MBB: Duke 85, Syracuse 71 Post-Game Thread

[devildeac]

williams it seems is beating Harry on the "working knees" count 2-0. Hate to see kids ultimately have promising careers stunted by bodies that couldn't hold up their end of the bargain. I mean, the only thing that stopped me from being zion williams was about 8" and 60 lbs of muscle.

Whoa, now fella, what about that 4" vertical you told me about at a tailgate 2-3 years ago?

(which is still better than my 2" leaping ability )

[mkirsh]

I have these inherent biases too. If our opponent shoots a three and all our guys are boxing out under the basket ball the ball bounces all the way out to the three point line and lands right into the hands of the other team, I don't consider that to be bad rebounding. If we play great defense and stay with our man and get a hand up in his face and he takes a tough fallaway shot but then makes it, I consider that to be good defense even though the analytics say we gave up a bucket. In theory these things should average out over time - if we always force our opponent to take bad shots then as a whole they should shoot a lower percentage. If we always box out then on paper we should be a better rebounding team. But within a single possession that is certainly not true, and even using a whole game as a sample I think the analytics can be skewed by one or two possessions going the "wrong" way.

Or we are just not looking at advanced enough stats. NBA front offices, with the benefits of sportsvu cameras, can tell if shots are closely contested or not and analyze rebounding position to try to eliminate some of the noise from stats (amongst countless other analyses). This is where the "eye test" and analytics can be symbiotic - if you are seeing things that the stats don't explain, it's possible to refine and advance the stats to more accurately capture the events on the court.

[uh_no]

Whoa, now fella, what about that 4" vertical you told me about at a tailgate 2-3 years ago?

(which is still better than my 2" leaping ability )

I need to start stocking up stuff now in preparation for ideally having a football season next time i'm in vermont I'll bring some things back and TRY not to drink them until the next home game.

[DukieInBrasil]

I disagree with this notion. NBA draft isn't all about stats. It's about measurables and potential as well.

For example, DJ Steward is 6'2" which means teams wouldn't want him playing the SG position. However, Steward's game is pretty much what you'd expect from a SG. So he'd likely need to stay in school to showcase PG skills or he'd need to have elite level skills at SG, which I don't currently see from him as a freshman. He's been a good shooter from 3 (but not great - 35%), and not a great defender and isn't overly strong nor overly athletic. If he were to enter the draft today, he'd likely go undrafted, or 2nd round at best IMO.


ESPN Draftnet has him at #80.
https://www.espn.com/nba/draft/besta...ion/ovr/page/4

is there something about 7 assists per game that doesn't suggest PG? The whole point of this line of posting was a what-f: If DJ Steward averaged 21 ppg and 7 apg for the rest of the season, would he get drafted in the 1st round? My view is that NBA scouts would find that hard to resist.

[FerryFor50]

is there something about 7 assists per game that doesn't suggest PG? The whole point of this line of posting was a what-f: If DJ Steward averaged 21 ppg and 7 apg for the rest of the season, would he get drafted in the 1st round? My view is that NBA scouts would find that hard to resist.

He has had ONE game with 7 assists. Against a zone defense. Where everyone was hitting threes. I'd call it an outlier.

His season average is 2.5. I suppose if he averages 7 assists and 21 points for the rest of the season, sure, he'd get first round consideration.

[Kedsy]

i certainly don't expect, though i can hope!, that aforementioned Freshmen produce said stats the rest of the way. As for whether i was joking and whether the NBA has left All-Americans off the draft board, i think that every team in the NBA would at least consider drafting any Fr. who averaged said stats over the last ~15 games of the season. I'm too lazy to look it up but i'd be willing to wager that un-drafted AAs were all Seniors, maybe a couple of Juniors.

Yes, to my knowledge, undrafted AAs were all upperclassmen, with the vast majority being seniors.

Despite that, I'm obviously not an NBA gm but I don't buy your premise here. Far as I can tell, Jeremy Roach has virtually no chance to get drafted this year, DJ Steward has a chance, but far from a lock and if it happened would almost certainly be mid- to late-second round. Mark Williams would possibly be drafted (2nd round or way-out-there long shot late first), but he'd have to spend two or three years in the G-League bulking up and proving himself. None of them are a good bet, no matter what happens the rest of the season.

Also, all three of them have achieved those stats for a grand total of one (1) consecutive game each. Last 15 games is not practically possible (and to even get close you'd need a fantastical series of events to occur; 5 games is much more likely than 15). Even if it was possible, to expect these three guys to suddenly turn probably their best collegiate game into their average game from here on out is highly improbable.

is there something about 7 assists per game that doesn't suggest PG? The whole point of this line of posting was a what-f: If DJ Steward averaged 21 ppg and 7 apg for the rest of the season, would he get drafted in the 1st round? My view is that NBA scouts would find that hard to resist.

NBA scouts would watch him and know he isn't a point guard. If your hypothetical is his game miraculously changes into a PG's game, then maybe but I still doubt it.

[DukieInBrasil]

Yes, to my knowledge, undrafted AAs were all upperclassmen, with the vast majority being seniors.

Despite that, I'm obviously not an NBA gm but I don't buy your premise here. Far as I can tell, Jeremy Roach has virtually no chance to get drafted this year, DJ Steward has a chance, but far from a lock and if it happened would almost certainly be mid- to late-second round. Mark Williams would possibly be drafted (2nd round or way-out-there long shot late first), but he'd have to spend two or three years in the G-League bulking up and proving himself. None of them are a good bet, no matter what happens the rest of the season.

