MBB: Duke vs Louisville (Sat 2/27, 6:00 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[CDu]

Last home game of the season. Big game pitting two teams fighting for their tourney lives. Pretty close to a must-win for our at-large chances unless we plan to sweep the two Q1 road games next week (which isn't a bad idea anyway). Discuss.

Uggh, time shift and channel shift to 6pm ESPN apparently.

[OldPhiKap]

For those of us with Comcast (and therefore no ACCN), the schools are making it really difficult to give a rip about the conference race.

I can't see the next two games, so I'll find other things to grab my interest.

9F the money-grubbing bastards killing sports.

But yes, I hope Duke wins the next two games and I'll tune in next weekend if they don't move the UNC game to the Ocho or something like that.

[DukieInBrasil]

After getting thoroughly pummeled by the Cheats, 'Ville recovered well to beat ND, so i suspect Duke won't be seeing the inept version of the Cards on display after their COVID time-out. I hope that the Duke team of the 1st half of the UVa and SYR games hangs around to play vs the 'Ville.

[jv001]

I thought this would be a good place to post the team's 3 point shooting stats.

1) Hurt...465% on 47-101
2) Brakefield....393% on 11-28the
3) DJ.... .354% on 35-99
4) Goldwire...333% on 14-42
4) Baker...333% on 13-39
6) Roach...299% on 20-67
7) Moore...286% on 16-56

With our offense utilizing the three ball as a weapon, we'll need for the players to keep making them. While Mark Williams is not a three point shooter, he helps our shooters with the kick out to his open teammates.

GoDuke!

[MartyClark]

After getting thoroughly pummeled by the Cheats, 'Ville recovered well to beat ND, so i suspect Duke won't be seeing the inept version of the Cards on display after their COVID time-out. I hope that the Duke team of the 1st half of the UVa and SYR games hangs around to play vs the 'Ville.

The Cards didn't have David Johnson when they beat ND. He's a good player and he'll be back for Duke apparently

[IrishDevil]

I thought this would be a good place to post the team's 3 point shooting stats.

1) Hurt...465% on 47-101
2) Brakefield...393% on 11-28the
3) DJ... .354% on 35-99
4) Goldwire...333% on 14-42
4) Baker...333% on 13-39
6) Roach...299% on 20-67
7) Moore...286% on 16-56

With our offense utilizing the three ball as a weapon, we'll need for the players to keep making them. While Mark Williams is not a three point shooter, he helps our shooters with the kick out to his open teammates.

GoDuke!

If we shoot above 100% on 3s, does that mean we get more points per shot? I like the idea of Matthew Hurt's shots from distance being worth ~14 points per make. Sounds like we should do nothing but launch from distance against Louisville.

Or is this what they call New Math?

Joking aside, you raise an interesting point about the influence of Mark on the quality of shots our wings get. He may not be much of a threat from the perimeter, but I imagine opponents are not keen to leave him as a lob target down low.

[Tripping William]

For those of us with Comcast (and therefore no ACCN), the schools are making it really difficult to give a rip about the conference race.

I can't see the next two games, so I'll find other things to grab my interest.

9F the money-grubbing bastards killing sports.

But yes, I hope Duke wins the next two games and I'll tune in next weekend if they don't move the UNC game to the Ocho or something like that.

I'm with you as a general proposition, but this game (as CDu notes above) has been moved to ESPN, so I'm guessing you can see it (unless the Virtual Pub runs super-long ). The thread title should perhaps be updated to reflect correct time and TV station info.

[CDu]

We've seen Louisville once already, but both teams look different now than they did back in late January. Louisville has added their star big man Malik Williams (6'11", 250lb senior). At the same time, they've dealt with COVID issues for the past month, and as such they've had several postponements this month. Still, they are a good team when healthy and they are like us looking for key wins down the stretch.

