Duke's NCAA Tourney Chances

[Rich]

I'm sorry, I'm used to this board complaining about our seed or our path. Not used to used to us sweating being in the field.

Not directed at Mtn Devil, but it kinda puts things in perspective, doesn't it? The next time we're complaining of being a 2 seed instead of a 1 seed we can look back here and see how fortunate we actually are.

[uh_no]

Is there anyone else whose eyes glaze over when hearing the details of Q-1, Q-2 wins, RPI, NET, etc.? I change the channel when Joe Lunardi appears with his latest breathless Next 4 Out which he treats as a bombshell.

Just win, baby.

it would be nice if joe lunardi weren't so generally wrong about who gets in on the bubble.

[Duke79UNLV77]

Duke's last 3 opponents are now coming off good wins, with 2 of the 3 games on the road. We and FSU have been the hottest teams in the conference, but we can't get satisfied and need to keep the proverbial pedal to the metal.

[throatybeard]

This is the way.

It's a whole lot of bellyaching and nervous energy over all the things we can't control.

Keep winning and things will work out.

And don't let Jay Bilas harsh your buzz.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

And don't let Jay Bilas harsh your buzz.

Perhaps this season will make us all Zen Masters.

[throatybeard]

it would be nice if joe lunardi weren't so generally wrong about who gets in on the bubble.

Is he? I haven't taken note year by year, but was vaguely under the impression that he averages about one missed team a year.

[JasonEvans]

Bracket Matrix tracked 49 new brackets yesterday. Duke was included in the field in 15 of them (including one person who had us as high as a #9 seed). In the overall aggregate of the 120 brackets tracked, we are currently the 3rd team from making the field, just behind Wichita St and Stanford.

Louisville is a #10 and Ga Tech is 6th among the teams on the bubble and missing the tourney. So, the teams we are playing this next week see the game as a must win just as much as we do. These are desperate times...

[CDu]

Is he? I haven't taken note year by year, but was vaguely under the impression that he averages about one missed team a year.

Yeah, he's missed a bit more recently than he did in his early days. But it's not a lot. Probably an average of like 2-3 per year. Of course, the number of true bubble teams is small, so it's not like he has this incredibly high hit rate. He was always overrated because you know about about 60 (now about 60-65) of the 64 (now 68) every year. So at his best, he was hitting at like a 90% rate (assuming about as many bubble teams miss as make it). And more recently, he's done more like 50-60%.

Basically, he's able to get the general landscape right. So the fact that he has us on the radar means we're likely on the radar. But in terms of getting specifically right which teams are in, he's nothing special.

[uh_no]

Is he? I haven't taken note year by year, but was vaguely under the impression that he averages about one missed team a year.

if there were a big-dance for bracketologists, joe lunardi would not be in the field:
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

turns out most of the teams are autobids, leaving only 32 at large. about 25 of them are effectively locks, and now you probably have maybe 10 viable teams for the last 7 spots. A random number generator would only miss about 1-2.

So the part that lunardi is "good" at is in reality, pretty easy...and the hard part, he is mediocre relative to many of his peers.

It's like saying baseball umps get 99% of calls right...but 98% of calls aren't close, and the close ones are a coin flip.

[throatybeard]

if there were a big-dance for bracketologists, joe lunardi would not be in the field:

🤣🤣🤣🤣

"Sorry Joe, you're in the next four out"

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Is he? I haven't taken note year by year, but was vaguely under the impression that he averages about one missed team a year.

Trust me, you and I could do as well as he does. It's not a magic spell to plug in conference champions, obvious at large teams, and then spin the wheel on who's jockeying for the last spots. He has some sort of mystical hoo-doo over ESPN where they think he's a savant.

As far as the midseason brackets go - it's all hypothetical jabber anyway. If he had left Duke in the field the entire month of January would he be "wrong?" No, because there is no wrong. It's nothing but mental, uh, exercise.

[duke2x]

We are #48 in the NET rankings as of 2/23. I'd like to get up to #38 to breathe easier, and we have the opportunity to get there.

[scottdude8]

Another good night scoreboard watching. Clemson winning keeps that win looking good. NC State beating UVA leaves open the possibility they could creep up and give us another Q1. And, of course, UNC gets embarrassed.

Two good nights in a row for the stuff out of our control.

[scottdude8]

Another good night scoreboard watching. Clemson winning keeps that win looking good. NC State beating UVA leaves open the possibility they could creep up and give us another Q1. And, of course, UNC gets embarrassed.

Two good nights in a row for the stuff out of our control.

One more bonus: looks like Indiana is going to fall to Rutgers. That will put the Hoosiers in a very precarious position. And that’s good for us.

[scottdude8]

One more bonus: looks like Indiana is going to fall to Rutgers. That will put the Hoosiers in a very precarious position. And that’s good for us.

