Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 55
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA

    This Week in the ACC - 3/1-3/7

    Amazingly enough, we all made it to the last week of the regular season more or less intact. Sure there's a dramatic disparity in games played (from 17 for Miami to 11 for Boston College), but the season happened. Let's see how the last week shakes out.

    Monday
    [13]Virginia (11-4) (-15) hosts [144]Miami (3-14) (6:00, ACCN)
    [61]Syracuse (7-7) (+1) hosts [34]North Carolina (9-5) (7:00, ESPN)

    Tuesday
    [81]Pittsburgh (5-9) (-9) hosts [157]Wake Forest (3-13) (6:00, ACCN)
    [32]Georgia Tech (9-6) (-3) hosts [35]Duke (9-7) (8:00, ACCN)

    Wednesday
    [61]Syracuse (7-7) (-1) hosts [38]Clemson (9-5) (5:00, ACCN)
    [45]Virginia Tech (9-4) (-2) hosts [44]Louisville (8-4) (7:00, ESPN2)
    [65]Notre Dame (6-10) (-3) hosts [72]NC State (8-8) (7:00, ACCN)
    [9]Florida State (10-3) (-16) hosts [127]Boston College (2-9) (9:00, ACCN)

    Thursday is dark

    Friday
    [144]Miami (3-14) (-1) hosts [127]Boston College (2-9) (6:00, ACCN)
    [157]Wake Forest (3-13) (+10) hosts [32]Georgia Tech (9-6) (8:00, ACCN)

    Saturday
    [65]Notre Dame (6-10) (+5) hosts [9]Florida State (10-3) (12:00, ESPN2)
    [81]Pittsburgh (5-9) (+6) hosts [38]Clemson (9-5) (12:00, ACCNX)
    [72]NC State (8-8) (+1) hosts [45]Virginia Tech (9-4) (2:00, ACCNX)
    [44]Louisville (8-4) (+1) hosts [13]Virginia (11-4) (4:00, ESPN/ESPN2)
    [34]North Carolina (9-5) (-3) hosts [35]Duke (9-7) (6:00, ESPN)

    Sunday is dark - everyone rests up for the tourney

    ACC Non-Conference Record: 62-23
    ACC vs. Power 6: 18-15

    Conference-Only Efficiency Margin:
    Florida State: +14.2
    Virginia: +10.2
    Duke: +6.9
    Virginia Tech: +6.1
    Georgia Tech: +6.0
    North Carolina: +5.3
    Syracuse: +2.1
    Louisville: +0.9
    Notre Dame: +0.2
    Pittsburgh: -1.7
    Clemson: -2.6
    NC State: -2.8
    Boston College: -10.0
    Miami: -14.5
    Wake Forest: -16.4
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Wow. Those lines against Tech and UNC seem to indicate we'd be toss-up or -0.5 on a neutral floor. That may be, but feels a little off.

  3. #3
    I got into this debate on reddit and want to bring it here because I love to be yelled at.

    Leonard Hamilton just got a 5-year contract extension. I saw a comment that said he was top 10 coach the last 5 years. I feel that Hamilton is a good coach but saying he's top 10 is very, very generous. What say DBR?

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Wow. Those lines against Tech and UNC seem to indicate we'd be toss-up or -0.5 on a neutral floor. That may be, but feels a little off.
    If anything, those are probably UNDERestimates of where the team is right now. Over the last 10 games, Bart Torvik (aka, KenPom for free) has us as the #13 team in the country, compared with Tech #32 and UNC #37.

    And we did beat Tech by 7 at home earlier in the season, which would suggest a tie game or a 1-point win for us at their place on average.

    UNC has played really well at times (including the win at our place), but they also have absolute clunkers recently against Marquette, UVa, and Clemson. And aside from annihilating a very shorthanded Louisville, they've not had quite the ceiling we've had.

    KenPom has us at #35 overall, with UNC at #34 and Tech at #32. Torvik has us at #37, Tech at #29, and UNC at #44. So "toss-up on a neutral floor" sounds totally fair, if not an underestimate of us given how much better we've played the 5 weeks than we did earlier in the season.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    I got into this debate on reddit and want to bring it here because I love to be yelled at.

