MBB: Duke 85, Syracuse 71 Post-Game Thread

[Phredd3]

DEFENSE

dRtg: 1.05 (0.95 adjusted; decent, not close to great, the equivalent of the #51 defense in the country)
DR%: 58.1% (putrid; our worst DR% of the season)


We held Syracuse to poor shooting, and we didn't foul much, but our defensive rebounding and ability to force turnovers left a lot to be desired, for an aggregate of "OK" defense.

I wonder if this has something to do with the "eye test" not always aligning with the stats when it comes to perception of our defense. We have really been falling short in our defensive rebounding, obviously especially in this particular game, but also more generally. I know when I'm watching a game, if we give up an offensive rebound that leads straight to a put-back, I think of it as "bad defense", but when we give up an offensive rebound and the opponent resets, I also mentally reset my defensive assessment to the "new" possession. So I can give mental credit for good defense on the first of those "recycled" possessions, even when the full trip results in an opposing bucket.

But the stats don't give us that kind of credit, as they shouldn't.

Anyway, just a thought.

[CDu]

So this was the equivalent of the #2 team in the country in terms of efficiency margin, and up until garbage time (when Boeheim hit a couple of 3s and a 2 and we had completely turned things off on offense) it was easily a #1 team performance. But after getting an 85-61 lead with 4:23 to go, we completely turned our offense off and allowed a 10-0 "run" over the remainder of the game. Those points of course count, but it does understate how well we played in this game when the outcome was in doubt.

It continues a nice run of games where we've played like the #1 team at State and Wake, like a top-10 team against UVa, and like a top 1 or 2 team against Syracuse. Over our last 10, Torvik has us playing as the #12 team in the country, and that includes 4 clunkers (@Louisville, @Miami, vs Notre Dame, vs UNC). If we can reverse the result against Louisville this weekend, we'll likely jump to having been a top-10 team over our last 10 games.

Not that this matters much in the grand scheme of things, but it should give everyone a sense of just how well this team has been playing lately.

[jv001]

And remember when on offense the ball would just sit in the hands of one or more players on a possession. In the last several games the ball has been whipping around, with purpose. Reminds me of how top NBA teams do it [of course, not at that level]. Really fun to watch.

OH yes, I remember those moments. Usually it was in the hands of Moore or Johnson. I'm glad Coach K threw away the point forward offense and has gone to ball movement. It was great ball movement that got the open threes that the guys knocked down.

In the Sumner front page article, Jim related how they used their time on Sunday to get ready. The team came in around noon and got feed back on the Hoos game, previewed Cuse and then therapy. The team was brought back in around 5:30 because they wanted the team to get past the Virginia game. K said they didn't work hard but thought hard. It looked like it worked as Duke looked to be the fresher team. Well until the last 4 minutes anyway.

I love watching this team is improving and maturing.

GoDuke!

[roge054]

The guys all have the Team First look. That is a good look which results in great basketball. I liked this officiating crew. That is some comment for me.
Please no more Teddy. I saw Roger Ayers and Jamie Luckie calling a Big 12 game over the weekend. Do they no longer call ACC games?

[bluenorth]

The guys all have the Team First look. That is a good look which results in great basketball. I liked this officiating crew. That is some comment for me.
Please no more Teddy. I saw Roger Ayers and Jamie Luckie calling a Big 12 game over the weekend. Do they no longer call ACC games?

I was happy with the refs too. There were a few times when I saw little bumps or hip checks that on other nights could have drawn a whistle. But last night the officials seemed content to "let them play", which I prefer over endless trips to the free throw line.

[sagegrouse]

Terrific offense once again. Our defense looked (eye test alert) fantastic for the first few minutes, but then seemed to sag a little for an overall rank of decent but not great. Still, good enough for a comfortable win.

We held Syracuse to poor shooting, and we didn't foul much, but our defensive rebounding and ability to force turnovers left a lot to be desired, for an aggregate of "OK" defense. Our offense was spectacular, despite turning it over too much and hardly going to the line at all. At this point, Pomeroy has us all the way up to the #11 offense in the country, which is crazy considering how bad our offense was, less than a month ago. In our last 8 games, we've played like a top 5 offense. A lot of that is our suddenly stellar 3pt shooting, but I'm still not sure if that's a mirage or not. Pomeroy ranks our defense #82, though in the last four games we've probably been closer to #30 or so.

One Syracuse defensive tactic that affected the numbers was the Orange's full-court press in the second half. Cuse got a few TO's but also gave up some dunks as Duke reacted to the press.

