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  1. #61
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by kidA View Post
    If someone offered us a last four in bid last week, would you take it? I sure would, and would right now too. Now if we win out in the regular season, win a few in the ACCT, then maybe my hopes and expectations will rise. But right now I’m just thrilled to be back in the conversation! And I’d love another shot at MSU, not so much Illinois though…
    I still would. I don't ahve any tournament expectations for this team (other than watching and cheering for them), so worrying about our seed and our path to whatever is not concerning. If something great happens, awesome. But our defense is still a ways away from my having higher aspirations. And if a play in game gives me another chance to watch this team improve? I'm all for it.
    1200. DDMF.

  2. #62
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is online now Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by kidA View Post
    I’m not exactly sure how it works, but I would love to see us play Michigan State in the play-in/1st four round. That is, unless we earn a true first round game. I have a feeling tho, that if we make the tournament, they’re going to “stick it to Duke” and put us in a play-in game, that way people (read haters) can’t complain that they just gave us a bid after this horrible season because we’re Duke. Anyway, so thrilled about the way the team is playing and so proud of how they’ve grown up and gotten really good. Let’s Go Duke!
    MSU has almost an infinitesimal chance at making the tourney. They're fourth from the bottom in the B1G and will likely be significant underdogs in each of their remaining 6 games, include against Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan (twice!). Yes, that's a lot of opportunities for quality wins, but it would probably take the Spartans going 4-2 in their last six to even get into the bubble conversation. That would be asking a LOT.
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  3. #63
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    I think it's more like, Duke has an expansive tournament history, and there are almost no teams we are likely to get bracketed with that won't serve as a narrative coathook for Duke fans to insist that the committee is purposely writing stories, when you project out to groups of four and eight teams. Someone we have a history with will always, always be there.

    This whole ratings argument doesn't convince me. It's zoomed in too far. From the fact that the NCAA would probably like to have some top names around late in the tournament, it does not necessarily follow that they're micromanaging second round and S16 matchups--that fail to materialize much of the time. They have so many things to worry about with conference mate-polarity and seeding that, when they prioritize that, they can't also go back in and then weed out matchups that fans are going to complain are over-writing the script. They don't put us in the same region as Kentucky sometimes because Christian Laettner hit a shot. Sometimes you just end up in a region with Kentucky. And a lot of the choices get made in the last few days, pending what happens in conference tournaments.

    We're not nearly as important as we think we are.

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  4. #64
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I think it's more like, Duke has an expansive tournament history, and there are almost no teams we are likely to get bracketed with that won't serve as a narrative coathook for Duke fans to insist that the committee is purposely writing stories, when you project out to groups of four and eight teams. Someone we have a history with will always, always be there.

    This whole ratings argument doesn't convince me. It's zoomed in too far. From the fact that the NCAA would probably like to have some top names around late in the tournament, it does not necessarily follow that they're micromanaging second round and S16 matchups--that fail to materialize much of the time. They have so many things to worry about with conference mate-polarity and seeding that, when they prioritize that, they can't also go back in and then weed out matchups that fans are going to complain are over-writing the script. They don't put us in the same region as Kentucky sometimes because Christian Laettner hit a shot. Sometimes you just end up in a region with Kentucky. And a lot of the choices get made in the last few days, pending what happens in conference tournaments.

    We're not nearly as important as we think we are.
    bingo. we have plenty of proof this regular season alone with how we've been slotted into non-ideal time slots and back onto ACCN instead of optioned onto the main ESPN.
    1200. DDMF.

  5. #65
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Yeah, I don't think we'll get in just because we're Duke. But I do think there is a good chance we win our next 2 games. And I think that will get us into the field barring a total collapse in the ACC Tournament.

  6. #66
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Watching carolina Go To HELL!
    Quote Originally Posted by Hartford Dukie View Post
    USA Today bracket has us in...first one I've seen

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ld/4553924001/
    This poll has us as a playin game vs. Minn., and then a 12 seed. Take the 12 over 5 every time!
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

    Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
    9F 9F 9F
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  7. #67
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    I moved. Now 12 miles from Heaven, 13 from Hell
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yeah, I don't think we'll get in just because we're Duke. But I do think there is a good chance we win our next 2 games. And I think that will get us into the field barring a total collapse in the ACC Tournament.
    Correction: next THREE games!

