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  1. #141
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Asotin, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by FerryFor50 View Post
    Yup. People keep harping on "turnovers" but the *type* of turnover is way more important.

    Throwing the ball out of bounds stinks, as do travels, offensive fouls, etc. But the absolute worst is that top of the key steal because you made a lazy pass for an easy dunk. 2 free points for the other team and a momentum boost.
    I was thinking about that last night. It's not just the turnover but the quality of the turnover. A bad pass in the key under the bucket doesn't lead to a run out and dunk because it occurs in front of the defense. A blown pass at the top of the key to a player already moving toward the bucket occurs behind the defense. The former has a hope of the team slowing the ball and getting into good defensive position. The latter doesn't - or, worse, leads to a +1 play. Also in play are how clean the transition is (is there a fight for a loose ball, etc.) and does a stoppage in play allow for a full defensive reset (as you mentioned above.)
    Had more opportunities this year than I'd like to ponder such things.

  2. #142
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    I do think it is interesting how much our discussions and thoughts and attitudes and feelings swing on small things.

    For example, had Brakefield made the three and we had won the game, what would the narrative be? We fought hard and came back very late from a deficit and snuck out a win on the road against a well-coached, veteran, physical team. Look how much this team has matured! Bounced back from a tough loss to gut this one out, etc., etc.

    One shot, folks. That's the difference. The block on Brakefield right before the half when taking a shot that could have put us up 8, followed by the three at the halftime buzzer was really the difference in the game. Such a back-breaking way to go into the half. In years past, we were the team doing stuff like that to our opponents right before the half, demoralizing them. Now we are on the other end of it. The other thing that really killed us was that period of time in the "fourth quarter" when we had four turnovers in six possessions. We needed to have more of our possessions end with us at least taking a shot!

    What is clear to me is that this team can pretty much hang with almost anybody. If our guards are shooting well and Hurt doesn't foul out, they can beat anybody. At the same time, they can lose to anybody, anytime. Having said that, I wouldn't write off this team's chances of winning the ACCT. UConn won the Big East tournament one year when they had double-digit losses during the regular season. They just put it together at the right time. I don't see any team in the ACC that Duke couldn't beat. I don't think it is likely that we win it, but if we do, it won't be all that surprising. We have the capability, if we can find a way to put it together. If Steward comes out of his shooting slump we are much more difficult to beat. I hope that that happens and happens soon. Saturday evening would be a good time for that to happen, as a matter of fact.
    These knee jerk reactions swing wildly both ways. Had we won, we'd be trying to figure out how high a seed we might climb to if we run the table. Instead, it's gloom, despair, and discussion of how overmatched we are.

  3. #143
    Quote Originally Posted by Ultrarunner View Post
    I was thinking about that last night. It's not just the turnover but the quality of the turnover. A bad pass in the key under the bucket doesn't lead to a run out and dunk because it occurs in front of the defense. A blown pass at the top of the key to a player already moving toward the bucket occurs behind the defense. The former has a hope of the team slowing the ball and getting into good defensive position. The latter doesn't - or, worse, leads to a +1 play. Also in play are how clean the transition is (is there a fight for a loose ball, etc.) and does a stoppage in play allow for a full defensive reset (as you mentioned above.)
    Had more opportunities this year than I'd like to ponder such things.
    I agree that TOs leading to immediate points are bad. But you could argue that an unpressured player dribbling the ball off his foot and out of bounds is more demoralizing than a great defensive play that leads to two points.

  4. #144
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    I has happy with the opportunity we got at the end of regulation. Goldwire didn't have the look of a guy who was about to draw a foul in the lane with a couple seconds left. Brakefield's shot just didn't drop.

  5. #145
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    I do think it is interesting how much our discussions and thoughts and attitudes and feelings swing on small things.

    For example, had Brakefield made the three and we had won the game, what would the narrative be? We fought hard and came back very late from a deficit and snuck out a win on the road against a well-coached, veteran, physical team. Look how much this team has matured! Bounced back from a tough loss to gut this one out, etc., etc.

    One shot, folks. That's the difference. The block on Brakefield right before the half when taking a shot that could have put us up 8, followed by the three at the halftime buzzer was really the difference in the game. Such a back-breaking way to go into the half. In years past, we were the team doing stuff like that to our opponents right before the half, demoralizing them. Now we are on the other end of it. The other thing that really killed us was that period of time in the "fourth quarter" when we had four turnovers in six possessions. We needed to have more of our possessions end with us at least taking a shot!

