MBB: Duke vs Louisville (Sat 2/27, 6:00 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[UrinalCake]

It seems fitting that UNC got to play them short-handed and coming off a long break while we get them at full strength. I’m intrigued by the Mark Williams - Malik Williams matchup. This should be a great test for our Williams, he has really come on playing against mostly smaller front courts so I want to see how he does against comparable size. I feel like we’re due for Hurt to come back down to earth a bit and agree with Wander that it wouldn’t hurt for us to diversify our offense a bit.

The team is playing great and needs to keep it going. I hate that Jordan doesn’t get his senior day send off after all he’s done for the program.

[jv001]

Conference stats look a little different:

1) Hurt... 48.1% on 38-79
2) Baker... 40.0% on 12-30
3) Steward... 35.4% on 28-79
4) Goldwire... 34.4% on 11-32
5) Moore... 31.9% on 15-47
6) Roach... 30.5% on 18-59
7) Brakefield... 29.4% on 5-17

Our last six games are even more interesting:

1) Hurt... 56.3% on 18-32
2) Baker... 44.4% on 8-18
3) Goldwire... 44.4% on 4-9
4) Roach... 41.7% on 10-24
5) Steward... 39.3% on 11-28
6) Brakefield... 37.5% on 3-8
7) Moore... 26.3% on 5-19

Overall, Duke is shooting 37.5% in conference play, including 44.3% in our last six games. Our recent play as a top 5 offense (last 8 games) has been fueled largely by our hot 3pt shooting. Whether this is real (and thus we really might be a top 5 offense) or a mirage is one of the big questions to answer down the stretch and into the postseason.

I'm hoping our recent shooting has more to do with having players that can shoot well from distance and not being lucky. I think Matthew is our most consistent three point shooter and DJ had a reputation as a good shooter coming out of high school. Roach has shown he's got confidence in his shot and is not afraid to take the shot if left open. It's also good to see Baker making a few lately. Moore is obviously our worst three point shooter.

GoDuke!

[BlueDevilStop]

Can Duke extend the winning streak to five games?

Game preview:

https://bluedevilstop.com/duke-vs-lo...-game-preview/

[CDu]

It seems fitting that UNC got to play them short-handed and coming off a long break while we get them at full strength. I’m intrigued by the Mark Williams - Malik Williams matchup. This should be a great test for our Williams, he has really come on playing against mostly smaller front courts so I want to see how he does against comparable size. I feel like we’re due for Hurt to come back down to earth a bit and agree with Wander that it wouldn’t hurt for us to diversify our offense a bit.

The team is playing great and needs to keep it going. I hate that Jordan doesn’t get his senior day send off after all he’s done for the program.

To be fair, we did play Louisville when they were shorthanded earlier this season. We didn’t face Williams, while UNC did.

That said, it does sound like Johnson will play against us tomorrow, so Louisville will be close to full strength.

As for Goldwire, he will have the opportunity for a senior night send off next year if he so chooses.

[Kedsy]

I've been a bit worried about our offense despite the high kenpom ranking. It just seems soooooo dependent on one player (Hurt) being especially efficient, and despite improvement in many other areas recently, we have shown no sign of life in addressing our horrendous inability to draw fouls.

I completely agree with this. I'm also concerned that if our shooting is off (especially Hurt's), our offense will look a lot more like the mediocre performances we saw earlier in the season.

[CDu]

I completely agree with this. I'm also concerned that if our shooting is off (especially Hurt's), our offense will look a lot more like the mediocre performances we saw earlier in the season.

Yeah, we may very well need to win like we won against Ga Tech at least once over the next 3. I do think we are a better shooting team than we were earlier in the season, but also not as good as we have been lately.

[gofurman]

Yeah, we may very well need to win like we won against Ga Tech at least once over the next 3. I do think we are a better shooting team than we were earlier in the season, but also not as good as we have been lately.

I have been watching those FT numbers too. Granted, it's cyclical as if we make shots you probably aren't as likely to get fouled. Still, we do seem a little reliant on the 3 recently and I would prefer to see us driving and on the line more

[DukieInBrasil]

I have been watching those FT numbers too. Granted, it's cyclical as if we make shots you probably aren't as likely to get fouled. Still, we do seem a little reliant on the 3 recently and I would prefer to see us driving and on the line more

