, but he is physically ready to play the game. He can get to the rim and finish through contact.

Caleb Love has only shot 45.5% on his shot attempts around the rim. Jeremy Roach has shot 61.1%.

I agree with UC that many of us have a highly skewed view of Love based on his inexplicable success against Duke. If the guy only makes 45% of his layup attempts, he probably doesn't "get to the rim and finish through contact" all that often.

[rsvman]

I just had this random thought cross my mind......


UNC might be a contender for the Elite Eight if they could just get the NCAA to agree that any team they face in the tournament has to wear Duke jerseys.




That is all.

[uh_no]

I just had this random thought cross my mind...


UNC might be a contender for the Elite Eight if they could just get the NCAA to agree that any team they face in the tournament has to wear Duke jerseys.




That is all.

elite 8 isn't out of reach with good matchup in the second round, and then hoping to get an upset-special from the other pod you're paired with. I'd put their chance in the teens, probably.

[budwom]

Looking at Saturday's loss and our football loss to unc, I can't think of a time when we were less competitive with them...(and I can remember some very bad seasons in both sports).

[throatybeard]

Looking at Saturday's loss and our football loss to unc, I can't think of a time when we were less competitive with them...(and I can remember some very bad seasons in both sports).

Gosh. Yeah in 1994-95, we lost to them by just one in football. By the time we were back to completely uncompetitive with them in football in 1996-97 the basketball rivalry had recovered. 2006-07 they swept us and football was at it's Roofian nadir. But those basketball games felt like "the rivalry" going in. People can wave KenPom and Torvik and point spreads around, but neither matchup this year made me feel at all like were going to win the game, and any point. At all. Honestly I was surprised how close we came in game one. And in K's bleak second and third year, Ben Bennett was around for the football team.

The real kick in the teeth to me for football was the 2019 game. We were so close to making it four straight against them, blew it, and now the program is falling back into not ACC-competitive. The future may turn out better than I fear there but that doesn't mean I want to think about it now.