Defensively, Louisville plays a version of the pack-line defense under Chris Mack. It isn't nearly as good a defense as UVa's typically is, and it's strengths are slightly different than UVa's strengths. Like UVa, they don't force turnovers and they allow a lot of 3s. Unlike UVa, they hold their opponents to a fairly low 3pt percentage and also aren't a great defensive rebounding team (not bad, but not great. Also unlike UVa, they don't defend 2pt shots as well and they don't block shots (although Williams should help a bit there), and they are a bit more foul prone. Offensively, they aren't great. They shoot the 3 poorly and rarely, and the one thing they do well is offensive rebound. With Williams returning, that should be a concern for us as we've struggled on the defensive glass lately. The offense relies heavily on their two star guards, each of whom is very effective off the dribble.

I will say though that it is extremely difficult to give a thorough assessment of the scouting report as they continue to shuffle guys in and out. But, here goes.

Centers: Malik Williams is the go-to guy here. He returned last weekend against UNC and returned to the strarting lineup against Notre Dame. Williams is a very long and athletic big with a pretty good jumper for his size. He hasn't shot the 3 as well as an upperclassman, but he's quite capable out to the 3pt line. Defensively, he's a stout rebounder and capable shotbocker, although the shotblocking hasn't materialized under Mack's system. Still, he's an experienced player and a high-level recruit capable of highlight plays on either end of the floor. Behind Williams in theory is Aidan Igiehon (6'10", 245lb sophmore from Ireland). Igiehon is chiseled from granite and a fantastic run/jump athlete in addition to being extremely strong. But he grew up playing soccer and as such his bball skills are a bit lagging. He came to the US for high school to play bball, and his size and athleticism made him a top-50 recruit. So at some point in the not too distant future he should make an impact at the college level. That said, he's not played for 2 months despite having returned to practice recently. No idea if he'll play this weekend. If he doesn't play, the backup center becomes Gabe Wiznitzer (6'11", 240lb frosh). Wiznitzer reclassified into the 2020 graduating class, he's a year or two away as well. He has size and is very willing to crash the offensive glass, but aside from that he's just not there yet.

Forwards: Jae'lyn Withers (6'8", 230lb redshirt freshman) has been playing center for most of the season for the Cards. He has done a fantastic job in that role, despite being a bit undersized for the role. The return of Williams should help Withers both in terms of his foul difficulties and his role. Withers is an elite rebounder on both ends, with good strength and athleticism and high-end effort. He also has pretty good range, although the majority of his damage comes near the basket. Withers fits nicely on the back line of the pack line as well, and gives high effort and physicality defensively. He doesn't dribble well and he doesn't pass on offense, very much staying in his lane. Defensively, he's a rebounder and banger pretty exclusively. Behind Withers is Quinn Slazinski (6'8", 220lb soph). Slazinski is a stretch 4 whose 3pt shot hasn't quite made it to the ACC level yet. He's not terribly athletic and not a dynamic offensive player, but in a catch-and-shoot role he has potential. For the Cards, catch-and-shoot is really all they ask from him. Behind those two guys is JJ Traynor (6'8", 200lb frosh). Traynor is a string bean pogo stick with a decent midrange jumper. He lacks ACC-level strength, but with time his combination of length and athleticism should make him a very effective college 4. If the shooting range continues to develop, look out. Traynor's role has trimmed with the return of Williams. If Igiehon returns as well, it's possible Traynor won't play at all in this one.

Wings: With the return of Williams, Louisville is suddenly well stocked again on the wings. Samuell Williamson (6'7", 210lb soph) returns to his more natural position along with Dre Davis (6'5", 220lb frosh). Williamson is a former McDonald's All-American with good length and athleticism. He was being asked to play up this year with the absence of Louisville's bigs, but with Williams back he can return to the perimeter. Inside, he's a bit overmatched physically, but on the perimeter his length can be a real asset. Williamson is a streaky shooter from 3 but a good player in the midrange and a guy who is not afraid to go to the rim. He doesn't draw a lot of fouls, but he plays hard and has talent. Davis is not overly explosive athletically, but is very strong and capable. He's still adapting to the college 3pt line, but projects to be good from deep with experience. So far this season, though, he's shot it fairly poorly (24.4%, despite a 75.6% FT%). Davis shoots the midrange shot well and the FTs well, so it seems just a matter of time before the 3 starts to fall. Both have generally been starters, but depending upon player availability Davis may find himself coming off the bench Saturday. If healthy again, Josh Nickleberry (6'4" 205lb soph) can give them spot minutes as well. Nickelberry is strictly 3-and-D type, although the "3" hasn't yet arrived. He has good stregnth and leaping ability, and is theoretically a decent straight-line driver. But he almost exclusively camps out at the 3pt line as the Louisville guards run the show. The only other option is Charles Minlend (6'4", 210lb grad transfer from San Francisco). Minlend was a good scorer on the West Coast, but the step up in competition has been too much for him. He rarely plays, and only if multiple guards/wings are out.