Matt Hurt is our leading FG shooter, and maker, and his game is not geared towards generating FT shots, but i'm not sure that the bolded part is really true. Drawing fouls depends much more on what type of shots a team (or player) takes. Matt loves set 3FGs and fade-away jumpers, neither of which draw fouls. However, he's had at least one and-1 play in each of the last couple of games that suggest that he could get to the line more often if he put his mind to it. Also, however, his FT% is quite weak for such a good overall shooter, so taking more FTs might actually reduce his offensive efficiency (although drawing fouls on the opponent does other desirable things for the team).
As far as the driving to get to the line more, i agree, but both DJ and Jeremy drive quite a bit and don't draw fouls very often. Which is perplexing to me b/c they seem to draw enough contact to go sprawling on the ground fairly regularly. Not that every type of contact is a foul, but some players are awarded a foul when the defender just thinks about them, while others (Zion) can be held and hacked and not get fouls called.
Big men in the post tend to draw lots of FTAs as well and now that Mark Williams is playing a lot more, perhaps his presence will generate more FTAs. After a quick review, he's taken 8 FTs in the last 5 games, and hit 6, raising his FT% to 59% on the season. One of the 5 games he only played 7 minutes, and 2 of the other games were against teams who don't foul much due to their defensive scheme, so it's hard to say whether Mark's increased role is really increasing the foul rate of our opponents.
Anyway, yes, i would like to see Duke be more effective at getting our opponents into foul trouble, and taking more FTs.

[budwom]

5.5 pt favorites it would appear, for what that's worth.

[MChambers]

5.5 pt favorites it would appear, for what that's worth.

Exactly the same as TRank predicts, 73-68, Duke with a 71% chance of winning.

[roywhite]

I'm hoping our recent shooting has more to do with having players that can shoot well from distance and not being lucky. I think Matthew is our most consistent three point shooter and DJ had a reputation as a good shooter coming out of high school. Roach has shown he's got confidence in his shot and is not afraid to take the shot if left open. It's also good to see Baker making a few lately. Moore is obviously our worst three point shooter.

GoDuke!

I completely agree with this. I'm also concerned that if our shooting is off (especially Hurt's), our offense will look a lot more like the mediocre performances we saw earlier in the season.

Yeah, can't expect Hurt to shoot 70% or better consistently and no guarantee that outside shooting in general won't hit a cold spell.

But the emergence of Mark Williams has changed the offense to add an inside scorer and to change the spacing favorably for the other players. Getting good quality shots is a big step toward offensive success and consistency.

[hallcity]

This is the game usually called “senior day.” I guess that Buckmire will be honored before the game but what about Goldwire? Maybe he’s ready to move on with his life. Maybe he feels that he’d have a more realistic shot at the NBA if he stays on at Duke for another year. Maybe he’s still not sure. Do we have any clue? Does senior day even have much meaning in an empty arena? Maybe it would be best to wait to honor this year’s seniors sometime during the next season.

[Kedsy]

Matt Hurt is our leading FG shooter, and maker, and his game is not geared towards generating FT shots, but i'm not sure that the bolded part is really true. Drawing fouls depends much more on what type of shots a team (or player) takes. Matt loves set 3FGs and fade-away jumpers, neither of which draw fouls. However, he's had at least one and-1 play in each of the last couple of games that suggest that he could get to the line more often if he put his mind to it. Also, however, his FT% is quite weak for such a good overall shooter, so taking more FTs might actually reduce his offensive efficiency (although drawing fouls on the opponent does other desirable things for the team).
As far as the driving to get to the line more, i agree, but both DJ and Jeremy drive quite a bit and don't draw fouls very often. Which is perplexing to me b/c they seem to draw enough contact to go sprawling on the ground fairly regularly. Not that every type of contact is a foul, but some players are awarded a foul when the defender just thinks about them, while others (Zion) can be held and hacked and not get fouls called.
Big men in the post tend to draw lots of FTAs as well and now that Mark Williams is playing a lot more, perhaps his presence will generate more FTAs. After a quick review, he's taken 8 FTs in the last 5 games, and hit 6, raising his FT% to 59% on the season. One of the 5 games he only played 7 minutes, and 2 of the other games were against teams who don't foul much due to their defensive scheme, so it's hard to say whether Mark's increased role is really increasing the foul rate of our opponents.
Anyway, yes, i would like to see Duke be more effective at getting our opponents into foul trouble, and taking more FTs.

Only five teams in Division I have a lower free throw rate than Duke does (22.3%; we're tied with Virginia for #341 in the country in FTR). The #243 team has a free throw rate of 28.9%; Duke's highest individual FTR is Mark Williams, at 28.8%. Our best player at drawing fouls used to be Jalen Johnson (34.9% free throw rate). In the three games since Jalen opted out, our FTR has been 21.3%, 17.6%, and 10.9%, in that order. The trend is not in our favor for this statistic.

In other words (a) it's not just Matthew Hurt (who is our 2nd-best at drawing fouls), (b) Mark Williams isn't going to save our free throw rate, and (c) it's not really a matter of officiating.