  8. #68
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DU82 View Post
    Correction: next THREE games!
    I place no estimate of chances in a Duke/UNC game. But thankfully I think we have a reasonably good chance of not needing to win that game to get in.

    Of course, winning that game is always preferable.

  9. #69
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    New York
    Knowing the financial bath the NCAA took last year without a men's basketball tournament, it is probably in their best interest in putting on this year's tournament to have some early spicy matchups to raise fan's interest.

    So after taking a look at the KenPom, Sagarin and NET, why do I think the committee will try to have a Duke-Maryland and/or Kentucky-Indiana first four game or early match up ?

  10. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yeah, I don't think we'll get in just because we're Duke. But I do think there is a good chance we win our next 2 games. And I think that will get us into the field barring a total collapse in the ACC Tournament.
    Not to tempt fate by looking too far ahead, but just to note the potential irony . . . if he's able to transform this squad from what appeared to be a bouncing band of freewheelers into a feared tourney contender after all but the most stout-hearted or starry-eyed had given up hope for the season, will K finally receive serious consideration for that elusive National Coach of the Year award?

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yeah, I don't think we'll get in just because we're Duke. But I do think there is a good chance we win our next 2 games. And I think that will get us into the field barring a total collapse in the ACC Tournament.
    We won't get in because we're Duke. But if we're a "Last Four In / First Four Out" kinda team, you gotta believe the NCAA will include Duke.

    The NCAA is hemorrhaging money. And they need the tournament. While Duke isn't going to solve all of their money problems, casting Duke as an underdog in the tournament is a great sell.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

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  12. #72
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by TywinBlue View Post
    Knowing the financial bath the NCAA took last year without a men's basketball tournament, it is probably in their best interest in putting on this year's tournament to have some early spicy matchups to raise fan's interest.

    So after taking a look at the KenPom, Sagarin and NET, why do I think the committee will try to have a Duke-Maryland and/or Kentucky-Indiana first four game or early match up ?
    The only way Coach Cal is attending the tourney this year is if he is broadcasting or watching from the stands.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  13. #73
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Santa Clara, CA
    Even if we beat Tech and Ville, I think if we lose to UNC in the final regular season game, and then lose our first game in the ACCT, we could be on the outside looking in... unless Carolina continue to win. Follow my logic here:

    Lunardi has the Heels as a #9 seed. So it's a bit of a pickle - root for UNC to continue to do well so that a loss to them wouldn't be so bad? Maybe if Carolina feels they are a lock for the tourney, and having beaten Duke once already, they won't feel the urgency (as much) to beat Duke. And for Duke, losing to a higher ranked opponent doesn't seem to kill your NET as much as losing to a lower one. And beating a higher NET-ranked UNC on the road would be better for Duke's NET. On the flip side, one could root for Carolina to lose, drop in the rankings, but make them more hungry and make the game a potential knock out game (at least for Duke)?... An unbiased observer would probably say that in order to benefit Duke, one should root for Carolina to win up to the Duke game. But who am I kidding? I can never root for Carolina, even if it benefits Duke. I remember the old joke: if Carolina and the Soviet Union played for control of the free world, half of North Carolina, including State fans, would root for the USSR and say, "I look good in red". Having grown up in Raleigh, I'd say the same thing.

    This is a long-winded way of saying 9F. Because you can never say that too much.

    9F
    I will never talk about That Game. GTHC.

  14. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by Stray Gator View Post
    Not to tempt fate by looking too far ahead, but just to note the potential irony . . . if he's able to transform this squad from what appeared to be a bouncing band of freewheelers into a feared tourney contender after all but the most stout-hearted or starry-eyed had given up hope for the season, will K finally receive serious consideration for that elusive National Coach of the Year award?
    Now that’s funny; if K couldn’t win AP coach of the year in 1986 (2 regular season losses and only 3 seasons removed from dregs of the earth) they certainly won’t give him consideration for a roller coaster season.

