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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Y

    Context. Context. Context. This was a tough loss but it doesn’t end our season by any means.
    Well yes, context. But we keep receiving inane lectures about how the context doesn't matter because the bubble is weak.

  2. #62
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    Back down to Earth. It’s been nice to enjoy some hope for a little while.

  3. #63
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    Goidwire, Steward, and Roach all looked strong in the last game. But today they regressed to the mean, despite--as far as one could tell--working hard, other than in the disjointed early minutes of the game. Roach in particular didn't seem to be clicking today. We needed something offensively from someone other than Hurt to make this game work.

    Agree with those who would have liked to see even more of Williams, especially given the lack of success from the three guard lineup. Regardless of what happens from here (which I don't feel optimistic about--though I acknowledge there is still a chance, if maybe only in the Dumb and Dumber sense), I'm very much looking forward to seeing what Williams can do next year.

    I'd like to see what Hurt could do at Duke next year, too, but I don't expect to--unless he just has a really strong desire to get a college degree in the normal number of years, I can't see why he would stay, as I doubt he will be able to improve his NBA prospects with another year of college play. He has really been playing well over the last stretch--may be the player who has benefited most from Jalen Johnson's departure, as he is the first offensive option and, on defense, he gets better match-ups.

    This was a tough one.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBlue View Post
    I will do what fans do and jump on this point in agreement. It's not surprising given K's proclivities demonstrated year upon year. I can't question his rationale because I don't know why he prefers shorter lineups at times, he must have his reasons. But Duke was heavily exploited by Jones driving to the lane late in the game, with a weak inside presence.

    I'm more comfortable saying that the guard play was atrocious. Someone asked during the game thread why Joey Baker, wide open in the corner, was overlooked. That's an easier question to answer, first in part, freshmen doing freshmen things, but also because none of Duke's guards are distributors. When it comes to the instinctive nature of being a ball distributor, there is nothing remotely close to a Bobby Hurley on this team. Steward and Roach are far more offensive minded and look to get to the rim and pop out for 3s. That in part is by design, but when Roach and Steward aren't hitting their shots, their role in the offense is a net negative. Goldwire fills the role of distributor somewhat but he delivered two passes to Williams, one down on the blocks and one out between the top of the foul circle and center court that Louisville stole by coming over the top. Those TOs were completely on Goldwire. Any decent point guard should be able to deliver the ball to a guy as big as Williams who has his defender on his back/hip. Fundamentally that was just bad playmaking on Jordan's part.
    Those turnovers by Goldwire to Williams were really bad..just don't understand this perimeter offense we are constantly trying to play...the point of having Williams is to have him post up...pass it to him, pass back out or take the shot...have playing cut down the middle or he passes to the wing...imo
    https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/1015033823711711237

    “It’s like a movie,” Williamson said. “You say you want to be a part of it, but when you’re actually here, it’s a movie...

    “For somebody like me, coming down on a fast break, an in-and-out crossover, and that moment where I jump and glide to the rim and lay it in, for me, it’s like poetry in motion,” he said. “I feel like I was in slow motion, and it’s just poetry.” Salisbury Post 12.20.18

  5. #65
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is online now Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Well yes, context. But we keep receiving inane lectures about how the context doesn't matter because the bubble is weak.
    That’s not what my posts mean at all. They do mean that the posters saying that our at large chances are over because of this loss are overreacting. We remain right on the edge of the field with two games and the tourney to go, and in those games we have more opportunities for impressive wins than any team besides MSU. We control our fate.
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  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    That’s not what my posts mean at all. They do mean that the posters saying that our at large chances are over because of this loss are overreacting. We remain right on the edge of the field with two games and the tourney to go, and in those games we have more opportunities for impressive wins than any team besides MSU. We control our fate.
    I just checked and Duke is listed on the “next four out” on ESPN on Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology ...

  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    That’s not what my posts mean at all. They do mean that the posters saying that our at large chances are over because of this loss are overreacting. We remain right on the edge of the field with two games and the tourney to go, and in those games we have more opportunities for impressive wins than any team besides MSU. We control our fate.
    Scott, I feel the question to ask is, what is our realistic chance of an at-large bid? I sure as heck want a 12-game win streak from here on out. But to me, likely path is split the next two, win at least two in the ACCT. We're 14-11 at that point. Is that enough to get in to the tourney? Smarter, more quantitative minds on this board may tell me otherwise, but I feel like we're on the outside looking in at that point.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    Team played hard but could not execute and stop Jones. Great night by Hurt. Would be great to have him back next year. A tourney berth will require a great ACC tourney. Team missed a golden opportunity tonight. A great point guard makes a huge difference.
    5 on 1. Hurt could not win game on his own. Louisville beat us in OT. They were so much better than Duke. Steward,Moore,Roach,Brakefield and Goldwire were not sharp. Lucky to make OT. Execution was mediocre.Williams held his own except in blocking out and making hustle plays. Rebounding was really poor.

