Duke's NCAA Tourney Chances

[Acymetric]

-Jason "and even if they go 3-2 against those teams, they would be 9-11 in conference play. The Big Ten is deep and strong... but 2 games under .500 is a lot to ask from the selection committee" Evans

Teams do make the tournament with sub-.500 conference records fairly regularly. There were 5 such teams in 2018 (looking only at at-large berths). No reason MSU couldn't be another one, if they pick up some quality wins down the stretch.

[scottdude8]

There isn't a tougher closing stretch in the country than MSU... Ohio State and 2 games with Michigan is 3 games against potential #1 seeds. Their other 2 games are at Maryland and hosting Indiana, a pair of teams sitting squarely on the bubble. Go 3-2 against that group and you deserve to make the tourney. Good luck with that, Izzo.

-Jason "and even if they go 3-2 against those teams, they would be 9-11 in conference play. The Big Ten is deep and strong... but 2 games under .500 is a lot to ask from the selection committee" Evans

My thoughts exactly (re the bolded portion). I recall off and on discussions over the years about making being above .500 in conference play a requirement for an at-large bid (often spurred by the desire to get more mid-majors at-large bids). MSU could be a case-study in that conundrum. Now, if they finish 7-9 but ahead of Indiana, Minnesota, and Maryland, then they have a stronger argument, as they'd be 8th place in the best conference in the country. So I think they not only need to finish at least 3-2, but get significant help elsewhere. That scenario might end up being a net positive for Duke, because it would involve those three non-MSU schools faltering so badly down the stretch that they'd likely be playing themselves out of the tourney. MSU would potentially be taking one of their spots, not ours, I think.

Perfect scenario: MSU loses to OSU and Michigan x2 but beats Indiana and Minnesota, keeping them a very long shot for a bid but likely in the NET Top 75, while also doing damage to two other bubble teams. As I said in my front page post, the fate of the B1G bubble teams is one worth watching closely as it has the highest potential of opening up slots for us, IMHO.

[gofurman]

So Clemson is now ranked 33. Notre Dame about 70 and UVA about 15. That means all three (Clemson and UVA at home) and top 75 ND on road should now be Q1 wins. Right? Top 35 at home. Top 75 on road.

But our NET says we still have only 2 Q1 wins?

Edit- it’s top 30 at home. We need to pull for Clemson to get top 30

[jimsumner]

So Clemson is now ranked 33. Notre Dame about 70 and UVA about 15. That means all three (Clemson and UVA at home) and top 75 ND on road should now be Q1 wins. Right? Top 35 at home. Top 75 on road.

But our NET says we still have only 2 Q1 wins?

Edit- it’s top 30 at home. We need to pull for Clemson to get top 30

Let's Go Tigers (clap-clap-clap-clap).

Let's Go Tigers (clap-clap-clap-clap).

[UrinalCake]

Apparently the RPI still exists and has us all the way down at 98. Our SOS is 74 despite the fact that those three OOC cupcakes were canceled. Someone will have to explain that to me.

[scottdude8]

Apparently the RPI still exists and has us all the way down at 98. Our SOS is 74 despite the fact that those three OOC cupcakes were canceled. Someone will have to explain that to me.

The RPI “exists” only in the sense that it’s an easy mathematical formula that anyone can implement if they so choose. It has no bearing on the selection committee anymore.

[House P]

Apparently the RPI still exists and has us all the way down at 98. Our SOS is 74 despite the fact that those three OOC cupcakes were canceled. Someone will have to explain that to me.

As ScottDude points out, the RPI is no longer relevant for tourney selection. The numbers you report are a big part of the reason why.

FWIW, the RPI is basically a measure of a) a team's winning percentage and b) their opponent's winning percentage. The best way to game the RPI was to schedule home games vs relatively weak teams who are likely to finish at the of weak conferences. That way, your team picks up an easy win (good for part 'a') by beating a team which will end up with a high winning percentage (good for part 'b') after they beat even worse teams in their weak conference. For example, a team would get more 'credit' in the RPI this year by beating 16-3 Southern Utah (KenPom rank 186) than they would for beating 11-8 Duke (KenPom rank 30).

