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  1. #81
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by jipops View Post
    Iíll admit I wrote this team off after Miami. I think itís realistic we go 2-1 in these last 3. Only 3 times in the last 30 years has a Duke team finished the regular season on a 7+ game win streak. So the odds seem very remote this team will be the 4th. But it may not need to. That would put us at 13-9 but 11-7 in the conference which seems not too shabby for tourney considerations. But less than that and I think weíre out.
    Yeah, the Louisville game feels a bit like a must-win. We very likely need two more regular season wins to feel good about our at-large chances, and we donít want to have to go through two road teams to get those two wins.

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by jipops View Post
    Only 3 times in the last 30 years has a Duke team finished the regular season on a 7+ game win streak.
    Some pretty good teams, too: 1997-98; 1998-99; 2014-15. Also 1985-86, but that wasn't in the last 30 years.


    (Did I get that right, jipops?)

  3. #83
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by Stray Gator View Post
    Not to tempt fate by looking too far ahead, but just to note the potential irony . . . if he's able to transform this squad from what appeared to be a bouncing band of freewheelers into a feared tourney contender after all but the most stout-hearted or starry-eyed had given up hope for the season, will K finally receive serious consideration for that elusive National Coach of the Year award?
    When do they vote on it? (I don't know). Like you know how the MLB awards are regular season awards.

  4. #84
    A team that was ranked in the preseason top 10 and finishes unranked isn't going to have its coach get a single national COY vote, much less win.

    Not saying the award should be "team that beats preseason expectations the most", but that's what it is.

  5. #85
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Some pretty good teams, too: 1997-98; 1998-99; 2014-15. Also 1985-86, but that wasn't in the last 30 years.


    (Did I get that right, jipops?)
    I guess 1962-63's 15-game streak at the end of the regular season was too long ago to count, even with the jerseys in the rafters. Plus, five more in the tournaments.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  6. #86
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yeah, the Louisville game feels a bit like a must-win. We very likely need two more regular season wins to feel good about our at-large chances, and we donít want to have to go through two road teams to get those two wins.
    Yea and UNC has yet to lose at home.

  7. #87
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    When do they vote on it? (I don't know). Like you know how the MLB awards are regular season awards.
    Coach K has grabbed the gold ring three times in the Olympics and five times in the NCAA's. I can hardly imagine what would get him a COY award in either the NCAA or the ACC.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  8. #88
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Some pretty good teams, too: 1997-98; 1998-99; 2014-15. Also 1985-86, but that wasn't in the last 30 years.


    (Did I get that right, jipops?)
    Sho nuff.

  9. #89
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Coach K has grabbed the gold ring three times in the Olympics and five times in the NCAA's. I can hardly imagine what would get him a COY award in either the NCAA or the ACC.
    An undefeated team of walk-ons.

  10. #90
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Our resume is about to get a little better qualitatively. MSU (#81 in NET) is thumping Illinois, which should push them out of Q3 loss territory for us. Obviously it devalues our Illinois loss, but that one is still a Q1 loss anyway.

  11. #91
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Not that it means much, but I would say that this team in its current state is better than a number of past Duke teams that have made the tournament. Off the top of my head:

    Ď96
    Ď07
    Ď16

    Was tempted to say Ď12 but I still think they beat this team.

    Ď84 ? Nah

  12. #92
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    Toronto
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Our resume is about to get a little better qualitatively. MSU (#81 in NET) is thumping Illinois, which should push them out of Q3 loss territory for us. Obviously it devalues our Illinois loss, but that one is still a Q1 loss anyway.
    Also in good news tonight, GT beats VT. Looking more and more likely that our home GT win will be Q2 and our road game next week will be Q1.

  13. #93
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
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    Kansas City
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Our resume is about to get a little better qualitatively. MSU (#81 in NET) is thumping Illinois, which should push them out of Q3 loss territory for us. Obviously it devalues our Illinois loss, but that one is still a Q1 loss anyway.
    Jerry Palm has been saying that MSU has a better resume than Duke, so this unfortunately strengthens their chances as well.

