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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    Maybe Duke should take a page out of the Moses Wright playbook and deliberately grab the ball hesitate for a second or 2 and then throw it to the refs to prevent the secondary break.

    In other opinions: Is it possible for Duke to get an at-large bid anymore? If so, what would that need to entail? Would it require defeating UNC and making it all the way to the ACCT finals game?
    See the “Duke’s tourney chances” thread. Yes, it is possible. Will probably take a win at UNC and at least 2 ACCT wins, but 3 ACCT wins plus the UNC win would be better.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    In the first game, Matt Hurt was held to 7 points.
    Well, that's one way to look at it. Visitors to DBR Chat during the last Duke-UNC game may remember my Halftime Trivia questions about how only 4 players on our roster had any playing experience against UNC before this season (Baker, Goldwire, Hurt, and Moore), and of them, only Hurt was scoreless.

    By the way, that was still true at halftime. Hurt's 7 career points against UNC all came in the second half of that game. So maybe he's turned the page and those 7 points were his emergence.

  3. #23
    This game against the cheats is obviously important because a win would keep our ncaa hopes from crashing. I really think our guys can win this game, but it will not be easy, as everyone knows. I think Hurt will score more than 7 points, I just hope he can stay out of foul trouble. Some good scoring help from the back court would go a long way. A big key is always keeping the cheats from grabbing a double digit lead in the second half. So, c’mon Bluedevils. You can do this!! GTHC😁
       

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Santa Clara, CA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    See the “Duke’s tourney chances” thread. Yes, it is possible. Will probably take a win at UNC and at least 2 ACCT wins, but 3 ACCT wins plus the UNC win would be better.
    But for this one game, I think the team should be hyper-focused given it's UNC. Records don't count, standings don't count. Just beating Pantone 278 is reason enough.

    Just as an aside - if they don't win this game, I believe the only way they dance is winning the ACC's outright.

    9F
    Bucket List - Throw a party when Duke MBB has a winning record against Carolina.

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    It only happened a few times in that game. Twice they scored within 8 seconds of our score, 2-3 more times they scored within 12 seconds of a Duke make. So we did an ok job of avoiding it in game 1.

    Hopefully we do as good a job at it and UNC doesn’t go bonkers from 3 again.
    They've shot 25.9% from 3 since the first Duke game, so I fully expect that they will make 12 of 22 against Duke.

    For what it's worth, Duke's opponents since the Carolina game have shot 33.3% since then, a significant dip from earlier in the season. Even against Louisville and Georgia Tech, neither took or made that many 3's. I suppose that's progress. Duke's defense has seen a dramatic improvement since the UNC and ND losses. The offense has sagged the past couple of games, unfortunately. It would be nice to get back to hitting 11-25 like Duke did in the first UNC matchup. Shooting is going to be key in this one.

  6. #26

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    High probability this is a close game within a bucket with less than a minute to play. Sound familiar?
    man, i HATE that movie...
    "Either they're going down, or we are! Kirk out!"

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New Jersey

    Fans

    Anyone know how many fans they're letting in? While I'm sure there's a stated allowable amount, I wouldn't put it past the "university" to play fast and loose with the numbers. Our freshmen do not have any experience playing a road game against fans, particularly as rabid as they will be for this game, so this adds to the uphill battle.
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    Anyone know how many fans they're letting in? While I'm sure there's a stated allowable amount, I wouldn't put it past the "university" to play fast and loose with the numbers. Our freshmen do not have any experience playing a road game against fans, particularly as rabid as they will be for this game, so this adds to the uphill battle.
    what? UNC not taking the pandemic seriously? never.
    basketball is back, baby!

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    Anyone know how many fans they're letting in? While I'm sure there's a stated allowable amount, I wouldn't put it past the "university" to play fast and loose with the numbers. Our freshmen do not have any experience playing a road game against fans, particularly as rabid as they will be for this game, so this adds to the uphill battle.
    Actually Duke just played in front of a limited number of fans on Tuesday when they played at Georgia Tech. So the freshman do have at least one game experience in front of fans.

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Cabbagetown, Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevilStop View Post
    Every single one of your posts falls under the medium infraction category of the Posting & Decorum Guidelines
    https://forums.dukebasketballreport...before-posting!)

    Self promotion. Members come here primarily for dialog about Duke Basketball and related topics. They don't come here to read shameless self promotion. If your business or blog fits into the discussion, that's great - if you also provide content. But don't start or hijack threads with a "read my blog" or "buy my product, here's a link" posts. We're not a link farm.

    It has become tiresome.
    Hard at work making beautiful things.

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Edouble View Post
    Every single one of your posts falls under the medium infraction category of the Posting & Decorum Guidelines
    https://forums.dukebasketballreport...before-posting!)

    Self promotion. Members come here primarily for dialog about Duke Basketball and related topics. They don't come here to read shameless self promotion. If your business or blog fits into the discussion, that's great - if you also provide content. But don't start or hijack threads with a "read my blog" or "buy my product, here's a link" posts. We're not a link farm.

    It has become tiresome.
    Yeah, I'm surprised the mods have let this go for so long. Especially since it is literally "don't read the content on this board; go to my website and read what I have to say." We've had others get dinged for doing this in the past.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Santa Clara, CA


    My all-time favorite Nike commercial. Seems appropriate leading up to tomorrow. I wonder if the Marquette team watched it before they beat the Heels...

    Pantone 287 > Pantone 278

    9F
    Bucket List - Throw a party when Duke MBB has a winning record against Carolina.

  14. #34
    Our guards need to step up.I hope our guys can play up to Hurts level and keep the cheats off the glass.
       

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by mattyoung18 View Post
    Our guards need to step up. I hope our guys can play up to Hurts level and keep the cheats off the glass.
    The more I think about the game, the more I am convinced that the guards are going to determine this one and not the frontcourt. UNC's guards, in particular Caleb Love, went OFF against Duke in the first matchup. They have been terrible since in terms of shooting, turnovers, and all-around poor play. Against Florida State, freshman guards Love and Davis combined for 11 turnovers and shot a combined 2/11 from 3 and 4/13 from 2. That was a game dominated until the second half. I think Duke needs to keep the UNC frontcourt in check more or less, not get completely outplayed in that area. But what they really need to do is make darn sure Love, Davis, and Walton aren't hitting shots they normally only make against Duke. Force them to make plays. They will cough to ball up. Get them out of their games.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Rougemont Nebulae
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    The more I think about the game, the more I am convinced that the guards are going to determine this one and not the frontcourt. UNC's guards, in particular Caleb Love, went OFF against Duke in the first matchup. They have been terrible since in terms of shooting, turnovers, and all-around poor play. Against Florida State, freshman guards Love and Davis combined for 11 turnovers and shot a combined 2/11 from 3 and 4/13 from 2. That was a game dominated until the second half. I think Duke needs to keep the UNC frontcourt in check more or less, not get completely outplayed in that area. But what they really need to do is make darn sure Love, Davis, and Walton aren't hitting shots they normally only make against Duke. Force them to make plays. They will cough to ball up. Get them out of their games.
    Good assessment. Duke needs to be opportunistic. Over their last three games UNC has served up 60 turnovers, that's a number the belongs on a McDonald's sign. I'd love to see some those miscues turned into run out opportunities for the Duke guards, hopefully Goldwire feasts on mutton mistakes.

    ________________________
    Rosenberg and Sons
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    313 Martine Avenue,White Plains, NY 10601
    "At Rosenbergs we always measure twice and cut once."
    Last edited by CameronBlue; 03-05-2021 at 03:32 PM.
    "You will stop hearing the term 'Big Brother' because we will do it to ourselves." --Neil Postman

  17. #37

    A couple of low sample stats

    Here's a couple low-sample, probably non-predictive stats for you:


    So far this season, Duke is 11-3 when we shoot 30% or better from three and 0-7 when we shoot lower than 30% from three.

    So far this season, Duke is 9-1 when our opponent's free throw rate is 30% or lower, and 2-9 when the opposing FTR is higher than 30%.


    The opposite doesn't show the same kind of extreme trend: Duke is 7-8 when our opponent shoots 30% or better from three, 4-2 when they shoot lower than 30%; and Duke is 3-2 when our FTR is higher than 30%, 8-8 when it's 30% or lower.

    Like I said, it probably won't predict anything, especially for this game, as UNC generally "splits" the stats: they get fouled a lot (average FTR of 34.6%) but their opponents shoot well from three (average opponent shoots 35.1% from three). True to form, last UNC game we split, shooting 44% from three but fouling UNC to the tune of a 34.5% free throw rate.

    All that said, if we shoot well from distance and don't foul too much, I like our chances.

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Mount Kisco, NY
    Let's drive next door where the ceiling is the floor,
    Where the coed cheers are drowned by the wine-and-cheese snore,
    Bubbles are blown, someone's will burst
    March Madness for one, the other is cursed
    Will Duke's guards emerge from a mid winter nap?
    To hit 3s and drop dimes and play D like floor slaps?
    Will lanky Mr. Williams make a big old mark?
    Or get swallowed by Bacot, Kessler and Sharpe?
    Will Matthew of the North play well or play hurt?
    Or will Garrison deluge him as a flooded brook?
    Will Wendell deliver or leave us wanting more?
    Will Black leak his magic all over the floor?
    Davis and Love will run us until we expire
    Can Jordan tie them up with his sturdy gold wire?
    Will the role players Coleman, Platek, Walton and Brake
    Come up big, or shudder and quake?
    It's time to separate the pros from the fakers
    The X factor could just be Joey Baker.
    The holes are giving two and a half at home
    I'll take Duke straight up, at the dump of a dome.
    You never know what to expect from the refs
    But you can always be sure of 9F 9F 9F 9F!!!!!

  19. #39

    From The Center of Advanced Hind Sight [an actual Duke entity]

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Here's a couple low-sample, probably non-predictive stats for you:


    So far this season, Duke is 11-3 when we shoot 30% or better from three and 0-7 when we shoot lower than 30% from three.

    So far this season, Duke is 9-1 when our opponent's free throw rate is 30% or lower, and 2-9 when the opposing FTR is higher than 30%.


    The opposite doesn't show the same kind of extreme trend: Duke is 7-8 when our opponent shoots 30% or better from three, 4-2 when they shoot lower than 30%; and Duke is 3-2 when our FTR is higher than 30%, 8-8 when it's 30% or lower.

    Like I said, it probably won't predict anything, especially for this game, as UNC generally "splits" the stats: they get fouled a lot (average FTR of 34.6%) but their opponents shoot well from three (average opponent shoots 35.1% from three). True to form, last UNC game we split, shooting 44% from three but fouling UNC to the tune of a 34.5% free throw rate.

    All that said, if we shoot well from distance and don't foul too much, I like our chances.
    Kedsy, thanks for those very interesting stats!

    I would like to add a predictive stat from Ol Roy's highly regarded statistics department: If we win on Saturday, we should have scheduled the game. If we lose, we should not have scheduled it.
    “I love it. Coach, when we came here, we had a three-hour meeting about the core values. If you really represent the core values, it means diving on the floor, sacrificing your body for your teammates, no matter how much you’re up by or how much you’re down by, always playing hard.” -- Zion

  20. #40
    9f 3000

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