Tracking team progress: Duke’s last 10 games

[CDu]

So, obviously the W/L record isn’t where we want it. Two OT losses and two others decided in the final minute went against us, and we sit at 5-5. A reasonable argument can be made that we “should” be 7-3. But, alas, this young team hasn’t figured out how to win in close games. In terms of level of play, we have played like the #16 team in the country over that span, we just keep falling short in crunch time.

With that said, I wanted to track how our guys have been playing over the last 10. Here goes:

Williams: 20.3 mpg, 9.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.6 bpg, 69.0 fg%. And honestly, this probably understates how well he has played recently since Johnson went out of the picture. The kid is really coming along. Williams still has some warts, as he tends to take himself out of play after his first jump. That showed itself against Tech, where Wright kept punishing us on second-efforts. Still, there is a LOT to like. He has gone from developmental afterthought to impact presence and very likely early entry candidate next year. Aside from free throw shooting and the aforementioned tendency to get lost after going for an initial block, I really have no major complaints. He has been a revelation. I suspect the end-of-season “last-10” stats will look even better for him.

Hurt: 32.1 mpg, 18.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 75.0 2pt%, 46.0 3pt%. Well, one thing is for sure, the kid can shoot. Those are silly fg% numbers. Offensively, Hurt is a shooting savant. The only negatives are defense, rebounding, and he isn’t great at making himself a big target for entry passes. But as a pure shooter from just about anywhere, he is fantastic. He has even started hitting his FTs (79.4%). The defense and the rebounding are certainly concerns, especially on a young team that can struggle defensively. But oh that shot.

Moore: 31.6 mpg, 12.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.6 topg, 56.7 2pt%, 32.4 3pt%, 84.2 ft%. Moore has had a pretty darn solid second half of the year. The turnovers are down, the assists are up, the rebounds lead the team, and he is usually a contributing scorer (2nd leading scorer over this stretch). Defensively, he can be a bit slow at times, but he is tough snd versatile and stepping up for sure.

Steward: 28.9 mpg, 12.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.6 apg, 2.1 topg, 48.2 2pt%, 35.4 3pt%, 75.0 ft%. That stat line for a freshman is fantastic. It is on par with what Stanley did last year and better than what Moore did last year or Reddish did 2 years ago or Frank Jackson and many other freshmen guard/wings have done for Duke. I think folks tend to not appreciate how good he has been overall. Yes, consistency is a concern, as is his occasional penchant for sloppy turnovers. But I think he has a very promising future next year.

Roach: 27.7 mpg, 8.2 ppg, 2.6 apg, 1.9 topg, 60.6 2pt%, 35.1 3pt%, 75.0 ft%. I am admittedly a fan of Roach, so his play over this stretch has been disappointing. I had hoped he would have figured out the pace of play by now and that his ability to attack the rim would have emerged. His shooting percentage on 2s is phenomenal for a guard, and his 3pt shot has become respectable. But because he isn’t a distributor, he needs to either be a strong defender, a plus shooter, or superlative off the dribble. The first snd last seemed the most likely to me, and I think eventually he gets there. But it clearly hasn’t happened yet. As with Steward, consistency is part of the problem. The stat line on average isn’t awful, but it comes and goes in wild swings. Hopefully next year he is a bit more consistent and more consistently productive.

Goldwire: 28.9 mpg, 4.5 ppg, 4.4 apg, 3.6 rpg, 2.2 spg, 1.7 topg, 37.9 2pt%, 30.0 3pt%, 71.4 ft%. Goldwire is what he is: a caretaker at PG who is a defensive ace but really limited offensively. His shot has left the building in the second half. He plays hard and has been punching well above his weight class, so no complaints. I would love for him to return for year 5, but it is sounding like that won’t happen.

Brakefield: 13.5 mpg, 3.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 0.6 bpg, 52.6 2pt%, 23.1 3pt%, 33.3 ft%, 2 DNP. The issue for Brakefield, as it was in high school, is being consistently present. That is harder when you are a reserve, but he just hasn’t been able to make it stick. There are lots of tools, and he periodically demonstrates them. But from game to game, you just never know what he will give. As a coach, that has to be challenging.

Baker: 10.6 mpg, 4.2 ppg, 20.0 2pt%, 40.7 3pt%, 100 ft%, 1 DNP. Baker is pretty much a catch and shoot guy, and after a weird start to the year where he blocked some shots but couldn’t shoot, he has settled back into his natural role in the second half. The kid can shoot the 3. If we had a little better passing ability and shot creating from our guards, he would be more regularly useful. Unfortunately, our team isn’t well constructed to maximize his shooting, and without that his defense is a problem. Hopefully next year aligns better for him.

Coleman: 4.9 mpg, 1.4 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.3 bpg, 1 DNP. Coleman appears to be a year or two away, but one thing he already does well is rebound. That per-minute rebound rate would lead the team.

[Kedsy]

Thanks for this. It's a nice way to look at things. I was perusing Torvik game scores, and I noticed that in the last six games (since Jalen Johnson left the team, counting the NCSU game), we've been playing about on par with the 2016 (Sweet 16) and 2017 (ACC tourney champs) teams, albeit with a tad more inconsistency.

I'm not giving up the notion of our beating UNC or surprising people in the postseason.

[kako]

Thanks for this.

I'm sure there will be more such reviews of the whole season after it's over. But I'll say it again - I love Steward's game. Yes, for a freshman, he's playing very well. He's got a scorer's mentality, and when he's on, he's on. And his football background probably shows in that he has no fear. Yes, he has exhibited weaknesses - certainly, no one would peg him for being a great distributor at this point. But assuming he stays, I believe he will be a guy next year that Duke can go to for a bucket. And even this year, no one can tell me that he can't turn it on again in one of the remaining games. I hope he can go back to Chicago this summer and finds some high level pickup games.

9F

[throatybeard]

Thanks for this.

I'm sure there will be more such reviews of the whole season after it's over. But I'll say it again - I love Steward's game. Yes, for a freshman, he's playing very well. He's got a scorer's mentality, and when he's on, he's on. And his football background probably shows in that he has no fear. Yes, he has exhibited weaknesses - certainly, no one would peg him for being a great distributor at this point. But assuming he stays, I believe he will be a guy next year that Duke can go to for a bucket. And even this year, no one can tell me that he can't turn it on again in one of the remaining games. I hope he can go back to Chicago this summer and finds some high level pickup games.

9F

Hear hear. Though I was okay with Goldwire's dish to an open Brakefield against Tech--Goldwire didn't have the look of a guy who was about to draw a foul in the lane--I do admit to wishing Steward had been the one doing the driving.