DUKE PLAYERS' INDIVIDUAL FTR
Mark Williams, 28.8%
Matthew Hurt, 26.7%
Patrick Tapé, 25.0%
Jeremy Roach, 21.9%
Henry Coleman, 21.4%
DJ Steward, 20.9%
Wendell Moore, 20.4%
Jaemyn Brakefield, 16.4%
Jordan Goldwire, 15.0%
Joey Baker, 5.6%

For comparison's sake, last season we were #93 in free throw rate at 35.6%. In the 21 seasons between 1997 and 2017, our lowest free throw rate was 37.4%. In 1992, our FTR was 50.4%. Before this season, our lowest FTR since Coach K arrived at Duke was 33.1% in 1995.

[Bluedog]

This is the game usually called “senior day.” I guess that Buckmire will be honored before the game but what about Goldwire? Maybe he’s ready to move on with his life. Maybe he feels that he’d have a more realistic shot at the NBA if he stays on at Duke for another year. Maybe he’s still not sure. Do we have any clue? Does senior day even have much meaning in an empty arena? Maybe it would be best to wait to honor this year’s seniors sometime during the next season.

Love me some JGold, but he will never be on an NBA roster....I don't know the answer to your question about honoring Buckmire and JGold though.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Yeah, can't expect Hurt to shoot 70% or better consistently and no guarantee that outside shooting in general won't hit a cold spell.

But the emergence of Mark Williams has changed the offense to add an inside scorer and to change the spacing favorably for the other players. Getting good quality shots is a big step toward offensive success and consistency.

The outside shooting has also created scoring opportunities around the rim. Jaemyn Brakefield, in particular, has been using all that space to get driving lanes. The threat of shooting well has allowed the team's offense to reach a new level. We'll see how that works against UofL since they allow a ton of 3's per game (313th in 3-point rate allowed) but still have a stout pack-line defense that does not allow for many offensive rebounds. Duke will most likely have to continue its hot shooting from outside to win this one.

[hallcity]

Love me some JGold, but he will never be on an NBA roster...I don't know the answer to your question about honoring Buckmire and JGold though.

You’re probably right about Goldwire but who thought Quinn Cook would be playing in the NBA today? Improve Goldwire’s outside shooting and an NBA career may not be out of the question, at least in Goldwire’s mind.

[DavidBenAkiva]

You’re probably right about Goldwire but who thought Quinn Cook would be playing in the NBA today? Improve Goldwire’s outside shooting and an NBA career may not be out of the question, at least in Goldwire’s mind.

Quinn Cook is a highly-skilled player and one of my all-time favorite Duke players. Goldwire is a good defender that has maximized his skills through effort. The offensive skills have progressed a little in his career, but they are far, far behind where they would need to be to earn an NBA contract. He doesn't shoot well off the dribble, with someone in his face, or when coming off a screen. He does not create for his teammates. He's been serviceable on offense this year and provided a disruptive presence on defense. It's been incredible to watch him grow and improve throughout his time at Duke. I wouldn't put anything past him, but I just don't see him ever being on an NBA roster. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see it.

[sagegrouse]

This is the game usually called “senior day.” I guess that Buckmire will be honored before the game but what about Goldwire? Maybe he’s ready to move on with his life. Maybe he feels that he’d have a more realistic shot at the NBA if he stays on at Duke for another year. Maybe he’s still not sure. Do we have any clue? Does senior day even have much meaning in an empty arena? Maybe it would be best to wait to honor this year’s seniors sometime during the next season.

What's wrong with getting honored twice -- this year and next year?

[Kedsy]

Quinn Cook is a highly-skilled player and one of my all-time favorite Duke players. Goldwire is a good defender that has maximized his skills through effort. The offensive skills have progressed a little in his career, but they are far, far behind where they would need to be to earn an NBA contract. He doesn't shoot well off the dribble, with someone in his face, or when coming off a screen. He does not create for his teammates. He's been serviceable on offense this year and provided a disruptive presence on defense. It's been incredible to watch him grow and improve throughout his time at Duke. I wouldn't put anything past him, but I just don't see him ever being on an NBA roster. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see it.

FWIW, Jordan Goldwire is 6th in the country in steals%, at 4.9% (the top player is at 5.4%). But I agree that he won't sniff the NBA.

[Billy Dat]

It's a big day for our guards, because we've got to try and slow down Carlik Jones who killed us the first time we played. We are playing so much better than we were at the time of the first meeting, and they have only played 4 games since that first meeting and we have played 9. I think that's going to matter.

The atmosphere during this winning streak has taken on NCAA tournament-style pressure because it's basically win-or-go-home. It's such a different experience and makes it really exciting. This team has really impressed me with their fight and improvement. I always root for them like crazy but it's gone up a level because of their prior woes. We've come far, and I don't want the momentum to abate tonight. Let's get a little payback and keep this party going.