Duke used to schedule several non-conference games against top teams from small conferences. IIRC the official reason was that Coach K wanted his team to go up against the type of experienced teams they might face in the 1st round of the tournament. But I suspect it wasn't entirely a coincidence that these types of teams also stand to improve your RPI.

I also suspect that the ability to game the RPI is a big reason why the full details of the NET formula are secret.

[UrinalCake]

Makes sense. I thought the RPI was still one of the six metrics represented on the selection committee’s team sheets, but I must be mistaken.

[Bluedog]

Makes sense. I thought the RPI was still one of the six metrics represented on the selection committee’s team sheets, but I must be mistaken.

They list BPI, POM, and SAG rankings, but not RPI. Check this article for more details including a sample team sheet:
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-explaining-the-team-sheets-the-selection-committee-uses-to-compare-ncaa-tournament-resumes/

Most important
Games by quadrant, listing results and upcoming games
Records by quadrant, away and neutral
Non-Conference Strength of Schedule (SOS)
Overall SOS
Overall road and neutral records
Non-Division I losses

Some value
Average NET win and loss
Overall record
Non-Conference record, road record

Not nothing, but not very important
NET and other computer rankings
Overall home records, non-conference and by quadrant
Game scoring margins

Not criteria
Conference records and standings
AP Top 25, Coaches Poll
Tournament history

[-jk]

They list BPI, POM, and SAG rankings, but not RPI. Check this article for more details including a sample team sheet:
https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...ament-resumes/

Most important
Games by quadrant, listing results and upcoming games
Records by quadrant, away and neutral
Non-Conference Strength of Schedule (SOS)
Overall SOS
Overall road and neutral records
Non-Division I losses

Some value
Average NET win and loss
Overall record
Non-Conference record, road record

Not nothing, but not very important
NET and other computer rankings
Overall home records, non-conference and by quadrant
Game scoring margins

Not criteria
Conference records and standings
AP Top 25, Coaches Poll
Tournament history

You forgot the unspoken "TV Ratings" which permeates the process. Or so everyone believes.

-jk

[johnb]

According to Kentucky radio, the ncaa may have found a way not only for us to backdoor into the tournament but also to get us a marquee early matchup...

https://kentuckysportsradio.com/bask...he-tournament/

[MarkD83]

According to Kentucky radio, the ncaa may have found a way not only for us to backdoor into the tournament but also to get us a marquee early matchup...

https://kentuckysportsradio.com/bask...he-tournament/

The best statement from the article is...."Now let’s put on our tinfoil conspiracy hats. We’ll use Duke as the example again because Duke." I thought they always wore their tinfoil hats.

[weezie]

"We’ll use Duke as the example again because Duke."

Right. And anyone who hasn't ventured to guess the zags bracket needs to look at themselves in the mirror and try harder. Make it happen Devils!

[budwom]

Time for sports cliche' number eight, "we control our own destiny." I have more of these available on demand.

[revmel53]

According to Kentucky radio, the ncaa may have found a way not only for us to backdoor into the tournament but also to get us a marquee early matchup...

https://kentuckysportsradio.com/bask...he-tournament/

"The new rule is the Duke rule." Hilarious and ridiculous.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

According to Kentucky radio, the ncaa may have found a way not only for us to backdoor into the tournament but also to get us a marquee early matchup...

https://kentuckysportsradio.com/bask...he-tournament/

That's just dumb. If we are an 11 seed that gets "bumped" to play a one seed and we beat Gonzaga - kudos to us.

[UrinalCake]

I didn’t read the link all the way through but they seem to be confusing the last four in at-large play-in games with the last four automatic bid play-in games. If we got in as an alternate we wouldn’t be a 16 seed.