  9. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Definitely won’t be easy. Doable, but far from easy.
    “We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, ..." JFK 9/12/62

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by gep View Post
    “We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, ..." JFK 9/12/62
    Those were the days. Sigh...

  11. #71
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    It was horrible how we fought back from down ten and then used the press at the end to keep them off-track. You're right, K should hang it up.

    Get for real.

    I would have liked to see Williams more late, but K can't go out and get rebounds for us or defend.
    Quote Originally Posted by goduke03861 View Post
    But Williams could...that's kind of the point isn't it?
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Agree to disagree. I see this season as an astonishing accomplishment for K. This team was so far off the rails three weeks ago, and win or lose today doesn't change that.

    You are entitled to your opinion, so enjoy it I guess. I'll be rooting my rear off for this team to make sure he tournament and win some more games.
    Quote Originally Posted by goduke03861 View Post
    My desire to see the team grow and win is why it is so frustrating to see poor personnel decisions in a winnable game with players that will be needed for seasons to come. No one can possibly say that benching our 7 ft tall leading shot blocker in a game we couldn't rebound or protect the rim was a smart call. It flat out cost the team the game.
    I agree with GoDuke is 100% here. Moreover, Mtn Devil—your last post above is a cop out. “Agree to disagree/I’m rooting for the team.” He’s making a point on personnel decisions and thinks we should have gone big instead of small. Why do you believe we should stay small? Get more sophisticated than “well I’m rooting for the team.”

    We are all rooting for the team, but in a game where we were out rebounded 41-33, beat on the O-boards 15-7, and beat on points in the paint 44-30...yea I think benching our best defensive post presence late is a complete mistake. What’s your argument against that?

    (Addt’l arguments in favor of staying big include: 1) this completely exposes Matt Hurt to get abused and take unnecessary fouls...2) you can make an argument for going small if your guards are playing well, but has been pointed out ad nauseum: they were playing quite poorly: 3-18fg & 4/5 a/to for Roach & Steward).

    I mean you said it Mtn. Devil: K can’t go rebound or defend—but Williams can! So why go small? What’s your argument beyond you are rooting for the team? You can root for the team and disagree with Coach’s decisions. Speaking of...

    K made two other critical mistakes that no one is discussing and completely defy logic:

    1) He had Roach guarding the last few possessions—WHY?! Goldwire only had 3 fouls and should have been on him
    2) He had Hurt in on a must foul situation with ~20 seconds left in OT, despite having 4 fouls and a Timeout. He should have subbed him out and would have the had the chance to put him back in even if we got a steal

  12. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Agree to disagree. I see this season as an astonishing accomplishment for K. This team was so far off the rails three weeks ago, and win or lose today doesn't change that.

    You are entitled to your opinion, so enjoy it I guess. I'll be rooting my rear off for this team to make sure he tournament and win some more games.
    +1000
    Last edited by devilirium; 02-27-2021 at 09:58 PM. Reason: Fgf

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    I just checked and Duke is listed on the “next four out” on ESPN on Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology ...
    As many have said, Lunardi is not especially accurate when it comes to predicting the bracket relative to other prognosticators. He just gets the pub because he’s on ESPN. If you look at BracketMatrix, he’s 55th in accuracy over the past 5 years out of 133 projectors. Also remember bracketology is a snapshot of this exact moment.

    Quote Originally Posted by simplyluvin View Post
    Scott, I feel the question to ask is, what is our realistic chance of an at-large bid? I sure as heck want a 12-game win streak from here on out. But to me, likely path is split the next two, win at least two in the ACCT. We're 14-11 at that point. Is that enough to get in to the tourney? Smarter, more quantitative minds on this board may tell me otherwise, but I feel like we're on the outside looking in at that point.
    I think if we win our last two we’re more likely than not to make the tourney, especially since that means we’ll have swept GT, one of our competitors. If we split the last two regular season games and win one in the ACCT, I think our chances are slightly below a coin flip and depend a lot on what happens to the bubble teams in the B1G and Big East down the stretch. If we split and win two in the ACCT I think we’re above a coin flip chance. Any more than that and I think we’re comfortably in.

    We all are keeping the perspective that we have had in the past when we’re hunting a No. 1 seed where a loss hurts so much more since all the competition are more likely than not to win. The bubble teams that aren’t mid-majors are all hanging around .500 in their conference, meaning they’re likely to lose down the stretch, and have the potential to implode and lost multiple games. Case and point: Minnesota and Indiana were both thought safely in a mere week ago, and now likely both have major uphill battles after hitting really tough stretches in the B1G schedule.