Guards: The Cards' offense isn't great, but that isn't the fault of their guards. Both are All-ACC caliber. Carlik Jones (6'1", 185lb grad transfer from Radford) runs the show primarily. Jones is a fearless attacker of the rim who pretty evenly distributes his shots between at the rim, midrange, and the 3pt line. He's more of a volume scorer than a shooter, with the exception of his FT stroke which is excellent. But he has supreme confidence and can get hot from 3, and when he does he's almost impossible to guard. He's also a terrific rebounder for his size, and great at creating shots for others. Jones plays more physically than his size would suggest, and is just a great example of the value of the grad transfer. There is a pretty good chance he makes 1st Team All-ACC, and we should be quite familiar with him as he torched us down the stretch in the first game. Alongside Jones, if he's available*, is David Johnson (6'5", 210lb soph from Louisville). Johnson is an incredibly versatile player with size, athleticism, strength, and skill. He can defend 4 positions (he was the guy who guarded Hurt in the second half of the first game), can run the offense or play off ball, can post up or shoot the 3. If it weren't for Jones, we'd be talking about him as a potential 1st Team All-ACC guy running the show. Johnson hits 40% of his 3s, and can finish at the rim as well. The only negative I can say is that he falls in love with his midrange shot, which isn't great, and as a result doesn't get to the FT line as much as his skills suggest. The guy can pass, can handle, and can score. He's a really complete player. HOWEVER, he missed the game against Notre Dame for undisclosed reasons, which puts his availability in doubt. If he plays, Louisville will be as healthy and deep as they have been all season. If he doesn't, that's a big blow to the Cards.

So, yeah, lots of questions to be answered about Louisville's roster. Johnson, Igiehon, and Nickelberry have uncertain status. It's a borderline must-win for us and pretty similar for them, so we are going to have to bring it on Saturday!

[CDu]

I'm with you as a general proposition, but this game (as CDu notes above) has been moved to ESPN, so I'm guessing you can see it (unless the Virtual Pub runs super-long ). The thread title should perhaps be updated to reflect correct time and TV station info.

Yes, they have yanked this game around both in time and station. Mods, can you please update to 6pm and ESPN?

[OldPhiKap]

I'm with you as a general proposition, but this game (as CDu notes above) has been moved to ESPN, so I'm guessing you can see it (unless the Virtual Pub runs super-long ). The thread title should perhaps be updated to reflect correct time and TV station info.

Thanks, that is excellent news!

Sorry CDu, I didn’t see your line about that.

[DukieInBrasil]

If we shoot above 100% on 3s, does that mean we get more points per shot? I like the idea of Matthew Hurt's shots from distance being worth ~14 points per make. Sounds like we should do nothing but launch from distance against Louisville.

Or is this what they call New Math?

Joking aside, you raise an interesting point about the influence of Mark on the quality of shots our wings get. He may not be much of a threat from the perimeter, but I imagine opponents are not keen to leave him as a lob target down low.

Mark has drilled the jumper from the key a couple of times this year, and if L'ville decides to defend him out to there it could also open some driving lanes for the guards/wings. He might have to hit it from there before they make the decision to defend it, but it's good for Duke that he has that in his tool box.

[kidA]

Thanks, that is excellent news!

Sorry CDu, I didn’t see your line about that.

Old Phi Kap, eh? What year? I’m class of 87

[BlueDevilStop]

Another must win! Hopefully Duke can take care of the ball much better than in the first matchup.

[DavidBenAkiva]

This is a really young Louisville team with lots of moving parts that has been wildly inconsistent. I guess that's not surprising.