Also, all three of them have achieved those stats for a grand total of one (1) consecutive game each. Last 15 games is not actually possible (and to even get close you'd need a fantastical series of events to occur). Even if it was, to expect these three guys to suddenly turn probably their best collegiate game into their average game from here on out is highly improbable.

that's the joy of playing "what-if". It is absolutely NOT an expectation, and at no point did i say it was an expectation, nor was i saying i expect them to get drafted. And yes it would be a fantastical series of events if all 3 of those guys averaged each of their best game's of the season for the rest of this year. That fantastical series of events could quite possibly put Duke in the National Championship game. But again, i'll reiterate, this IS just a fantasy, a game of what-if, as i've said since the beginning.

[peterjswift]

Even if it was possible, to expect these three guys to suddenly turn probably their best collegiate game into their average game from here on out is highly improbable.

So you're saying there's a chance...

[throatybeard]

K said back in October that he had never really had anyone exactly like Williams. Maybe he was on to something.

Ding ding ding.

Here's what most of these comparisons sound like.

AliBrakes.jpg


MathisPepsi.jpg

[uh_no]

Ding ding ding.

Here's what most of these comparisons sound like.

it wouldn't be DBR without insisting on making borderline nonsensical comparisons for every player on the team. I, myself, view him as more of a bulked up liberace.

[throatybeard]

it wouldn't be DBR without insisting on making borderline nonsensical comparisons for every player on the team. I, myself, view him as more of a bulked up liberace.

On visuals, I've been fed "young Samuel Ramey" by opera people. I'm Facebook friends with Sam but haven't asked him who's gonna play him in his biopic, and moreover, I couldn't carry a tune in a Trapper Keeper.

You could probably construct a game here where you made ludicrous bilateral comparisons just for the sport of seeing how far you could push it and still get people to engage with the comparison as if you actually meant it. There's a breaking point, beyond which Tyler Thornton/Martin Nessley stands, but you could squeeze in a lot of absurd stuff before that.

I wish we could let these guys be themselves.

[kako]

Maybe a better comp is DeAndre Jordan. McGee doesn't have a great basketball IQ. Mark does and shows a real knack for passing.

I think McGee got a bad rep because he played for poorly coached teams like the Wizards and Nuggets (coach was Brian Shaw). Then Shaq made him a joke to get ratings. GSW and LAL proved that if you give McGee a clear role and play him appropriately, he's worth guaranteed contracts. But Jordan is not a terrible comparison. He's bulkier, though. And just on pure stats, Williams is a better FT shooter (though that's not saying a lot!).

9F

[BlueDevilStop]

How about the combined stat line between Roach and Steward?

35 points on 13-24 FG (8-16 from three), 7rb, 14 assists

If this backcourt stays together for another year I would be pretty excited. And let's not forget Goldwire's 2/3 from 3 (taking them only when left wide open), 4 assists, and his usual excellent D including 2 steals.

They were incredible last night. Loved seeing Steward dish out seen assists.

[BlueDevilStop]

They were incredible last night. Loved seeing Steward dish out seen assists.

*Seven

[devildeac]

I need to start stocking up stuff now in preparation for ideally having a football season next time i'm in vermont I'll bring some things back and TRY not to drink them until the next home game.

If they're IPAs/IIPAs from The Alchemist or Lawson's Finest Liquids, or similar items from Trillium or Tree House in Massachusetts, you'd darn well better drink them fresh and then give us a report. As you likely know already, those styles have shelf lives of ~90 days or less.

[brevity]

They were incredible last night. Loved seeing Steward dish out seen assists.

*Seven

Oh, seven assists. I thought you were distinguishing "seen assists" from "no-look passes".

[House P]

Duke had five players with at least four assists. A few weeks ago the entire team didn't always hit double figures.

And remember when on offense the ball would just sit in the hands of one or more players during a possession. In the last several games the ball has been whipping around, with purpose. Reminds me of how the top NBA teams do it [of course, not at that level]. Really fun to watch.

%assisted: 79.4% (our highest assist% of the season; perhaps in some way all those assists made up for all those turnovers)

No doubt the Duke's passing looked much improved last night and I hope this continues.

One thing to keep in mind is that the zone usually results in a higher than normal number of assists for Syracuse's opponents. In fact, Syracuse's opponents have the 4th highest percentage of field goals which were assisted (68.4%) in the country.

Even still, Duke's %assisted rate of 79.4% is above the season average for Syracuse's opponents. Duke also had a higher %assist rate vs UVA and NC State than each team's typical opponent, so the eye test seems to match the advanced stats.

FWIW, Texas is at the other end of the spectrum from Syracuse. Only 35.1% of field goals made by Texas' opponents have been assisted.

[uh_no]

If they're IPAs/IIPAs from The Alchemist or Lawson's Finest Liquids, or similar items from Trillium or Tree House in Massachusetts, you'd darn well better drink them fresh and then give us a report. As you likely know already, those styles have shelf lives of ~90 days or less.

I visited alchemist last time I was there and went through a couple cases of heady topper

[devildeac]

I visited alchemist last time I was there and went through a couple cases of heady topper

I'm shocked they sold you that much Heady (assuming you had an out of state license and spoke with a Derm accent).

[uh_no]

I'm shocked they sold you that much Heady (assuming you had an out of state license and spoke with a Derm accent).

my sister lives about 10 minutes away