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by Stray Gator View Post
    Not to tempt fate by looking too far ahead, but just to note the potential irony . . . if he's able to transform this squad from what appeared to be a bouncing band of freewheelers into a feared tourney contender after all but the most stout-hearted or starry-eyed had given up hope for the season, will K finally receive serious consideration for that elusive National Coach of the Year award?
    From the Associated Press? Over Mark Few (his second) or Scott Drew (his first)? You're funny.

    Others who will finish ahead of Coach K in the AP Coach of the Year voting: Juwan Howard, Leonard Hamilton, Jay Wright, Andy Enfield, Tony Bennett (his third), Kelvin Sampson (his second), Bill Self (his third), Tom Izzo (his second, but first with a losing conference record), and Matt Doherty (his second, and he's not coaching).

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Is that all?
    I'm sorry, I'm used to this board complaining about our seed or our path. Not used to used to us sweating being in the field.

  17. #77
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by arnie View Post
    Now that’s funny; if K couldn’t win AP coach of the year in 1986 (2 regular season losses and only 3 seasons removed from dregs of the earth) they certainly won’t give him consideration for a roller coaster season.
    So, the AP is the big hold-out on honoring K:
    • 3× Naismith College Coach of the Year (1989, 1992, 1999)
    • NABC Coach of the Year (1991)
    • Clair Bee Coach of the Year (2004)
    • UPI Coach of the Year (1986)
    • 5× ACC Coach of the Year (1984, 1986, 1997, 1999, 2000)
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    From the Associated Press? Over Mark Few (his second) or Scott Drew (his first)? You're funny.

    Others who will finish ahead of Coach K in the AP Coach of the Year voting: Juwan Howard, Leonard Hamilton, Jay Wright, Andy Enfield, Tony Bennett (his third), Kelvin Sampson (his second), Bill Self (his third), Tom Izzo (his second, but first with a losing conference record), and Matt Doherty (his second, and he's not coaching).
    Well, the rationale we always heard in the past for the voters not considering K was that his teams were expected to be good, and the award should go to a coach who was able to mold and manage and motivate his team to exceed expectations. I would think that reviving a team that seemed to be going nowhere would qualify, too. In any event, IMO this turnaround should go down as one of K's best coaching performances.

  19. #79
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
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    Dur'm
    Quote Originally Posted by Stray Gator View Post
    In any event, IMO this turnaround should go down as one of K's best coaching performances.
    I agree, and how the Jalen Johnson situation was handled is a major reason why. His handling was very deft, and my best evidence for that is that nobody outside the program really even knows what actually happened and the team still got objectively better. I wonder how many coaches in the NCAA could have handled that as well as he did.

  20. #80
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    So, since I wrote the above, we are 3-0 with the win over UVA. Here is my only mildly revised prediction:

    • 3-0 in our final 3 games and Duke is in regardless of ACC tournament result
    • 2-1 in these final 3 games and I think we still make the NCAA tournament but an embarrassing ACCT loss would make me a little nervous
    • 1-2 in the last 3 and we will need to win a couple ACC tourney games (especially if we play another ACC bubble team)
    • 0-3 in the final 3 and we probably need to win the ACC tourney to have a shot. Very slim chance of getting in with a run to the ACC finals

    Louisville, Ga Tech, UNC... three of the teams we are battling for ACC position and NCAA bids so lots of opportunity for impressive wins (but not a single easy game and 2 games on the road). I think that if we win all three and make a nice run in the ACC tourney, we could even play our way up to like a 5 or a 6 seed.
    I’ll admit I wrote this team off after Miami. I think it’s realistic we go 2-1 in these last 3. Only 3 times in the last 30 years has a Duke team finished the regular season on a 7+ game win streak. So the odds seem very remote this team will be the 4th. But it may not need to. That would put us at 13-9 but 11-7 in the conference which seems not too shabby for tourney considerations. But less than that and I think we’re out.

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