According to KenPom, Louisville is 338th in experience. They had a nearly three-week layoff in February due to COVID. Add to that the injuries to Malik Williams with their young frontcourt, and you see huge swings from game to game. They were just crushed by North Carolina, 99-54 but then bounced back without David Johnson and beat ND 69-57. From what I've seen online, Johnson missed the ND game due to a non-COVID illness. No idea if that will affect things for him on Saturday. I would expect to see him play unless we found out otherwise.

One thing to note about this Louisville team is that they have been pretty bad on the road. At 12-5 overall, they are 3-4 away from the Yum! Center. I guess the road is their Yuck! Center. Their 3 wins came against Pitt, BC, and Wake. Their road losses include that UNC blowout as well as a big loss to Wisconsin back in December, 85-48. They are just not playing well on the road.

One other thing is the impact of having Mark Williams. He can guard Malik Williams and will challenge others around the rim, too. While Malik Williams is a mature player and can be a tough interior presence, Mark Williams has shown that his length can bother anyone and he's more than capable of securing the rebound. Neither Williams appeared in the January matchup. That will be an interesting battle within the matchup.

[OldPhiKap]

Old Phi Kap, eh? What year? I’m class of 87

‘88. Shoot me a PM if you don’t mind us both knowing who we are.

[Kedsy]

I thought this would be a good place to post the team's 3 point shooting stats.

1) Hurt...465% on 47-101
2) Brakefield...393% on 11-28the
3) DJ... .354% on 35-99
4) Goldwire...333% on 14-42
4) Baker...333% on 13-39
6) Roach...299% on 20-67
7) Moore...286% on 16-56

With our offense utilizing the three ball as a weapon, we'll need for the players to keep making them. While Mark Williams is not a three point shooter, he helps our shooters with the kick out to his open teammates.

GoDuke!

Conference stats look a little different:

1) Hurt... 48.1% on 38-79
2) Baker... 40.0% on 12-30
3) Steward... 35.4% on 28-79
4) Goldwire... 34.4% on 11-32
5) Moore... 31.9% on 15-47
6) Roach... 30.5% on 18-59
7) Brakefield... 29.4% on 5-17

Our last six games are even more interesting:

1) Hurt... 56.3% on 18-32
2) Baker... 44.4% on 8-18
3) Goldwire... 44.4% on 4-9
4) Roach... 41.7% on 10-24
5) Steward... 39.3% on 11-28
6) Brakefield... 37.5% on 3-8
7) Moore... 26.3% on 5-19

Overall, Duke is shooting 37.5% in conference play, including 44.3% in our last six games. Our recent play as a top 5 offense (last 8 games) has been fueled largely by our hot 3pt shooting. Whether this is real (and thus we really might be a top 5 offense) or a mirage is one of the big questions to answer down the stretch and into the postseason.

[Wander]

Overall, Duke is shooting 37.5% in conference play, including 44.3% in our last six games. Our recent play as a top 5 offense (last 8 games) has been fueled largely by our hot 3pt shooting. Whether this is real (and thus we really might be a top 5 offense) or a mirage is one of the big questions to answer down the stretch and into the postseason.

I've been a bit worried about our offense despite the high kenpom ranking. It just seems soooooo dependent on one player (Hurt) being especially efficient, and despite improvement in many other areas recently, we have shown no sign of life in addressing our horrendous inability to draw fouls.

But it's been working, so maybe Hurt's NBA-type shot making is more sustainable than I think.

[Music man55]

I really hope Duke can contain that guard Jones . We need to keep him out of the lane. He killed us in the yum center last month. Also, need to check David Johnson. He can do a lot of damage too. I think coach K has a game plan for those two guys. Let’s go Duke!!!

[gofurman]

Jones is a studd. Better contain him. We couldn’t last time. Not to wish ill will but I hope the other guard does not play. The two of ‘em are quite good

[Nugget]

Jones is a studd. Better contain him. We couldn’t last time. Not to wish ill will but I hope the other guard does not play. The two of ‘em are quite good

Yep, I'm very nervous about this game. Jones is really good and I'm still having nightmares about what David Johnson did to us last year. And, their Williams is a tough matchup for our Williams.

I have no idea what happened in their Covid return game against UNC, but have to assume it should be chalked up as a completely irrelevant outlier, much like Clemson and Baylor stunk coming off of their long layoffs.