Back down to Earth. It’s been nice to enjoy some hope for a little while.
Back down to Earth. It’s been nice to enjoy some hope for a little while.
Goidwire, Steward, and Roach all looked strong in the last game. But today they regressed to the mean, despite--as far as one could tell--working hard, other than in the disjointed early minutes of the game. Roach in particular didn't seem to be clicking today. We needed something offensively from someone other than Hurt to make this game work.
Agree with those who would have liked to see even more of Williams, especially given the lack of success from the three guard lineup. Regardless of what happens from here (which I don't feel optimistic about--though I acknowledge there is still a chance, if maybe only in the Dumb and Dumber sense), I'm very much looking forward to seeing what Williams can do next year.
I'd like to see what Hurt could do at Duke next year, too, but I don't expect to--unless he just has a really strong desire to get a college degree in the normal number of years, I can't see why he would stay, as I doubt he will be able to improve his NBA prospects with another year of college play. He has really been playing well over the last stretch--may be the player who has benefited most from Jalen Johnson's departure, as he is the first offensive option and, on defense, he gets better match-ups.
This was a tough one.
Those turnovers by Goldwire to Williams were really bad..just don't understand this perimeter offense we are constantly trying to play...the point of having Williams is to have him post up...pass it to him, pass back out or take the shot...have playing cut down the middle or he passes to the wing...imo
"I wanted it to be in my hands," Roach said of his game-sealing drive. "I wanted to take—I wanted that moment."
"Definitely was a bit personal for me," Roach added. "I mean, what happened last year, obviously, but just wanted to come out here and do anything I can to get this win, and we did that." Duke-Carolina, Cameron Indoor, Feb. 4th 2023
That’s not what my posts mean at all. They do mean that the posters saying that our at large chances are over because of this loss are overreacting. We remain right on the edge of the field with two games and the tourney to go, and in those games we have more opportunities for impressive wins than any team besides MSU. We control our fate.
Scott Rich on the front page
Trinity BS 2012; University of Michigan PhD 2018
Duke Chronicle, Sports Online Editor: 2010-2012
K-Ville Blue Tenting 2009-2012
Unofficial Brian Zoubek Biographer
If you have questions about Michigan Basketball/Football, I'm your man!
Scott, I feel the question to ask is, what is our realistic chance of an at-large bid? I sure as heck want a 12-game win streak from here on out. But to me, likely path is split the next two, win at least two in the ACCT. We're 14-11 at that point. Is that enough to get in to the tourney? Smarter, more quantitative minds on this board may tell me otherwise, but I feel like we're on the outside looking in at that point.
5 on 1. Hurt could not win game on his own. Louisville beat us in OT. They were so much better than Duke. Steward,Moore,Roach,Brakefield and Goldwire were not sharp. Lucky to make OT. Execution was mediocre.Williams held his own except in blocking out and making hustle plays. Rebounding was really poor.
I agree with GoDuke is 100% here. Moreover, Mtn Devil—your last post above is a cop out. “Agree to disagree/I’m rooting for the team.” He’s making a point on personnel decisions and thinks we should have gone big instead of small. Why do you believe we should stay small? Get more sophisticated than “well I’m rooting for the team.”
We are all rooting for the team, but in a game where we were out rebounded 41-33, beat on the O-boards 15-7, and beat on points in the paint 44-30...yea I think benching our best defensive post presence late is a complete mistake. What’s your argument against that?
(Addt’l arguments in favor of staying big include: 1) this completely exposes Matt Hurt to get abused and take unnecessary fouls...2) you can make an argument for going small if your guards are playing well, but has been pointed out ad nauseum: they were playing quite poorly: 3-18fg & 4/5 a/to for Roach & Steward).
I mean you said it Mtn. Devil: K can’t go rebound or defend—but Williams can! So why go small? What’s your argument beyond you are rooting for the team? You can root for the team and disagree with Coach’s decisions. Speaking of...
K made two other critical mistakes that no one is discussing and completely defy logic:
1) He had Roach guarding the last few possessions—WHY?! Goldwire only had 3 fouls and should have been on him
2) He had Hurt in on a must foul situation with ~20 seconds left in OT, despite having 4 fouls and a Timeout. He should have subbed him out and would have the had the chance to put him back in even if we got a steal
As many have said, Lunardi is not especially accurate when it comes to predicting the bracket relative to other prognosticators. He just gets the pub because he’s on ESPN. If you look at BracketMatrix, he’s 55th in accuracy over the past 5 years out of 133 projectors. Also remember bracketology is a snapshot of this exact moment.
I think if we win our last two we’re more likely than not to make the tourney, especially since that means we’ll have swept GT, one of our competitors. If we split the last two regular season games and win one in the ACCT, I think our chances are slightly below a coin flip and depend a lot on what happens to the bubble teams in the B1G and Big East down the stretch. If we split and win two in the ACCT I think we’re above a coin flip chance. Any more than that and I think we’re comfortably in.
We all are keeping the perspective that we have had in the past when we’re hunting a No. 1 seed where a loss hurts so much more since all the competition are more likely than not to win. The bubble teams that aren’t mid-majors are all hanging around .500 in their conference, meaning they’re likely to lose down the stretch, and have the potential to implode and lost multiple games. Case and point: Minnesota and Indiana were both thought safely in a mere week ago, and now likely both have major uphill battles after hitting really tough stretches in the B1G schedule.
Breathe, and remember we have at least two more Q1 opportunities this week.
Scott Rich on the front page
Trinity BS 2012; University of Michigan PhD 2018
Duke Chronicle, Sports Online Editor: 2010-2012
K-Ville Blue Tenting 2009-2012
Unofficial Brian Zoubek Biographer
If you have questions about Michigan Basketball/Football, I'm your man!
Scott Rich on the front page
Trinity BS 2012; University of Michigan PhD 2018
Duke Chronicle, Sports Online Editor: 2010-2012
K-Ville Blue Tenting 2009-2012
Unofficial Brian Zoubek Biographer
If you have questions about Michigan Basketball/Football, I'm your man!
I cannot join anyone in blaming the coaches for this game, since that was one of the best halftime adjustments ever. We just got tight at the end, and they had a mature guard to lean on.
Louisville was not going to let us beat them with the three, and our guards weren't experienced enough to adjust. I think there was a good reason to take Williams out, since being denied the three meant that we had to have space inside to work. The only change I would have preferred would have been to double Jones before he picked up his dribble and was ready to shoot.
We can still make the NCAA tourney. We just need to get 3 or 4 more wins and hope other teams lose, instead of having it completely in our control.
Hurt couldn’t win the game on his own because he stopped getting the ball on offense late in the game, especially in OT. Inexplicable.
What’s most disappointing here to me was that they clawed back, then choked a bit at the FT line down the stretch, got a gift of a FT miss by Jones, couldn’t secure the rebound, so they went into OT.
Then the kid from L’Ville who shoots 24% from 3 drains a 3 to start OT and they never looked back, even though they were down their best big and had Johnson foul out. The opportunity was there but Duke couldn’t finish.
For those asking why Williams wasn’t playing at the end of regulation or in OT, in his postgame presser, Coach K indicated the reason why Williams wasn’t playing was because Duke couldn’t press if Williams was in the game ...