    Breathe, and remember we have at least two more Q1 opportunities this week.
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  14. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    As many have said, Lunardi actually tends to be below average when it comes to predicting the bracket relative to other prognosticators. He just gets the pub because he’s on ESPN. This is also a snapshot of this exact moment.



    I think if we win our last two we’re more likely than not to make the tourney, especially since that means we’ll have swept GT, one of our competitors. If we split the last two regular season games and win one in the ACCT, I think our chances are slightly below a coin flip and depend a lot on what happens to the bubble teams in the B1G and Big East down the stretch. If we split and win two in the ACCT I think we’re above a coin flip chance. Any more than that and I think we’re comfortably in.

    We all are keeping the perspective that we have had in the past when we’re hunting a No. 1 seed where a loss hurts so much more since all the competition are more likely than not to win. The bubble teams that aren’t mid-majors are all hanging around .500 in their conference, meaning they’re likely to lose down the stretch, and have the potential to implode and lost multiple games. Case and point: Minnesota and Indiana were both thought safely in a mere week ago, and now likely both have major uphill battles after hitting really tough stretches in the B1G schedule.

    Breathe, and remember we have at least two more Q1 opportunities this week.
    Got it, you should try to take his job! You seem good at it!

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    I agree with GoDuke is 100% here. Moreover, Mtn Devil—your last post above is a cop out. “Agree to disagree/I’m rooting for the team.” He’s making a point on personnel decisions and thinks we should have gone big instead of small. Why do you believe we should stay small? Get more sophisticated than “well I’m rooting for the team.”

    We are all rooting for the team, but in a game where we were out rebounded 41-33, beat on the O-boards 15-7, and beat on points in the paint 44-30...yea I think benching our best defensive post presence late is a complete mistake. What’s your argument against that?

    (Addt’l arguments in favor of staying big include: 1) this completely exposes Matt Hurt to get abused and take unnecessary fouls...2) you can make an argument for going small if your guards are playing well, but has been pointed out ad nauseum: they were playing quite poorly: 3-18fg & 4/5 a/to for Roach & Steward).

    I mean you said it Mtn. Devil: K can’t go rebound or defend—but Williams can! So why go small? What’s your argument beyond you are rooting for the team? You can root for the team and disagree with Coach’s decisions. Speaking of...

    K made two other critical mistakes that no one is discussing and completely defy logic:

    1) He had Roach guarding the last few possessions—WHY?! Goldwire only had 3 fouls and should have been on him
    2) He had Hurt in on a must foul situation with ~20 seconds left in OT, despite having 4 fouls and a Timeout. He should have subbed him out and would have the had the chance to put him back in even if we got a steal
    I agree completely about Roach on Jones in OT. Roach is our worst perimeter defender. Strange decision.

  16. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    Got it, you should try to take his job! You seem good at it!
    I’m not sure if that was sarcasm or genuine, but I always give the benefit of the doubt so will assume the latter I do my best being the amateur bracketologist around here, haha.
    Scott Rich on the front page

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  17. #77

    l

    I cannot join anyone in blaming the coaches for this game, since that was one of the best halftime adjustments ever. We just got tight at the end, and they had a mature guard to lean on.

    Louisville was not going to let us beat them with the three, and our guards weren't experienced enough to adjust. I think there was a good reason to take Williams out, since being denied the three meant that we had to have space inside to work. The only change I would have preferred would have been to double Jones before he picked up his dribble and was ready to shoot.

    We can still make the NCAA tourney. We just need to get 3 or 4 more wins and hope other teams lose, instead of having it completely in our control.

  18. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by heyman25 View Post
    5 on 1. Hurt could not win game on his own. Louisville beat us in OT. They were so much better than Duke. Steward,Moore,Roach,Brakefield and Goldwire were not sharp. Lucky to make OT. Execution was mediocre.Williams held his own except in blocking out and making hustle plays. Rebounding was really poor.
    Hurt couldn’t win the game on his own because he stopped getting the ball on offense late in the game, especially in OT. Inexplicable.

    What’s most disappointing here to me was that they clawed back, then choked a bit at the FT line down the stretch, got a gift of a FT miss by Jones, couldn’t secure the rebound, so they went into OT.

    Then the kid from L’Ville who shoots 24% from 3 drains a 3 to start OT and they never looked back, even though they were down their best big and had Johnson foul out. The opportunity was there but Duke couldn’t finish.

  19. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevilStop View Post
    Recapping a highly disappointing loss and five observations. It is a shame this incredible Matthew Hurt performance resulted in a loss.

    https://bluedevilstop.com/dukes-tour...to-louisville/
    Kind of unseemly for you to post your articles here, don’t you think?

  20. #80
    For those asking why Williams wasn’t playing at the end of regulation or in OT, in his postgame presser, Coach K indicated the reason why Williams wasn’t playing was because Duke couldn’t press if Williams was in the game ...

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