We got a bit careless in the last four minutes. I remember the great 1991-1992 team turning blowouts into much smaller margins as the players nonchalantly played out the last few minutes. Like against #7 St. John's in Greensboro in December -- we led by 30, I believe, and won by ten.

[throatybeard]

Did anyone catch that the non-Bilas announcer said that Guerrier was 2nd in the Big East in rebounding to Champaignie?
That was funny.

Big East can have Syracuse and Boeheim back as far as I'm concerned. The father. The son is all right, and I love hearing his name.

[azzefkram]

Terrific offense once again. Our defense looked (eye test alert) fantastic for the first few minutes, but then seemed to sag a little for an overall rank of decent but not great. Still, good enough for a comfortable win.

...

We held Syracuse to poor shooting, and we didn't foul much, but our defensive rebounding and ability to force turnovers left a lot to be desired, for an aggregate of "OK" defense. Our offense was spectacular, despite turning it over too much and hardly going to the line at all. At this point, Pomeroy has us all the way up to the #11 offense in the country, which is crazy considering how bad our offense was, less than a month ago. In our last 8 games, we've played like a top 5 offense. A lot of that is our suddenly stellar 3pt shooting, but I'm still not sure if that's a mirage or not. Pomeroy ranks our defense #82, though in the last four games we've probably been closer to #30 or so.

My "eye test" dovetails to what the stats are showing. For much of the first half, the defense was quite stout. Then K had a somewhat wacky line-up in there (I can't remember the exact grouping) and Cuse went on a little run. K put the starters back in and the D improved but not to the level seen earlier in the half. The second half D was adequate, probably a function of the lead and possibly tired legs from a quick turnaround.

The rebounding issues were a function of personnel. Mark is the only good defensive rebounder. Matt and Jaemyn are adequate. Wendell is respectable when at the 3 but poor as a 4.

Overall though a great win with several very good performances on a quick turnaround.

[dukelifer]

I thought Goldwire had an excellent game. Those 2 threes were big and what you want from your senior (who may come back to get a real senior night) when the team is losing focus. Goldwire is a defensive pest and is getting better with his shot. He is maxing out his talent right now. Very happy with his play of late.

[UrinalCake]

I wonder if this has something to do with the "eye test" not always aligning with the stats when it comes to perception of our defense... I know when I'm watching a game, if we give up an offensive rebound that leads straight to a put-back, I think of it as "bad defense", but when we give up an offensive rebound and the opponent resets, I also mentally reset my defensive assessment to the "new" possession.

I have these inherent biases too. If our opponent shoots a three and all our guys are boxing out under the basket ball the ball bounces all the way out to the three point line and lands right into the hands of the other team, I don't consider that to be bad rebounding. If we play great defense and stay with our man and get a hand up in his face and he takes a tough fallaway shot but then makes it, I consider that to be good defense even though the analytics say we gave up a bucket. In theory these things should average out over time - if we always force our opponent to take bad shots then as a whole they should shoot a lower percentage. If we always box out then on paper we should be a better rebounding team. But within a single possession that is certainly not true, and even using a whole game as a sample I think the analytics can be skewed by one or two possessions going the "wrong" way.

[UrinalCake]

How about the combined stat line between Roach and Steward?

35 points on 13-24 FG (8-16 from three), 7rb, 14 assists

If this backcourt stays together for another year I would be pretty excited. And let's not forget Goldwire's 2/3 from 3 (taking them only when left wide open), 4 assists, and his usual excellent D including 2 steals.

[throatybeard]

I have these inherent biases too. If our opponent shoots a three and all our guys are boxing out under the basket ball the ball bounces all the way out to the three point line and lands right into the hands of the other team, I don't consider that to be bad rebounding. If we play great defense and stay with our man and get a hand up in his face and he takes a tough fallaway shot but then makes it, I consider that to be good defense even though the analytics say we gave up a bucket. In theory these things should average out over time - if we always force our opponent to take bad shots then as a whole they should shoot a lower percentage. If we always box out then on paper we should be a better rebounding team. But within a single possession that is certainly not true, and even using a whole game as a sample I think the analytics can be skewed by one or two possessions going the "wrong" way.

Exactly--for advanced metrics, one game (and especially one half) is a tiny sample, and for one game they don't tell you all that much more than the count/rate stats do. You might as well bring a rocket launcher to target practice on the back forty.