[House P]

According to Kentucky radio, the ncaa may have found a way not only for us to backdoor into the tournament but also to get us a marquee early matchup...

https://kentuckysportsradio.com/bask...he-tournament/

As is the case with a lot of conspiracy theories, the proponents- in this case KentuckySportsRadio- seem to misunderstand or ignore readily available facts which completely dispel the most outrageous elements of their "conspiracy". Take the following statement from the article describing a scenario where Duke is the first-team-out/first-replacement-team.

"So let’s say you’re our friends down at Alabama and you’re given a No. 2 seed in the tournament, as ESPN’s Bracketology currently projects. Your opponent is the No. 15 seed in your region, currently James Madison or whatever team earns the Colonial Athletic Association’s automatic bid.

But, oh no, James Madison’s starting point guard and social media manager flunked a rapid test on the way out of Harrisonburg, Virginia. Now you have to play Duke, one of the hottest teams in the country right now, in the first round? It seems incredibly unfair, but it’s the policy. We could have a 15-seed Duke or even a 16-seed Duke in the play-in game to meet Gonzaga in the first round. What a world."

What a world, indeed!

However, the real world is not so interesting. The first-four-out replacement teams will only be eligible to replace teams from multi-bid leagues. Ineligible teams from one-bid leagues will be replaced by another team from their conference. So, if James Madison is unable to play because "the receptionist at your hotel tested positive" or "the pilot on your team flight was a false negative", they will be replaced by a team from the Colonial Athletic Conference. The NCAA won't get "a 16-seed Duke in the play-in game to meet Gonzaga in the first round".

That being said, unless I am misunderstanding something, the following "conspiracy" is theoretically possible. Because replacement teams will inherit the seed of the team they replace, it is theoretically possible the first-team-out to replace a highly seeded team and inherit their seed.

So, I guess what I am saying is that Duke isn't out of the running for a 1 seed this year! Talk about a good conspiracy!

[scottdude8]

Bringing the discussion back around, there were more good results for us last night. Stanford lost to Oregon, which I would imagine pushes the Cardinal below us on the bubble. Boise State, another team technically on the bubble but feeling reasonably safe (projected a 10 seed on BracketMatrix), lost against San Diego State in what would've likely been a bid-securing victory given SDSU's status. And perhaps best, Minnesota's slide continued, falling to Northwestern at home... that's another bubble team that likely now falls below the Blue Devils.

It wasn't all great, especially for those who think MSU can put a run together and sneak into the tourney... they beat Ohio State thanks to (to me eyes) some questionable reffing towards the end of the game. Over the last two contests MSU has had to defend much bigger and stronger post players and has seemed to adopt a strategy of "let's hack the living daylights out of them and hope the refs swallow their whistles", which they seem to have been doing. Makes me nervous about Michigan's matchup with the Spartans, as the paint may turn into the octagon as MSU tried to defend Hunter Dickinson.

Long story short, with the results of the past three days I feel pretty confident in saying that a win over Louisville tomorrow puts us back into the projected tournament field according to most "experts".

[throatybeard]

Bringing the discussion back around, there were more good results for us last night. Stanford lost to Oregon, which I would imagine pushes the Cardinal below us on the bubble. Boise State, another team technically on the bubble but feeling reasonably safe (projected a 10 seed on BracketMatrix), lost against San Diego State in what would've likely been a bid-securing victory given SDSU's status. And perhaps best, Minnesota's slide continued, falling to Northwestern at home... that's another bubble team that likely now falls below the Blue Devils.

It wasn't all great, especially for those who think MSU can put a run together and sneak into the tourney... they beat Ohio State thanks to (to me eyes) some questionable reffing towards the end of the game. Over the last two contests MSU has had to defend much bigger and stronger post players and has seemed to adopt a strategy of "let's hack the living daylights out of them and hope the refs swallow their whistles", which they seem to have been doing. Makes me nervous about Michigan's matchup with the Spartans, as the paint may turn into the octagon as MSU tried to defend Hunter Dickinson.

Long story short, with the results of the past three days I feel pretty confident in saying that a win over Louisville tomorrow puts us back into the projected tournament field according to most "experts".

This week has gone verrrrry well for us when we weren't playing. (And when we were).