    Leonard Hamilton just got a 5-year contract extension. I saw a comment that said he was top 10 coach the last 5 years. I feel that Hamilton is a good coach but saying he's top 10 is very, very generous. What say DBR?
    I think that "top-10 coach the last 5 years" sounds about right. For reference, KenPom has them at #9 this year, #15 last year, #14 the year before that, #27 in 2018, and #26 in 2017. So I might amend the statement to "top-10 coach the last 3 years". But even then, it's probably not far off being true over 5 years when you consider that there is a decent amount of turnover outside of a few programs.

    It's also worth noting that he appears to be getting better with age. He is now recruiting at the top level, and the results are starting to trend in that direction.

    Hamilton used to be a good Xs and Os coach who couldn't get enough top-tier talent to consistently compete. Now he seems to be landing the stud recruits in addition to being a really good coach.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    To put it another way, here are the programs which are absolutely top-10 over the past 5 years, along with their KenPom ranking:

    Gonzaga: #1, #10, #2, #2, #1 (average #3)
    UVa: #12, #2, #1, #42, #13 (average #14)
    Duke: #13, #3, #4, #5, #35 (average #12)
    Kansas: #6, #9, #17, #1, #19 (average #10)
    Villanova: #2, #1, #30, #18, #10 (average #10)

    After that, there are a lot of ups and downs amongst the teams, with few of them consistently excellent. For FSU, their numbers are #26, #27, #14, #15, #9 (average (#18). So clearly behind those top-5, but probably reasonably in the discussion within the next group, along with Baylor (average #18), Purdue (average #14), Houston (#20), and Texas Tech (#20).

    Then there is Michigan, who has been in that top group but has done it with two different coaches. They would bump FSU down if either Beilein or Howard had been their for 5 years, but that isn't the case.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    The interesting thing about the last 5 years is the number of big-name coaches that don't make the cut:

    Izzo at MSU: #40, #6, #3, #7, 62 (average #24)
    Williams at UNC: #3, #8, #7, #84, #34 (average #23)
    Calipari at Kentucky: #4, #17, #12, #29, #52 (average #22)
    Huggins at WVU: #7, #12, #95, #10, #17 (average #28)
    Boeheim at Syracuse: #55, #41, #39, #51, #61 (average #49)

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Leonard Hamilton just got a 5-year contract extension. I saw a comment that said he was top 10 coach the last 5 years. I feel that Hamilton is a good coach but saying he's top 10 is very, very generous. What say DBR?
    I mean, I guess you could argue that he is #11 or #12 or so over the past 5 years as a way of saying he was not top 10. I have not given it a ton of thought to put together a list. There's no question he is behind K, Few, Scott Drew, Wright, Bennett, and Self and probably behind Roy (though the past couple years have been rough). So, I suspect you could come up with a few more to maybe say Hamilton is not exactly in the top 10...

    But the way you make it sound, it seems like you think he was not even among the top 15 or 20 coaches over the past half decade. I think you would have a really tough time making that argument and I would probably disagree with you.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The interesting thing about the last 5 years is the number of big-name coaches that don't make the cut:

    Izzo at MSU: #40, #6, #3, #7, 62 (average #24)
    Williams at UNC: #3, #8, #7, #84, #34 (average #23)
    Calipari at Kentucky: #4, #17, #12, #29, #52 (average #22)
    Huggins at WVU: #7, #12, #95, #10, #17 (average #28)
    Boeheim at Syracuse: #55, #41, #39, #51, #61 (average #49)
    This is an interesting analysis and way to view the situation. I think I've been looking at FSU's March experiences and allowing that to cloud my judgement a little too much. Over 18 years as head coach, Hamilton has only had 8 NCAA Tournament appearances, one (soon to be two) regular season titles in the ACC, and one ACC Tournament Title. He's gone past the Sweet 16 just once in his coaching career. It is also true that last year was one of his best teams, so that really is flaw in the ointment if you're basing the analysis around March.