[simplyluvin]

Mark Williams emergence has been awesome to watch. Notwithstanding the UVA game, his emergence on the defensive end especially corresponds well with our play over our current win streak. Mark's dRtg is the best on the team (interestingly, Jalen's was better), but it's complemented with offensive efficiency as well. Felt like his cleanup buckets really kept our momentum going in the second half where SU could have closed the gap earlier. Really excited to see his further development. If he beefs up and works on his footwork, I feel like he can develop and Landlord-like game in a Zoubek-like frame.

[Edouble]

Was what we saw from Mark Williams tonight what we’d hoped to see from Harry Giles?

What a game! How he runs the floor!

I don't think so. I agree with a poster upthread who said Mark Williams's performance last night is what they'd always hoped to see from Casey Sanders.

Harry Giles was advertised as the next Chris Webber. IMO, we saw flashes of that, but it was never a consistent product.

[FerryFor50]

I was happy with the refs too. There were a few times when I saw little bumps or hip checks that on other nights could have drawn a whistle. But last night the officials seemed content to "let them play", which I prefer over endless trips to the free throw line.

I was fine with the refs last night, too. Moreso about the consistency rather than "letting them play." I'm not a fan of swallowing whistles and letting games get physical, but at least it was evenly called.

Physicality never really came into play last night because Duke couldn't really miss from outside, so they never needed to get inside.

[weezie]

A parting round of applause for Marek Dolezaj. That young man has sure taken a beating during his Syr tenure and he is one tenacious player. What a war horse.

Good luck to him!

[FerryFor50]

A parting round of applause for Marek Dolezaj. That young man has sure taken a beating during his Syr tenure and he is one tenacious player. What a war horse.

Good luck to him!

One of my favorite parts of the game broadcast last night was the segment about Dolezaj talking about "toughness" and the first clip was him flopping for a charge call on Zion.

[Billy Dat]

A parting round of applause for Marek Dolezaj. That young man has sure taken a beating during his Syr tenure and he is one tenacious player. What a war horse.

Good luck to him!

I always have thought he looks like the Celtics head front office honcho

Dolejaz as Ainge.jpg

[jimsumner]

Minor quibble, but we only had three players smaller than Singler in 2010, so he never played C. Zoubek and the Plumlees took all the non-garbage-time minutes, with Kelly getting the garbage minutes. And Zoubek, the Plumlees, Thomas, and Kelly combined for an average of 78 mpg (accounting for DNPs). Add in Steve Johnson’s 24 garbage-time minutes and you have just 56 total minutes (less than 1.5 mpg) at PF for Singler on the season. Those minutes probably happened early in the season when Mason was injured and Czyz was still playing.

Kelly actually played mostly at the 3 in 2010, a failed experiment that disappeared like an Edsel. Could not guard ACC wings.

Late in games, with the lead and the ball, Duke would go with Singler, Scheyer, Smith, Dawkins and Thomas, the better to maximize ball-handling and foul shooting, with the proviso that Thomas wasn't a top priority to either handle the ball or shoot foul shots.

And if circumstances allowed, Duke would get Plumlee or Zoubek back in on D ASAP.

Surely [Don't call me Shirley] you remember all the outrage when K went to the spread offense "too soon" during Singler's career.

[DukieInBrasil]

Mark Williams emergence has been awesome to watch. Notwithstanding the UVA game, his emergence on the defensive end especially corresponds well with our play over our current win streak. Mark's dRtg is the best on the team (interestingly, Jalen's was better), but it's complemented with offensive efficiency as well. Felt like his cleanup buckets really kept our momentum going in the second half where SU could have closed the gap earlier. Really excited to see his further development. If he beefs up and works on his footwork, I feel like he can develop and Landlord-like game in a Zoubek-like frame.

Mark is a fine player and i look forward to his development. The Landlord's game was great, but he was still a rather below-the-rim player despite being such a good shot-blocker and rebounder. I mean, he could dunk and all, but his prowess wasn't based on height+hops, rather on positioning and timing, and skill. Mark is taller, has more hops, and isn't as beefy. I'd be thrilled for Mark to achieve what The Landlord did. I'm not sure we'll ever see Mark in a Zoubek-like frame, but that would be amazing! Brian was (is) an enormous, broad-shouldered man, whereas Mark is much more slender, and narrow-gage at the shoulders. I think a bit more muscle would really expand what Mark can do on the court, but it might detract from a lot of what makes him special if he were to bulk up too much. But i do like to imagine Mark blocking shots like Shelden, grabbing rebounds like Zoubek, and dunking on fools like he already does!!!