Another one to watch: Xavier is down to Providence right now. Another bubble team ahead of us where a loss would help.

[DukieTiger]

Another good night scoreboard watching. Clemson winning keeps that win looking good. NC State beating UVA leaves open the possibility they could creep up and give us another Q1. And, of course, UNC gets embarrassed.

Two good nights in a row for the stuff out of our control.

NCST did indeed jump into Quad 1 territory and, not sure if I saw it noted, Michigan State is no longer (for the moment) a Q3 loss. Pretty good few days for Duke.

ETA: Both GT and Clemson have outside shots at becoming Q1 wins if things break right, too.

[duketaylor]

most every team we needed to lose did, and teams we beat had good wins. Being 3 games over .500 in conference looks alot better than a 7-9 IU in conference record IMO, especially when we've won 4 in a row. Recency should mean even more this year with a shortened/non-existent pre-season/exhibition game schedule. The NET rankings should reflect this in the next few days I would think. Not sure how often they update. I have a feeling the rankings and ratings are going to change a fair amount in the next week. I'm pretty sure 'Bama, #6, lost tonight. Yep, lost by 15 at Arkie.

[UrinalCake]

NCST did indeed jump into Quad 1 territory and, not sure if I saw it noted, Michigan State is no longer (for the moment) a Q3 loss. Pretty good few days for Duke.

ETA: Both GT and Clemson have outside shots at becoming Q1 wins if things break right, too.

That certainly helps us because the two Q3 losses on our record (including Miami) were a real thorn in our side. The flip side is that MSU themselves have made their way onto the bubble and thus are one of the teams we are fighting against. And they have a head to head victory over us in Cameron, which isn't supposed to matter to the Selection Committee but in reality probably does.

They have a brutal schedule ahead which I think works out in our favor - losing to really good teams won't drop them back into Q3 territory, but does keep them off the bubble in the eyes of the selection committee.

[scottdude8]

That certainly helps us because the two Q3 losses on our record (including Miami) were a real thorn in our side. The flip side is that MSU themselves have made their way onto the bubble and thus are one of the teams we are fighting against. And they have a head to head victory over us in Cameron, which isn't supposed to matter to the Selection Committee but in reality probably does.

They have a brutal schedule ahead which I think works out in our favor - losing to really good teams won't drop them back into Q3 territory, but does keep them off the bubble in the eyes of the selection committee.

As I mentioned previously, I think MSU is a VERY long shot to make it into the tourney. Right now, only a single projection on BracketMatrix has them in the field (in contrast, 23 have us in). Perhaps more onerous for Michigan State is where they stand in the Big Ten: they're currently tenth, and bunched up with fellow bubble teams Minnesota, Indiana, and Maryland. As good as the B1G is this year, I think 10 teams in the field is still unlikely, meaning not only does MSU have to do well down the stretch, they also probably have to do objectively better than some, if not all, of the fellow B1G bubble squads. They'd likely have to go at least 3-2 in their next five (which would necessarily include a victory over Ohio State or Michigan), AND hope that their competition falters so that they're somewhere closer to 8th in the conference standings rather than 10th.

Is it possible? Sure... people left us for dead, after all. But I think it's much more likely that MSU squeezes into the Top 75 of the NET but stays far away from stealing one of our bubble spots then them doing so well that they challenge us for a bid.

[JasonEvans]

As I mentioned previously, I think MSU is a VERY long shot to make it into the tourney. Right now, only a single projection on BracketMatrix has them in the field (in contrast, 23 have us in). Perhaps more onerous for Michigan State is where they stand in the Big Ten: they're currently tenth, and bunched up with fellow bubble teams Minnesota, Indiana, and Maryland. As good as the B1G is this year, I think 10 teams in the field is still unlikely, meaning not only does MSU have to do well down the stretch, they also probably have to do objectively better than some, if not all, of the fellow B1G bubble squads. They'd likely have to go at least 3-2 in their next five (which would necessarily include a victory over Ohio State or Michigan), AND hope that their competition falters so that they're somewhere closer to 8th in the conference standings rather than 10th.

Is it possible? Sure... people left us for dead, after all. But I think it's much more likely that MSU squeezes into the Top 75 of the NET but stays far away from stealing one of our bubble spots then them doing so well that they challenge us for a bid.

There isn't a tougher closing stretch in the country than MSU... Ohio State and 2 games with Michigan is 3 games against potential #1 seeds. Their other 2 games are at Maryland and hosting Indiana, a pair of teams sitting squarely on the bubble. Go 3-2 against that group and you deserve to make the tourney. Good luck with that, Izzo.

-Jason "and even if they go 3-2 against those teams, they would be 9-11 in conference play. The Big Ten is deep and strong... but 2 games under .500 is a lot to ask from the selection committee" Evans