    Huggins, Williams, and Calipari have been done in by one really bad year. If we used a 10-year average, I don't think Hamilton would stack up as well against those guys. At any rate, Hamilton has been getting better as a coach.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Rougemont Nebulae
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Wow. Those lines against Tech and UNC seem to indicate we'd be toss-up or -0.5 on a neutral floor. That may be, but feels a little off.
    This is an instance where the line doesn't reflect how the teams matchup. K and Mark Williams abused the Syracuse interior and Duke was never challenged. With UNC's size on the interior, Kessler beginning to play well, this is a very bad matchup for Syracuse, despite what the arithmetic says. UNC is going to have to shoot poorly from the perimeter and Syracuse will have to shoot out of its mind from 3 for this thing to stay within 20. Unless Roy "makes some adjustments" the burnt orange will be burnt toast.
    "You will stop hearing the term 'Big Brother' because we will do it to ourselves." --Neil Postman

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    I was giving this some shower thought. It has no predictive power, but off the top of my head...

    What we're hoping to materialize is a situation where despite losing the home game first, Duke wins in Chapel Hill second at the end of the RS. I thought, that has to be rare. IIRC, the current UNC-odds/Duke-evens calendar for the last home game goes back through 1986. For some reason, it went Duke-UNC, Duke-UNC in both 1984 and 1985, which put us on the evens, where we've been since.

    So, ignoring the ACCT,

    Duke wins first game at home, but then loses on road:
    1993, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2011, 2017

    Duke loses first game at home, then gets RS-swept:
    1987, 1995, 2007, 2009, 2019

    Duke wins first game at home, then RS-sweeps:
    1991, 1999, 2013, 2015

    Duke loses first game, but recovers to win second:
    1989, 2001

    So it's two of the possible seventeen cases so far. If you wanted to throw 1984 and 1982 into Carolina's RS-sweep pile, then you'd have the complete set under Krzyzewski. Two of nineteen.

    (Obviously, the ACCT complicates and/or intensifies the general feel of things in 1989, 1991, 1999, 2001, 2011, 2017 and 2019).

    So it's only happened twice in the K era, Ferry's senior year, and the Battier-cheetah game, and both of those teams won at least their NCAAT regional. What I can't remember is why we got our butts just plain kicked in Durham on 1989, and then somehow pulled it out in Chapel Hill a few weeks later. The only one of those three games I remember mildly well other than the W or L is the ACC Final where Ferry caught iron from three-quarters court, which would have prolonged the game if it fell.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    (In the evens, it's happened more than twice that we steal the first game over there, and then gak away the potential RS-sweep at home: 2006, 2008, 2012, 2016. And, that also happened in the last year before the calendar change, 1985).

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I was giving this some shower thought. It has no predictive power, but off the top of my head...

    What we're hoping to materialize is a situation where despite losing the home game first, Duke wins in Chapel Hill second at the end of the RS. I thought, that has to be rare. IIRC, the current UNC-odds/Duke-evens calendar for the last home game goes back through 1986. For some reason, it went Duke-UNC, Duke-UNC in both 1984 and 1985, which put us on the evens, where we've been since.

    So, ignoring the ACCT,

    Duke wins first game at home, but then loses on road:
    1993, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2011, 2017

    Duke loses first game at home, then gets RS-swept:
    1987, 1995, 2007, 2009, 2019

    Duke wins first game at home, then RS-sweeps:
    1991, 1999, 2013, 2015

    Duke loses first game, but recovers to win second:
    1989, 2001

    So it's two of the possible seventeen cases so far. If you wanted to throw 1984 and 1982 into Carolina's RS-sweep pile, then you'd have the complete set under Krzyzewski. Two of nineteen.

    (Obviously, the ACCT complicates and/or intensifies the general feel of things in 1989, 1991, 1999, 2001, 2011, 2017 and 2019).

    So it's only happened twice in the K era, Ferry's senior year, and the Battier-cheetah game, and both of those teams won at least their NCAAT regional. What I can't remember is why we got our butts just plain kicked in Durham on 1989, and then somehow pulled it out in Chapel Hill a few weeks later. The only one of those three games I remember mildly well other than the W or L is the ACC Final where Ferry caught iron from three-quarters court, which would have prolonged the game if it fell.
    Well, sorta.

    But the first outcome is already known - we lost the first game. And in those seven instances, we recovered to win the second one two of those times, or 28.5% - which feels about right for the odds Saturday? Not 50/50 of course, but better than a quarter?

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I was giving this some shower thought. It has no predictive power, but off the top of my head...