    What is clear to me is that this team can pretty much hang with almost anybody. If our guards are shooting well and Hurt doesn't foul out, they can beat anybody. At the same time, they can lose to anybody, anytime. Having said that, I wouldn't write off this team's chances of winning the ACCT. UConn won the Big East tournament one year when they had double-digit losses during the regular season. They just put it together at the right time. I don't see any team in the ACC that Duke couldn't beat. I don't think it is likely that we win it, but if we do, it won't be all that surprising. We have the capability, if we can find a way to put it together. If Steward comes out of his shooting slump we are much more difficult to beat. I hope that that happens and happens soon. Saturday evening would be a good time for that to happen, as a matter of fact.
    the 2011 uconn team never sank as low as this duke team. Their worst loss was #41 johnnies. This duke team has SEVEN losses worse than 2011 uconn's worst.

    That said, that big east was better at the top than this ACC. Uconn beat #31, #3, #13 and #14 in consecutive days (after a warmup win on day 1). No doubt duke's road is tough, but it's not as rough as that, which is fortunate, as duke is not as good.
    basketball is back, baby!

  6. #146
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    the 2011 uconn team never sank as low as this duke team. Their worst loss was #41 johnnies. This duke team has SEVEN losses worse than 2011 uconn's worst.

    That said, that big east was better at the top than this ACC. Uconn beat #31, #3, #13 and #14 in consecutive days (after a warmup win on day 1). No doubt duke's road is tough, but it's not as rough as that, which is fortunate, as duke is not as good.
    And, unfortunately, Kemba Walker ain't walkin' through that door. This Duke team doesn't seem to have a guard of that caliber.
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  7. #147
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    We could rename DBR to DRB - Duke Recency Bias.
    Bwahahahaha.

    There's also quite a bit of survivorship bias, that manifests as

    Team who won it all in [year] does X, why aren't we doing that?

    IDK, are we having the discussion at all if one or two more shots fall against Michigan State or Kansas? Whoever wins a six round single elimination meat grinder is going to have some characteristic that's different from the other seven teams in the last eight. Doesn't necessarily mean others need to adopt whatever that was.

  8. #148
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Asotin, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I agree that TOs leading to immediate points are bad. But you could argue that an unpressured player dribbling the ball off his foot and out of bounds is more demoralizing than a great defensive play that leads to two points.
    No disagreement. With young players who haven't internalized the 'next play' mindset, a boneheaded play is often worse than a bad play or great defensive play. At least with the latter two, you were trying to actively accomplish something positive. Dribbling the ball off your foot? In front of everyone? Embarrassing. And that gets into their heads. I think that's part of the problem right now with Steward and Roach. They'll get over it - eventually.

  9. #149
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Santa Clara, CA
    Quote Originally Posted by szstark View Post
    Sorry to disagree, but Moore handling the ball is never our best option. JGold did a fine job bringing the ball up court and found a wide open Brakefield for the potential winning shot. Nothing wrong with the call or the play with obvious exception of Brakefield missing the shot.
    +1. I thought the play ran fine. JGold got the ball up the court quickly and found an open man. Brake had the look, it just didn't go in. Moore was better with the ball yesterday. But there have been times in late game situations that he also fails to make the right play. Would've could've should've... Duke had a look to win the game. If the shot had gone in, obviously the entire tenor of this string would be completely different.

    9F
    Bucket List - Throw a party when Duke MBB has a winning record against Carolina.

  10. #150
    Quote Originally Posted by szstark View Post
    I acknowledge these guys have a different mindset than most of us, but how can you simultaneously be worried about becoming the 7th man on the Duke team and still believe there is a spot for you on an NBA roster?
    I'm not a 20-year-old kid, but if you're coming off a good season and you're hoping to get drafted in the 2nd round but on your college team suddenly find yourself behind two lottery picks at your position (e.g. AJ Griffin and Patrick Baldwin), I don't think the two ideas you've brought up are necessarily inconsistent.

  11. #151
    If K just forbid anyone from making a spin move until their junior year, I'd be happy.

  12. #152
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I'm not a 20-year-old kid, but if you're coming off a good season and you're hoping to get drafted in the 2nd round but on your college team suddenly find yourself behind two lottery picks at your position (e.g. AJ Griffin and Patrick Baldwin), I don't think the two ideas you've brought up are necessarily inconsistent.
    I wonder if Marques Bolden had a similar thought process after the 2019 season. I know the scenarios are not completely the same but Marques had to wonder where his playing time would come from with Vernon coming in and Javin already there.

  13. #153
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Bwahahahaha.

    There's also quite a bit of survivorship bias, that manifests as

    Team who won it all in [year] does X, why aren't we doing that?

    IDK, are we having the discussion at all if one or two more shots fall against Michigan State or Kansas? Whoever wins a six round single elimination meat grinder is going to have some characteristic that's different from the other seven teams in the last eight. Doesn't necessarily mean others need to adopt whatever that was.
    This is nonsense. Would UNC have had some characteristic different from the other teams if Kris Jenkins' buzzer beater had rimmed out in 2016?

    Would Auburn or Texas Tech have had some characteristic different from other teams if the refs had called the obvious double dribble on Ty Jerome at the end of UVA's Final Four game against Auburn in the 2019 Final Four?

    Our losses to Michigan State and Kansas in the Elite 8 on the last possession are great examples too. Just because the ball bounces a certain way, or a ref makes or doesn't make a certain call at a critical time in one game doesn't say anything about the characteristics of the teams involved.

  14. #154
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    This is nonsense. Would UNC have had some characteristic different from the other teams if Kris Jenkins' buzzer beater had rimmed out in 2016?

    Would Auburn or Texas Tech have had some characteristic different from other teams if the refs had called the obvious double dribble on Ty Jerome at the end of UVA's Final Four game against Auburn in the 2019 Final Four?

    Our losses to Michigan State and Kansas in the Elite 8 on the last possession are great examples too. Just because the ball bounces a certain way, or a ref makes or doesn't make a certain call at a critical time in one game doesn't say anything about the characteristics of the teams involved.
    I think you're misinterpreting, I think TB meant SOMETHING different, not necessarily something different that makes that team superior to the others.

  15. #155
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by robed deity View Post
    I think you're misinterpreting, I think TB meant SOMETHING different, not necessarily something different that makes that team superior to the others.
    Well of course every team has SOMETHING different from all other teams. An infinite number of things, actually. The great majority of those things have little or nothing to do with winning a championship.

  16. #156
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by DrChainsaw View Post
    If K just forbid anyone from making a spin move until their junior year, I'd be happy.
    How many Duke recruits stay around that long?

  17. #157
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Well of course every team has SOMETHING different from all other teams. An infinite number of things, actually. The great majority of those things have little or nothing to do with winning a championship.
    Yes, that is literally the point of the post that you called nonsense. Take a look at it again, paying particular attention to the sentence immediately following the portion you bolded.

  18. #158
    Quote Originally Posted by szstark View Post
    Sorry to disagree, but Moore handling the ball is never our best option. JGold did a fine job bringing the ball up court and found a wide open Brakefield for the potential winning shot. Nothing wrong with the call or the play with obvious exception of Brakefield missing the shot.
    I agree about Moore when in the half-court set, but he's been a consistently decent (and improving) option driving the length of the court to finish. His vision is still poor enough that he doesn't usually make the best read on finishing vs passing, but he's one of our better options in the open court.
    I also agree that there was nothing wrong withe play as it happened, just that the shot didn't go in.


    Quote Originally Posted by FerryFor50 View Post
    I think Moore has greatly improved his ball handling and decision making since the start of the year, and has even started finding open shooters on drives. Last night he only had 1 turnover (though a couple of bad forced shots when he had to be "the guy" when Hurt fouled out).
    Looking forward to seeing how he improves next season.
    Although he was only credited with one turn, he got stuffed (+ the steal) so bad in the lane at least twice that those plays were indistinguishable from turnovers. One of those was i think on the 1st possession of the game for Duke, or at least very early.

    Quote Originally Posted by FerryFor50 View Post
    What's interesting to me is that he drove to the rim pretty much every time and didn't attempt any FTs. That doesn't mean he didn't get hit on those shots, though...
    Also, to your point about dumping it to a big, there was one play exactly like that last night. Moore drove the lane and put up a shot with Wright selling out for the block. Wright swatted it, but Mark Williams was wide open for an easy dunk if Moore had just thrown a little bounce pass.
    It was driving me insane how much contact Duke players were taking while shooting without fouls being called.
    I very clearly remember that play and the cursing that followed from him not making the pass to Williams for the dunk. Very frustrating missed opportunity.

  19. #159
    Quote Originally Posted by Bay Area Duke Fan View Post
    How many Duke recruits stay around that long?
    Point taken, but it's all about keeping me happy in my world....

  20. #160
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by robed deity View Post
    I think you're misinterpreting, I think TB meant SOMETHING different, not necessarily something different that makes that team superior to the others.
    Right. And then people are going to seize on whatever they could identify, and posit it as a difference maker.

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