    I'm not sure if Jerry Palm's opinion is any better the Lunardi's.

  14. #94
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by hibby91 View Post
    Jerry Palm has been saying that MSU has a better resume than Duke, so this unfortunately strengthens their chances as well.

    I'm not sure if Jerry Palm's opinion is any better the Lunardi's.
    Yeah, I don’t see it. They are notably worse in all of the metrics (NET, RPI, KenPom), they are well under .500 in conference, their Q1 record is way worse. They have a win over us in 2020, but just the one game doesn’t make a resume. And despite having 11 Q1 games, tonight was their first win over a surefire tourney team. We have 2 of those in UVa and Clemson, and a way better record in Q1 games (2-3 vs 3-8).

    We also have an easier remaining schedule, so even if it is close I think they aren’t a threat.

  15. #95
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by jipops View Post
    Not that it means much, but I would say that this team in its current state is better than a number of past Duke teams that have made the tournament. Off the top of my head:

    Ď96
    Ď07
    Ď16

    Was tempted to say Ď12 but I still think they beat this team.

    Ď84 ? Nah
    I donít think this team is better than our 2016 team. I do think it is better than the 1996 and 2007 tourney teams.

  16. #96
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, Va
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    True...so close each of those games... I guess on the other side, we had close wins vs BC (although were up that entire game) and Ga Tech. I think Ga Tech is legit the only competitive game that we've won (i.e. anybody's game with like 2 minutes to go). All the other "competitive games down the stretch" we've lost. And the rest of our wins were comfortable. And I feel like the only two "non-competitive" losses were IL and MSU, but perhaps I'm forgetting one or two...
    Never heard the committee talk about competitive losses or close games. Just wins or losses. Or comfortable wins. We're 3 games above .500 in the conference standings, and lost OOC to MSU and to Illinois. We should be in. period!

  17. #97
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by duketaylor View Post
    Never heard the committee talk about competitive losses or close games. Just wins or losses. Or comfortable wins. We're 3 games above .500 in the conference standings, and lost OOC to MSU and to Illinois. We should be in. period!
    I know they got a nice win tonight, but Michigan State is still a team that is 3 games below .500 and in 10th place in their own conference. And we lost to them at home. That loss, which I believe (could be wrong) is a Q3 loss, is hurting our profile significantly. Unless they can string together a number of like performances to tonight's down the stretch and beat much of a difficult closing schedule, their NCAAT chances are on life support.

  18. #98
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC
    Is there anyone else whose eyes glaze over when hearing the details of Q-1, Q-2 wins, RPI, NET, etc.? I change the channel when Joe Lunardi appears with his latest breathless Next 4 Out which he treats as a bombshell.

    Just win, baby.

  19. #99
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Is there anyone else whose eyes glaze over when hearing the details of Q-1, Q-2 wins, RPI, NET, etc.? I change the channel when Joe Lunardi appears with his latest breathless Next 4 Out which he treats as a bombshell.

    Just win, baby.
    This is the way.

    It's a whole lot of bellyaching and nervous energy over all the things we can't control.

    Keep winning and things will work out.

  20. #100
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Is there anyone else whose eyes glaze over when hearing the details of Q-1, Q-2 wins, RPI, NET, etc.? I change the channel when Joe Lunardi appears with his latest breathless Next 4 Out which he treats as a bombshell.

    Just win, baby.
    Totally agree. I am by nature a quantitatively oriented person but all of this analysis is worthless to me. Control what you can control. I despise Lunardi and change the channel whenever he comes on as he adds zero value to my life. I generally find political polling to also be largely pointless but at least campaigns can theoretically use the information to determine messaging and allocate resources. Lunardi's predictions do nothing, and he is never held remotely accountable for his performance. And even if he is wrong, so what?

    With all of the cancelled games and other factors, the committee is going to have a very difficult job to do this year. Since it might be close for Duke this year, we can be grateful that the Ivy League cancelled its season, as I assume that opens up one additional at large slot.

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