    What we're hoping to materialize is a situation where despite losing the home game first, Duke wins in Chapel Hill second at the end of the RS. I thought, that has to be rare. IIRC, the current UNC-odds/Duke-evens calendar for the last home game goes back through 1986. For some reason, it went Duke-UNC, Duke-UNC in both 1984 and 1985, which put us on the evens, where we've been since.

    So, ignoring the ACCT,

    Duke wins first game at home, but then loses on road:
    1993, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2011, 2017

    Duke loses first game at home, then gets RS-swept:
    1987, 1995, 2007, 2009, 2019

    Duke wins first game at home, then RS-sweeps:
    1991, 1999, 2013, 2015

    Duke loses first game, but recovers to win second:
    1989, 2001

    So it's two of the possible seventeen cases so far. If you wanted to throw 1984 and 1982 into Carolina's RS-sweep pile, then you'd have the complete set under Krzyzewski. Two of nineteen.

    (Obviously, the ACCT complicates and/or intensifies the general feel of things in 1989, 1991, 1999, 2001, 2011, 2017 and 2019).

    So it's only happened twice in the K era, Ferry's senior year, and the Battier-cheetah game, and both of those teams won at least their NCAAT regional. What I can't remember is why we got our butts just plain kicked in Durham on 1989, and then somehow pulled it out in Chapel Hill a few weeks later. The only one of those three games I remember mildly well other than the W or L is the ACC Final where Ferry caught iron from three-quarters court, which would have prolonged the game if it fell.
    That's not really the appropriate math. We've only had 7 cases in which the team lost the first game at home. Obviously the outcome you described (losing first at home, then winning on the road) can't happen if we won the first at home. So you can ignore those examples. So, we've done it 2 of 7 times rather than 2 of 17.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    I said it had no predictive power, so you can save the percentages lecture. I was simply interested in how many times it had happened at all.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I said it had no predictive power, so you can save the percentages lecture. I was simply interested in how many times it had happened at all.
    I mean, it wasn’t a lecture. But whatever.

    It is only really rare because (a) we only play at home first half the time and (b) we win at home vs UNC a bit more often than we lose and (threeve) we lose in Chapel Hill a bit more often than we win.

    In that context, it isn’t all that interesting that we are 2-5 in Chapel Hill after losing at home. Which, to the stated point of your post, is what we are really hoping to materialize.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    So what actually interests me*:

    Why did the league do the 1984 to 1986 swapperoo on the order of the Duke-Carolina games? The key year in that sequence, 1985, was wild, in that Dawkins had one of his best games ever, and we beat Carolina by three touchdowns in Carmichael. That allowed us to bookend eighteen consecutive losses with wins in our very first and very last games there, IIRC. I vaguely remember that game on TV, but mostly know it from reading Brill (1986) later.

    Also, as I was in seventh grade in Georgia in 1989, I remember 2001 a lot better than 1989. I have almost no visual memories of the 1989 RS games, though I remember the 1988 triple sweep better. (It helped the 1989 ACCT final stick with me that it was in Atlanta, and the local news played the highlight of Ferry's doinked hail mary several times).

    In 1989, how did we turn it around from a Durham asswhuppin to a one possession win in Chapel Hill?




    * dividing two by seven isn't it.

  18. #18
    Five year extension for Leonard Hamilton. Good move by FSU.

    https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...-florida-state

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    A tight game in Charlottesville. Miami 28, Virginia 27 with 3:50 left in 1st half.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Virginia finishes half with a 14-2 run to take a 41-30 lead.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

Similar Threads

  1. This Week in the ACC: Post-Season Week 1
    By pfrduke in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 20
    Last Post: 03-17-2018, 01:24 AM
  2. Trent named ACC Player of Week, Rookie of Week
    By jimsumner in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 01-23-2018, 10:19 AM
  3. Poll Skew: Jeremy Cash for this week's LOTT Impact Player of the Week
    By Devil in the Blue Dress in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 31
    Last Post: 11-02-2015, 08:12 PM
  4. ACC Efficiency Rankings (Week 8) - One Week Left
    By loran16 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 03-01-2011, 11:42 AM
  5. Last week was Insurrection week
    By RelativeWays in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 02-28-2008, 07:08 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •