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  1. #61
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Wilson NC
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    Yes, Iím not ready to give up on DJ at all. Heís had a couple of rough games, but a good year. Roach on the other hand... letís just say he needs to do a lot of work over the summer.
    I thought he had a chance at freshman of the year but probably lost that the last 2 games unless he has a hell of a run in the ACC tourney.

  2. #62
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by TywinBlue View Post
    I always thought the KenPom "Luck" index was ridiculous--not anymore.
    It's only ridiculous if you consider it as our generally understood notion of luck, which it is not. It is simply the difference between what the model predicts our record should be and what it actually is. It encapsulates both elements of error inherent in the system as well as how consistent a team is, among other things. "Deviation" or "error" might be a better term, but "luck" is catchy.
    basketball is back, baby!

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by DownEastDevil View Post
    Williams is the only Freshman that hasn't hit the wall. Brakefield looked lost tonight along with Roach and Steward. This was another game like so many this year that we had a chance to win at the end.
    The best thing about Freshman is that they become sophomores - except when they donít. I have seen Brakefield play well and play poorly. He is going to be a good player.

  4. #64
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by acdevil View Post
    This is nothing compared to 94-95.
    That team was better.

    They were in a far tougher league and continually came up just short against four top ten/twelve teams, and beat a really good 8-8 Tech two out of three. A handful of shots fall differently and they're in the same position as the 1996 team. This team is experiencing the same sorts of losses to 2021 Miami, 2021 Notre Dame, and some 2021 bubble teams instead of Tim Duncan, Randolph Childress, Stackhouse, Wallace, Joe Smith, et alia.
    Last edited by throatybeard; 03-02-2021 at 11:03 PM.

  5. #65
    I love DJ. He was obviously not good enough tonight, but his demeanor all night kind of bugged me. Just entirely too devil-may-care (pun intended). He seemed like he doesn't think there is any accountability. Part of that is probably no one on the team who is able to legitimately set the tone. Guarantee you if J-Rob is on the bench, his demeanor is different.

    All that, t DJ generally makes me happy. The joy he has is palpable. I understand that some people show their competitiveness in different ways, but read the room, man. Not for fans, but for teammates. He dropped the ball tonight. Don't want him to dwell on it, but he's got to acknowledge it. Brake and Roach didn't look happy out there.

    Don't know what his teammates or coaches think or what is going on in his head. Just something I noticed
    Whatever the hell "it" is, Jabari found it.

    -Roy "Ole Huck" Williams

  6. #66
    [QUOTE=Dr. Maturin;1342112]The Basketball Gods hate this team. They've been good to us for a long time, but this year has been excruciating.

    To be fair, we've had 30+ years of amazing fun; we were due for a year of penance.

  7. #67
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Great Falls Va
    Such a hard game. In some ways it was hard not to win this game. I donít think Iíll ever find peace with that 5th foul on Hurt - you just canít call that there.

    I know Brakefield got an open look but I wouldíve preferred a drive to the basket with a chance to get fouled.

    This season is a painful reminder of how important guards are in college hoops and the risks of relying on freshman who are both physically and mentally young relative to the competition. I think Ultrarunner nailed this point in the Louisville thread.

  8. #68
    Ya canít win if your guards canít produce. This is the reason we lost the last two overtime games. I salute all the other players for even getting us in to overtime. I might give Goldwire a little break, but the other two, they just didnít get it done. Simple as that. Congrats to Ga. Tech. Acc tourney miracle run is the only hope now. Honestly, right now , a win over the cheats would at least put a little salve on the end of the season. GTH Carolina!!!!

  9. #69
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    The way this season has gone, weíre due for at least a half dozen banked-in three pointers against the CHeats this weekend.

  10. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    That team was better.

    They were in a far tougher league and continually came up just short against four top ten/twelve teams, and beat a really good 8-8 Tech two out of three. A handful of shots fall differently and they're in the same position as the 1996 team. This team is experiencing the same sorts of losses to 2021 Miami, 2021 Notre Dame, and some 2021 bubble teams instead of Tim Duncan, Randolph Childress, Stackhouse, Wallace, Joe Smith, etc alia.
    By far. Just a different time.

  11. #71
    Out of the timeout with 6.1 in regulation, did K really draw up Goldwire to Brake for the win. Brake was 1-7 and 0-3 from three with nothing coming close to going in...as was his last shot.

  12. #72
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Hartford Dukie View Post
    Out of the timeout with 6.1 in regulation, did K really draw up Goldwire to Brake for the win. Brake was 1-7 and 0-3 from three with nothing coming close to going in...as was his last shot.
    at some point, you have to take what the defense gives you...
    basketball is back, baby!

  13. #73
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by Hartford Dukie View Post
    Out of the timeout with 6.1 in regulation, did K really draw up Goldwire to Brake for the win. Brake was 1-7 and 0-3 from three with nothing coming close to going in...as was his last shot.
    I was surprised that DJ was not in on that possession. Either to receive the inbounds or to catch a pass ahead and try to drive to hoop..
    Windy City Devil

  14. #74
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Long Beach, CA
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    Wendell grew into a solid player this year.
    He really did.
    No soup for you!

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    That team was better.

    They were in a far tougher league and continually came up just short against four top ten/twelve teams, and beat a really good 8-8 Tech two out of three. A handful of shots fall differently and they're in the same position as the 1996 team. This team is experiencing the same sorts of losses to 2021 Miami, 2021 Notre Dame, and some 2021 bubble teams instead of Tim Duncan, Randolph Childress, Stackhouse, Wallace, Joe Smith, et alia.
    I dunno, throaty. The 1994-95 team featured Cherokee Parks and Erik Meek; sophomore Capel; injured junior Chris Collins; freshmen Wojo, Ricky Price and Trajan. Looked better before the season than afterwards. Probably better than this team -- but it's close.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I donít know what happened to Roach, Steward and Brakefield since that UVA game. Maybe that night was just a fluke. They have been a shell of themselves these last two games.
    They've hit the wall as that we've played the three most physical opponents of the season three games in row. None of them is strong enough to play through the level of contact that's been allowed, for whatever reason it's allowed.

    They'll all be better when they get a year older and stronger -- and they'll probably even bounce back this year if we get an opponent that plays more of a finesse game than UVa, Louisville and Tech.

    But against teams that are going to bully us, we're going to get bullied.

  17. #77
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Chicago 1995 View Post
    Just not physically strong enough to win against competition like this when the game is this physical. Roach and Steward got bullied again tonight. Both of them needs to get stronger this offseason and learn to play through more contact. Wendell had a good night, be he needs to be a lot stronger at the rim in traffic as well.

    Really, the whole darn team needs to get stronger and learn to play and finish through contact.

    At least Mark Williams is getting real minutes and is developing. That’s encouraging for next year — or it will be until he gets beaten into submission by Louisville or Michigan State or someone else who embraces the more physical game that I despise.
    I agree with this - they need to get stronger and tougher and angrier. At times this year DJ flashed some of the Chicago city ball mentality, but not enough. Maybe I've been watching too much Duke Blue Planet, but I'd like less gourmet catered meals and photo shoots and more loose ball drills and boxing out. There was a play late in the game where Wright just ripped it away from us, and I felt like that has been happening a lot.

    Hopefully this year will put a chip on the shoulder of every guy on the team. I appreciate their efforts and they really stepped it up to make a nice run - it was a really fun stretch. Now they need to learn from it and let it motivate them.

    Also, we had a theory in 94-95 that the bad season was payback for an 8-3 football season. So much for that...

  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    That team was better.

    They were in a far tougher league and continually came up just short against four top ten/twelve teams, and beat a really good 8-8 Tech two out of three. A handful of shots fall differently and they're in the same position as the 1996 team. This team is experiencing the same sorts of losses to 2021 Miami, 2021 Notre Dame, and some 2021 bubble teams instead of Tim Duncan, Randolph Childress, Stackhouse, Wallace, Joe Smith, et alia.
    No doubt that team was better. I was just taking about what a gut punch it was watching that team game after game lose in spectacular fashion.

  19. #79
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    [John Candy voice] 'member that one time when Stewart and Roach were both making threes? Yeah... that was awesome! [/John Candy voice]

  20. #80
    Duke played really good defense (0.85 ppp) in the first half, not so good thereafter, for an overall decent defensive performance. Our offense was consistently mediocre throughout the game, due in large part (similar to Louisville game) to our poor three-point shooting.

    OFFENSE

    Possessions: 78.0, for a pace of 69.3 (adjusting for the OT) (not super-fast, but our fastest pace since the 2nd Notre Dame game, 7 games ago))
    oRtg: 0.99 (1.06 adjusted; not so hot, the equivalent of the #123 offense in the country)
    eFG%: 49.3% (not good; thanks once again to our subpar 3pt shooting)
    3pt%: 26.9% (not as bad as against Louisville, but poor for the 2nd straight game)
    2pt%: 54.8% (pretty good, but actually our 2nd-worst 2pt% in our last eight games)
    %threes: 38.2% (too high; this might be fine if we were hitting 44% like we did for a recent six game stretch, but not if we shoot like we did today)
    FT rate: 25.0% (this is bad; the fact that it's above our average for the season is even worse)
    OR%: 28.9% (this is also bad)
    TO%: 17.9% (overall this isn't bad, but this was a tale of two halves for us tonight; our 3 first half TOs (9.3%) represented one of our best halves of the year, turnoverwise; the rest of the game was terrible (24.1%) in this regard)
    a/to: 1.36:1 (our 7th game over 1.3:1 out of our last eight)
    %assisted: 63.3% (4th straight game over 60%)
    fast break pts: 14 (18.2% of points; decent, not great)

    DEFENSE

    dRtg: 1.04 (0.92 adjusted; decent, the equivalent of the #27 defense in the country; but again a tale of two halves, as our first half D was the equivalent of the #1 D in the country, but after that we played like #92)
    eFG%: 50.0% (not good; our 13th opposing eFG of 50% or higher)
    3pt%: 27.3% (good)
    2pt%: 54.8% (terrible)
    %threes: 34.4% (a little high for us, but they missed most of them, so I guess it's OK)
    FT rate: 35.9% (poor, again)
    DR%: 67.6% (after playing most of the season as a good defensive rebounding team, we just had our seventh game out of nine under 68%)
    TO%: 19.2% (not terrible but not great)
    a/to: 1.13:1
    %assisted: 58.6%
    stl%: 11.5% (good but not spectacular)
    blk%: 4.7% (7.1% of 2pt shots) (3rd-worst blockage of the season)
    fast break pts: 8 (9.9% of points; not bad but could have been better)


    Who'd have thought this year's team would "live or die by the three"? Our offense is top 5 if we hit our threes and top 100 when we don't. Two straight overtime games against top 50 opponents is sort of impressive, but it wasn't what we needed at this point in the season.

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